Simulations for Thursday, April 10th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Cardinals vs Giants	A.Wainwright vs K.Correia	Giants	50.23%	43.48%	NA	Giants
Braves vs Rockies	T.Hudson vs J.Francis	Braves	50.43%	52.38%	NA	ppd.
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	50.23	1441.05
LV Hilton Odds	43.48	1469.77
LV Hilton leads by 1.99%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Wednesday, April 9th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	H.Kuroda vs M.Owings	Dodgers	51.28%	50.00%	NA	DBacks
Padres vs Giants	J.Germano vs J.Sanchez	Padres	53.20%	55.56%	NA	Giants
Braves vs Rockies	C.James vs M.Redman	Braves	50.60%	52.38%	NA	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	144.92	1296.13
LV Hilton Odds	142.06	1327.71
LV Hilton leads by 2.44%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Tuesday, April 8th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	C.Billingsley vs D.Davis	DBacks	54.27%	47.62%	NA	DBacks
Padres vs Giants	R.Wolf vs T.Lincecum	Giants	54.00%	53.49%	NA	Giants
Braves vs Rockies	J.Jurrjens vs U.Jimenez	Braves	50.10%	46.51%	NA	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	158.17	1137.96
LV Hilton Odds	154.60	1173.11
LV Hilton leads by 3.09%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Fri-Sun, April 4-6

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Friday, April 4th
Dodgers vs Padres	H.Kuroda vs J.Germano	Padres	51.20%	51.22%	NA	Dodgers
DBacks vs Rockies	M.Owings vs M.Redman	Rockies	52.56%	53.49%	NA	DBacks
Giants vs Brewers	J.Sanchez vs C.Villanueva	Brewers	61.48%	64.91%	NA	Brewers
Saturday, April 5th
Dodgers vs Padres	B.Penny vs J.Peavy	Padres	52.56%	56.52%	NA	Padres
DBacks vs Rockies	B.Webb vs J.Francis	Rockies	50.36%	48.78%	NA	DBacks
Giants vs Brewers	K.Correia vs M.Parra	Brewers	58.20%	64.91%	NA	Brewers
Sunday, April 6th
Dodgers vs Padres	D.Lowe vs C.Young	Padres	53.52%	57.45%	NA	Dodgers
DBacks vs Rockies	E.Gonzalez vs F.Morales	Rockies	53.40%	57.45%	NA	DBacks
Giants vs Brewers	M.Cain vs B.Sheets	Brewers	59.00%	67.21%	NA	Brewers
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	470.20	667.76
LV Hilton Odds	485.16	687.95
LV Hilton leads by 3.02%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Thursday, April 3rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Cardinals	U.Jimenez vs B.Thompston	Rockies	50.32%	52.38%	NA	Cardinals
Astros vs Padres	S.Chacon vs R.Wolf	Padres	51.00%	57.45%	NA	Padres
DBacks vs Reds	D.Davis vs J.Cueto	Reds	50.44%	53.49%	NA	Reds
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	151.12	516.64
LV Hilton Odds	158.56	529.39
LV Hilton leads by 2.47%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Wednesday, April 2nd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	56.44%	60.00%	NA	Giants
Rockies vs Cardinals	A.Cook vs T.Wellemeyer	Rockies	50.88%	51.22%	NA	Cardinals
Astros vs Padres	W.Rodriguez vs G.Maddux	Padres	52.52%	59.18%	NA	Astros
DBacks vs Reds	D.Haren vs B.Arroyo	Reds	52.80%	48.78%	NA	Reds
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	192.96	323.68
LV Hilton Odds	180.82	348.57
LV Hilton leads by 7.69%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Tuesday, April 1st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	M.Cain vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	59.92%	60.78%	NA	Dodgers
Rockies vs Cardinals	K.Wells vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	52.40%	51.22%	NA	Rockies
Astros vs Padres	B.Backe vs C.Young	Padres	57.72%	66.67%	NA	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	164.84	158.84
LV Hilton Odds	176.23	172.34
LV Hilton leads by 8.5%
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

Simulations for Monday *** Opening Day ***

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	B.Zito vs B.Penny	Dodgers	58.88	60.78	NA	Dodgers
DBacks vs Reds	B.Webb vs A.Harang	Reds	51.80	47.62	NA	DBacks
Rockies vs Cardinals	J.Francis vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	50.28	52.38	NA	ppd.
Astros vs Padres	R.Oswalt vs J.Peavy	Padres	51.76	59.18	NA	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	158.84	0.00
LV Hilton Odds	172.34	0.00
Methods are tied!
Note: Log5 method won't be used until May 1st.

How The West Was Stolen

More of the same of the previous post. This time I throw in the top 2007 base stealers from the other NL West teams.

2007 NL West, BaseRunning Study
Player	Average LI	Ave LI on SB	Ave LI on CS	Total WPA	Runs Added	Linear Weights Wins	Linear Weights Runs	WPA / SB Attempt
Juan Pierre	1.221	1.295	0.946	0.648	6.804	0.726	7.620	0.008
Eric Byrnes	1.149	1.156	1.104	0.419	4.400	0.752	7.900	.0076
Rafael Furcal	1.086	1.061	1.190	0.277	2.909	0.307	3.220	0.009
Rajai Davis	1.371	1.333	1.508	0.179	1.880	0.244	2.560	.0064
Randy Winn	1.353	1.402	1.107	0.172	1.806	0.010	0.103	.0096
Dave Roberts	1.530	1.520	1.597	0.141	1.481	0.432	4.540	.0038
Matt Kemp	1.330	1.473	1.072	0.047	0.494	0.008	0.080	0.003
Omar Vizquel	1.089	1.106	1.053	-.034	-.357	0.055	0.580	-.0018
Russell Martin	1.366	1.377	1.344	-.076	-.798	0.072	0.760	-.003
Willy Taveras	1.280	1.140	1.834	-.186	-1.95	0.366	3.843	-.0043

Stealing Wins

In my latest study I am looking at the stolen base value from the 2007 from the Dodgers top base stealers. What I have done is gone through the 2007 play logs using the wonderful website Fangraphs.Com and looked at the win probability added (WPA) and the leverage index (LI) of each stolen base attempt. I am not including stolen bases of second base as part of the backend of a double steal. I am giving the credit in that case to the runner stealing third base. For each player, I've come up with the total WPA by adding the WPA from stolen bases and subtracting the WPA from unsuccessful attempts (and pickoffs). I've also calculated the average leverage index for each stolen base attempt, to determine which base runners are actually trying to steal meaningful bases the most. A stolen base in a one-one eighth inning tie will have a much higher leverage index than an attempt in a 4-0 2nd inning game. I have selected the Dodgers top four base stealers of 2007 to look at. They are Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp. Please keep in mind that the average Leverage Index is 1.0, anything higher than that is higher leverage and anything below that is lower leverage. Please see the table below.

2007 Dodgers, BaseRunning Study
Player	Average LI	Ave LI on SB	Ave LI on CS	Total WPA	Runs Added	Linear Weights Wins	Linear Weights Runs	WPA / SB Attempt
Juan Pierre	1.221	1.295	0.946	0.648	6.804	0.726	7.620	0.008
Rafael Furcal	1.086	1.061	1.190	0.277	2.909	0.307	3.220	0.009
Russell Martin	1.366	1.377	1.344	-.076	-.798	0.072	0.760	-.003
Matt Kemp	1.330	1.473	1.072	0.047	0.494	0.008	0.080	0.003

Ok, now what does all of this tell us. It says that Juan Pierre's base stealing exploits were worth nearly 6.8 runs or 0.648 wins last year. So while Juan Pierre is about 0.21 wins below "replacement level" as a left fielder his base running abilities are the only thing keeping him in the league.

Russell Martin and Matt Kemp are attempting steals in the highest leveraged situations on average (1.366 and 1.330 respectively). Juan Pierre is a fairly close third and Rafael Furcal a distant 4th. Furcal does a good job of picking and choosing when to steal, but can't always be counted on to steal in a high leverage situation. Russell Martin, while the bravest base stealer on the Dodgers, was not very efficient and probably would've been better off staying put a little more, especially in high leverage situations. Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp had the best success at stealing bases in higher leverage situations and getting caught only in lower leverage situations on average. Rafael Furcal made up a lot of ground by only getting caught 6 times, while swiping 22 bags. Let's take a quick look at the extremes in LI on successful and unsuccessful stolen base attempts.

Player	(High LI) SB	(High LI) CS
Juan Pierre	5.40	1.39
Rafael Furcal	3.04	1.87
Russell Martin	2.97	4.27
Matt Kemp	3.11	1.24

In conclusion the Dodgers have three good base stealers, Pierre, Furcal and Kemp. Russell Martin would be advised not to steal in such high leverage situations. He has a propensity for being caught in high leverage attempts. I see nothing wrong with allowing the other three to steal when appropriate.

Dodgers WAR

WAR or Win Above Replacement, is the favorite method of the sabermetric community in determining the value, measured in the units of wins that a player has over the typical replacement level player. Tango Tiger and the USS Mariner blog both have great write-ups on how to calculate WAR. As an excercise in understanding how to calculate WAR I took to calculating WAR for all of the National League West teams and players. By summing the WAR of all the players on a team and accounting for playing time, one can get an idea of how many wins the team should get.

Please keep in mind that I am no Bill James, so this chart was done to the best of my ability. I do have wiggle room for some of the defense and base running adjustments, but they won't change the values significantly. All of these numbers are based off of 2008 ZIPS Projections and my estimates for playing time, therefore it is not a perfect science.

WAR - Los Angeles Dodgers
Hitters
Player	Playing Time	Park Adj wOBA	Pre-WAR	Pos/Def/BR	WAR	WAR$
R.Martin	0.80	.3537	.9127	3.0/0.0/0.1	3.19	$14.44M
G.Bennett	0.25	.2693	-.9962	3.0/0.0/-0.1	0.48	$2.49M
J.Loney	0.85	.3726	2.006	1.0/0.0/0.1	2.55	$11.64M
M.Sweeney	0.1	.3238	-.8222	1.0/-0.5/-0.1	-0.04	$0.21M
J.Kent	0.70	.3500	.6964	2.0/-0.5/-0.1	1.47	$6.86M
T.Abreu	0.35	.2988	-2.274	2.0/0.0/0.1	-0.06	$0.13M
A.LaRoche	0.60	.3416	.2082	2.0/0.0/0.0	1.32	$6.23M
N.Garciappara	0.50	.3190	-.1.099	2/-0.5/0.0	0.20	$1.28M
R.Furcal	0.85	.3311	-.3989	2.5/0.0/0.1	1.87	$8.63M
A.Ethier	0.65	.3568	1.087	1.5/0.5/0.1	2.07	$9.52M
J.Pierre	0.60	.3084	-1.719	1.5/0.0/1.0	0.47	$2.47M
D.Young	0.25	.3065	-1.829	1.5/-0.5/0.0	-0.21	$-0.51M
A.Jones	0.75	.3592	1.2306	2.5/1.0/0.0	3.55	$16.01M
M.Kemp	0.75	.3611	1.338	1.5/0.5/0.1	2.58	$11.75M
Total					19.46
Pitchers
Player	IP	FIP ERA	PA Lg Ave ERA	RAR	WAR	WAR$
B.Penny	200	3.375	5.135	31.12	2.96	$13.44M
D.Lowe	210	4.105	5.135	24.05	2.29	$10.48M
C.Billingsley	180	4.161	5.135	19.48	1.86	$8.56
H.Kuroda	180	4.067	5.135	21.37	2.04	$9.36M
E.Loaiza	127	4.641	5.135	6.98	0.66	$3.32M
J.Schmidt	82	3.810	5.135	12.08	1.15	$5.46M
H.Guo	78	3.918	5.135	10.55	1.00	$4.82M
T.Saito	66	2.579	5.135	18.75	1.79	$8.26M
J.Broxton	96	2.794	5.135	24.98	2.38	$10.87M
J.Biemel	73	3.967	5.135	9.48	0.90	$4.37M
S.Proctor	93	4.888	5.135	2.55	0.24	$1.47M
R.Seanez	65	4.031	5.135	7.98	0.76	$3.74M
Bullpen	471				7.07451
Rotation	979				10.95968
Total	1450				18.03419

Now let's take a look at how that stacks up with the rest of the NL West teams. Keep in mind that a team comprised only of replacement level players would win about 50 games, therefore to get the total number of wins we need to use the following simple formula (Team WAR = 50 + Offense WAR + Pitching WAR).

NL West - WAR
Team	Hitting WAR	Rotation WAR	Bullpen WAR	Total WAR	Simulator
DBacks	18.44	5.86	13.72	88.03	82.36
Dodgers	19.46	7.07	10.96	87.50	85.88
Rockies	18.67	4.46	6.81	79.95	81.68
Padres	18.03	3.76	8.06	79.84	82.76
Giants	8.26	3.82	9.41	71.49	75.16

AL West - Winter Rankings

AL West - Winter Rankings

Now that the Erik Bedard trade is finalized I can finally finish and publish the AL West rankings. Not surprisingly the Angles finish at the top. Many pundits believe the Mariners are the team if any that could knock off the Angels, especially after the Bedard trade. Well, ZIPS really dislikes the Mariners offense and they finished a surprising last place in this study. The Rangers with a few upgrades to their offense finished a distant second with the A's, who many people have written off because of the players (Haren) they have traded away, finishing 3rd. Since this study does not take playing time or injury possibilities into account you may want to dock the A's a little bit for Rich Harden and the Angels a little bit for a possible pre-season injury to Kelvin Escobar.

Team	LAA	TEX	OAK	SEA	Total
LAA	NA	.5183	.5252	.5466	.5272
TEX	.4817	NA	.5043	.5246	.5033
OAK	.4748	.4957	NA	.5243	.4988
SEA	.4550	.4754	.4757	NA	.4707

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)

Notes: For details of how this simulation study was ran, please see the NL West Rankings post.

NL Central - Best Bullpens

Note: Updated 1/29/08
Time to rank the NL Central bullpens. The method I will use to rank NL Central bullpens is to give each team the same batting lineup and to start each simulated game in the top of the 7th inning with the score tied and the starting pitcher about to be relieved for each team in their opponents half of the 7th inning. This way the only difference between the two teams will be the bullpens. 5000 games are simulated home and away with each team facing each other. Winning percentages are added and then averaged. All games are played in a neutral park environment and of course 2008 ZIPS projections are being used. See the table below for results.

Note: The simulation may output slightly different results if I start in the 6th inning or 8th inning as opposed to the 7th inning. Bullpen depth charts from Rototimes and Yahoo were used in determining bullpen depth chart listings.

Rank	Team	Total
1	STL	.5345
2	HOU	.5122
3	CHC	.4987
4	MIL	.4932
5	PIT	.4848
6	CIN	.4767

No time for an indepth breakdown of these results. If you'd like any further information from this sim study please leave a comment of email me.

AL Central - Winter Rankings

AL Central - Winter Rankings

Next up, the AL Central. The Detroit juggernaught is the pre-season favorite. The addition of Miguel Cabrera along with an already potent lineup and top notch pitching staff will make the Tigers difficult to beat. The Indians may have a chance to do so, but it will take some luck on their part. Sabathia and Carmona are a solid 1-2 but the bottom half of the Indians rotation is suspect. The Twins, with a healthy Liriano should win close to half their games, while the Royals and White Sox will be two of the worst teams in the American League.

Team	DET	CLE	MIN	KC	CWS	Total
DET	NA	.5188	.5268	.5714	.5665	.5459
CLE	.4813	NA	.5073	.5434	.5600	.5230
MIN	.4732	.4927	NA	.5419	.5370	.5112
KC	.4286	.4566	.4681	NA	.5021	.4639
CWS	.4335	.4401	.4630	.4979	NA	.4586

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)

Top 10 Sports Blogs/Sites

I've been meaning to do this for some time, but I'm finally getting around to listing and reviewing my 10 favorite sports related sites. Many of them are traditional blogs and a few other are just plain old sports related sites. I tried to pick a mix of different types of sites/blogs, but I tend to enjoy reading statistically oriented sites.

1) Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman is the creative genius behind Dodger Thoughts. He created it as his "outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers and baseball". Jon is able to combine his proselike writing style with a statistical approach in postulating his thoughts. The hidden (not so much anymore) highlight of the site is the witty, friendly and intelligent community of Dodgers and baseball fans that post almost non-stop at DT (as it is called). A day game chat thread can easily have upwards of 500 to 600 posts. The comment thread from the epic 4+1 2006 game vs the San Diego Padres had quotes that made the bold print of the Sports Illustrated Year in Review edition (yours truly was quoted).

2) FanGraphs FanGraphs is my favorite baseball statistical site. At FanGraphs you can find wide range of statistics and projections for every player current or retired. The specialize in their graphical representation of stats along with the more sabermetric stats that are difficult to find. My favorite feature is the Live Scoreboard, which allows you to view a game in real-time and keep track of things like the leverage index and win probability.

3) Tango Tiger Tango Tiger (Tom Tango) has done some great research in the sabermetric community and has co-written a very good book called The Book, Playing The Percentages In Baseball. There are three different sites I am going to recommend for Tango. First off his is wonderful Message Board, where Tango and others discuss many state of the art sabermetric issues at Baseball Fever. Secondly, is The Book Blog where Tango and MGL (co-author) discuss in great detail more cutting edge baseball statistics. Thirdly, is TangoTiger.Net where Tom stores many of his wonderfully researched work in the sabermetric field.

4) Baseball Think Factory The Baseball Think Factory is where you will find some wonderful articles written by a talented staff of writers often covering the latest transactions in major league baseball. The best part of the site is the pre-season ZIPS Projections that are put out by Dan Szymborski. Each article and list of projections has a comment section that is always worth reading.

5) The Hardball Times The Hardball Times is a site that draws upon some of the best baseball blog writers and offers a series of daily articles which usually draw upon sabermetrically oriented statistics and a historical perspective. The crew over at Hardball Times also puts out a Baseball Annual that is a must read.

6) Vegas Watch If you love sports and you love numbers and you like to dabble in gambling a little bit then you will love Vegas Watch just like I do. Vegas Watch often takes a look at how the Vegas Odds Makers see the sports world we live in, whether it be the odds on the Patriots of going undefeated or college basketball or football poll. You can gaurantee that Vegas Watch will have a couple of very interesting articles to read each week.

7) USS Mariner The USS Mariner is one of the more popular baseball team blogs out there. Blog entries are shared by Dave and DMZ. They have excellent baseball statistical knowledge along the lines of Tango Tiger. I enjoy the way they break down player transactions/trades by taking an indepth look at salaries, service time, wins above replacement etc... It's definitely a viewpoint that you won't get from the mainstream media. One drawback to the site is that the blog owners of USSM can be a little on the snarky side in their comments section. If you don't agree with them or offer a differing opinion or just ask a pertinent question that isn't toeing their line, you will likely get a snarky response, so keep that in mind if you feel like joining one of their discussions in the comment thread.

8) Fantasy Baseball Cafe If you are the least bit serious about Fantasy Baseball, then the Cafe is a must read. At the Cafe you will be able to keep up on the impact that various baseball transactions/injuries may have on the fantasy value of various baseball players. There are forums to ask specific questions, have your team rated, or participate in a pre-season mock draft. If you are looking for a fantasy baseball advantage this is a site you will need to frequent.

9) Baseball Nooz The highlight of Baseball Nooz is it's wonderful Blog Jams, where you are basically bombarded with all of the recent blog entries from some of the best baseball blogs on the internet. It's a great way to see what some of these wonderful bloggers are writing about their favorite teams.

10) Jinaz Reds Justin Jinaz has put together a wonderful Cincinnati Reds blog. Jinaz puts a heavy emphasis on sabermetrics at his site, even offering a wonderful series of articles/primers on sabermetric topics. I am not sure why this site doesn't get more comments, but I know I am a frequent visitor to this site. Keep up the great work!

Special Awards

Best sense of humors
Fire Joe Morgan
Sons of Steve Garvey

NL East - Winter Rankings

Note: This simulation includes Johan Santana as a Met.

NL East - Winter Rankings

For a description for how these rankings/numbers were created, please see the NL West rankings a few posts below.

Team	NYM	ATL	PHI	WAS	FLA	Total
NYM	NA	.5240	.5449	.5632	.5923	.5561
ATL	.4760	NA	.5247	.5389	.5620	.5299
PHI	.4551	.4753	NA	.5332	.5517	.5078
WAS	.4370	.4611	.4668	NA	.5175	.4706
FLA	.4288	.4380	.4483	.4825	NA	.4494

Skinny: The addition of Johan Santana makes the Mets a rather large favorite to win the NL East. The one factor that could possibly bring the Mets back down a little bit is the health and effectiveness of Pedro Martinez. The Braves have a decent offense and a solid top half of the rotation. The Phillies offense is not potent enough to make up for some questionable pitching and the simulator puts them in third place. The Marlins aren't very good, and the Nationals are a team on the rise, though still a long way off from competing in the NL East.

NL West - Best bullpens

Note: Updated 2/7/08
Time to take a break from our divisional ranking series and take a look at which bullpen in the NL West is the strongest. Once again the simulator comes in handy at this task. The method I will use to rank NL West bullpens is to give each team the same batting lineup and to start each simulated game in the top of the 7th inning with the score tied and the starting pitcher about to be relieved for each team in their opponents half of the 7th inning. This way the only difference between the two teams will be the bullpens. 2000 games are simulated home and away with each team facing each other. Winning percentages are added and then averaged. All games are played in a neutral park environment and of course 2008 ZIPS projections are being used. See the table below for results.

Note: The simulation may output slightly different results if I start in the 6th inning or 8th inning as opposed to the 7th inning. Bullpen depth charts from Rototimes and Yahoo were used in determining bullpen depth chart listings.

Rank	Team	Total
1	SD	.5405
2	SF	.5111
3	LAD	.4947
4	COL	.4797
5	ARI	.4739

Skinny: No surprise here with the Padres coming out on top. Surprisingly, the Giants come out a strong 2nd with the Dodgers a solid 3rd. The Rockies and Diamondbacks who have very similar bullpens on paper come out in a statistical tie for 4th/5th place. The Diamondbacks, while one of the strongest teams in the NL West, didn't fair too well.

Bullpen Configurations used:

Type	SD	SF	LAD	COL	ARI
Closer	Hoffman	Wilson	Saito	Corpas	Lyon
#1 Setup	Bell	Hennessey	Broxton	Fuentes	Pena
#2 Setup	Meridith	Kline	Proctor	Vizcaino	Qualls
Middle	Hampton	Messenger	Beimel	Speier	Slaten
Middle	Cameron	Taschner	Brazoban	Herges	Cruz
Long	Ledezma	Correia	Guo	Capellan	Petit

How can the Diamondbacks possibly rank at the bottom in this study, you ask?

Well, let's start off by taking a look at the top three pitchers in each bullpen in the following table (Yes, I like tables).

Team	IP	HR	Hits	SO	BB	HR/9	(K-BB)/IP	WHIP
SD	229	15	216	196	51	.590	.633	1.166
SF	197	17	191	127	85	.777	.213	1.401
LAD	255	28	222	279	85	.988	.761	1.204
ARI	233	22	225	165	70	.850	.408	1.266
COL	213	21	191	173	79	.887	.441	1.268
Note: All stats adjusted to nuetral park.

How about a look at just the top two relievers from each team.

Team	IP	HR	Hits	SO	BB	HR/9	(K-BB)/IP	WHIP
SD	138	8	124	130	36	.522	.681	1.159
SF	146	12	139	98	60	.671	.260	1.363
LAD	162	12	131	195	46	.605	.920	1.093
ARI	149	12	125	98	44	.725	.362	1.134
COL	142	15	124	118	45	.951	.514	1.190
Note: All stats adjusted to nuetral park.

Team Analysis:

Padres: The Padres top half of the bullpen is by far the strongest of any NL West team. They are stingy giving up the long ball and any hits at all. Only the Dodgers fair better in the strikeout and walk ratio category.

Giants: Steve Kline is listed at #3 in their bullpen depth chart and he brings down the Giants numbers in the strikeout and walk ratio and WHIP categories. The Giants top two relievers do a good job of supressing the homerun. It's very interesting that the Giants come out in second place in this analysis when on paper they look like they should come in anywhere from 3rd to 5th.

Dodgers: The Dodgers have an excellent 1-2 punch in Saito and Broxton, then a large drop off to Proctor. The Dodgers will suffer greatly if either Saito or Broxton gets hurt. The Dodgers are the only 1-2-3 bullpen to average over a K per inning (9.847). Scott Proctor drags the Dodgers down quite a bit in the HR/9 category. The Dodgers would benefit greatly from having a more effective pitcher pitch in high leverage innings than Proctor.

Rockies: The Rockies are hurt mainly by their tendancy to give up the long ball, otherwise they are a middle of the road bullpen. They could also use another hard throwing strike out pitcher in their bullpen and perhaps a little bit more control wouldn't hurt.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks bullpen takes a huge hit in the loss/trade of closer Jose Valverde (K/9: 10.91, K-BB/IP: .808). The Diamondbacks bullpen on paper looks very similar to the Rockies bullpen. The Diamondbacks lack an effective southpaw in their bullpen that most of the other teams seem to have. They may suffer in some late game situations if this problem is not remedied. Brandon Lyon, the Diamondbacks new closer does not tend to give up too many homeruns, but he also does not strikeout too many batters either.

Simulation Screenshot

Here is a look at what my simulator GUI looks like. In this one game simulation, the Giants started Tim Lincecum and the Dodgers started Chad Billingsley. Nothing like beating a division rival. :)

If you don't have Superman-vision, you will need to click on the image to enlarge it.

NL Central - Winter Rankings

Hot Off The Press!

NL Central - Winter Rankings

For a description for how these rankings/numbers were created, please see the NL West post below.

Team	CIN	MIL	CHC	HOU	STL	PIT	Total
CIN	NA	.5141	.5066	.5006	.5109	.5411	.51466
MIL	.4859	NA	.5033	.5087	.5183	.5499	.51322
CHC	.4934	.4967	NA	.5023	.5139	.5474	.51074
HOU	.4994	.4913	.4977	NA	.5122	.5486	.50984
STL	.4891	.4817	.4861	.4878	NA	.5185	.49264
PIT	.4589	.4501	.4525	.4514	.4815	NA	.45888

Skinny: Quite a logjam at the top of this division. Three teams, the Reds, Brewers and Cubs all within the margin of error (.005) of the top spot with the Astros right there behind. Then a significant dropoff to the Cardinals and a huge dropoff to the Pirates. The Reds were bouyed by their good showing against the Brewers, they were the only team to outplay the Brewers head to head. For the Reds Harang was an impressive 4-1 against other #1 starters only suffering a close defeat to Gallardo. Bailey was 5-0 at the #4 spot and Volquez was 5-0 at the #5 spot. The Reds get alot of their strength from the tail end of their rotation. Hill and Sheets were the best #2 pitchers, each going 4-1 in H2H matchups. Ted Lilly dominated the #3 spot with a perfect 5-0.

NL West - Winter Rankings

NL West - Winter Rankings (Updated: 1/28/08)

It's been a busy offseason for most of the teams in the competitive NL West. Using my baseball simulator, I am having each NL West team go head to head against every other NL West team. Each team will play 1000 games, both home and away, against every other team, with their #1 starter facing the other teams #1 starter, with the same being done for the #2, #3, #4 and $5 starters. From this I will get an average winning percentage for each matchup. The totals are then added up and averaged, viewable in the table below, sorted from the top to bottom team. Rosters are still not 100% decided and I had to made some assumptions as to which 5th starter to use on some teams. The sim analysis is not taking into account, pitchers that are injury prone and won't likely make every start for their team, so there is some margin of error. During spring training I will run a more thorough sim test. This will do for now. Please leave comments if you feel like it.

Team	LAD	SD	ARI	COL	SF	Total
LAD	NA	.5049	.5256	.5330	.5718	.5338
SD	.4951	NA	.5035	.5301	.5485	.5193
ARI	.4744	.4965	NA	.5084	.5550	.5086
COL	.4670	.4699	.4914	NA	.5263	.4887
SF	.4282	.4515	.4450	.4737	NA	.4496

Skinny: There is a nice separation between all five teams now that ZIPS projections are in for all 5 NL West teams. The Dodgers and Padres matched up evenly head to head. The Dodgers gained some separation with their better performances against the Diamondbacks and Giants. I did not use Jason Schmidt in this sim study, but I did use Randy Johnson. The Dodgers would get a nice boost from Jason Schmidt, as Loaiza would get kicked to the pen. The Diamondbacks would suffer somewhat with the loss of Randy Johnson. The Rockies come down to earth in this study and will be challenged to repeat last years exeptional season. The Giants are a mess!

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)

Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
See comments below...

Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix
	Penny	Lowe	Billingsley	Schmidt	Loaiza	Guo	Houlton	Stults	Kuroda	Peavy
Penny	NA	.3403	.3804	.5192	.7853	.7809	1.1192	.8550	.4605	.9946
Lowe	.3403	NA	.3567	.6444	.3758	.8664	.6239	.4291	.2165	1.2509
Billingsley	.3804	.3567	NA	.2876	.4263	.4818	.6902	.5500	.2408	.8788
Schmidt	.5192	.6444	.2876	NA	.6841	.2102	.9839	.8967	.4509	.4811
Loaiza	.7853	.3758	.4263	.6841	NA	.7995	.2323	.1940	.2691	1.3179
Guo	.7809	.8664	.4818	.2102	.7995	NA	1.0784	1.0710	.6094	.4127
Houlton	1.1193	.6239	.6902	.9839	.2323	1.0784	NA	.1662	.5451	1.7185
Stults	.8550	.4291	.5500	.8967	.1940	1.0710	.1662	NA	.4434	1.6733
Kuroda	.4605	.2165	.2408	.4509	.2691	.6094	.5451	.4434	NA	.9795
Peavy	.9946	1.2509	.8788	.4811	1.3179	.4127	1.7185	1.6733	.9795	NA

You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

Rank	Pitchers	Similarity Score
1	Houlton/Stults	.1662
2	Loaiza/Stults	.1940
3	Schmidt/Guo	.2102
4	Lowe/Kuroda	.2165
5	Loaiza/Houlton	.2323
6	Billingsley/Kuroda	.2408
7	Loaiza/Kuroda	.2691
8	Billingsley/Schmidt	.2876
9	Penny/Lowe	.3403
10	Lowe/Billingsley	.3567

2008 Player Projections

Matt Kemp
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	M.Kemp	.322	.365	.508	.873
CHONE	M.Kemp	.289	.337	.467	.804
ZIPS	M.Kemp	.303	.348	.483	.831
Marcel	M.Kemp	.311	.356	.490	.846
PECOTA	M.Kemp	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Jeff Kent
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Kent	.290	.368	.486	.854
CHONE	J.Kent	.273	.356	.452	.808
ZIPS	J.Kent	.268	.352	.444	.796
Marcel	J.Kent	.281	.362	.464	.826
PECOTA	J.Kent	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andre Ethier
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Ethier	.304	.371	.477	.847
CHONE	A.Ethier	.279	.348	.436	.784
ZIPS	A.Ethier	.288	.357	.459	.816
Marcel	A.Ethier	.295	.361	.466	.827
PECOTA	A.Ethier	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Russell Martin
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Martin	.292	.379	.456	.835
CHONE	R.Martin	.282	.376	.438	.814
ZIPS	R.Martin	.280	.365	.432	.797
Marcel	R.Martin	.293	.371	.459	.830
PECOTA	R.Martin	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andy LaRoche
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.LaRoche	.275	.367	.458	.825
CHONE	A.LaRoche	.268	.356	.455	.811
ZIPS	A.LaRoche	.256	.343	.431	.774
Marcel	A.LaRoche	.265	.354	.413	.767
PECOTA	A.LaRoche	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
James Loney
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Loney	.302	.359	.465	.823
CHONE	J.Loney	.284	.347	.431	.778
ZIPS	J.Loney	.296	.350	.470	.820
Marcel	J.Loney	.315	.372	.514	.886
PECOTA	J.Loney	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andruw Jones
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Jones	.253	.343	.491	.834
CHONE	A.Jones	.249	.345	.491	.836
ZIPS	A.Jones	.249	.344	.503	.847
Marcel	A.Jones	.248	.337	.479	.816
PECOTA	A.Jones	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Nomar Garciappara
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	N.Garciappara	.292	.347	.451	.798
CHONE	N.Garciappara	.282	.340	.423	.763
ZIPS	N.Garciappara	.268	.329	.384	.713
Marcel	N.Garciappara	.281	.336	.425	.761
PECOTA	N.Garciappara	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Rafael Furcal
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Furcal	.286	.352	.403	.755
CHONE	R.Furcal	.277	.348	.394	.742
ZIPS	R.Furcal	.276	.346	.387	.733
Marcel	R.Furcal	.281	.348	.407	.755
PECOTA	R.Furcal	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Delwyn Young
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
CHONE	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
ZIPS	D.Young	.255	.295	.408	.703
Marcel	D.Young	.286	.350	.464	.815
PECOTA	D.Young	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Tony Abreu
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	T.Abreu	.288	.332	.399	.731
CHONE	T.Abreu	.275	.321	.394	.715
ZIPS	T.Abreu	.267	.313	.362	.675
Marcel	T.Abreu	.280	.337	.433	.770
PECOTA	T.Abreu	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Juan Pierre
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Pierre	.298	.343	.361	.703
CHONE	J.Pierre	.288	.333	.363	.696
ZIPS	J.Pierre	.277	.318	.347	.665
Marcel	J.Pierre	.284	.329	.370	.699
PECOTA	J.Pierre	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

Pitchers

Brad Penny
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	195	6.42	2.24	0.39	0.74	3.83	1.33
CHONE	195	6.18	1.97	0.34	0.83	4.11	1.38
ZIPS	200	6.39	2.33	0.41	0.72	3.82	1.33
Baseball HQ	203	6.10	1.96	0.33	0.9	3.90	1.36
Derek Lowe
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	212	5.69	1.96	0.34	0.81	3.78	1.31
CHONE	207	5.96	2.21	0.36	0.78	3.70	1.30
ZIPS	210	5.79	2.33	0.37	0.94	3.99	1.30
Baseball HQ	218	5.90	2.31	0.37	0.7	3.84	1.31
Chad Billingsley
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	185	8.66	2.09	0.50	0.88	3.79	1.35
CHONE	147	8.51	2.11	0.50	1.04	3.98	1.37
ZIPS	180	7.70	1.97	0.42	0.95	4.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	189	8.30	2.05	0.47	0.8	3.52	1.32
Jason Schmidt
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	145	8.63	2.48	0.57	0.81	3.41	1.25
CHONE	117	7.54	1.92	0.40	1.08	4.15	1.38
ZIPS	119	8.55	2.26	0.53	0.91	4.08	1.36
Baseball HQ	145	7.8	1.92	0.41	1.20	4.41	1.41
Esteban Loaiza
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	120	6.15	2.41	0.40	1.05	4.35	1.39
CHONE	126	5.93	1.93	0.32	1.14	4.57	1.40
ZIPS	127	6.38	1.48	0.37	1.28	4.89	1.43
Baseball HQ	174	4.80	1.48	0.17	1.20	4.91	1.51
Hiroki Kuroda
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	181	6.81	2.80	0.49	1.04	3.78	1.23
ZIPS	180	5.70	3.08	0.43	1.05	3.92	1.24
Baseball HQ	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
HongZhi Guo
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	66	9.00	2.28	0.56	0.95	4.09	1.38
ZIPS	78	9.23	2.42	0.60	1.04	4.38	1.37
Baseball HQ	73	10.90	2.51	0.73	0.60	4.32	1.35
D.J. Houlton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	34	6.88	2.00	0.38	1.32	4.76	1.44
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	138	6.37	1.83	0.32	1.50	5.15	1.46
Baseball HQ	44	5.50	1.35	0.16	1.40	5.32	1.84
Eric Stults
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	53	7.30	2.05	0.42	1.02	5.26	1.57
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	147	6.31	1.81	0.31	1.29	5.14	1.50
Baseball HQ	29	6.20	1.54	0.24	0.60	4.34	1.52
Takashi Saito
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	68	9.00	3.78	0.74	0.93	3.31	1.13
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	66	10.91	4.44	0.94	0.68	2.05	1.00
Baseball HQ	58	10.4	4.19	0.88	0.90	2.79	1.03
Jonathon Broxton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	83	11.17	3.32	0.87	0.54	3.04	1.19
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	96	10.7	3.97	0.90	0.75	2.91	1.14
Baseball HQ	58	10.9	3.89	0.90	0.60	2.64	1.12
Joe Beimel
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	66	5.05	1.37	0.15	0.68	4.09	1.45
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	73	5.18	1.68	0.23	0.62	3.95	1.37
Baseball HQ	44	4.90	1.50	0.18	0.80	4.30	1.36
Eric Hull
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	8.25	2.06	0.47	0.88	4.00	1.39
Baseball HQ	29	8.10	1.86	0.41	0.60	3.72	1.72
Rudy Seanez
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	78	9.69	2.33	0.62	1.04	4.15	1.41
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	65	9.28	2.39	0.60	1.11	4.15	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	8.20	2.00	0.45	1.00	3.90	1.36
Scott Proctor
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	80	7.65	2.06	0.44	1.46	4.50	1.38
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	93	8.13	2.15	0.48	1.55	4.65	1.40
Baseball HQ	58	6.80	1.69	0.31	1.40	4.34	1.48
Jonathon Meloan
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	9.50	2.38	0.61	1.75	5.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	9.80	2.09	0.57	1.00	3.89	1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study

Simulation picks World Series Champion

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox on winning the 2007 World Series, and congratulations to my simulator for correctly picking (on February 13th) the Red Sox to be the champions.

What's next for the simulator? There will be some improvements made to the simulator and some study done on what statistics to use as input into the simulator as to best compete with the Las Vegas sports books. Las Vegas outperformed the simulator by 1.12% during the regular season. This is a very slim margin, but I hope to narrow that number to as close as zero as I can using sound methodology.

I will be making less frequent posts during the offseason, but will still be running some studies and posting them here when available.

And don't forget to pickup one of the professionally designed Dodger Sims T-Shirts available online.

Simulations for Sunday, October 28th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Rockies	J.Lester vs A.Cook	Rockies	56.81	42.55	56.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Simulations for Saturday, October 27th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Rockies	D.Matsuzaka vs J.Fogg	Rockies	51.85	43.29	56.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.15	80.43%
LV Hilton Odds	56.71	89.23
Log5 Method	43.18	84.11
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 25th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Red Sox	U.Jimenez vs C.Schilling	Rockies	51.85	34.84%	35.33	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.15	Red Sox 64.20%
LV Hilton Odds	65.16	Red Sox 78.45%
Log5 Method	64.67	Red Sox 73.24%
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Wednesday, October 24th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Red Sox	J.Francis vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.10	67.21	64.67	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	52.10	Rockies 51.00%
LV Hilton Odds	67.21	Red Sox 66.00%
Log5 Method	64.67	Red Sox 62.10%
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 21st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	J.Westbrook vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	51.00	60.78	58.29	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	51.00
LV Hilton Odds	60.78
Log5 Method	58.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 20th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	F.Carmona vs C.Schilling	Indians	50.77	44.44	41.71	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	49.23
LV Hilton Odds	55.56
Log5 Method	58.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 18th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Indians	J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia	Indians	51.48	46.51	58.46	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.52
LV Hilton Odds	53.49
Log5 Method	41.54
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Tuesday, October 16th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Indians	T.Wakefield vs P.Byrd	Red Sox	52.60	50.00	41.54	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.40
LV Hilton Odds	50.00
Log5 Method	58.46
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Monday, October 15th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Rockies	M.Owings vs F.Morales	Rockies	52.60	62.69	Rockies
Red Sox vs Indians	D.Matsuzaka vs J.Westbrook	Red Sox	50.76	53.49	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	101.84
LV Hilton Odds	109.20
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 14th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Rockies	L.Hernandez vs J.Fogg	Rockies	58.40	59.18	TBD
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	58.40
LV Hilton Odds	59.18
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 13th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	F.Carmona vs C.Schilling	Indians	51.16	43.48	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	51.16
LV Hilton Odds	43.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Friday, October 12th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	U.Jimenez vs D.Davis	Rockies	57.50	48.78	Rockies
Indians vs Red Sox	C.Sabathia vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.45	59.51	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	109.95
LV Hilton Odds	108.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 11th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	J.Francis vs B.Webb	DBacks	52.08	55.56	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.92
LV Hilton Odds	44.44
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Monday, October 8th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Indians vs Yankees	P.Byrd vs C.Wang	Yankees	61.35	TBD	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 7th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Red Sox vs Angels	C.Schilling vs J.Weaver	Angels	51.00	TBD	Red Sox
Indians vs Yankees	J.Westbrook vs R.Clemens	Yankees	57.70	TBD	Yankees
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 6th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Cubs	L.Hernandez vs R.Hill	Cubs	61.20	TBD	DBacks
Phillies vs Rockies	J.Moyer vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	61.35	60.00	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Friday, October 5th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Yankees vs Indians	A.Pettitte vs F.Carmona	Yankees	53.45	TBD	Indians
Angels vs Red Sox	K.Escobar vs D.Matsuzaka	Angels	52.30	40.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9189.54
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9292.59
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 4th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Phillies	F.Morales vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	54.90	59.18	Rockies
Yankees vs Indians	C.Wang vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	53.50	50.00	Indians
Cubs vs DBacks	T.Lilly vs D.Davis	Cubs	54.40	55.56	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	137.20	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	135.26	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.16%

Simulations for Wednesday, October 3rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Phillies	J.Francis vs C.Hamels	Phillies	50.45	58.33	Rockies
Angels vs Red Sox	J.Lackey vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.40	60.00	Red Sox
Cubs vs DBacks	C.Zambrano vs B.Webb	DBacks	52.80	56.33	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	154.75	8897.59
LV Hilton Odds	158.00	8999.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.14%

Simulations for Monday, October 1st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Rockies	J.Peavy vs J.Fogg	Rockies	50.65	42.55	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	50.65	8846.94
LV Hilton Odds	42.55	8956.78
LV Hilton leads by 1.24%

2007 DodgerSims Awards

Award winners will be announced September 30th, following the last regular season game.

Award	Nominees
MVP	J.Loney
Cy Young	T.Saito
Best Fielder	J.Loney
Best Rookie	J.Loney
Most Improved	R.Martin
Team Leader	R.Martin
Biggest Surprise	M.Kemp
Biggest Disappointment	N.Garciappara
Biggest Jerk	J.Kent
Top Hitting Prospect	A.LaRoche
Top Pitching Prospect	C.Kershaw
Biggest Money Suck	J.Pierre
Worst In-Season Move	W.Betemit trade
Notes: All awards are based on subjectivity on my part.

Simulations for Sunday, September 30th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	B.Zito vs E.Stults	Dodgers	61.00	48.78	Giants
Padres vs Brewers	B.Tomko vs J.Suppan	Brewers	60.80	50.00	Brewers
DBacks vs Rockies	D.Davis vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	57.85	68.25	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	157.65	8689.29
LV Hilton Odds	169.47	8787.31
LV Hilton leads by 1.13%

Simulations for Saturday, September 29th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	T.Blackley vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	68.70	63.64	Dodgers
Padres vs Brewers	C.Young vs D.Bush	Padres	50.50	59.18	Brewers
DBacks vs Rockies	E.Gonzalez vs M.Redman	DBacks	50.30	40.82	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	167.90	8521.39
LV Hilton Odds	181.94	8605.37
LV Hilton leads by 0.99%

Simulations for Friday, September 28th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	K.Correia vs D.Wells	Dodgers	59.85	52.38	TBD
Padres vs Brewers	G.Maddux vs C.Capuano	Brewers	53.30	54.55	Padres
DBacks vs Rockies	B.Webb vs J.Francis	Rockies	51.40	53.49	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	8521.39
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	8605.37
LV Hilton leads by 0.99%

Simulations for Thursday, September 27th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	F.Morales vs E.Loaiza	Dodgers	55.15	47.62	Rockies
Padres vs Brewers	J.Cassel vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	64.70	62.26	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	80.15	8441.24
LV Hilton Odds	90.12	8515.25
LV Hilton leads by 0.84%

Simulations for Wednesday, September 26th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	J.Fogg vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	58.25	56.71	Rockies
Padres vs Giants	J.Peavy vs P.Misch	Padres	58.80	66.10	Padres
DBacks vs Pirates	L.Hernandez vs M.Morris	Pirates	50.55	46.08	Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	151.10	8290.14
LV Hilton Odds	155.47	8359.78
LV Hilton leads by 0.84%

Simulations for Tuesday, September 25th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs B.Penny	Dodgers	60.40	59.18	Rockies
Padres vs Giants	B.Tomko vs M.Cain	Giants	53.05	42.55	Padres
DBacks vs Pirates	D.Davis vs I.Snell	Pirates	52.60	50.00	Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	139.15	8150.99
LV Hilton Odds	148.27	8211.51
LV Hilton leads by 0.74%

Simulations for Monday, September 24th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Giants	C.Young vs B.Zito	Padres	57.80	55.95	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	42.20	8108.79
LV Hilton Odds	44.05	8167.46
LV Hilton leads by 0.72%

Simulations for Sunday, September 23rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	C.Billingsley vs E.Gonzalez	Dodgers	53.15	52.38	Dodgers
Rockies vs Padres	J.Francis vs G.Maddux	Padres	52.85	55.56	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	100.30	8008.49
LV Hilton Odds	96.82	8070.64
LV Hilton leads by 0.73%

Simulations for Saturday, September 22nd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	D.Wells vs B.Webb	DBacks	58.80	66.10	DBacks
Rockies vs Padres	M.Redman vs J.Cassel	Padres	59.40	57.45	Rockies
Reds vs Giants	B.Arroyo vs K.Correia	Giants	53.45	48.78	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	152.85	7855.64
LV Hilton Odds	157.43	7913.21
LV Hilton leads by 0.73%

Simulations for Friday, September 21st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	E.Loaiza vs L.Hernandez	Dodgers	51.60	45.45	DBacks
Rockies vs Padres	F.Morales vs J.Peavy	Padres	62.10	66.67	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	86.30	7769.34
LV Hilton Odds	87.88	7825.33
LV Hilton leads by 0.76%

Simulations for Thursday, September 20th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies	D.Lowe vs U.Jimenez	Dodgers	50.07	46.51	Rockies
Reds vs Giants	H.Bailey vs M.Cain	Giants	54.05	60.78	Reds
Pirates vs Padres	M.Morris vs B.Tomko	Padres	56.90	60.78	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	152.78	7616.56
LV Hilton Odds	153.49	7671.84
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Wednesday, September 19th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies	B.Penny vs J.Fogg	Dodgers	52.10	55.95	Rockies
Giants vs DBacks	B.Zito vs D.Davis	DBacks	55.00	56.52	DBacks
Pirates vs Padres	I.Snell vs C.Young	Padres	66.55	61.54	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	169.45	7447.11
LV Hilton Odds	162.11	7509.73
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Tuesday, September 18th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Francis	Rockies	50.30	53.70	Rockies
Dodgers vs Rockies	D.Wells vs M.Redman	Dodgers	52.50	52.83	Rockies
Giants vs DBacks	J.Sanchez vs M.Owings	DBacks	61.80	60.32	DBacks
Pirates vs Padres	T.Gorzelanny vs G.Maddux	Padres	61.25	57.45	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	220.85	7226.26
LV Hilton Odds	218.64	7291.09
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Monday, September 17th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs DBacks	K. Correia vs B.Webb	DBacks	63.65	68.25	Giants
Pirates vs Padres	J. Van Benschoten vs J.Cassel	Padres	59.60	60.78	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	95.95	7226.26
LV Hilton Odds	92.53	7291.09
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Sunday, September 16th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	E.Gonzalez vs E.Loaiza	Dodgers	57.05	57.44	Dodgers
Giants vs Padres	T.Lincecum vs J.Peavy	Padres	63.55	62.96	Padres
Marlins vs Rockies	S.Olsen vs F.Morales	Rockies	51.35	58.33	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	171.95	7054.31
LV Hilton Odds	178.73	7112.36
LV Hilton leads by 0.82%

Simulations for Saturday, September 15th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	L.Hernandez vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	63.60	60.00	Dodgers
Giants vs Padres	M.Cain vs B.Tomko	Padres	53.25	50.00	Padres
Marlins vs Rockies	S.Mitre vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	52.50	60.78	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	164.35	6889.96
LV Hilton Odds	149.22	6963.14

Simulations for Friday, September 14th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	D.Davis vs B.Penny	Dodgers	64.95	60.78	TBD
Giants vs Padres	B.Zito vs C.Young	Padres	61.75	60.78	Padres
Marlins vs Rockies	D.Willis vs J.Fogg	Rockies	53.35	56.90	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	6889.96
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	6963.14

Simulations for Thursday, September 13th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Dodgers	G.Maddux vs D.Wells	Dodgers	55.20	54.55	Dodgers
Rockies vs Phillies	J.Francis vs J.Durbin	Phillies	50.15	47.62	Phillies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	105.35	6784.61
LV Hilton Odds	102.17	6860.97