Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Matt Cain vs Clayton Kershaw

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 56.17%
Giants on average score 2.87 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.22 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.09

Starting Pitching Lines:
Matt Cain - 6.4ip, 6.2so, 1.7bb, 6.3hits, 0.5hrs, 100pitches, 3.101fip
Clayton Kershaw - 6.6ip, 8.2so, 1.9bb, 5.5hits, 0.4hrs, 104pitches, 2.383fip

Giants player most likely to hit a HR: Buster Posey
Dodgers player most likely to hit a HR: Matt Kemp

Giants hitter most strikeouts: Brandon Belt (1.6 times)
Dodgers hitter most strikeouts: Matt Kemp (1.2 times)

Giants hitter most walks: Buster Posey (0.433 times)
Dodgers hitter most walks: AJ Ellis (0.447 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 59.76%
Over/Under: 6 -115o +105u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Dodgers 1-0
4. Giants 2-1
5. Giants 3-2
6. Dodgers 4-3
7. Dodgers 3-1
8. Dodgers 2-0
9. Giants 1-0
10. Giants 3-1
11. Dodgers 3-0
12. Giants 4-3
13. Dodgers 4-2
14. Giants 2-0
15. Dodgers 4-1
16. Giants 4-2
17. Dodgers 5-4
18. Dodgers 4-0
19. Giants 4-1
20. Giants 3-0
.
.
100. Dodgers 9-8

MLB Simulation Results - March 31st

Away	Home	Favorite	Vegas ML	Vegas Win Exp	Vegas Total Runs	Sim Win Exp	Sim Total Runs
Texas	Houston	Texas	-160 / +150	60.78%	8.5 o100, u-120	59.66%	7.75

Most Likely Final Scores

1 HOU 3-2 6:1		51 TEX 7-6 37:1
2 TEX 3-2 7:1		52 TEX 8-4 37:1
3 HOU 2-1 7:1		53 TEX 9-2 40:1
4 HOU 4-3 7:1		54 TEX 9-3 43:1
5 TEX 2-1 8:1		55 HOU 5-0 44:1
6 TEX 4-3 8:1		56 HOU 7-4 44:1
7 TEX 4-2 9:1		57 HOU 7-3 47:1
8 TEX 3-1 9:1		58 TEX 9-1 47:1
9 HOU 5-4 11:1		59 TEX 8-5 47:1
10 TEX 4-1 11:1		60 HOU 7-5 47:1
11 TEX 5-3 12:1		61 HOU 7-2 49:1
12 TEX 5-2 12:1		62 TEX 8-0 50:1
13 TEX 5-4 12:1		63 TEX 9-4 56:1
14 HOU 3-1 12:1		64 TEX 8-6 59:1
15 HOU 4-2 13:1		65 HOU 7-1 59:1
16 TEX 2-0 14:1		66 HOU 6-0 63:1
17 TEX 5-1 14:1		67 TEX 10-2 63:1
18 HOU 1-0 15:1		68 TEX 10-3 66:1
19 TEX 1-0 15:1		69 HOU 8-7 66:1
20 TEX 3-0 16:1		70 TEX 10-1 68:1
21 TEX 6-3 16:1		71 TEX 9-0 68:1
22 TEX 6-2 16:1		72 TEX 9-5 74:1
23 HOU 5-3 16:1		73 HOU 8-2 76:1
24 HOU 4-1 17:1		74 TEX 8-7 76:1
25 TEX 6-4 18:1		75 HOU 8-3 77:1
26 TEX 6-1 18:1		76 HOU 8-4 79:1
27 HOU 6-5 18:1		77 HOU 8-5 82:1
28 TEX 4-0 18:1		78 TEX 10-4 85:1
29 HOU 5-2 19:1		79 TEX 11-2 89:1
30 HOU 2-0 19:1		80 TEX 9-6 94:1
31 TEX 6-5 20:1		81 HOU 8-6 94:1
32 TEX 5-0 22:1		82 HOU 8-1 97:1
33 TEX 7-2 22:1		83 HOU 7-0 98:1
34 HOU 3-0 22:1		84 TEX 10-0 99:1
35 TEX 7-3 23:1		85 TEX 10-5 100:1
36 TEX 7-1 24:1		86 TEX 11-1 104:1
37 TEX 7-4 25:1		87 TEX 11-3 106:1
38 HOU 5-1 26:1		88 TEX 11-4 120:1
39 HOU 6-4 26:1		89 HOU 9-3 120:1
40 TEX 6-0 26:1		90 HOU 9-2 124:1
41 HOU 6-3 27:1		91 TEX 9-7 128:1
42 TEX 8-2 30:1		92 HOU 9-4 132:1
43 HOU 6-2 31:1		93 TEX 11-0 135:1
44 TEX 7-5 31:1		94 TEX 12-2 135:1
45 HOU 4-0 31:1		95 TEX 10-6 144:1
46 TEX 8-3 33:1		96 TEX 12-3 145:1
47 TEX 8-1 33:1		97 HOU 9-8 145:1
48 HOU 7-6 34:1		98 HOU 8-0 152:1
49 TEX 7-0 35:1		99 HOU 9-1 156:1
50 HOU 6-1 37:1		100 TEX 12-1 159:1

Dodgers Best Lineup

With Hanley Ramirez starting the season on the DL, the Dodgers will have to make some changes to their starting lineup and with these changes comes the question of what their most productive lineup is.  I used my simulator to figure out just that.  I used 2013 Bill James projections as input and for this exercise I had the simulator come up with the most productive lineup against RHP.  I assumed that the Dodgers would start Nick Punto at 3B against RHP and I am not about to project Puig as a starter yet.  Here is the best lineup that it found.

1. Carl Crawford  (L)
2. Matt Kemp
3. Adrian Gonzalez  (L)
4. Andre Ethier  (L)
5. Luiz Cruz
6. Mark Ellis
7. Nick Punto  (S)
8. A.J. Ellis
9. Pitchers Spot

I was surprised to see that batting the pitcher 8th was no longer the best option.  I suppose having a weak hitter like Nick Punto in the lineup put a damper on that strategy.