Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #5 Simulation

November 1st Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Rangers	T.Lincecum vs C.Lee	Rangers	62.26%	57.96%	SF 3-1

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Final Post-Season ROI: 42.07%

Simulation details at
Lonestar Ball
McCovey Chronicles

MLB Scoreboard

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #4 Simulation

October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Rangers	M.Bumgarner vs T.Hunter	Rangers	59.12%	45.62%	SF 4-0

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 30.55%

Simulation details at

MLB Scoreboard

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #3 Simulation

October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Rangers	J.Sanchez vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.51%	56.15%	TEX 4-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

Simulation details at Lonestar Ball
Simulation details at McCovey Chronicles
Simulation details at Beyond The Boxscore

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #2 Simulation

October 28th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Giants	C.Wilson vs M.Cain	Giants	52.38%	52.04%	SF 9-0

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #1 Simulation

October 27th Simulations, World Series Odds ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Giants	C.Lee vs T.Lincecum	Rangers	54.34%	46.76%	SF 11-7

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 28.98%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Game #6 Simulation

October 23rd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Phillies	J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	60.63%	56.07%	SF 3-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 24.72%

MLB Scoreboard

ALCS Game #6 Simulation

October 22nd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Rangers	P.Hughes vs C.Lewis	Yankees	51.46%	42.68%	TEX 6-1

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 18.36%

MLB Scoreboard

Giant Close-Out Game

October 21th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Giants	R.Halladay vs T.Lincecum	Giants	52.94%	48.25%	PHI 4-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 23.31%

MLB Scoreboard

League Championship Series Simulations

October 20th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Giants	J.Blanton vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	52.15%	55.93%	SF 6-5
Rangers	Yankees	C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	62.48%	57.45%	NYA 7-2

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 25.29%

MLB Scoreboard

League Championship Series Simulations

October 19th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs M.Cain	Phillies	52.15%	48.50%	SF 3-0
Rangers	Yankees	T.Hunter vs A.Burnett	Yankees	58.16%	66.80%	TEX 10-3

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 35.66%

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Yankees, ALCS Game #3 Simulation

October 18th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Yankees	C.Lee vs A.Pettitte	Rangers	51.46%	57.80%	TEX 8-0

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 29.60%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Game #2, Giants vs Phillies

October 17th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Phillies	J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	60.24%	64.86%	PHI 6-1

Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 26.51%

MLB Scoreboard

League Championship Series Simulations

October 16th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Phillies	T.Lincecum vs R.Halladay	Phillies	61.17%	58.38%	SF 4-3
Yankees	Rangers	P.Hughes vs C.Lewis	Yankees	53.16%	45.73%	TEX 7-2

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

ALCS Game #1, Yankees vs Rangers

October 15th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Rangers	C.Sabathia vs C.Wilson	Yankees	58.07%	48.62%	NYA 6-5

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Preview, Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..

The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?

To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.

Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.

Date	Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Giants Win Prob	Actual
4/11	Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum	65.87%	Win
4/17	Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger	60.78%	Win
4/23	Cardinals	Giants	J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum	61.98%	Win
4/28	Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum	61.83%	Loss
5/4	Giants	Marlins	T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez	62.83%	Win
5/9	Giants	Mets	T.Lincecum vs O.Perez	64.79%	Win
5/19	Astros	Giants	R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum	68.15%	Win
5/20	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez	62.69%	Loss
5/26	Nationals	Giants	L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum	72.97%	Loss
5/31	Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	50.50%	Loss
6/6	Giants	Pirates	T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf	65.64%	Win
7/2	Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	54.95%	Loss
7/7	Giants	Brewers	T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson	56.52%	Win
7/15	Mets	Giants	R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum	63.24%	Win
7/20	Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw	46.30%	Win
7/25	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs B.Enright	57.98%	Win
7/30	Dodgers	Giants	C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum	63.90%	Win
8/5	Giants	Braves	T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens	51.22%	Loss
8/10	Cubs	Giants	R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum	63.64%	Loss
8/15	Padres	Giants	W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum	63.90%	Loss
8/21	Giants	Cardinals	T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter	39.37%	Loss
8/27	DBacks	Giants	B.Enright vs T.Lincecum	64.16%	Loss
9/1	Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	46.51%	Win
9/7	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs B.Enright	54.13%	Win
9/12	Giants	Padres	T.Lincecum vs M.Latos	42.74%	Win
9/18	Brewers	Giants	Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum	58.51%	Loss
9/24	Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	45.25%	Win
9/29	DBacks	Giants	I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum	66.10%	Win

The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.

Division Series, October 12th Games

October 12th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rangers	Rays	C.Lee vs D.Price	Rays	52.72%	49.45%	TEX 5-1

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 11th Games

October 11th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Braves	M.Bumgarner vs D.Lowe	Braves	58.16%	53.53%	SF 3-2

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 10th Games

October 10th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Braves	J.Sanchez vs T.Hudson	Braves	56.52%	54.48%	SF 3-2
Phillies	Reds	C.Hamels vs J.Cueto	Phillies	55.46%	55.64%	PHI 2-0
Rays	Rangers	W.Davis vs T.Hunter	Rangers	53.60%	50.08%	TB 5-2

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 9th Games

October 9th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rays	Rangers	M.Garza vs C.Lewis	Rangers	55.46%	60.45%	TB 6-3
Twins	Yankees	B.Duensing vs P.Hughes	Yankees	61.90%	64.66%	NYA 6-1

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 8th Games

October 8th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Braves	Giants	T.Hanson vs M.Cain	Giants	58.16%	54.83%	ATL 5-4
Reds	Phillies	B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	65.22%	68.52%	PHI 7-4

Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 7th Games

October 7th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Braves	Giants	D.Lowe vs T.Lincecum	Giants	59.84%	62.27%	SF 1-0
Rangers	Rays	C.Wilson vs J.Shields	Rays	53.38%	48.86%	TEX 6-0
Yankees	Twins	A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano	Yankees	52.72%	52.57%	NYA 5-2

Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 6th Games

October 6th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Phillies	E.Volquez vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	68.64%	PHI 4-0
Rangers	Rays	C.Lee vs D.Price	Rays	55.06%	50.32%	TEX 5-1
Yankees	Twins	C.Sabathia vs F.Liriano	Yankees	56.80%	44.75%	NYA 6-4

Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

2010 Simulation Results

The 2010 regular baseball season is over and below are the statistics of how the simulator did for the 2010 season. Method of measurement is Return On Investment (ROI), which is calculated by taking the total amount won betting, divided by the total amount of money bet.

Measurement	ROI
Overall	3.42%
April	8.95%
May	-1.37%
June	1.20%
July	5.52%
August	1.28%
Sep/Oct	5.66%
National League	4.98%
American League	1.53%
Interleague	5.03%
Favorites	-4.00%
Underdogs	8.04%
Visitors	-0.75%
Home	6.06%
Home Underdogs	15.55%
Home Favorites	0.19%

To put this in perspective, let's say that you average bet was $10 on each game, (this is a simplified example) - but just to get an idea on what you'd make, it would be around $730 and $7300 on average bet sizes of $100. From the table above, the simulator cleaned up on "home underdogs".

Season Finale

October 3rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	R.Lopez vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.90%	66.55%	LAN 3-1
Padres	Giants	M.Latos vs J.Sanchez	Giants	TBD	52.46%	SF 3-0
Phillies	Braves	C.Hamels vs T.Hudson	Phillies	TBD	55.41%	ATL 8-7

Current ROI: 3.54%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/3	10/2	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23
1	Giants	62.91%	90.04%	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%
2	Padres	37.09%	9.96%	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	48.41%	83.97%	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	19.80%	11.04%	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	31.78%	5.00%	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard

Operation Protect Draft Pick

October 2nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Saunders vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	61.09%	70.61%	LAN 3-2
Padres	Giants	T.Stauffer vs B.Zito	Giants	60.00%	59.96%	SD 4-2
Phillies	Braves	V.Worley vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.41%	62.34%	PHI 7-0

Current ROI: 2.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	10/2	10/1	9/30	9/29	9/28	9/27	9/26	9/25	9/24	9/23	9/22
1	Giants	90.04%	94.99%	89.59%	89.58%	77.89%	71.68%	51.25%	63.78%	60.05%	43.43%	54.75%
2	Padres	9.96%	5.01%	10.41%	10.42%	22.11%	28.30%	48.42%	35.91%	37.42%	51.08%	34.90%
3	Rockies	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.32%	0.31%	2.53%	5.49%	10.35%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1	Braves	83.97%	95.49%	91.15%	91.20%	76.00%	56.28%
2	Padres	11.04%	3.11%	6.54%	6.60%	16.35%	27.66%
3	Giants	5.00%	1.40%	2.31%	2.20%	7.65%	16.06%

MLB Scoreboard