Season Finale

October 3rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	R.Lopez vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.90%	66.55%	LAN 3-1
Padres	Giants	M.Latos vs J.Sanchez	Giants	TBD	52.46%	SF 3-0
Phillies	Braves	C.Hamels vs T.Hudson	Phillies	TBD	55.41%	ATL 8-7

Current ROI: 3.54%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/3	10/2	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23
1	Giants	62.91%	90.04%	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%
2	Padres	37.09%	9.96%	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	48.41%	83.97%	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	19.80%	11.04%	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	31.78%	5.00%	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

Operation Protect Draft Pick

October 2nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Saunders vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	61.09%	70.61%	LAN 3-2
Padres	Giants	T.Stauffer vs B.Zito	Giants	60.00%	59.96%	SD 4-2
Phillies	Braves	V.Worley vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.41%	62.34%	PHI 7-0

Current ROI: 2.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/2	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22
1	Giants	90.04%	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%
2	Padres	9.96%	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	83.97%	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	11.04%	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	5.00%	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

October Baseball

October 1st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	K.Kroenke vs J.Ely	Dodgers	59.84%	62.42%	ARI 7-5
Padres	Giants	C.Richard vs M.Cain	Giants	61.83%	58.07%	SD 6-4
Phillies	Braves	K.Kendrick vs B.Beachy	Braves	60.78%	48.80%	PHI 11-5

Current ROI: 2.44%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20
1	Giants	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%
2	Padres	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

.500 Still Attainable

September 30th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Cubs	Padres	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Garland	Padres	61.54%	50.01%	SD 1-0
DBacks	Giants	B.Enright vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	63.90%	70.41%	SF 4-1

Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19
1	Giants	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%
2	Padres	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

CTRL-ALT-DEL On Kershaw's Season

September 29th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Monasterios vs J.Chacin	Rockies	64.79%	71.95%	LAN 7-6
Cubs	Padres	R.Wells vs C.Young	Padres	58.85%	48.08%	SD 3-0
DBacks	Giants	I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum	Giants	66.10%	69.26%	SF 3-1
Marlins	Braves	A.Miller vs D.Lowe	Braves	68.75%	66.74%	ATL 5-1

Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18
1	Giants	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%
2	Padres	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

It's Not The End of the World As We Know It

and I feel fine! Yes, the Dodgers lost a tough extra inning game last night in the opening salvo vs the Roxies. The Roxies have cut the Dodgers lead in the NL West, which happens to be the smallest lead of any in the 6 MLB divisions, to just two games. All is not lost though, because there exists this mulligan on a season called the wild-card.

Yes, the Dodgers lead is down to two games, but their lead in the wild-card is six games, and it's over the Giants, not a team like the "red hot" Roxies. As I pointed out on a post over at Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers still have a great chance of making the playoffs. For the most part the playoffs are a crapshoot. All four teams should be pretty even for the most part, with home field advantage being the biggest seperator between the teams.

According to the site Sports Club Stats which is on the side-bar. The Dodgers break even point (50% chance of making the playoffs) is somewhere between 89 and 90 wins. A 16-20 record the rest of the way out would give the Dodgers a 90 win season.

Here are the breakdowns. Total wins, probability of making the playoffs.

< 85 ... 0%
85 ... 1%
86 ... 3%
87 ... 11%
88 ... 24%
89 ... 45%
90 ... 66%
91 ... 83%
92 ... 94% (.500 ball the rest of the season)
93 ... 98%
>93 ... 100%