Using my simulator to play out the remainder of the schedules for the 2008 season for the five NL West teams. Here is how the simulator predicts the final outcome of the division to be (20 seasons were simulated for each team).
|
| Current
| Final / Simulated
| Best
| Worst
|
| Team
| Wins
| Losses
| Wins
| Losses
| Season
| Season
|
| Dodgers
| 46
| 49
| 80.2
| 81.8
| 88-74
| 75-87
|
| DBacks
| 47
| 48
| 80.1
| 81.9
| 89-73
| 70-92
|
| Giants
| 40
| 55
| 74.7
| 87.3
| 82-80
| 69-93
|
| Rockies
| 39
| 57
| 73.0
| 89.0
| 81-81
| 66-96
|
| Padres
| 37
| 58
| 68.0
| 94.0
| 74-88
| 60-102
|
Skinny: The simulator is predicting the top four teams to play close to .500 ball the rest of the season, with the one exception of the Padres who are predicted to go 31-36 in their remaining games. Surprisingly, the Giants are expected to have the best record in the NL West the rest of the way winning at a .517 clip. The Rockies posted the 2nd best remaining season record, with a .514 winning percentage. The Dodgers finished narrowly behind the Rockeis with a .510 winning percentage. The DBacks mirrored their pre-All Star break record with a .494 winning percentage the rest of the way out. The simulator is predicting a dead heat between the Dodgers and DBacks for the NL West crown, with the Dodgers averaging a season total of 80.2 wins and the DBacks 80.1 wins. The difference, most likely within the margin of error. The NL West title will most likely come down to a factor like, who makes the best trade before the deadline, or which team stays the healthiest, or which team gives the most playing time to it's best players. The latter of which is something that could easily kill the Dodgers 2008 season.
