Sunday, January 31, 2010

Simulating The Entire 2010 Season


What started as an exercise for my baseball simulator to play every game on the Dodgers 2010 schedule has now turned into an exercise to play every teams entire 2010 schedule. I had to take some steps, which may cut into the efficiency of the exercise to prevent this from becoming too time consuming.

Basic methodology: Each teams starting rotation for this exercise will be going 7 deep. The top starters will be getting more starts, but occasionally I have the 6th and 7th starters on the depth charts subbing in for one of the other starters. Each team uses the same algorithm for determining which pitcher starts. I am using each teams projected starting lineup for each game. Bench players are only used in pinch hitting roles. In reality there will be injuries and days off to regulars that would force bench players to start. I went the easy route here to save time. I don't think it should effect the results too much, but feel free to dock or add a few wins to teams you think have superior benches.

The results will be posted in fractions of wins and losses as well as winning percentage up to the date of games that I have finished simulating. I am simulating each game 10,000 times.

Results: Season is complete!

2010 Season Simulated
Place Team Wins Losses PCT
NL West
1 Dodgers 93.8 68.2 .579
2 Rockies 86.7 75.3 .535
3 DBacks 82.7 79.3 .510
4 Giants 75.6 86.4 .466
5 Padres 72.3 89.7 .446
NL Central
1 Cubs 87.9 75.2 .543
2 Cardinals 84.6 77.4 .522
3 Brewers 78.0 84.0 .482
4 Reds 75.1 86.9 .464
5 Pirates 72.5 89.5 .447
6 Astros 71.9 90.1 .444
NL East
1 Braves 90.3 71.7 .557
2 Phillies 90.1 71.9 .556
3 Marlins 81.2 80.8 .501
4 Mets 75.7 86.3 .467
5 Nationals 74.9 87.1 .462
AL West
1 Mariners 82.4 79.6 .509
2 Angels 82.2 79.8 .507
3 A's 81.5 80.5 .503
4 Rangers 80.9 81.1 .499
AL Central
1 Twins 86.5 75.5 .534
2 White Sox 82.1 79.9 .507
3 Tigers 77.9 84.1 .481
4 Royals 72.2 89.8 .446
5 Indians 69.9 92.1 .431
AL East
1 Yankees 102.0 60.0 .630
2 Red Sox 91.0 71.0 .561
3 Rays 82.2 79.8 .508
4 Blue Jays 74.7 87.3 .461
5 Orioles 71.5 90.5 .441
March Madness Picks


Sunday, January 24, 2010

Dodger Crystal Ball


It's time to leave the world of WAR and move onto what should hopefully be a better indicator of team talent in terms of projecting a 2010 win total. I have programmed up my baseball simulator with the first 50 games of the Dodgers schedule. Taking the Dodgers win probability from each game and adding them all together and dividing by 50 you get the Dodgers 50 game win total expectancy.

As part of this exercise, I had to make a few assumption in order to keep this from becoming a science project. I used roster depth charts from Yahoo sports, using the same starting lineup for each team, in each and every game. I used 5 man starting rotations, skipping the 5th starter when their turn was not needed. For the Dodgers, I split 5th starter starts between Eric Stults and James McDonald. For player projection inputs, I generate my own player projections.

For a detailed description of the results, please navigate to this Fanpost at the Dodgers True Blue LA blog.

As time permits, I will add 10-20 games to the simulation per week and update the table below.

Team Games Played Wins Losses Win %
Dodgers 50 29.7 20.3 .594

Super Bowl Odds

Friday, January 08, 2010

2010 AL West WAR


Last updated 1/26
Other Divisions...
AL East | AL Central | NL East | NL Central | NL West |

AL West
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Angels 22.9 16.7 44.5 84.1
Mariners 21.0 18.5 44.5 84.0
Rangers 23.8 13.7 44.5 82.0
A's 18.6 16.4 44.5 79.5
Top 10 AL West WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Cliff Lee Mariners 6.0
1 Felix Hernandez Mariners 6.0
3 Ian Kinsler Rangers 5.0
4 Franklin Gutierrez Mariners 4.7
5 Brett Anderson A's 4.3
5 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners 4.3
5 Chone Figgins Mariners 4.3
8 Elvis Andrus Rangers 4.0
9 Jered Weaver Angels 3.5
9 Josh Hamilton Rangers 3.5
9 Torri Hunter Angels 3.5
Update History
1/8: Initial publication.
1/9: TEX sdded DH-V.Guerrero
1/20: LAA signed P-J.Pineiro
1/26: OAK signed P-B.Sheets

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

2010 AL Central WAR


Last updated 2/4

AL Central
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Twins 20.8 18.0 45.0 83.8
Tigers 18.7 17.8 45.0 81.5
White Sox 16.7 18.5 45.0 80.2
Indians 19.1 10.0 45.0 74.1
Royals 10.3 17.9 45.0 73.2

Top 10 AL Central WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Joe Mauer Twins 7.3
2 Zach Greinke Royals 7.1
3 Grady Sizemore Indians 5.9
4 Justin Verlander Tigers 5.8
5 Miguel Cabrera Tigers 5.2
6 Shin-Soo Choo Indians 4.6
7 Denard Span Twins 4.1
8 Alex Gordon Royals 4.0
9 Justin Morneau Twins 3.8
9 Jake Peavy White Sox 3.8

Update History
1/6: Initial publication.
1/6: Fixed Top 10 List (Left A.Gordon off list)
1/14: Added P-J.Valverde (DET)
2/4: Added DH-J.Thome (MIN)
2/4: Added 2B-O.Hudson (MIN)

Saturday, January 02, 2010

2010 AL East WAR


Last updated 1/4

AL East
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Yankees 38.1 21.5 41.5 101.1
Red Sox 34.2 23.4 41.5 99.1
Rays 35.6 17.1 41.5 94.2
Orioles 23.6 10.8 41.5 75.9
Blue Jays 20.3 12.1 41.5 73.9
Top 10 AL East WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Evan Longoria Rays 7.3
2 Alex Rodriguez Yankees 6.7
3 Mark Teixeira Yankees 5.7
4 Ben Zobrist Rays 5.6
4 Jon Lester Red Sox 5.6
6 CC Sabathia Yankees 5.5
6 Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 5.5
8 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox 5.4
9 Carl Crawford Rays 5.1
9 B.J. Upton Rays 5.1
Update History
1/4 - Adrian Beltre signs with Boston.