Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, August 14th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Phillies vs Dodgers B.Myers vs H.Kuroda Dodgers -131 +123 7.8 60.05% 9.46/4 60%/9.0 Dodgers
Giants vs Astros K.Correia vs B.Moehler Astros -157 +149 9.3 58.54% 8.24/11 65%/9.0 Astros
DBacks vs Rockies D.Haren vs G.Rusch DBacks -135 +127 9.5 38.49% 10.24/8 52%/9.0 DBacks
Brewers vs Padres B.Sheets vs J.Peavy Padres -108 +100 6.5 45.27% 6.89/5 53%/7.5 Padres
Reds vs Pirates J.Cueto vs I.Snell Pirates -119 +111 8.8 59.85% 8.46/4 49%/9.8 Reds
Mets vs Nationals O.Perez vs C.Balester Mets -151 +143 8.4 54.25% 9.07/12 54%/9.5 Mets
Cubs vs Braves T.Lilly vs T.Glavine Cubs -133 +125 9.5 49.88% 9.27/18 53%/9.2 Cubs
Cardinals vs Marlins T.Wellemeyer vs S.Olsen Marlins -112 +104 8.3 51.79% 9.36/3 50%/9.8 Cardinals
Blue Jays vs Tigers J.Litsch vs A.Galarraga Tigers -167 +159 9.4 55.40% 9.32/6 64%/9.5 Tigers
Royals vs White Sox K.Davies vs L.Broadway White Sox TBD TBD 58.99% 11.00/11 TBD White Sox
Rays vs A's J.Shields vs S.Gallagher Rays -125 +117 7.4 48.99% 8.07/13 61%/8.0 Rays
Rangers vs Red Sox T.Hunter vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox -265 +245 10.5 62.46% 10.61/10 67%/11.9 Red Sox
Orioles vs Indians D.Cabrera vs Z.Jackson Orioles -111 +103 10.4 47.71% 9.33/17 45%/11.6 Orioles
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2473 -$2134 $9685 93.72%
AccuScore $1837 -$179 $11283 125.68%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): LAD($192), Col($375), Mil($236), Pit($301), Was($193), Atl($255), Tor($243), Oak($228), Tex($301), Cle($149)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): LAD($190), Hou($251), Col($176), Cin($171), Was($205), Atl($115), TB($306), Tex($141), Cle($282)

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