Monday, May 18, 2009

Mets / Dodgers Series Preview

The NL East leading New York Mets and NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers get together for a three game series this week. The Dodgers playing the day after a cross country flight from Miami, where the Dodgers took two out of three games from the Marlins and four out of six on their brief east coast roadtrip. The Mets will be playing games 5,6 and 7 of a road trip where they have already beaten the Giants three out of four games, and after three games with the Dodgers will travel to Boston for three more. Let's take a look at how these two teams matchup and get to know the Dodgers opponent a little better.

Team Hitting Arm Range R Error R Overall Fielding SP RP Overall Pitching Team Total
Units RAR NL Rank NL Rank NL Rank UZR RAR RAR WAR WAR
Mets 22.6       -14.4 31.8 12.5 4.7 10.0
Dodgers 30.1       -8.8 40.0 11.5 5.4 12.4
Mets NL Rank 2nd 14th 13th 13th 15th 8th 4th 5th 3rd
Dodgers NL Rank 2nd 15th 12th 10th 14th 1st 6th 1st 1st


Top Three Mets Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Carlos Beltran +2.0
2. 3B-David Wright +1.7
3. SS-Jose Reyes +0.7

Top Three Mets Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Santana +2.2
2. J.Niese +0.5
3. *J.Maine +0.4

Top Three Mets Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. F.Rodriguez +0.4
2. B.Parnell +0.4
3. B.Stokes +0.3

Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.8
2. O.Hudson +1.4
3. M.Ramirez +1.3

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.6
2. *R.Wolf +0.9
3. C.Kersahw +0.8

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.1
2. R.Troncoso +0.5
3. C.Wade +0.4

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.


The Mets stack up with the Dodgers about as well as any NL team does, but the Dodgers still hold an edge pretty much all across the board, but the Mets are definitely the best team the Dodgers have played so far this year. The Dodgers biggest edge is definitely in the starting rotation, where the Mets are a one man show, starring Johan Santana. The Dodgers won't have to face Johan Santana this time around, which bodes well for their chances to win this series. They will instead have to face the likes of Tim Redding in Game #1, who will be making his 2009 seasonal debut, after making two starts with the Mets AAA team. In Game #2, the Dodgers ace, Chad Billingsley faces John Maine who has been pitching well but sports a lucky .242 BABIP against. In the third game the Dodgers will throw out Eric Stults, who had a mediocre start against the Marlins, having come off a complete game shutout prior to that game... Stults faces the steady but very pedestrian Livan Hernandez. The Dodgers should be pretty solid favorites to take two out of three games in this series.

Source for stats: Fangraphs

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Dodgers vs Marlins, May 17th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Marlins J.Koronka vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 58.68% 10.1


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Dodgers vs Marlins, May 16th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Marlins E.Milton vs A.Miller Marlins 51.46% 9.6


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Marlins, May 15th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Marlins E.Stults vs C.Volstad Marlins 56.90% 9.1


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Dodgers vs Phillies, May 14th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Phillies C.Billingsley vs C.Hamels Phillies 57.26% 8.2


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Dodgers vs Phillies, May 13th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Phillies R.Wolf vs J.Moyer Phillies 50.50% 9.9


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Dodgers vs Phillies, May 12th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Phillies C.Kershaw vs C.Park Phillies 51.69% 10.0


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, May 10th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs J.Weaver Giants 54.95% 7.6


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, May 9th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers J.Sanchez vs E.Stults Dodgers 57.45% 9.0


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Friday, May 08, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, May 8th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers B.Zito vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 64.97% 8.0


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Nationals vs Dodgers, May 7th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Nationals Dodgers J.Zimmermann vs R.Wolf Dodgers 57.81% 8.7


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

2nd Annual Blogger Night @ Dodger Stadium

Just got back from the 2nd Annual Blogger Night at Dodger Stadium. Wow! What a blast that was. A special thanks to Josh Rawitch and Drew Merle for putting this great event together, and to the Mother Ship Dodger Blog for getting us bloggers noticed.

The event started with picking up our Preferred parking pass at the guard shack at the Sunset gate right when the stadium parking lot opened up at 5pm. After successfully finding Lot F, we wandered over to the Dodger offices and after some slight confusion we were welcomed and asked to sit in some seats overlooking the Dodgers batting practice and wait for the rest of our group to arrive. Around 530pm the experience started, and I call it an experience because it was just that, quite an experience. Being new to these events I didn't recognize any of the faces in the group and assumed Jon Weisman was late or off doing something else, because his would be the only face I'd recognize without a doubt. We were ushered into a conference room, seated around a large table. We were given an ID with some kind of special access pass on it to wear around our necks and told to put our names on it. We were then asked who had attended the previous event. Of course I didn't raise my hand, but over half the people did. Everyone introduced themselves by first name. I still didn't recognize any of the names, but who does in a room that is full of strangers to you. But thought it odd, that I didn't recognize atleast one name from many of the other Dodger bloggers.

Next up, we were then told why we had been brought here today and what our mission was. I thought that was kind of odd, I figured our mission was to sit in a Dodger Suite, meet each other, maybe meet a Dodger spokesperson or two and enjoy a baseball game. We were asked how many of us had the ambition of working for the Dodgers and becoming a Dodger Embassador. About two-thirds of the people raised their hands, which I thought odd coming from a group of Dodger bloggers. I mean, what the heck is a Dodger Embassador anyways? Do they represent the Dodgers at the United Nations!? Well, as I soon found out their job is to interact with Dodger fans, take in a game and mingle with the fans in the area and report back to the Dodgers what their "Fan Experience" was like. What experiences did they really enjoy or dislike, and what kind of recommendations did they have for the Dodgers to make the "fan experience" more enjoyable. I thought wow, this isn't exactly what I had in mind, but I will go along with it. Next we were told our actual mission and it was to be "seat fillers" behind home plate in an area that is called the "Dodger Dugout Club", which is a very very expensive place to sit if you have to buy your own tickets. Supposedly season seats go for $50K per year, and I don't know if that is per seat, or per two seats, but at $50K it didn't really enter my mind that it would ever be something I'd want to pay for. We were getting briefed on how to be a "seat filler" or what the Dodger employee called a "Page". Kind of like when you watch the Academy Awards on TV and when they have empty seats, they actually have volunteers (I assume they are volunteers) who will sit in empty seats until the actual person or people that have tickets for that seat arrive. I guess the Dodgers don't want to give the impression that there aren't people sitting in the seats behind home plate in the Dugout Club area to the television audience. We were then told that we'd be assigned seats to sit in by a Dodger employee who would be supervising the sortie from underneath one of the tunnels. And when someone arrived at their seat, you were to great them with "Hello, and welcome to Dodger Stadium", then get up and politely leave. You weren't suppose to eat any food at your seat as they didn't want anyone to arrive to their seat to a trashy mess and you weren't suppose to chat on your cellphone as this makes you look like an uninterested or typical Dugout Club Dodger fan, and lastly you had to take off your VIP pass so it would not be visible to the TV audience.

Wow! This was a lot of information to swallow for my first Dodger Blogger get together. It didn't seem like a very comfortable way to watch a Dodger game, even though you'd have terrific seats for 15 or possibly 20 minutes at a time, as you got shuffled in and out of the Dugout Club to different seating assignments. So one last time we introduced ourselves and this time I said something to the effect of, "My name is such and such, but I believe I may have been put with the wrong group of people, are the rest of you here for blogger night?" That got a good laugh from the group as it definitely was not "Blogger night" for this group of people and it became very ironic that I had heard a good 30 minutes of talk from the Dodger employer in charge of the Embassador program and the members trying to become Dodger Embassadors, because I'm sure some of the information (like this story I am telling), they probably would feel somewhat embarrassed of the public knowing it. Don't you think it's odd that the Dodgers have people filling seats behind home to make the stadium look full to the television audience? I was kind of shocked, and even more shocked that blogger night was going to have myself, guest and other Dodger bloggers playing musical chairs in some of the most expensive seats in the stadium. There were some other good stories I heard about the crowd control problem, which section of the stadiums have "the best" fans and "the worst" fans. What kind of experiences the security guards had recently had with the new alcohol enforcement policies in the parking lot and what some of the loopholes in the policy are. I guess I won't kiss and tell everything, but it was interesting nonetheless.

After finding out we were with the wrong group of VIP visitors, we eventually got in touch with Josh who scurried us and a few stragglers to the Tommy Lasorda suite where a crowd of probably around 30 bloggers and guests were chatting away. After a brief introduction of who we were and which blogs we were associated with Josh gave us a little introduction of who some of the guest speakers were going to be. This time I did recognize many names and even a few faces, I was finally at "Blogger Night", and would no longer have to worry about keeping a seat warm for a movie star or corporate banker. The highlight turned out to be a good 30 minute talk and question session from GM Ned Colletti. I actually ended up standing right next to him the whole time and got to shake his hand. He came across as a "no bullshit" type of person. He spoke what appeared to be the truth and seemed very genuine. Some of his opinions and cliches were "old school", like taking the Dodgers hot start with a grain of salt because it's called a baseball "season", not a baseball "month", and certain players he liked having on the team because they were good people. I think the exact words he used is that they were "adults" (Loretta, Ausmus) and acted like it. I believe he had to tone down some of his opinions a little bit, because after all he is the GM and is a very high ranking team spokesperson. It wasn't too hard to read between the lines on some of his opinions to see that there was more too them and that he really in fact had strong opinions but had to tone them down. One of those topics was Andruw Jones. He almost started to light into Andruw Jones and how he came to the Dodgers out of shape and ended up burning bridges with Dodger fans etc... Colletti is obviously not a big Andruw Jones fan, and I am not just talking about baseball. Another more subtle stab was made at Russell Martin and about how he was not a highly touted prospect when he was drafted and much of his success came from his great work ethic, which is probably true to a degree. I got the feeling that Colletti thanks that Russell has gotten away from that work ethic over the past year, and that matches some of the gossip about Russell and his party boy escapades.

In the Q&A Ned probably took around 10 questions from the Dodger Bloggers. I thought all of them were pretty good questions, I wasn't too crazy about the question/complaint about why we have to sing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch. Hey, it was a totally fair question but I guess since the singing of both God Bless America and Take Me Out To The Ballgame doesn't really bother me at all, it rubbed me the wrong way. Basically, the answer was that it was Jamie McCourt's idea and whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.

The game was great, the Dodgers broke the record for most consecutive wins to start the season at home. It's not every day you get to see a 98 year old baseball record fall that doesn't involve steroids. The Tommy Lasorda suite we were in was great. We were fed Dodger Dogs, sandwiches, cookies, soda and one of the most elaborate dessert trays you will ever see. I proudly admit, I didn't indulge myself from it. Ken Levine and Josh Suchon from Dodger Talk (KABC 790 AM radio) even stopped by to chat for a little while. They were mobbed, so didn't get a chance to meet them. For the most part I watched the game, but I would say that more than half of the people were chatting and getting caught up on old times which is fine too. Maybe next time, I won't be so shy and become one of the chatters. :)

Dodgers Are Too Good???

The commissioners office is supposedly worried about the competitive balance in the NL West and the Dodgers ridiculously long home winning streak to start off the season. Fan interest is at an all time low in the four other NL West cities and this is not good for the economics of baseball, which is already hurting from the current recession. If the Dodgers win a record 13th consecutive home game to start off the season tonight vs the Washington Nationals, the Commissioner will start all Dodger home games (until they lose) with the visiting team getting a run on the board. If the winning streak lasts to the Giants series, then the visiting team will start getting two runs to start off the game. This handicap could easily bring the Dodgers back down to the pack in the NL West, so it's something to definitely keep your eye on. Let's take a look at what the Dodgers home record would be had this plan been in effect for the whole 2009 season.

Home Records
Current: 12-0
Spotting 1 run: 8-4 is the worst possible record
Spotting 2 runs: 7-5 is the worst possible record


Note: The Dodgers have won four 1 run games at home, so at worst they could have lost four having spotted the opposition one run, but likely would've split the difference and gone something like 10-2. As far as spotting the opposition two runs, there would only be 5 home games effected by this plan. Keep in mind that the Dodgers didn't bat in the 9th inning in any of these games, so they likely would've won some of these games that they won by only one or two runs.

Analysis: This is a hard one to get a good handle on because all of the in game strategies that would be effected by spotting the opposition one or two runs to start a game off with, but my instincts are that the Dodgers would still win the NL West while spotting the opposition even one or two runs to start a game off with. With the way that O.Hudson, M.Ramirez and A.Ethier and swinging the bat and C.Billingsley and J.Broxton pitching, there isn't much the rest of the NL West can do unless you start spotting opposing teams four or five runs per game and that's just outright unfair if you ask me.

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Nationals vs Dodgers, May 6th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Nationals Dodgers D.Cabrera vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 66.0% 9.4


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, Cinco de Mayo

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
DBacks Dodgers M.Scherzer vs J.Weaver Dodgers 53.05% 8.6


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Monday, May 04, 2009

Diamondbacks / Dodgers Series Preview

A quick two game series between these two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dodgers find themselves with the best record in baseball at 18-8, while the Diamondbacks come in struggling at 11-14. Let's take a trip down recent memory lane to see how these two teams got to where they are today.

Team Hitting Arm Range R Error R Overall Fielding SP RP Overall Pitching Team Total
Units RAR NL Rank NL Rank NL Rank UZR RAR RAR WAR WAR
Arizona 1.1       3.5 25.5 8.6 3.8 0.4
Los Angeles 52.8       -2.6 22.2 6.2 3.1 4.9
Arizona NL Rank 15th 6th 2nd 14th 6th 2nd 3rd 2nd 15th
Los Angeles NL Rank 1st 9th 10th 11th 9th 4th 4th 4th 1st


The DBacks come in as advertised an all pitching and no hitting team. Their defense has made some slight improvements but not enough to make up for their awful hitting to begin the 2009 season. The Dodgers also have been solid pitching wise, and enter the game with the 4th best pitching staff in the NL (2 spots behind the DBacks). These two teams would be mirror images of each other, and for the most part last year they were, except that this year the Dodgers have the number one ranked offense in the NL. The DBacks on the otherhand have the 15th ranked offense in the NL. Both bullpens are solid, though each has been through some turbulence of late. The DBacks find their closer Jose Valverde on the DL and the Dodgers recently placed 2008 Setup Man of the Year, HongZhi Guo on the DL.

Series Pitching Matchups
Date DBacks Dodgers Vegas Favorite
5/4 Doug Davis Eric Stults Dodgers 57.4%
5/5 Max Scherzer Jeff Weaver Dodgers 55.0%



Source for stats: Fangraphs

Dodger Sims Blog Format Changes

Dodger Sims will take on a new look starting today. No longer will I be posting the outputs of my Simulator for Dodger games. Dodger Sims will now turn to various sabermetric postings about the Dodgers, Dodger opponents or other baseball teams in general.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Dodgers vs Rockies, April 24th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Rockies E.Stults vs A.Cook Rockies 53.90% 11.11


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Dodgers vs Astros, April 23rd

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Astros C.Billingsley vs W.Rodriguez Dodgers 51.69% 8.88


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Dodgers vs Astros, April 22nd

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Astros R.Wolf vs R.Oswalt Astros 50.80% 9.30


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Dodgers vs Astros, April 21st

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Astros C.Kershaw vs R.Ortiz Dodgers 57.90% 10.63


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Monday, April 20, 2009

No Game Today... But

Let me throw out this little mathematical tidbit. The Dodgers are off to a 10-3 start. Sure, it doesn't gaurantee squat at this point due to small sample size and the fact that the Dodgers have yet to face real, I mean any competition outside of the NL West plus a hundred other reasons. But it is 13 games, so it does mean something as there are only 149 games left in the season.

Let's say you predicted the Dodgers to win somewhere between 87-92 games before the season started this year. You now have to add around three wins to that total. Why? Well, let's use a 88 win projection as our example. 88 wins in a 162 game season is a winning percentage of 0.5432. On a 13 game pace with a 0.5432 winning percentage the Dodgers should have 7.1 wins. But they don't, they have 10. The Dodgers in this scenario have banked 2.9 wins. That's house money. So take your 88 wins and add 2.9 (let's call it three) wins, which means you have to up your win projection for the Dodgers to 91. Likewise, if you projected them as a 90 win team to start off the season, you now have to bump that up to 93. The same for the other NL West teams. If you thought the Dodgers closest competitor, the Arizona Diamondbacks was going to be an 85 win team, well they are off to a 4-8 start and need to be docked around 2 wins. So you are looking at around a 5 win swing between what you need to adjust your Dodger and Diamondbacks projections to. It still doesn't gaurantee anything, but it's always nice to have the advantage.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Rockies vs Dodgers, April 19th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs J.McDonald Dodgers 50.10% 8.95


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Rockies vs Dodgers, April 18th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Rockies Dodgers A.Cook vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 64.42% 8.00


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, April 16th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers B.Zito vs E.Stults Dodgers 65.90% 8.05


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Giants vs Dodgers, April 15th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers M.Cain vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.10% 7.54


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Monday, April 13, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, April 13th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers R.Johnson vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 61.55% 7.28


Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 12th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Diamondbacks R.Wolf vs D.Haren Diamondbacks 57.09% 9.07

Notes: I put Juan Pierre in for Matt Kemp. With Pierre in the lineup, the Diamondbacks have a win probability of 57.09%, and with Kemp in the lineup that win probability drops down to 54.89%. This is a fairly large difference. It appears as if the Dodgers and Joe Torre have confused Christmas gift giving and Easter.

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Friday, April 10, 2009

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 11th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Diamondbacks E.Stults vs Y.Petit Diamondbacks 50.10% 9.91

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 10th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Padres J.McDonald vs J.Garland Diamondbacks 54.71% 10.31


Who is Likely to have the Most...
Category Most 2nd Most 3rd Most 4th Most 5th Most
Home Runs M.Ramirez C.Young M.Reynolds J.Upton C.Jackson
Triples S.Drew O.Hudson C.Young F.Lopez J.Upton
Doubles O.Hudson M.Ramirez C.Tracy A.Ethier J.Loney
Singles R.Furcal O.Hudson F.Lopez M.Ramirez M.Kemp
Walks S.Drew F.Lopez C.Tracy M.Montero M.Ramirez
Note: Figures may change once lineup is announced.

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Dodgers vs Padres, April 9th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Padres Kershaw vs Correia Dodgers 54.20% 7.43

Monday, February 16, 2009

Opening Series of 2009...

I used my simulator to play the first six games of the Dodgers 2009 schedule. I put Manny Ramirez on the Dodgers roster and ran 10,000 simulations of each game. Here is what the simulator expects.


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Padres Kuroda vs Peavy Padres 50.53% 7.14
Dodgers Padres Wolf vs Young Padres 50.33% 7.33
Dodgers Padres Billingsley vs Silva Dodgers 61.12% 8.00

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Dodgers 2009 Offseason WAR

This offseason I will be keeping track of the Dodgers team WAR tally. That is, how many wins is the current Dodger roster expected to have based on summing the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of each individual player. As free agent signings and possible trades occur, I will update this table. Where the Dodgers have a hole in their roster, I have added a replacement level player or something close to it. The primary source of player projections I am using is ZiPS, and where ZiPs is an extreme outlier, I then use either Marcel or Chone.

Analysis: The Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez. I have him worth 4.16 WAR using Chone projections, and docking him 5 runs for defense.

Last Updated: 04-MAR-2009
Hitters
Player Position Playing Time wOBA Offensive WAR Defensive WAR Baserunning WAR Position Adjustment Total WAR
R.Martin C 80% .355 1.15 0.0 0.01 3.0 3.40
B.Ausmus C 20% .288 -2.96 -0.4 0.0 3.0 -0.07
J.Loney 1B 85% .352 0.73 -0.5 0.0 1.0 1.05
Repl 1B 1B 15% .319 -1.00 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.00
O.Hudson 2B 75% .336 -0.18 0.5 0.0 2.0 1.74
M.Loretta 2B 25% .319 -1.18 -0.10 0.0 2.0 0.18
C.Blake 3B 75% .338 0.17 -0.4 0.0 2.3 0.79
B.Dewitt 3B 25% .314 -1.47 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.53
R.Furcal SS 75% .338 0.17 0.25 0.25 2.5 2.38
C.Hu SS 25% .287 -2.81 0.4 0.1 2.5 0.05
M.Ramirez LF 85% .402 3.90 -0.5 0.0 1.5 4.16
M.Kemp CF 85% .350 0.90 -0.5 0.5 2.5 2.89
A.Ethier RF 80% .362 1.59 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.55
J.Repko CF 25% .317 -1.27 0.25 0.0 2.5 0.36
J.Pierre LF/CF 25% .299 -2.07 0.1 0.75 1.5 0.07
Hitting Total 19.89

Pitchers
Name Pos IP HR BB SO FIP ERA Leverage WAR
C.Billingsley SP 204 14 73 195 3.25 0.0 4.06
H.Kuroda SP 171 14 42 103 3.80 0.0 2.42
C.Kershaw SP 175 17 76 135 4.22 0.0 1.69
R.Wolf SP 170 19 68 140 4.21 0.0 1.67
J.McDonald SP 70 11 29 48 5.11 0.0 0.02
E.Stults SP 60 9 22 39 4.95 0.0 0.12
J.Schmidt SP 40 5 16 33 4.38 0.0 0.32
R.Troncoso SP 50 6 19 38 4.38 0.0 0.40
J.Broxton RP 65 4 23 81 2.57 1.0 2.51
H.Guo RP 70 5 27 82 2.94 0.6 1.90
C.Wade RP 90 15 23 59 4.82 0.3 0.14
R.Troncoso RP 65 6 26 55 3.91 0.1 0.60
G.Mota RP 50 7 21 42 4.60 0.0 0.01
C.Vargas RP 50 6 20 39 4.40 0.0 0.12
J.McDonald RP 40 5 17 31 4.55 0.0 0.03
E.Stults RP 30 4 11 22 4.57 0.0 0.02
J.Schmidt RP 30 3 13 28 3.93 0.0 0.22
S.Elbert RP 15 3 7 10 5.87 0.0 -0.19
Bullpen 5.33
Starters 10.70
All Pitchers 16.03

Team Totals
Type WAR
Hitters 19.89
Rotation 10.70
Bullpen 5.33
Team Total 85.92

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Simulations, World Series Game #5

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Rays vs Phillies S.Kazmir vs C.Hamels Phillies 61.55% 9.84 7 Phillies

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Simulation, World Series Game #4

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Rays vs Phillies A.Sonnanstine vs J.Blanton Phillies 50.99 9.89 12 Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Simulation for World Series, Game #3

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Rays vs Phillies M.Garza vs J.Moyer Phillies 57.03% 9.69 9 Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds


What's at stake in Game #3?
Situation Rays Odds to win W.S. Phillies Odds to win W.S.
Current Odds 48.59% 51.41%
Rays Win Game #3 70.28% 29.72%
Phillies Win Game #3 31.93% 68.07%
Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Simulation for World Series, Game #2

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Phillies vs Rays B.Myers vs J.Shields Rays 63.06% 9.75 6 Rays
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What's riding on tonight's game?
Situation Rays Odds to win W.S. Phillies Odds to win W.S.
Current Odds 46.78% 53.22%
Rays Win Game #2 59.97% 40.03%
Phillies Win Game #2 35.39% 74.85%
Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Simulation for World Series Game #1

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Phillies vs Rays C.Hamels vs S.Kazmir Rays 51.45% 9.84 5 Phillies
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Saturday, October 18, 2008

Simulation for ALCS Game #7

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Red Sox vs Rays J.Lester vs M.Garza Rays 50.18% 9.50 4 Rays
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Friday, September 26, 2008

Dodger Sims... Is On Vacation

Will be back in time for the World Series.
Go Rays, Dodgers and Angels
Enjoy the playoffs!!!
And I will enjoy my...
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation
Vacation

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, September 25th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Padres vs Dodgers J.Peavy vs E.Stults Dodgers 57.95% 7.63 12 Padres
DBacks vs Cardinals D.Davis vs J.Pineiro Cardinals 51.21% 8.54 15 Cardinals
Cubs vs Mets R.Harden vs P.Martinez Cubs 56.59% 8.66 13 Mets
Reds vs Astros J.Cueto vs R.Oswalt Astros 60.24% 8.97 14 Astros
Pirates vs Brewers Z.Duke vs J.Suppan Brewers 71.76% 9.10 6 Brewers
Rockies vs Giants J.de la Rosa vs B.Zito Rockies 61.60% 8.37 4 Rockies
Rays vs Tigers S.Kazmir vs A.Galarraga Rays 56.60% 11.16 12 Tigers
Indians vs Red Sox J.Sowers vs J.Lester Red Sox 73.05% 10.93 7 Red Sox
Yankees vs Blue Jays C.Pavano vs R.Halladay Blue Jays 63.70% 9.08 10 Blue Jays
White Sox vs Twins G.Floyd vs K.Slowey Twins 54.27% 9.94 13 Twins
Angels vs Mariners D.Moseley vs C.Jimenez Angels 53.72% 9.80 10 Angels
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, September 24th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Padres vs Dodgers S.Estes vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 68.21% 8.40 16 Dodgers
Braves vs Phillies J.Reyes vs B.Myers Phillies 68.70% 10.43 14 Braves
Marlins vs Nationals J.Johnson vs T.Redding Marlins 60.79% 8.33 13 Marlins
Cubs vs Mets C.Zambrano vs O.Perez Cubs 53.84% 9.61 15 Cubs
Reds vs Astros R.Ramirez vs R.Wolf Astros 61.04% 9.33 5 Astros
Pirates vs Brewers P.Maholm vs C.Sabathia Brewers 72.81% 8.94 6 Brewers
DBacks vs Cardinals M.Scherzer vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 52.40% 7.60 6 Cardinals
Rockies vs Giants L.Hernandez vs J.Sanchez Rockies 51.37% 8.25 21 Rockies
A's vs Rangers D.Eveland vs M.Harrison Rangers 63.15% 10.60 18 Rangers
Rays vs Orioles E.Jackson vs R.Liz Rays 69.85% 13.06 17 Rays
Indians vs Red Sox F.Carmona vs P.Byrd Red Sox 59.03% 12.14 9 Red Sox
Royals vs Tigers B.Bannister vs N.Robertson Tigers 61.69% 10.53 14 Royals
Yankees vs Blue Jays P.Hughes vs A.Burnett Blue Jays 56.89% 9.34 8 Yankees
White Sox vs Twins M.Buehrle vs N.Blackburn White Sox 55.17% 9.61 5 Twins
Angels vs Mariners J.Garland vs F.Hernandez Mariners 59.99% 8.09 11 Angels
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Monday, September 22, 2008

Who Will Win The NL West? - DOUBLE UPDATED

I am using my simulator to determine the Dodgers' odds of winning the NL West. I simulated each remaining game for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, using what should be the likely starters for the remainder of games. I then use a random number generator from 0 to 1 to determine if each game is a win or a loss for each of the two teams. I do this 1 million times, calculating how many times each team ends up winning the NL West. If the two teams tie for first place, I then do the same thing for a 163rd game. Below is a table showing the win probabilities and likely pitching matchups for each remaining game, with the results of my simulation.
Date Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Win Probability Result
9/23 Padres Dodgers W.LeBlanc vs C.Billingsley .7087 Win
9/23 DBacks Cardinals R.Johnson vs K.Lohse .4492 Loss
9/24 Padres Dodgers S.Estes vs C.Kershaw .6811 Win
9/24 DBacks Cardinals M.Scherzer vs A.Wainwright .4441 Loss
9/25 Padres Dodgers J.Peavy vs G.Maddux .6211 TBD
9/25 DBacks Cardinals D.Davis vs J.Pineiro .4841 Loss
9/26 Dodgers Giants H.Kuroda vs B.Hennessey .6400 TBD
9/26 Rockies DBacks J.Hirsh vs D.Haren .6566 TBD
9/27 Dodgers Giants D.Lowe vs M.Cain .5696 TBD
9/27 Rockies DBacks G.Reynolds vs B.Webb .7505 TBD
9/28 Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum .4998 TBD
9/28 Rockies DBacks J.Jimenez vs R.Johnson .5384 TBD
9/29 DBacks Dodgers M.Scherzer vs C.Kershaw .5499 TBD
Note: All win probabilities are listed for the Dodgers or Diamondbacks, and for the Dodgers on the 9/29 game.
Team Divisions Titles
Dodgers 100.00%
DBacks 0.00%
1 million iterations were ran.

Update: It's all over folks. The Cardinals defeated the Diamondbacks three times in a row and on September 25th eliminated the Diamondbacks from contention. Good luck to the Dodgers in the playoffs.

Simulations for Tuesday, September 23rd

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Padres vs Dodgers W.LeBlanc vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 70.87% 7.42 11 Dodgers
Braves vs Phillies J.Reyes vs C.Hamels Phillies 74.77% 9.83 5 Braves
Marlins vs Nationals S.Olsen vs S.Martis Marlins 53.67% 9.46 13 Nationals
Cubs vs Mets S.Marshall vs J.Santana Mets 52.17% 9.04 8 Mets
Pirates vs Brewers J.Karstens vs D.Bush Brewers 68.40% 10.43 12 Brewers
Reds vs Astros E.Volquez vs W.Rodriguez Astros 52.01% 8.00 3 Reds
DBacks vs Cardinals R.Johnson vs K.Lohse Cardinals 55.08% 7.88 11 Cardinals
Rockies vs Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum Giants 51.72% 6.90 13 Rockies
Rays vs Orioles J.Shields vs G.Olson Rays 67.19% 10.95 7 Rays
Indians vs Red Sox C.Lee vs T.Wakefield Indians 52.12% 10.48 9 Red Sox
Royals vs Tigers Z.Greinke vs F.Garcia Tigers 57.87% 8.97 5 Royals
Yankees vs Blue Jays M.Mussina vs J.Litsch Yankees 57.56% 9.18 4 Yankees
A's vs Rangers J.Outman vs D.Nippert Rangers 69.53% 10.70 10 Rangers
White Sox vs Twins J.Vazquez vs S.Baker White Sox 55.32% 9.28 11 Twins
Rays vs Orioles M.Talbot vs A.Simon Rays 65.50% 11.66 12 Rays
Angels vs Mariners J.Weaver vs R.Feierabend Angels 58.84% 9.40 15 Mariners
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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Simulations for Monday, September 22nd

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Marlins vs Reds R.Nolasco vs A.Harang Marlins 56.34% 9.89 12 Reds
Braves vs Phillies J.Jurrjens vs J.Happ Phillies 53.36% 9.34 8 Phillies
Cubs vs Mets J.Marquis vs J.Niese Cubs 57.66% 9.52 14 Cubs
DBacks vs Cardinals B.Webb vs T.Wellemeyer DBacks 54.60% 7.44 6 DBacks
Rays vs Orioles D.Price vs B.Bass Rays 58.47% 10.56 6 Rays
Indians vs Red Sox Z.Jackson vs J.Beckett Red Sox 73.43% 10.59 7 Indians
Royals vs Tigers G.Meche vs Z.Miner Tigers 55.05% 8.38 8 Royals
A's vs Rangers G.Smith vs K.Millwood Rangers 70.94% 10.07 7 A's
Angels vs Mariners E.Santana vs R.Smith Angels 61.10% 8.21 3 Angels
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Simulations for Sunday, September 21st

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Giants vs Dodgers M.Cain vs D.Lowe Dodgers 68.73% 6.84 1 Giants
Cardinals vs Cubs B.Looper vs R.Dempster Cubs 70.21% 8.40 6 Cubs
Astros vs Pirates R.Oswalt vs R.Ohlendorf Astros 54.15% 8.92 8 Astros
Phillies vs Marlins J.Moyer vs C.Volstad Phillies 51.18% 9.61 7 Phillies
Brewers vs Reds S.McClung vs B.Arroyo Reds 51.83% 10.49 9 Brewers
Mets vs Braves M.Pelfrey vs J.Parr Mets 54.65% 8.76 13 Braves
Padres vs Nationals C.Baek vs O.Perez Nationals 53.95% 7.45 8 Padres
DBacks vs Rockies D.Haren vs G.Reynolds DBacks 56.91% 11.25 17 DBacks
Tigers vs Indians D.Willis vs S.Lewis Indians 52.63% 10.71 15 Indians
Orioles vs Yankees C.Waters vs A.Pettitte Yankees 74.36% 9.84 10 Yankees
Red Sox vs Blue Jays D.Matsuzaka vs S.Richmond Red Sox 57.17% 9.72 3 Red Sox
Twins vs Rays F.Liriano vs A.Sonnanstine Rays 64.72% 8.82 5 Twins
Angels vs Rangers J.Lackey vs S.Feldman Rangers 51.41% 11.08 10 Angels
White Sox vs Royals J.Danks vs B.Duckworth White Sox 67.95% 10.65 3 White Sox
Mariners vs A's B.Morrow vs S.Gallagher A's 59.54% 7.64 8 A's
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Friday, September 19, 2008

Simulations for Saturday, September 20th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Giants vs Dodgers B.Hennessey vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 72.71% 7.40 17 Dodgers
Cardinals vs Cubs J.Pineiro vs T.Lilly Cubs 64.10% 9.08 9 Cubs
Astros vs Pirates B.Moehler vs J.Barthmaier Pirates 51.49% 9.47 10 Pirates
Phillies vs Marlins J.Blanton vs A.Sanchez Marlins 53.12% 9.99 5 Phillies
Brewers vs Reds C.Sabathia vs J.Cueto Brewers 60.19% 9.61 7 Reds
Mets vs Braves P.Martinez vs J.Campillo Braves 55.23% 8.93 6 Braves
Padres vs Nationals C.Young vs J.Lanna Nationals 56.94% 7.49 7 Padres
DBacks vs Rockies D.Davis vs A.Cook Rockies 64.87% 10.11 8 DBacks
Tigers vs Indians J.Verlander vs J.Sowers Indians 52.38% 11.10 9 Indians
Orioles vs Yankees B.Burres vs A.Aceves Yankees 67.44% 10.91 1 Yankees
Red Sox vs Blue Jays J.Lester vs R.Halladay Blue Jays 57.03% 7.98 9 Blue Jays
Twins vs Rays K.Slowey vs S.Kazmir Rays 64.14% 8.29 9 Rays
Angels vs Rangers D.Moseley vs V.Padilla Rangers 56.51% 11.46 10 Angels
White Sox vs Royals G.Floyd vs K.Davies White Sox 54.05% 10.20 7 Royals
Mariners vs A's C.Silva vs K.Saarloos OAK 54,84 8.03 15 A's
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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Simulatoins for Friday, September 19th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Giants vs Dodgers B.Zito vs G.Maddux Dodgers 72.18% 7.70 8 Giants
Cardinals vs Cubs A.Wainwright vs C.Zambrano Cubs 60.17% 7.89 18 Cardinals
Astros vs Pirates R.Wolf vs I.Snell Pirates 53.28% 8.22 6 Astros
Phillies vs Marlins B.Myers vs J.Johnson Marlins 60.25% 9.00 22 Marlins
Brewers vs Reds J.Suppan vs R.Ramirez Reds 50.43% 11.23 13 Reds
Mets vs Braves O.Perez vs J.Reyes Braves 50.35% 9.11 14 Mets
Padres vs Nationals D.Hayhurst vs C.Balester Nationals 55.78% 7.57 17 Padres
DBacks vs Rockies M.Scherzer vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 61.96% 10.87 5 Rockies
Tigers vs Indians A.Galarraga vs F.Carmona Indians 59.86% 10.58 11 Indians
Orioles vs Yankees R.Liz vs F.Carmona Yankees 75.89% 12.27 5 Yankees
Red Sox vs Blue Jays P.Byrd vs A.Burnett Blue Jays 62.01% 9.93 7 Red Sox
Twins vs Rays N.Blackburn vs E.Jackson Rays 60.17% 9.48 12 Rays
Angels vs Rangers J.Garland vs M.Harrison Rangers 55.60% 10.99 28 Angels
White Sox vs Royals M.Buehrle vs B.Bannister White Sox 62.16% 10.66 13 White Sox
Mariners vs A's F.Hernandez vs D.Eveland A's 57.19% 6.9 2 A's
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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, September 18th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Pirates C.Kershaw vs P.Maholm Doders 51.28% 8.53 7 Dodgers
Brewers vs Cubs D.Bush vs R.Harden Cubs 65.86% 8.84 13 Cubs
Astros vs Marlins A.Arias vs S.Olsen Marlins 66.99% 10.38 9 Marlins
Mets vs Nationals J.Santana vs T.Redding Mets 54.71% 8.43 9 Mets
Cardinals vs Reds K.Lohse vs E.Volquez Reds 61.07% 7.87 9 Cardinals
Phillies vs Braves C.Hamels vs M.Hampton Phillies 62.62% 9.23 7 Phillies
Giants vs DBacks T.Lincecum vs R.Johnson DBacks 56.55% 8.05 5 DBacks
Mariners vs Royals R.Feierabend vs Z.Greinke Royals 68.41% 9.23 12 Royals
Angels vs A's J.Saunders vs J.Outman Angels 56.18% 9.22 10 Angels
White Sox vs Yankees J.Vazquez vs M.Mussina Yankees 60.72% 8.20 11 Yankees
Orioles vs Blue Jays D.Cabrera vs J.Litsch Blue Jays 62.17% 10.30 5 Blue Jays
Twins vs Rays G.Perkins vs J.Shields Rays 72.24% 9.29 19 Twins
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Simulations for Wednesday, September 17th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Pirates C.Billingsley vs Z.Duke Dodgers 55.96% 8.33 23 Pirates
Padres vs Rockies J.Geer vs L.Hernandez Rockies 67.53% 10.59 1 Rockies
Astros vs Marlins B.Backe vs R.Nolasco Marlins 72.90% 9.40 16 Marlins
Mets vs Nationals B.Knight vs S.Martis Mets 57.34% 8.68 16 Mets
Cardinals vs Reds T.Wellemeyer vs A.Harang Reds 57.66% 8.98 3 Reds
Phillies vs Braves J.Happ vs J.Jurrjens Braves 53.21% 8.53 7 Phillies
Brewers vs Cubs B.Sheets vs J.Marquis Brewers 52.74% 8.53 8 Brewers
Giants vs DBacks J.Sanchez vs B.Webb DBacks 68.79% 8.19 13 DBacks
Twins vs Indians S.Baker vs C.Lee Indians 68.14% 7.81 10 Indians
White Sox vs Yankees L.Broadway vs P.Hughes Yankees 72.25% 10.67 6 Yankees
Orioles vs Blue Jays B.Bass vs D.Purcey Blue Jays 63.06% 10.40 15 Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Rays T.Wakefield vs M.Garza Rays 64.79% 10.15 13 Rays
Tigers vs Rangers F.Garcia vs D.Nippert Rangers 54.43% 11.32 21 Tigers
Mariners vs Royals R.Smith vs G.Meche Royals 62.00% 8.45 7 Royals
Angels vs A's J.Weaver vs G.Smith Angels 57.79% 8.88 5 A's
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Monday, September 15, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, September 16th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Pirates D.Lowe vs J.Karstens Dodgers 57.95% 8.78 8 Dodgers
Astros vs Marlins R.Oswalt vs C.Volstad Marlins 57.71% 8.64 6 Marlins
Mets vs Nationals M.Pelfrey vs O.Perez Mets 57.74% 8.06 1 Nationals
Cardinals vs Reds B.Looper vs B.Arroyo Reds 59.30% 9.36 9 Reds
Phillies vs Braves J.Moyer vs J.Parr Phillies 57.24% 9.44 15 Phillies
Brewers vs Cubs C.Sabathia vs R.Dempster Cubs 54.88% 8.75 9 Cubs
Padres vs Rockies S.Estes vs U.Jimenez Rockies 76.13% 10.41 13 Rockies
Giants vs DBacks M.Cain vs D.Haren DBacks 67.07% 8.29 2 DBacks
Twins vs Indians F.Liriano vs Z.Jackson Indians 53.66% 9.27 21 Indians
White Sox vs Yankees G.Floyd vs A.Pettitte Yankees 67.98% 9.38 8 White Sox
Orioles vs Blue Jays C.Waters vs S.Marcum Blue Jays 63.71% 10.51 2 Orioles
Red Sox vs Rays J.Beckett vs A.Sonnanstine Rays 54.54% 8.88 3 Rays
Tigers vs Rangers Z.Miner vs K.Millwood Rangers 62.70% 10.59 9 Rangers
Mariners vs Royals B.Morrow vs B.Duckworth Royals 52.59% 9.08 9 Royals
Angels vs A's J.Lackey vs S.Gallagher Angels 53.85% 8.11 8 A's
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Sunday, September 14, 2008

Simulations for Monday, September 15th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Pirates H.Kuroda vs R.Ohlendorf Dodgers 53.52% 8.58 10 Dodgers
Cubs vs Astros T.Lilly vs B.Moehler Cubs 57.42% 8.51 7 Cubs
Mets vs Nationals P.Martinez vs J.Lannan Mets 51.36% 8.41 9 Nationals
Padres vs Rockies W.LeBlanc vs U.Jimenez Rockies 74.10% 10.01 16 Padres
Giants vs DBacks B.Hennessey vs D.Davis DBacks 70.72% 10.08 DBacks 4
Twins vs Indians K.Slowey vs S.Lewis Indians 53.48% 8.95 4 Indians
White Sox vs Yankees M.Buehrle vs A.Aceves White Sox 53.98% 8.87 6 Yankees
Red Sox vs Rays D.Matsuzaka vs S.Kazmir Rays 63.22% 9.74 18 Red Sox
Tigers vs Rangers D.Willis vs B.McCarthy Rangers 63.06% 12.04 19 Rangers
Mariners vs Royals C.Silva vs K.Davies Royals 50.91% 9.56 3 Royals
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Saturday, September 13, 2008

Simulations for Sunday, September 14th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies G.Maddux vs A.Cook Rockies 62.71% 10.26 1 Rockies
Braves vs Mets J.Campillo vs O.Perez Mets 55.08% 8.31 11 Braves
Nationals vs Marlins C.Balester vs A.Sanchez Marlins 69.40% 9.41 15 Marlins
Brewers vs Phillies D.Bush vs J.Blanton Phillies 60.52% 11.94 10 Phillies
Cardinals vs Pirates B.Thompson vs J.Davis Pirates 55.72% 9.60 9 Pirates
Giants vs Padres B.Zito vs C.Baek Padres 56.57% 6.61 14 Giants
Reds vs DBacks J.Cueto vs M.Scherzer DBacks 59.55% 11.27 3 Reds
Brewers vs Phillies J.Suppan vs B.Myers Phillies 60.11% 12.39 7 Phillies
Cubs vs Astros C.Zambrano vs R.Wolf Cubs 60.13% 8.93 5 Cubs
Royals vs Indians B.Bannister vs J.Sowers Indians 62.44% 10.78 16 Royals
Rays vs Yankees E.Jackson vs C.Pavano Yankees 58.72% 11.30 12 Yankees
Twins vs Orioles N.Blackburn vs R.Liz Twins 61.32% 10.31 10 Orioles
Blue Jays vs Red Sox R.Halladay vs J.Lester Red Sox 56.74% 8.32 7 Red Sox
Tigers vs White Sox J.Verlander vs J.Vazquez White Sox 62.87% 10.53 6 White Sox
Tigers vs White Sox K.Rogers vs J.Danks White Sox 65.97% 11.18 18 White Sox
Mariners vs Angels F.Hernandez vs E.Santana Angels 59.84% 7.64 7 Angels
Rangers vs A's V.Padilla vs E.Eveland A's 54.50% 8.42 11 A's
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Simulations for Saturday, September 13th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies C.Kershaw vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 62.56% 11.25 6 Dodgers
Brewers vs Phillies M.Parra vs C.Hamels Phillies 55.87% 11.00 10 Phillies
Braves vs Mets M.Hampton vs J.Santana Mets 67.08% 8.45 5 Braves
Cardinals vs Pirates A.Wainwright vs J.Karstens Cardinals 50.49% 8.98 13 Pirates
Nationals vs Marlins T.Redding vs J.Johnson Marlins 69.48% 8.75 6 Marlins
Braves vs Mets J.Reyes vs J.Niese Mets 57.02% 8.52 5 Mets
Reds vs DBacks E.Volquez vs R.Johnson DBacks 55.53% 9.63 5 Reds
Giants vs Padres T.Lincecum vs C.Young Giants 56.79% 5.60 7 Giants
Blue Jays vs Red Sox A.Burnett vs P.Byrd Red Sox 52.76% 9.73 9 Blue Jays
Rays vs Yankees J.Shields vs M.Mussina Yankees 64.90% 8.93 8 Rays
Royals vs Indians Z.Greinke vs F.Carmona Indians 60.90% 9.08 11 Royals
Rangers vs A's S.Feldman vs J.Outman Rangers 54.23% 9.66 8 A's
Twins vs Orioles S.Baker vs D.Cabrera Twins 54.43% 9.45 14 Twins
Royals vs Indians R.Tejeda vs B.Bullington Indians 69.38% 10.69 12 Royals
Rays vs Yankees M.Garza vs S.Ponson Rays 53.30% 10.54 11 Yankees
Blue Jays vs Red Sox J.Litsch vs B.Colon Red Sox 64.29% 9.55 12 Red Sox
Twins vs Orioles G.Perkins vs G.Olson Twins 54.51% 10.07 18 Twins
Mariners vs Angels R.Feierabend vs J.Garland Angels 68.85% 9.87 7 Angels
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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Simulations for Friday, September 12th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies C.Billingsley vs S.Francis Dodgers 55.42% 10.47 9 Dodgers
Cardinals vs Pirates J.Pineiro vs P.Maholm Pirates 59.44% 8.82 12 Pirates
Brewers vs Phillies M.Parra vs C.Hamels Phillies 56.37% 10.87 TBD ppd.
Nationals vs Marlins S.Martis vs S.Olsen Marlins 64.59% 10.45 3 Marlins
Braves vs Mets M.Hampton vs J.Santana Mets 68.14% 8.42 TBD ppd.
Cubs vs Astros J.Marquis vs A.Arias Cubs 61.66% 10.45 TBD ppd.
Reds vs DBacks A.Harang vs B.Webb DBacks 68.80% 9.93 5 DBacks
Giants vs Padres J.Sanchez vs J.Peavy Padres 55.97% 5.72 7 Giants
Twins vs Orioles S.Baker vs D.Cabrera Twins 54.90% 9.54 TBD ppd.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox D.Purcey vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 63.10% 10.26 7 Red Sox
Royals vs Indians G.Meche vs C.Lee Indians 65.06% 7.88 17 Indians
Rays vs Yankees M.Garza vs S.Ponson Yankees 52.19% 10.39 TBD ppd.
Tigers vs White Sox J.Verlander vs J.Danks White Sox 62.74% 10.72 TBD ppd.
Rangers vs A's S.Harrison vs G.Smith Rangers 52.53% 9.36 7 Rangers
Mariners vs Angels R.Smith vs J.Saunders Angels 64.68% 8.61 8 Angels
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Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, September 11th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Brewers vs Phillies B.Sheets vs J.Moyer Brewers 53.64% 10.84 9 Phillies
Rockies vs Braves U.Jimenez vs J.Jurrjens Rockies 55.21% 7.94 12 Braves
Pirates vs Astros Z.Duke vs R.Oswalt Astros 64.03% 9.02 6 Astros
Cubs vs Cardinals R.Harden vs T.Wellemeyer Cubs 56.11% 6.91 5 Cubs
Giants vs Padres M.Cain vs J.Geer Giants 52.25% 6.20 14 Padres
Royals vs Twins B.Duckworth vs F.Liriano Twins 61.25% 8.63 5 Royals
Indians vs Orioles Z.Jackson vs B.Bass Indians 52.36% 10.99 9 Orioles
Blue Jays vs White Sox S.Marcum vs G.Floyd White Sox 63.09% 10.59 10 Blue Jays
Rangers vs A's D.Nippert vs D.Braden A's 51.53% 8.54 7 Rangers
Mariners vs Angels B.Morrow vs J.Weaver Angels 60.96% 8.55 11 Angels
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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, September 10th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Padres D.Lowe vs S.Estes Dodgers 64.35% 6.63 9 Dodgers
Marlins vs Phillies R.Nolasco vs B.Myers Marlins 50.55% 11.35 10 Marlins
Nationals vs Mets O.Perez vs M.Pelfrey Mets 67.90% 8.31 23 Mets
Rockies vs Braves L.Hernandez vs J.Parr Braves 50.53% 9.31 14 Braves
Pirates vs Astros T.Gorzelanny vs B.Moehler Astros 67.06% 10.32 11 Astros
Reds vs Brewers B.Arroyo vs C.Sabathia Brewers 70.44% 9.26 7 Brewers
Cubs vs Cardinals T.Lilly vs B.Looper Cardinals 51.75% 8.40 7 Cubs
DBacks vs Giants D.Haren vs B.Hennessey DBacks 67.18% 7.75 7 Giants
Blue Jays vs White Sox R.Halladay vs M.Buehrle White Sox 51.72% 8.29 11 White Sox
Indians vs Orioles S.Lewis vs C.Waters Indians 57.66% 11.45 8 Indians
Rays vs Red Sox A.Sonnanstine vs J.Beckett Red Sox 64.83% 9.38 6 Rays
A's vs Tigers S.Gallagher vs A.Galarraga Tigers 56.02% 9.32 7 A's
Royals vs Twins K.Davies vs K.Slowey Twins 65.52% 8.57 8 Twins
Yankees vs Angels A.Pettitte vs D.Moseley Yankees 57.94% 9.85 6 Angels
Rangers vs Mariners K.Millwood vs B.Morrow Mariners 50.46% 8.46 15 Mariners
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Monday, September 08, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, September 9th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Padres H.Kuroda vs W.LeBlanc Dodgers 59.11% 6.74 8 Dodgers
Marlins vs Phillies C.Volstad vs K.Kendrick Marlins 50.02% 11.85 18 Marlins
Nationals vs Mets J.Lannan vs O.Perez Mets 58.68% 8.94 18 Mets
Rockies vs Braves A.Cook vs J.Campillo Rockies 50.14% 7.91 9 Braves
Pirates vs Astros R.Ohlendorf vs R.Wolf Astros 66.94% 9.63 12 Astros
Reds vs Brewers R.Ramirez vs J.Suppan Brewers 66.10% 11.06 9 Reds
Cubs vs Cardinals R.Dempster vs K.Lohse Cardinals 51.90% 7.18 7 Cardinals
DBacks vs Giants D.Davis vs B.Zito DBacks 62.20% 8.44 9 Giants
Blue Jays vs White Sox A.Burnett vs J.Vazquez White Sox 65.41% 8.47 4 Blue Jays
Blue Jays vs White Sox J.Litsch vs C.Richard White Sox 65.10% 10.14 10 Blue Jays
Indians vs Orioles J.Sowers vs J.Guthrie Orioles 53.87% 10.48 7 Indians
Rays vs Red Sox S.Kazmir vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox 51.74% 10.02 9 Rays
A's vs Tigers D.Eveland vs N.Robertson Tigers 51.95% 10.09 5 A's
Royals vs Twins B.Bannister vs N.Blackburn Twins 63.47% 8.67 9 Twins
Yankees vs Angels J.Aceves vs E.Santana Angels 60.07% 9.73 8 Yankees
Rangers vs Mariners V.Padilla vs F.Hernandez Marines 61.39% 8.57 10 Rangers
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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Simulations for Monday, September 8th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Dodgers vs Padres G.Maddux vs C.Baek Dodgers 56.79% 7.56 4 Padres
Marlins vs Phillies A.Sanchez vs J.Blanton Phillies 57.30% 11.22 14 Phillies
Pirates vs Astros I.Snell vs A.Arias Pirates 53.01% 10.37 5 Astros
Reds vs Brewers E.Volquez vs D.Bush Brewers 55.46% 10.25 9 Reds
DBacks vs Giants Y.Petit vs T.Lincecum Giants 50.38% 7.01 8 Giants
Indians vs Orioles F.Carmona vs G.Olson Indians 60.20% 11.37 17 Orioles
Rays vs Red Sox E.Jackson vs J.Lester Rays 66.96% 9.45 3 Red Sox
A's vs Tigers G.Gonzalez vs Z.Miner Tigers 56.87% 10.21 22 Tigers
Yankees vs Angels C.Pavano vs J.Garland Yankees 52.50% 9.85 13 Angels
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Saturday, September 06, 2008

Simulations for Sunday, September 7th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers M.Scherzer vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 55.82% 10.29 8 Dodgers
Phillies vs Mets J.Moyer vs P.Martinez Phillies 54.84% 9.67 8 Phillies
Phillies vs Mets C.Hamels vs J.Santana Phillies 53.51% 8.46 9 Mets
Cubs vs Reds S.Marshall vs A.Harang Cubs 52.82% 11.18 7 Reds
Nationals vs Braves C.Balester vs J.Reyes Braves 58.40% 8.97 11 Nationals
Padres vs Brewers C.Young vs M.Parra Brewers 75.15% 10.24 11 Padres
Marlins vs Cardinals J.Johnson vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 51.65% 7.94 4 Cardinals
Astros vs Rockies W.Rodriguez vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 69.67% 8.89 12 Astros
Pirates vs Giants J.Karstens vs J.Sanchez Giants 59.45% 7.83 17 Giants
Rays vs Blue Jays M.Garza vs D.Purcey Rays 62.21% 11.20 1 Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Rangers P.Byrd vs B.McCarthy Rangers 61.48% 12.49 9 Red Sox
Indians vs Royals C.Lee vs Z.Greinke Indians 56.78% 7.85 4 Indians
Tigers vs Twins C.Lambert vs G.Perkins Twins 52.63% 10.36 12 Tigers
Angels vs White Sox J.Saunders vs J.Danks White Sox 66.41% 11.28 5 Angels
Yankees vs Mariners M.Mussina vs C.Silva Yankees 61.80% 9.07 7 Mariners
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Friday, September 05, 2008

Simulations for Saturday, September 6th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers B.Webb vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 52.93% 7.89 9 Dodgers
Cubs vs Reds J.Marquis vs J.Cueto Cubs 56.39% 10.92 23 Cubs
Nationals vs Braves T.Redding vs M.Hampton Braves 55.48% 8.81 13 Nationals
Padres vs Brewers J.Peavy vs B.Sheets Brewers 71.71% 8.88 1 Brewers
Marlins vs Cardinals S.Olsen vs T.Wellemeyer Cardinals 57.98% 9.25 8 Cardinals
Astros vs Rockies R.Oswalt vs J.Francis Rockies 62.87% 8.93 2 Astros
Pirates vs Giants P.Maholm vs M.Cain Giants 54.24% 7.38 13 Giants
A's vs Orioles G.Smith vs G.Olson Orioles 50.49% 10.93 6 A's
Rays vs Blue Jays J.Shields vs S.Marcum Rays 59.20% 10.30 11 Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Rangers T.Wakefield vs M.Harrison Rangers 57.24% 12.14 23 Rangers
Indians vs Royals Z.Jackson vs G.Meche Royals 58.70% 9.10 4 Royals
Tigers vs Twins J.Verlander vs S.Baker Twins 52.65% 8.51 10 Tigers
Angels vs White Sox J.Lackey vs G.Floyd Angels 51.93% 11.68 13 White Sox
Yankees vs Mariners S.Ponson vs R.Rowland-Smith Yankees 52.05% 9.92 11 Yankees
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Thursday, September 04, 2008

Simulations for Friday, September 5th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers D.Haren vs D.Lowe Dodgers 52.53% 8.46 7 Dodgers
Phillies vs Mets B.Myers vs M.Pelfrey Mets 54.71% 9.93 3 Phillies
Cubs vs Reds T.Lilly vs B.Arroyo Cubs 54.29% 11.91 12 Reds
Nationals vs Braves J.Bergmann vs J.Jurrjens Braves 63.20% 9.05 15 Braves
Padres vs Brewers J.Geer vs C.Sabathia Brewers 73.99% 9.95 5 Brewers
Marlins vs Cardinals R.Nolasco vs B.Looper Marlins 54.45% 9.59 5 Marlins
Astros vs Rockies B.Moehler vs U.Jimenez Rockies 69.44% 9.55 8 Rockies
Pirates vs Giants Z.Duke vs K.Correia Giants 54.70% 8.55 7 Pirates
A's vs Orioles D.Braden vs C.Waters A's 55.00% 10.92 13 A's
Rays vs Blue Jays A.Sonnanstine vs A.Burnett Blue Jays 52.41% 9.91 10 Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Rangers J.Beckett vs K.Millwood Rangers 51.52% 10.61 9 Red Sox
Indians vs Royals A.Reyes vs B.Duckworth Indians 50.08% 10.51 12 Indians
Tigers vs Twins A.Galarraga vs F.Liriano Twins 57.52% 8.82 12 Twins
Angels vs White Sox D.Moseley vs M.Buehrle White Sox 63.58% 12.68 12 White Sox
Yankees vs Mariners A.Pettitte vs B.Morrow Yankees 63.05% 10.36 5 Mariners
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Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, September 4th

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Pirates vs Reds T.Gorzelanny vs J.Fogg Reds 59.67% 11.68 14 Reds
Nationals vs Braves J.Bergmann vs J.Reyes Braves 59.30% 9.70 2 Braves
Padres vs Brewers S.Estes vs J.Suppan Brewers 66.66% 10.86 7 Padres
Angels vs Tigers E.Santana vs K.Rogers Angels 60.89% 10.37 8 Angels
A's vs Royals D.Eveland vs B.Bannister A's 53.80% 9.01 9 Royals
A's vs Royals D.Meyer vs K.Davies A's 50.83% 9.21 15 Royals
Twins vs Blue Jays K.Slowey vs J.Litsch Blue Jays 58.15% 9.26 9 Blue Jays
Yankees vs Rays D.Rasner vs S.Kazmir Rays 66.37% 10.44 12 Rays
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, September 3rd

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Padres vs Dodgers W.LeBlanc vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 70.64% 8.28 10 Dodgers
Braves vs Marlins J.Campillo vs C.Volstad Marlins 59.34% 9.09 8 Marlins
Phillies vs Nationals J.Blanton vs O.Perez Phillies 61.05% 10.63 16 Nationals
Pirates vs Reds R.Ohlendorf vs E.Volquez Reds 72.30% 10.53 11 Pirates
Mets vs Brewers O.Perez vs D.Bush Brewers 63.77% 12.15 11 Mets
Astros vs Cubs R.Wolf vs R.Dempster Cubs 68.60% 9.59 4 Astros
Giants vs Rockies B.Zito vs A.Cook Rockies 76.00% 9.58 11 Giants
Cardinals vs DBacks K.Lohse vs D.Davis DBacks 59.49% 10.34 7 DBacks
Orioles vs Red Sox L.Cormier vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox 78.74% 10.30 9 Red Sox
White Sox vs Indians J.Vazquez vs J.Sowers White Sox 57.38% 11.62 6 White Sox
Angels vs Tigers J.Garland vs Z.Miner Angels 52.63% 10.40 15 Tigers
Twins vs Blue Jays N.Blackburn vs A.Burnett Blue Jays 79.68% 7.89 9 Blue Jays
Yankees vs Rays C.Pavano vs E.Jackson Rays 50.85% 9.40 12 Yankees
Mariners vs Rangers F.Hernandez vs D.Nippert Rangers 55.15% 10.50 1 Rangers
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Monday, September 01, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, September 2nd

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Padres vs Dodgers C.Baek vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.93% 8.28 12 Dodgers
Braves vs Marlins C.Morton vs A.Sanchez Marlins 62.69% 9.57 30 Braves
Phillies vs Nationals C.Hamels vs J.Lannan Phillies 62.27% 9.64 4 Phillies
Pirates vs Reds I.Snell vs A.Harang Reds 62.80% 9.18 5 Pirates
Mets vs Brewers J.Niese vs M.Parra Brewers 65.19% 10.86 11 Mets
Astros vs Cubs B.Backe vs C.Zambrano Cubs 66.69% 9.62 16 Astros
Giants vs Rockies T.Lincecum vs L.Hernandez Rockies 53.92% 8.47 11 Rockies
Cardinals vs DBacks A.Wainwright vs Y.Petit DBacks 57.82% 9.37 10 Cardinals
Orioles vs Red Sox R.Liz vs J.Lester Red Sox 81.95% 10.52 16 Red Sox
White Sox vs Indians J.Danks vs F.Carmona White Sox 53.23% 8.91 12 Indians
Angels vs Tigers J.Saunders vs C.Lambert Angels 55.82% 9.96 9 Angels
Twins vs Blue Jays G.Perkins vs D.Purcey Blue Jays 59.77% 9.88 12 Blue Jays
Yankees vs Rays M.Mussina vs M.Garza Rays 62.61% 7.45 9 Yankees
Mariners vs Rangers R.Feierabend vs B.McCarthy Rangers 69.58% 11.24 10 Rangers
A's vs Royals G.Gonzalez vs Z.Greinke Royals 62.94% 7.46 7 Royals
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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Simulations for Monday, Sep 1st

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Padres vs Dodgers C.Young vs G.Maddux Dodgers 61.54% 9.07 7 Dodgers
Braves vs Marlins M.Hampton vs J.Johnson Marlins 53.20% 8.90 7 Marlins
Mets vs Brewers J.Santana vs B.Sheets Brewers 59.84% 9.27 6 Mets
Giants vs Rockies J.Sanchez vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 64.35% 9.96 4 Rockies
Phillies vs Nationals K.Kendrick vs T.Redding Nationals 50.33 9.18 11 Nationals
Astros vs Cubs R.Oswalt vs J.Marquis Cubs 60.34% 9.42 3 Astros
Cardinals vs DBacks J.Pineiro vs R.Johnson DBacks 54.30% 10.29 14 DBacks
Yankees vs Tigers S.Ponson vs J.Verlander Tigers 50.70% 10.93 6 Tigers
White Sox vs Indians C.Richard vs C.Lee Indians 56.76% 9.95 5 Indians
Orioles vs Red Sox G.Olson vs P.Byrd Red Sox 60.88% 11.08 11 Red Sox
Mariners vs Rangers C.Silva vs M.Harrison Rangers 65.48% 10.53 18 Mariners
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