Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #5 Simulation

November 1st Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Rangers	T.Lincecum vs C.Lee	Rangers	62.26%	57.96%	SF 3-1

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Final Post-Season ROI: 42.07%

Simulation details at
Lonestar Ball
McCovey Chronicles

MLB Scoreboard

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #4 Simulation

October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Rangers	M.Bumgarner vs T.Hunter	Rangers	59.12%	45.62%	SF 4-0

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 30.55%

Simulation details at

MLB Scoreboard

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #3 Simulation

October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Rangers	J.Sanchez vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.51%	56.15%	TEX 4-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

Simulation details at Lonestar Ball
Simulation details at McCovey Chronicles
Simulation details at Beyond The Boxscore

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #2 Simulation

October 28th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Giants	C.Wilson vs M.Cain	Giants	52.38%	52.04%	SF 9-0

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #1 Simulation

October 27th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Giants	C.Lee vs T.Lincecum	Rangers	54.34%	46.76%	SF 11-7

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 28.98%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Game #6 Simulation

October 23rd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Phillies	J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	60.63%	56.07%	SF 3-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 24.72%

MLB Scoreboard

ALCS Game #6 Simulation

October 22nd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Rangers	P.Hughes vs C.Lewis	Yankees	51.46%	42.68%	TEX 6-1

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 18.36%

MLB Scoreboard

Giant Close-Out Game

October 21th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Giants	R.Halladay vs T.Lincecum	Giants	52.94%	48.25%	PHI 4-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 23.31%

MLB Scoreboard

League Championship Series Simulations

October 20th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Giants	J.Blanton vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	52.15%	55.93%	SF 6-5
Rangers	Yankees	C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	62.48%	57.45%	NYA 7-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 25.29%

MLB Scoreboard

League Championship Series Simulations

October 19th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs M.Cain	Phillies	52.15%	48.50%	SF 3-0
Rangers	Yankees	T.Hunter vs A.Burnett	Yankees	58.16%	66.80%	TEX 10-3

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 35.66%

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Yankees, ALCS Game #3 Simulation

October 18th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Yankees	C.Lee vs A.Pettitte	Rangers	51.46%	57.80%	TEX 8-0

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 29.60%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Game #2, Giants vs Phillies

October 17th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Phillies	J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	60.24%	64.86%	PHI 6-1

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 26.51%

MLB Scoreboard

League Championship Series Simulations

October 16th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Phillies	T.Lincecum vs R.Halladay	Phillies	61.17%	58.38%	SF 4-3
Yankees	Rangers	P.Hughes vs C.Lewis	Yankees	53.16%	45.73%	TEX 7-2

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

ALCS Game #1, Yankees vs Rangers

October 15th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Rangers	C.Sabathia vs C.Wilson	Yankees	58.07%	48.62%	NYA 6-5

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Preview, Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..

The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?

To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.

Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.

Date	Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Giants Win Prob	Actual
4/11	Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum	65.87%	Win
4/17	Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger	60.78%	Win
4/23	Cardinals	Giants	J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum	61.98%	Win
4/28	Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum	61.83%	Loss
5/4	Giants	Marlins	T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez	62.83%	Win
5/9	Giants	Mets	T.Lincecum vs O.Perez	64.79%	Win
5/19	Astros	Giants	R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum	68.15%	Win
5/20	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez	62.69%	Loss
5/26	Nationals	Giants	L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum	72.97%	Loss
5/31	Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	50.50%	Loss
6/6	Giants	Pirates	T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf	65.64%	Win
7/2	Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	54.95%	Loss
7/7	Giants	Brewers	T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson	56.52%	Win
7/15	Mets	Giants	R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum	63.24%	Win
7/20	Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw	46.30%	Win
7/25	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs B.Enright	57.98%	Win
7/30	Dodgers	Giants	C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum	63.90%	Win
8/5	Giants	Braves	T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens	51.22%	Loss
8/10	Cubs	Giants	R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum	63.64%	Loss
8/15	Padres	Giants	W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum	63.90%	Loss
8/21	Giants	Cardinals	T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter	39.37%	Loss
8/27	DBacks	Giants	B.Enright vs T.Lincecum	64.16%	Loss
9/1	Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	46.51%	Win
9/7	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs B.Enright	54.13%	Win
9/12	Giants	Padres	T.Lincecum vs M.Latos	42.74%	Win
9/18	Brewers	Giants	Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum	58.51%	Loss
9/24	Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	45.25%	Win
9/29	DBacks	Giants	I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum	66.10%	Win

The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.

Division Series, October 12th Games

October 12th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Rays	C.Lee vs D.Price	Rays	52.72%	49.45%	TEX 5-1

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 11th Games

October 11th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Braves	M.Bumgarner vs D.Lowe	Braves	58.16%	53.53%	SF 3-2

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 10th Games

October 10th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Braves	J.Sanchez vs T.Hudson	Braves	56.52%	54.48%	SF 3-2
Phillies	Reds	C.Hamels vs J.Cueto	Phillies	55.46%	55.64%	PHI 2-0
Rays	Rangers	W.Davis vs T.Hunter	Rangers	53.60%	50.08%	TB 5-2

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 9th Games

October 9th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rays	Rangers	M.Garza vs C.Lewis	Rangers	55.46%	60.45%	TB 6-3
Twins	Yankees	B.Duensing vs P.Hughes	Yankees	61.90%	64.66%	NYA 6-1

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 8th Games

October 8th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Braves	Giants	T.Hanson vs M.Cain	Giants	58.16%	54.83%	ATL 5-4
Reds	Phillies	B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	65.22%	68.52%	PHI 7-4

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 7th Games

October 7th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Braves	Giants	D.Lowe vs T.Lincecum	Giants	59.84%	62.27%	SF 1-0
Rangers	Rays	C.Wilson vs J.Shields	Rays	53.38%	48.86%	TEX 6-0
Yankees	Twins	A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano	Yankees	52.72%	52.57%	NYA 5-2

Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 6th Games

October 6th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Phillies	E.Volquez vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	68.64%	PHI 4-0
Rangers	Rays	C.Lee vs D.Price	Rays	55.06%	50.32%	TEX 5-1
Yankees	Twins	C.Sabathia vs F.Liriano	Yankees	56.80%	44.75%	NYA 6-4

Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

2010 Simulation Results

The 2010 regular baseball season is over and below are the statistics of how the simulator did for the 2010 season. Method of measurement is Return On Investment (ROI), which is calculated by taking the total amount won betting, divided by the total amount of money bet.

Measurement	ROI
Overall	3.42%
April	8.95%
May	-1.37%
June	1.20%
July	5.52%
August	1.28%
Sep/Oct	5.66%
National League	4.98%
American League	1.53%
Interleague	5.03%
Favorites	-4.00%
Underdogs	8.04%
Visitors	-0.75%
Home	6.06%
Home Underdogs	15.55%
Home Favorites	0.19%

To put this in perspective, let's say that you average bet was $10 on each game, (this is a simplified example) - but just to get an idea on what you'd make, it would be around $730 and $7300 on average bet sizes of $100. From the table above, the simulator cleaned up on "home underdogs".

Season Finale

October 3rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	R.Lopez vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.90%	66.55%	LAN 3-1
Padres	Giants	M.Latos vs J.Sanchez	Giants	TBD	52.46%	SF 3-0
Phillies	Braves	C.Hamels vs T.Hudson	Phillies	TBD	55.41%	ATL 8-7

Current ROI: 3.54%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/3	10/2	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23
1	Giants	62.91%	90.04%	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%
2	Padres	37.09%	9.96%	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	48.41%	83.97%	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	19.80%	11.04%	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	31.78%	5.00%	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

Operation Protect Draft Pick

October 2nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Saunders vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	61.09%	70.61%	LAN 3-2
Padres	Giants	T.Stauffer vs B.Zito	Giants	60.00%	59.96%	SD 4-2
Phillies	Braves	V.Worley vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.41%	62.34%	PHI 7-0

Current ROI: 2.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/2	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22
1	Giants	90.04%	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%
2	Padres	9.96%	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	83.97%	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	11.04%	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	5.00%	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

October Baseball

October 1st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	K.Kroenke vs J.Ely	Dodgers	59.84%	62.42%	ARI 7-5
Padres	Giants	C.Richard vs M.Cain	Giants	61.83%	58.07%	SD 6-4
Phillies	Braves	K.Kendrick vs B.Beachy	Braves	60.78%	48.80%	PHI 11-5

Current ROI: 2.44%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20
1	Giants	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%
2	Padres	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

.500 Still Attainable

September 30th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Cubs	Padres	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Garland	Padres	61.54%	50.01%	SD 1-0
DBacks	Giants	B.Enright vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	63.90%	70.41%	SF 4-1

Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19
1	Giants	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%
2	Padres	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

CTRL-ALT-DEL On Kershaw's Season

September 29th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Monasterios vs J.Chacin	Rockies	64.79%	71.95%	LAN 7-6
Cubs	Padres	R.Wells vs C.Young	Padres	58.85%	48.08%	SD 3-0
DBacks	Giants	I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum	Giants	66.10%	69.26%	SF 3-1
Marlins	Braves	A.Miller vs D.Lowe	Braves	68.75%	66.74%	ATL 5-1

Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18
1	Giants	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%
2	Padres	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

Wild Card Mania

September 28th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	H.Kuroda vs J.Francis	Rockies	56.52%	58.89%	LAN 9-7
Cubs	Padres	R.Dempster vs M.Latos	Padres	61.54%	59.73%	CHN 5-2
DBacks	Giants	R.Lopez vs J.Sanchez	Giants	69.51%	69.52%	SF 4-2
Marlins	Braves	A.Sanchez vs T.Hudson	Braves	63.64%	56.47%	ATL 3-2

Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17
1	Giants	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%
2	Padres	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

More Meaningless Games for LA

September 27th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	T.Lilly vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	64.41%	68.49%	LAN 3-1
Cubs	Padres	C.Zambrano vs T.Stauffer	Padres	58.51%	46.07%	CHN 1-0
Marlins	Braves	A.Sanabia vs T.Hanson	Braves	64.41%	64.10%	ATL 2-1

Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16
1	Giants	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%
2	Padres	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%
3	Rockies	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	56.28%	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp
2	Padres	27.66%	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp
3	Giants	16.06%	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp	&nbsp

MLB Scoreboard

Finale in AZ

September 26th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Billingsley vs J.Saunders	DBacks	50.98%	43.39%	ARI 5-4
Giants	Rockies	M.Cain vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	53.27%	60.24%	SF 4-2
Reds	Padres	H.Bailey vs C.Richard	Padres	55.16%	55.94%	CIN 12-2

Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15
1	Giants	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%
2	Padres	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%
3	Rockies	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%

MLB Scoreboard

DBack To The Future

September 25th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	J.Ely vs D.Hudson	DBacks	64.91%	61.71%	TBD

Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14
1	Giants	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%
2	Padres	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%
3	Rockies	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%

MLB Scoreboard

Dodgers Dog Of A Season Continues

September 24th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Kershaw vs B.Enright	Dodgers	55.36%	61.14%	LAN 3-1
Reds	Padres	B.Arroyo vs C.Young	Padres	53.92%	53.35%	SD 4-3
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	Rockies	54.75%	63.53%	SF 2-1

Current ROI: 2.22%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/24	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13
1	Giants	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%
2	Padres	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%
3	Rockies	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%

MLB Scoreboard

Padres Foil Dodgers Spoil

September 23rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	51.22%	50.15%	LAN 3-1

Current ROI: 2.32%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/23	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12
1	Padres	51.08%	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%
2	Giants	43.43%	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%
3	Rockies	5.49%	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%

MLB Scoreboard

Dodgers Tank Game, Season Down The Drain

September 22nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	T.Stauffer vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	54.95%	57.99%	SD 3-1

Current ROI: 2.41%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/22	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11
1	Giants	54.75%	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%
2	Padres	34.90%	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%
3	Rockies	10.35%	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%

MLB Scoreboard

This Is The End

September 21th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	C.Richard vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	54.13%	55.45%	SD 6-0

Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10
1	Giants	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%
2	Padres	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%
3	Rockies	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%

MLB Scoreboard

Dodgers Ready For The Fall

September 20th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
White Sox	Athletics	G.Floyd vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	57.98%	49.08%	OAK 3-0

Current ROI: 2.62%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/20	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10
1	Giants	47.62%	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%
2	Padres	29.84%	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%
3	Rockies	22.55%	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%

MLB Scoreboard

Dodgers Remain A Mystery

September 19th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Hammel vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	55.75%	59.81%	LAN 7-6
Padres	Cardinals	J.Garland vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	63.24%	66.66%	STL 4-1
Brewers	Giants	C.Narveson vs B.Zito	Giants	59.02%	56.63%	SF 9-2

Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/19	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9
1	Padres	37.73%	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%
2	Giants	34.49%	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%
3	Rockies	27.78%	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%

MLB Scoreboard

Rolling Over

September 18th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Chacin vs J.Ely	Rockies	54.75%	51.21%	COL 12-2
Padres	Cardinals	C.Young vs J.Suppan	Padres	51.46%	43.93%	SD 8-4
Brewers	Giants	Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum	Giants	58.51%	57.59%	MIL 2-1

Current ROI: 2.82%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/18	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8
1	Giants	50.04%	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%
2	Padres	28.93%	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%
3	Rockies	21.03%	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%
4	Dodgers	0.0006%	0.0003%	0.004%	0.002%	0.008%	0.018%	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%

MLB Scoreboard

Rockies Come To LA

September 17th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs H.Kuroda	Rockies	56.33%	47.28%	COL 7-5
Padres	Cardinals	M.Latos vs K.Lohse	Padres	57.81%	53.06%	STL 14-4
Brewers	Giants	R.Wolf vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	58.33%	61.66%	MIL 3-0

Current ROI: 2.88%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/17	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7
1	Giants	57.04%	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%
2	Padres	30.68%	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%
3	Rockies	12.28%	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%
4	Dodgers	0.0003%	0.004%	0.002%	0.008%	0.018%	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%

MLB Scoreboard

NL West Tightens Back Up, Part III

September 16th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	T.Lilly vs J.Sanchez	Giants	56.14%	59.24%	SF 10-2
Padres	Cardinals	T.Stauffer vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	53.70%	60.65%	STL 4-0

Current ROI: 2.75%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/16	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6
1	Giants	46.54%	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%
2	Padres	41.20%	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%
3	Rockies	12.25%	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%
4	Dodgers	0.004%	0.002%	0.008%	0.018%	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%

MLB Scoreboard
NFL football betting system

Will The Giants Suck It Again?

September 15th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs M.Cain	Giants	58.51%	53.48%	SF 2-1
Padres	Rockies	C.Richard vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	60.32%	57.73%	COL 9-6

Current ROI: 2.56%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/15	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5
1	Padres	52.81%	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%
2	Giants	37.30%	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%
3	Rockies	9.86%	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%
4	Dodgers	0.002%	0.008%	0.018%	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Clayton The Giants Slayer

September 14th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs B.Zito	Giants	51.69%	49.93%	LAN 1-0
Padres	Rockies	J.Garland vs J.Hammel	Rockies	59.68%	65.48%	SD 7-6

Current ROI: 2.28%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/14	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4
1	Giants	46.08%	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%
2	Padres	38.05%	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%
3	Rockies	15.86%	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%
4	Dodgers	0.008%	0.018%	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

How Good Is Good?

Question: In terms of win probability for one game, how much of a bearing does one superstar hitter have on his team?

Well, a lot of this has to do with who this superstar hitter is being replaced with. Any easy and somewhat crude method to figuring this out is to find the difference in true talent in terms of WAR/150 of the superstar player and his replacement. You want to make sure you get as accurately as possible an estimate on the true talent WAR/150 of these two players. It will be somewhat subjective, but not too difficult.

Let's take someone like Carlos Gonzalez and for arguments sake, let's call him a 5.0 WAR/150 player. Let's pretend the Rockies are going to sit Gonzalez and in his place start Ryan Spilborghs and let's call Spilborghs a 1.5 WAR/150 player. Keep in mind we are not doing any adjustments for the handedness of the pitcher being faced in this example, and in the next iteration you would definitely need to make this additional adjustment.

So we have a 5.0 minus 1.5 equals 3.5 WAR/150 difference. Since we are attempting to determine how this changes the Rockies win probability for one single game, we need to change units from per 150 games to a single game. We need to then divide 3.5 by 150 which gets us 0.02333 which is how much win probability the Rockies would lose by starting Spilborghs over Carlos Gonzalez, with the one above mentioned caveat. Let's say the Rockies were originally favored to win this game with a win probability of 60.00%. You could now safely adjust this number down to 57.67%. As far as what this would look like on a Vegas money line the adjustment would go from -150 favorites to -136.

This is a quick, dirty and easy method to use when you need to make a quick calculation on how much the win probability should change when a hitter is removed/added to the lineup. The same thing can be done when multiple players are involved, you will just need to add up all the WAR/150 of all the players taken out of the game and offset it against all the WAR/150 of all the players used to replace them.

Rockies Rolling

September 13th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Rockies	C.Luebke vs J.Francis	Rockies	58.33%	66.53%	SD 6-4

Current ROI: 2.68%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/13	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3
1	Giants	46.78%	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%
2	Padres	28.98%	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%
3	Rockies	24.23%	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%
4	Dodgers	0.018%	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Tightening Up At The Top

September 12th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Astros	C.Monasterios vs N.Figueroa	Astros	54.55%	50.28%	HOU 7-4
Giants	Padres	T.Lincecum vs M.Latos	Padres	57.26%	59.52%	SF 6-1
DBacks	Rockies	I.Kennedy vs J.Chacin	Rockies	62.83%	70.13%	COL 4-2

Current ROI: 2.63%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/12	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2
1	Giants	39.50%	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%
2	Padres	39.38%	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%
3	Rockies	21.11%	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%
4	Dodgers	0.012%	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Extra!, Extra! Dodgers Win

September 11th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Astros	J.Ely vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	57.08%	55.28%	LAN 6-3
Giants	Padres	M.Bumgarner vs T.Stauffer	Padres	53.70%	48.63%	SD 1-0
DBacks	Rockies	R.Lopez vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	74.23%	78.07%	COL 2-1

Current ROI: 2.62%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/11	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1
1	Giants	50.74%	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%
2	Padres	31.74%	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%
3	Rockies	17.51%	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%
4	Dodgers	0.01%	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Home Dogs For The Win

September 10th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Astros	H.Kuroda vs J.Happ	Dodgers	51.69%	53.97%	LAN 4-2
Giants	Padres	J.Sanchez vs C.Richard	Padres	51.46%	55.98%	SF 1-0
DBacks	Rockies	J.Saunders vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	64.91%	67.42%	COL 13-4

Current ROI: 2.49%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/10	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31
1	Padres	44.57%	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%
2	Giants	40.00%	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%
3	Rockies	15.43%	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%
4	Dodgers	0.006%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

How Low Can You Go!?

September 9th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Astros	T.Lilly vs B.Norris	Dodgers	55.56%	48.10%	HOU 3-2
Cardinals	Braves	A.Wainwright vs J.Jurrjens	Cardinals	51.69%	49.17%	STL 11-4

Stats of Interest
Current ROI: 2.42%
Favorite ROI: -3.82%
Underdog ROI: 5.96%
Away ROI: -4.13%
Home ROI: 6.64%
NL ROI: 5.59%
AL ROI: -1.35%
INT ROI: 5.03%
Home/Dog ROI: 15.46%
Home/Fave ROI: 0.20%


Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/9	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30
1	Padres	55.61%	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%
2	Giants	31.96%	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%
3	Rockies	12.42%	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%
4	Dodgers	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Playing Out The String

September 8th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	C.Billingsley vs C.Luebke	Dodgers	50.98%	55.26%	SD 4-0

Note of interest: 50 years ago today, Joe Torre signed his first professional contract. (Source: Hardball Times)

Current ROI: 2.74%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/8	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29
1	Padres	50.19%	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%
2	Giants	45.21%	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%
3	Rockies	4.54%	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%
4	Dodgers	0.06%	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

The Unspoiler

September 7th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	C.Kershaw vs M.Latos	Padres	55.75%	58.49%	SD 2-1

Current ROI: 2.27%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/7	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28
1	Padres	49.60%	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%
2	Giants	45.13%	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%
3	Rockies	5.09%	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%
4	Dodgers	0.18%	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Dodgers Never Die, They Just Fade Away

September 6th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	V.Padilla vs M.Latos	Padres	60.63%	65.01%	SD 4-2

Current ROI: 2.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/6	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27
1	Padres	48.06%	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%
2	Giants	45.53%	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%
3	Rockies	5.85%	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%
4	Dodgers	0.56%	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports