Sunday, March 31, 2013

Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulation Results


Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Matt Cain vs Clayton Kershaw

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 56.17%
Giants on average score 2.87 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.22 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.09

Starting Pitching Lines:
Matt Cain - 6.4ip, 6.2so, 1.7bb, 6.3hits, 0.5hrs, 100pitches, 3.101fip
Clayton Kershaw - 6.6ip, 8.2so, 1.9bb, 5.5hits, 0.4hrs, 104pitches, 2.383fip

Giants player most likely to hit a HR: Buster Posey
Dodgers player most likely to hit a HR: Matt Kemp

Giants hitter most strikeouts: Brandon Belt (1.6 times)
Dodgers hitter most strikeouts: Matt Kemp (1.2 times)

Giants hitter most walks: Buster Posey (0.433 times)
Dodgers hitter most walks: AJ Ellis (0.447 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 59.76%
Over/Under: 6 -115o +105u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Dodgers 1-0
4. Giants 2-1
5. Giants 3-2
6. Dodgers 4-3
7. Dodgers 3-1
8. Dodgers 2-0
9. Giants 1-0
10. Giants 3-1
11. Dodgers 3-0
12. Giants 4-3
13. Dodgers 4-2
14. Giants 2-0
15. Dodgers 4-1
16. Giants 4-2
17. Dodgers 5-4
18. Dodgers 4-0
19. Giants 4-1
20. Giants 3-0
.
.
100. Dodgers 9-8






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