I am using my simulator to determine the Dodgers' odds of winning the NL West. I simulated each remaining game for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, using what should be the likely starters for the remainder of games. I then use a random number generator from 0 to 1 to determine if each game is a win or a loss for each of the two teams. I do this 1 million times, calculating how many times each team ends up winning the NL West. If the two teams tie for first place, I then do the same thing for a 163rd game. Below is a table showing the win probabilities and likely pitching matchups for each remaining game, with the results of my simulation.
| Date
| Visitors
| Home
| Pitching Matchup
| Win Probability
| Result
|
| 9/23
| Padres
| Dodgers
| W.LeBlanc vs C.Billingsley
| .7087
| Win
|
| 9/23
| DBacks
| Cardinals
| R.Johnson vs K.Lohse
| .4492
| Loss
|
| 9/24
| Padres
| Dodgers
| S.Estes vs C.Kershaw
| .6811
| Win
|
| 9/24
| DBacks
| Cardinals
| M.Scherzer vs A.Wainwright
| .4441
| Loss
|
| 9/25
| Padres
| Dodgers
| J.Peavy vs G.Maddux
| .6211
| TBD
|
| 9/25
| DBacks
| Cardinals
| D.Davis vs J.Pineiro
| .4841
| Loss
|
| 9/26
| Dodgers
| Giants
| H.Kuroda vs B.Hennessey
| .6400
| TBD
|
| 9/26
| Rockies
| DBacks
| J.Hirsh vs D.Haren
| .6566
| TBD
|
| 9/27
| Dodgers
| Giants
| D.Lowe vs M.Cain
| .5696
| TBD
|
| 9/27
| Rockies
| DBacks
| G.Reynolds vs B.Webb
| .7505
| TBD
|
| 9/28
| Dodgers
| Giants
| C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum
| .4998
| TBD
|
| 9/28
| Rockies
| DBacks
| J.Jimenez vs R.Johnson
| .5384
| TBD
|
| 9/29
| DBacks
| Dodgers
| M.Scherzer vs C.Kershaw
| .5499
| TBD
|
| Note: All win probabilities are listed for the Dodgers or Diamondbacks, and for the Dodgers on the 9/29 game.
|
| Team
| Divisions Titles
|
| Dodgers
| 100.00%
|
| DBacks
| 0.00%
|
| 1 million iterations were ran.
|
Update: It's all over folks. The Cardinals defeated the Diamondbacks three times in a row and on September 25th eliminated the Diamondbacks from contention. Good luck to the Dodgers in the playoffs.
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