What started as an exercise for my baseball simulator to play every game on the Dodgers 2010 schedule has now turned into an exercise to play every teams entire 2010 schedule. I had to take some steps, which may cut into the efficiency of the exercise to prevent this from becoming too time consuming.
Basic methodology: Each teams starting rotation for this exercise will be going 7 deep. The top starters will be getting more starts, but occasionally I have the 6th and 7th starters on the depth charts subbing in for one of the other starters. Each team uses the same algorithm for determining which pitcher starts. I am using each teams projected starting lineup for each game. Bench players are only used in pinch hitting roles. In reality there will be injuries and days off to regulars that would force bench players to start. I went the easy route here to save time. I don't think it should effect the results too much, but feel free to dock or add a few wins to teams you think have superior benches.
The results will be posted in fractions of wins and losses as well as winning percentage up to the date of games that I have finished simulating. I am simulating each game 10,000 times.
Results: Season is complete!
2010 Season Simulated | ||||
Place | Team | Wins | Losses | PCT |
NL West | ||||
1 | Dodgers | 93.8 | 68.2 | .579 |
2 | Rockies | 86.7 | 75.3 | .535 |
3 | DBacks | 82.7 | 79.3 | .510 |
4 | Giants | 75.6 | 86.4 | .466 |
5 | Padres | 72.3 | 89.7 | .446 |
NL Central | ||||
1 | Cubs | 87.9 | 75.2 | .543 |
2 | Cardinals | 84.6 | 77.4 | .522 |
3 | Brewers | 78.0 | 84.0 | .482 |
4 | Reds | 75.1 | 86.9 | .464 |
5 | Pirates | 72.5 | 89.5 | .447 |
6 | Astros | 71.9 | 90.1 | .444 |
NL East | ||||
1 | Braves | 90.3 | 71.7 | .557 |
2 | Phillies | 90.1 | 71.9 | .556 |
3 | Marlins | 81.2 | 80.8 | .501 |
4 | Mets | 75.7 | 86.3 | .467 |
5 | Nationals | 74.9 | 87.1 | .462 |
AL West | ||||
1 | Mariners | 82.4 | 79.6 | .509 |
2 | Angels | 82.2 | 79.8 | .507 |
3 | A's | 81.5 | 80.5 | .503 |
4 | Rangers | 80.9 | 81.1 | .499 |
AL Central | ||||
1 | Twins | 86.5 | 75.5 | .534 |
2 | White Sox | 82.1 | 79.9 | .507 |
3 | Tigers | 77.9 | 84.1 | .481 |
4 | Royals | 72.2 | 89.8 | .446 |
5 | Indians | 69.9 | 92.1 | .431 |
AL East | ||||
1 | Yankees | 102.0 | 60.0 | .630 |
2 | Red Sox | 91.0 | 71.0 | .561 |
3 | Rays | 82.2 | 79.8 | .508 |
4 | Blue Jays | 74.7 | 87.3 | .461 |
5 | Orioles | 71.5 | 90.5 | .441 |