Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected total runs
| Away | Home | Away SP | Home SP | Fave | ML | ML | Win % | O/U | Over Vig | Under Vig | Over % | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | TEX | Jarred Cosart | Tony Scheppers | TEX | -158 | 153 | 60.86 | 9.5 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 9.47 |
| TOR | BAL | Dustin Hutchison | Bud Norris | BAL | -119 | 114 | 53.81 | 9 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 8.76 |
| BOS | NYA | John Lackey | Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | -110 | 105 | 51.81 | 8.5 | -109 | -101 | 50.98 | 8.46 |
| CLE | CHA | Justin Masterson | Felix Paulino | CLE | -127 | 122 | 55.46 | 8 | -122 | 112 | 53.92 | 8.14 |
| LAN | ARI | Zack Greinke | Wade Miley | LAN | -129 | 124 | 55.85 | 8 | -112 | 102 | 51.69 | 8.00 |
| PIT | MIL | Edinson Volquez | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | -152 | 147 | 59.92 | 8 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 7.97 |
| MIA | PHI | Nathan Eovaldi | John Pettibone | PHI | -113 | 108 | 52.49 | 8 | -105 | -105 | 50.00 | 7.90 |
| COL | SF | Brian Anderson | Matt Cain | SF | -138 | 133 | 57.54 | 7.5 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.54 |
| KC | MIN | James Shields | Ricky Nolasco | KC | -144 | 139 | 58.59 | 7.5 | -107 | -103 | 50.50 | 7.43 |
| TB | CIN | Alex Cobb | Alfredo Simon | TB | -128 | 123 | 55.65 | 7.5 | 100 | -110 | 48.78 | 7.33 |
| NYN | LAA | Jonathan Niese | Jered Weaver | LAA | -163 | 157 | 61.54 | 7.5 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 7.26 |
| OAK | SEA | Sonny Gray | Erasmo Ramirez | OAK | -114 | 109 | 52.72 | 7.5 | 112 | -122 | 46.08 | 7.16 |
| WAS | ATL | Tyler Jordan | Alex Wood | ATL | -126 | 121 | 55.26 | 7 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.04 |
| CHN | STL | Carlos Villanueva | Adam Wainwright | STL | -213 | 203 | 67.53 | 7 | 109 | -119 | 46.73 | 6.70 |
| DET | SD | Justin Verlander | Ian Kennedy | DET | -131 | 126 | 56.24 | 6.5 | 107 | -117 | 47.17 | 6.23 |
Game Listings: Ranked by biggest to smallest win expectancies
| Away | Home | Away SP | Home SP | Fave | ML | ML | Win % | O/U | Over Vig | Under Vig | Over % | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | STL | Carlos Villanueva | Adam Wainwright | STL | -213 | 203 | 67.53 | 7 | 109 | -119 | 46.73 | 6.70 |
| NYN | LAA | Jonathan Niese | Jered Weaver | LAA | -163 | 157 | 61.54 | 7.5 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 7.26 |
| HOU | TEX | Jarred Cosart | Tony Scheppers | TEX | -158 | 153 | 60.86 | 9.5 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 9.47 |
| PIT | MIL | Edinson Volquez | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | -152 | 147 | 59.92 | 8 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 7.97 |
| KC | MIN | James Shields | Ricky Nolasco | KC | -144 | 139 | 58.59 | 7.5 | -107 | -103 | 50.50 | 7.43 |
| COL | SF | Brian Anderson | Matt Cain | SF | -138 | 133 | 57.54 | 7.5 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.54 |
| DET | SD | Justin Verlander | Ian Kennedy | DET | -131 | 126 | 56.24 | 6.5 | 107 | -117 | 47.17 | 6.23 |
| LAN | ARI | Zack Greinke | Wade Miley | LAN | -129 | 124 | 55.85 | 8 | -112 | 102 | 51.69 | 8.00 |
| TB | CIN | Alex Cobb | Alfredo Simon | TB | -128 | 123 | 55.65 | 7.5 | 100 | -110 | 48.78 | 7.33 |
| CLE | CHA | Justin Masterson | Felix Paulino | CLE | -127 | 122 | 55.46 | 8 | -122 | 112 | 53.92 | 8.14 |
| WAS | ATL | Tyler Jordan | Alex Wood | ATL | -126 | 121 | 55.26 | 7 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.04 |
| TOR | BAL | Dustin Hutchison | Bud Norris | BAL | -119 | 114 | 53.81 | 9 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 8.76 |
| OAK | SEA | Sonny Gray | Erasmo Ramirez | OAK | -114 | 109 | 52.72 | 7.5 | 112 | -122 | 46.08 | 7.16 |
| MIA | PHI | Nathan Eovaldi | John Pettibone | PHI | -113 | 108 | 52.49 | 8 | -105 | -105 | 50.00 | 7.90 |
| BOS | NYA | John Lackey | Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | -110 | 105 | 51.81 | 8.5 | -109 | -101 | 50.98 | 8.46 |
2 comments:
How do you convert over under run total probabilities to expected total runs?
I have an algorithm that estimates it based off of past empirical data. It is just that though, an estimate - but I'm confident it is pretty accurate but not exact of course. Great question. :)
Post a Comment