Friday, January 17, 2014

Best Lineup - Cleveland Indians

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cleveland Indians.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds

See the results after the jump

              Best Lineups via Simulator
vs RHPvs LHP
12B-Jason KipnisLF-Michael Brantley
2CF-Michael Bourn2B-Jason Kipnis
3DH-Carlos SantanaDH-Carlos Santana
41B-Nick Swisher1B-Nick Swisher
5LF-Michael BrantleyRF-Ryan Raburn
6RF-David MurphySS-Asdrubal Cabrera
7SS-Asdrubal CabreraCF-Michael Bourn
83B-Lonnie ChisenhallC-Yan Gomes
9C-Yan Gomes3B-Mike Aviles

Most likely lineup from MLBDepthCharts:
Bourn - Swisher - Kipnis - Santana - Brantley - Cabrera - Murphy - Gomes - Chisenhall

vs RHP - Michael Bourn is the fastest member of the Indians and the person a traditional lineup would have batting leadoff, but the simulator gives that honor to a better hitter who also has good speed in Jason Kipnis.  Bourn's speed still plays well near the top of the lineup as the simulator slots him in the second spot behind Kipnis.  The advantage of batting Kipnis ahead of Bourn was very slight, but there was an advantage nonetheless.  Carlos Santana the Indians best all around hitter slots third in the lineup and Nick Swisher brings the home run bat to the cleanup spot.  Michael Brantley then slots in fifth providing a little middle of the order speed on the bases for David Murphy who bats sixth to knock in.  The bottom third of the lineup is made up of the lowest on base percentage hitters in Asdrubal Cabrera (7th), Lonnie Chisenhall (8th) and Yan Gomes (9th).  The lineup is pretty solid as everyone except for Bourn is somewhat of a threat to knock the ball out of the park.

vs LHP
David Murphy and Lonnie Chisenhall drop out of the starting lineup for Ryan Raburn and Mike Aviles (RH).  While it is a close call, the simulator shoots Michael Brantley up to the top of the lineup vs LHP.  My guess is that it does not like all of the strikeouts from Bourn.  Following Brantley is the one-two punch of Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana.  Nick Swisher hits cleanup again.  Ryan Raburn's right handed power bat hits fifth, followed by Asdrubal Cabrera who moves up from seventh to sixth vs LHP.  The simulator then slots Michael Bourn into the seventh position in the lineup, followed by the power hitting catcher who doesn't draw too many walks.  Mike Aviles, clearly the worst hitter in this lineup bats ninth.

No comments: