2012 MLB Simulations
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Final Score |
| CHN | CIN | Ryan Dempster vs Homer Bailey | CIN | 58.42% | 60.16% | TBD |
| CLE | CHA | Justin Masterson vs John Danks | CHA | 53.16% | 51.48% | TBD |
| NYA | KC | David Phelps vs Danny Duffy | NYA | 55.06% | 52.44% | TBD |
| PHI | ATL | Joe Blanton vs Randall Delgado | ATL | 54.65% | 56.27% | TBD |
| SEA | TB | Kevin Millwood vs Jeff Niemann | TB | 64.60% | 62.33% | TBD |
| TOR | LAA | Brandon Morrow vs Dan Haren | LAA | 55.46% | 62.62% | TBD |
| PIT | STL | Erik Bedard vs Jake Westbrook | STL | 59.92% | 56.88% | TBD |
| FLA | SF | Anibal Sanchez vs Ryan Vogelsong | FLA | 50.86% | 55.19% | TBD |
| ARI | WAS | Ian Kennedy vs Ross Detwiler | ARI | 50.86% | 51.68% | TBD |
4 comments:
Curious if you have tested your sim's performance vs. Vegas odds. Say, by recording record when probabilites differ by > x%. Thanks.
Yes, it has been back-tested and tracked for the current year vs Vegas odds.
If you get a chance, can you post the results?
I can't publish too much detail, otherwise I lose my edge. But ROI so far this season is 6.2%. I expect it to regress to the 3-4% area by the end of the season. I use a Kelly system for determining units.
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