Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Simulating The Entire 2010 Season


What started as an exercise for my baseball simulator to play every game on the Dodgers 2010 schedule has now turned into an exercise to play every teams entire 2010 schedule. I had to take some steps, which may cut into the efficiency of the exercise to prevent this from becoming too time consuming.

Basic methodology: Each teams starting rotation for this exercise will be going 7 deep. The top starters will be getting more starts, but occasionally I have the 6th and 7th starters on the depth charts subbing in for one of the other starters. Each team uses the same algorithm for determining which pitcher starts. I am using each teams projected starting lineup for each game. Bench players are only used in pinch hitting roles. In reality there will be injuries and days off to regulars that would force bench players to start. I went the easy route here to save time. I don't think it should effect the results too much, but feel free to dock or add a few wins to teams you think have superior benches.

The results will be posted in fractions of wins and losses as well as winning percentage up to the date of games that I have finished simulating. I am simulating each game 10,000 times.

Results: Season is complete!

2010 Season Simulated
Place Team Wins Losses PCT
NL West
1 Dodgers 93.8 68.2 .579
2 Rockies 86.7 75.3 .535
3 DBacks 82.7 79.3 .510
4 Giants 75.6 86.4 .466
5 Padres 72.3 89.7 .446
NL Central
1 Cubs 87.9 75.2 .543
2 Cardinals 84.6 77.4 .522
3 Brewers 78.0 84.0 .482
4 Reds 75.1 86.9 .464
5 Pirates 72.5 89.5 .447
6 Astros 71.9 90.1 .444
NL East
1 Braves 90.3 71.7 .557
2 Phillies 90.1 71.9 .556
3 Marlins 81.2 80.8 .501
4 Mets 75.7 86.3 .467
5 Nationals 74.9 87.1 .462
AL West
1 Mariners 82.4 79.6 .509
2 Angels 82.2 79.8 .507
3 A's 81.5 80.5 .503
4 Rangers 80.9 81.1 .499
AL Central
1 Twins 86.5 75.5 .534
2 White Sox 82.1 79.9 .507
3 Tigers 77.9 84.1 .481
4 Royals 72.2 89.8 .446
5 Indians 69.9 92.1 .431
AL East
1 Yankees 102.0 60.0 .630
2 Red Sox 91.0 71.0 .561
3 Rays 82.2 79.8 .508
4 Blue Jays 74.7 87.3 .461
5 Orioles 71.5 90.5 .441
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