| Simulations for Wednesday, June 13th. Current prediction record is 98-72. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Mets vs Dodgers | J.Sosa vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 56.90 | Dodgers |
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday, June 13th
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, June 12th
| Simulations for Tuesday, June 12th. Current prediction record is 98-71. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Mets vs Dodgers | J.Maine vs H.Guo | Mets | 50.65 | Dodgers |
Monday, June 11, 2007
Simulations for Monday, June 11th
| Simulations for Monday, June 11th. Current prediction record is 98-70. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Mets vs Dodgers | O.Hernandez vs R.Wolf | Mets | 54.00 | Dodgers |
Friday, June 08, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, June 9th
| Simulations for Saturday, June 9th. Current prediction record is 98-68. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Blue Jays vs Dodgers | S.Marcum vs D.Lowe | Dodgers | 58.90 | Blue Jays |
| Mariners vs Padres | J.Weaver vs D.Wells | Padres | 50.40 | Mariners |
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Simulations for Friday, June 8th
| Simulations for Friday, June 8th. Current prediction record is 97-66. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Blue Jays vs Dodgers | D.McGowan vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 59.70 | Dodgers |
| Mariners vs Padres | M.Batista vs J.Germano | Padres | 62.60 | Mariners |
| A's vs Giants | C.Gaudin vs T.Lincecum | Giants | 53.55 | A's |
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, June 7th
| Simulations for Thursday, June 7th. Current prediction record is 95-65. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Padres | H.Guo vs J.Peavy | Padres | 58.50 | Padres |
| Giants vs DBacks | N.Lowry vs L.Hernandez | DBacks | 54.20 | Giants |
| Astros vs Rockies | R.Oswalt vs J.Fogg | Rockies | 52.25 | Rockies |
Simulations for Wednesday, June 6th
| Simulations for Wednesday, June 6th. Current prediction record is 92-65. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Padres | R.Wolf vs G.Maddux | Padres | 50.80 | Padres |
| Giants vs DBacks | M.Morris vs B.Webb | DBacks | 53.55 | DBacks |
| Astros vs Rockies | W.Williams vs A.Cook | Rockies | 63.65 | Rockies |
Monday, June 04, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, June 5th
| Simulations for Tuesday, June 5th. Current prediction record is 90-64. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Padres | J.Schmidt vs C.Young | Padres | 53.50 | Padres |
| Giants vs DBacks | M.Cain vs R.Johnson | DBacks | 55.35 | DBacks |
| Astros vs Rockies | W.Rodriguez vs J.Hirsh | Rockies | 53.95 | Astros |
Sunday, June 03, 2007
Simulations for Monday, June 4th
| Simulations for Monday, June 4th. Current prediction record is 89-63. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Pirates | D.Lowe vs P.Maholm | Dodgers | 56.25 | Dodgers |
| Giants vs Phillies | B.Zito vs J.Lieber | Phillies | 52.15 | Giants |
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, June 3rd
| Simulations for Sunday, June 3rd. Current prediction record is 87-60. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Pirates | B.Penny vs T.Gorzelanny | Dodgers | 51.30 | Dodgers |
| Giants vs Phillies | T.Lincecum vs F.Garcia | Giants | 52.45 | Phillies |
| Padres vs Nationals | D.Wells vs J.Simontacchi | Nationals | 51.80 | Padres |
| DBacks vs Mets | D.Davis vs O.Perez | Mets | 59.90 | DBacks |
| Reds vs Rockies | M.Belisle vs R.Lopez | Rockies | 57.10 | Rockies |
Friday, June 01, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, June 2nd
| Simulations for Saturday, June 2nd. Current prediction record is 82-60. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Pirates | H.Guo vs I.Snell | Pirates | 52.70 | Pirates |
| Giants vs Phillies | N.Lowry vs C.Hammels | Phillies | 53.20 | Phillies |
| Padres vs Nationals | J.Germano vs J.Speigner | Padres | 60.40 | Padres |
| DBacks vs Mets | L.Hernandez vs J.Sosa | Mets | 62.85 | Mets |
| Reds vs Rockies | K.Lohse vs J.Francis | Rockies | 61.40 | Rockies |
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Simulations for Friday, June 1st
| Simulations for Friday, June 1st. Current prediction record is 81-56. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Pirates | R.Wolf vs Z.Duke | Dodgers | 56.50 | Dodgers |
| Giants vs Phillies | M.Morris vs A.Eaton | Phillies | 52.10 | Giants |
| Padres vs Nationals | J.Peavy vs M.Chico | Padres | 62.45 | Nationals |
| DBacks vs Mets | B.Webb vs J.Maine | Mets | 58.40 | DBacks |
| Reds vs Rockies | B.Livingston vs T.Buchholz | Rockies | 63.70 | Reds |
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, May 31st
| Simulations for Wednesday, May 30th. Current prediction record is 80-53. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Nationals | M.Hendrickson vs M.Bowie | Dodgers | 50.75 | Nationals |
| Padres vs Pirates | G.Maddux vs S.Chacon | Pirates | 50.55 | Padres |
| Giants vs Mets | M.Cain vs O.Hernandez | Mets | 58.05 | Mets |
| Cardinals vs Rockies | B.Thompson vs A.Cook | Rockies | 59.60 | Cardinals |
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday, May 30th
| Simulations for Wednesday, May 30th. Current prediction record is 78-50. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| * Dodgers vs Nationals | D.Lowe vs M.Bacsik | Dodgers | 57.85 | Dodgers |
| Padres vs Pirates | C.Young vs P.Maholm | Padres | 56.75 | Padres |
| Giants vs Mets | B.Zito vs T.Glavine | Mets | 56.85 | Giants |
| Cardinals vs Rockies | T.Wellemeyer vs J.Hirsh | Rockies | 63.80 | Cardinals |
| DBacks vs Phillies | R.Johnson vs J.Moyer | Phillies | 55.85 | DBacks |
| * - Sim was reran with Bacsik's ZIPS projections due to small sample size of 2007 innings pitched | ||||
Monday, May 28, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, May 29th
| Simulations for Tuesday, May 29th. Current prediction record is 74-49. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Nationals | B.Penny vs J.Simontacchi | Dodgers | 58.65 | Dodgers |
| Padres vs Pirates | D.Wells vs T.Gorzelanny | Pirates | 60.60 | Pirates |
| Giants vs Mets | T.Lincecum vs O.Perez | Mets | 58.35 | Mets |
| Cardinals vs Rockies | B.Looper vs R.Lopez | Rockies | 58.75 | Rockies |
| DBacks vs Phillies | M.Owings vs J.Lieber | Phillies | 55.15 | DBacks |
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Simulations for Monday, May 28th
| Simulations for Monday, May 28th. Current prediction record is 73-48. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cardinals vs Rockies | K.Wells vs J.Francis | Rockies | 53.50 | Rockies |
| DBacks vs Phillies | D.Davis vs F.Garcia | Phillies | 53.40 | DBacks |
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, May 27th
| Simulations for Sunday, May 27th. Current prediction record is 70-47. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cubs vs Dodgers | R.Hill vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 53.25 | Dodgers |
| Rockies vs Giants | T.Buchholz vs N.Lowry | Giants | 54.25 | Rockies |
| Brewers vs Padres | J.Suppan vs J.Peavy | Padres | 59.75 | Padres |
| Astros vs DBacks | R.Oswalt vs L.Hernandez | DBacks | 51.15 | DBacks |
Friday, May 25, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, May 26th
| Simulations for Saturday, May 26th. Current prediction record is 67-46. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cubs vs Dodgers | C.Zambrano vs M.Hendrickson | Dodgers | 61.09 | Cubs |
| Rockies vs Giants | A.Cook vs M.Morris | Rockies | 51.50 | Rockies |
| Brewers vs Padres | C.Vargas vs J.Germano | Padres | 70.75 | Padres |
| Astros vs DBacks | C.Sampson vs B.Webb | DBacks | 55.05 | DBacks |
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Simulations for Friday, May 25th
| Simulations for Friday, May 25th. Current prediction record is 65-44. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cubs vs Dodgers | T.Lilly vs D.Lowe | Cubs | 51.70 | Dodgers |
| Rockies vs Giants | J.Hirsh vs M.Cain | Giants | 51.00 | Rockies |
| Brewers vs Padres | D.Bush vs G.Maddux | Padres | 57.50 | Padres |
| Astros vs DBacks | W.Williams vs E.Gonzalez | DBacks | 50.70 | DBacks |
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, May 24th
| Simulations for Thursday, May 24th. Current prediction record is 63-44. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cubs vs Padres | J.Marquis vs C.Young | Cubs | 51.05 | Cubs |
| Astros vs DBacks | W.Rodriguez vs M.Owings | DBacks | 51.10 | DBacks |
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday, May 23rd
| Simulations for Wednesday, May 23rd. Current prediction record is 59-44. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Brewers vs Dodgers | C.Capuano vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 57.60 | Dodgers |
| Astros vs Giants | M.Albers vs B.Zito | Giants | 52.80 | Giants |
| Rockies vs DBacks | J.Francis vs D.Davis | Rockies | 55.20 | Rockies |
| Cubs vs Padres | S.Marshall vs D.Wells | Padres | 50.90 | Padres |
Simulations for Tuesday, May 22nd
| Simulations for Tuesday, May 22nd. Current prediction record is 57-42. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Brewers vs Dodgers | B.Sheets vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 53.05 | Dodgers |
| Astros vs Giants | R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum | Astros | 54.30 | Giants |
| Rockies vs DBacks | J.Fogg vs L.Hernandez | DBacks | 53.60 | Rockies |
| Cubs vs Padres | R.Hill vs J.Peavy | Padres | 57.23 | Padres |
Sunday, May 20, 2007
Simulations for Monday, May 21st
| Simulations for Monday, May 21st. Current prediction record is 56-40. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Brewers vs Dodgers | J.Suppan vs B.Tomko | Dodgers | 59.55 | Brewers |
| Rockies vs DBacks | A.Cook vs B.Webb | DBacks | 68.22 | DBacks |
| Astros vs Giants | C.Sampson vs N.Lowry | Astros | 53.67 | Giants |
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, May 20th
| Simulations for Sunday, May 20th. Current prediction record is 55-39. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Angels | D.Lowe vs K.Escobar | Angels | 55.80 | Angels |
| Giants vs A's | M.Morris vs J.Kennedy | A's | 54.55 | Giants |
Friday, May 18, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, May 19th
| Simulations for Saturday, May 19th. Current prediction record is 53-37. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Angels | M.Hendrickson vs J.Weaver | Angels | 51.20 | Angels |
| Giants vs A's | M.Cain vs D.Haren | Giants | 53.30 | A's |
| Padres vs Mariners | G.Maddux vs H.Ramirez | Padres | 54.15 | Mariners |
| Royals vs Rockies | G.Meche vs T.Buccholz | Rockies | 52.80 | Rockies |
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Simulations for Friday, May 18th
| Simulations for Friday, May 18th. Current prediction record is 51-36. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Angels | B.Penny vs E.Santana | Dodgers | 53.95 | Angels |
| Giants vs A's | B.Zito vs C.Gaudin | A's | 52.65 | A's |
| Padres vs Mariners | C.Young vs M.Batista | Padres | 54.84 | Padres |
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, May 17th
| Simulations for Thursday, May 17th. Current prediction record is 51-34. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| DBacks vs Rockies | L.Hernandez vs J.Fogg | Rockies | 52.50 | DBacks |
| Giants vs Astros | T.Lincecum vs R.Oswalt | Astros | 60.75 | Giants |
Simulations for Wednesday, May 16th
| Simulations for Wednesday, May 16th. Current prediction record is 48-33. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cardinals vs Dodgers | K.Wells vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 57.06 | Dodgers |
| Reds vs Padres | B.Arroyo vs J.Peavy | Padres | 63.00 | Padres |
| DBacks vs Rockies | B.Webb vs A.Cook | DBacks | 56.67 | Rockies |
| Giants vs Astros | N.Lowry vs M.Albers | Astros | 60.83 | Astros |
Monday, May 14, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, May 15th
| Simulations for Tuesday, May 15th. Current prediction record is 45-32. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cardinals vs Dodgers | A.Wainwright vs D.Lowe | Dodgers | 58.38 | Dodgers |
| Reds vs Padres | A.Harang vs D.Wells | Padres | 51.72 | Reds |
| DBacks vs Rockies | R.Johnson vs J.Hirsh | DBacks | 59.83 | DBacks |
| Giants vs Astros | M.Morris vs W.Williams | Astros | 62.16 | Astros |
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Simulations for Monday, May 14th
| Simulations for Monday, May 14th. Current prediction record is 43-31. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Cardinals vs Dodgers | B.Thompson vs B.Tomko | Dodgers | 59.10 | Cardinals |
| Reds vs Padres | M.Belisle vs G.Maddux | Padres | 57.16 | Padres |
| Cubs vs Mets | J.Marquis vs T.Glavine | Mets | 54.52 | Mets |
Friday, May 11, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, May 12th
| Simulations for Saturday, May 12th. Current prediction record is 42-30. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Reds vs Dodgers | K.Lohse vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 62.11 | Dodgers |
| Cardinals vs Padres | B.Looper vs C.Young | Padres | TBA | Cardinals |
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Simulations for Friday, May 11th
| Simulations for Friday, May 11th. Current prediction record is 40-29. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Reds vs Dodgers | B.Arroyo vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 56.16 | Dodgers |
| Giants vs Rockies | T.Lincecum vs J.Fogg | Rockies | 56.33 | Giants |
| Cardinals vs Padres | K.Wells vs J.Peavy | Padres | 57.00 | Padres |
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, May 10th
| Simulations for Thursday, May 10th. Current prediction record is 38-29. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Marlins | D.Lowe vs S.Mitre | Marlins | 51.22 | Marlins |
| Giants vs Rockies | N.Lowry vs A.Cook | Rockies | 58.44 | Rockies |
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday, May 9th
| Simulations for Wednesday, May 9th. Current prediction record is 36-29. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Marlins | B.Tomko vs D.Willis | Dodgers | 53.21 | Dodgers |
| Mets vs Giants | J.Maine vs M.Morris | Mets | 54.24 | Mets |
Monday, May 07, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, May 8th
| Simulations for Tuesday, May 8th. Current prediction record is 35-28. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Marlins | M.Hendrickson vs W.Obermueller | Dodgers | 53.44 | Marlins |
| Mets vs Giants | T.Glavine vs M.Cain | Mets | 54.78 | Mets |
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Simulations for Monday, May 7th
| Simulations for Monday, May 7th. Current prediction record is 34-28. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Marlins | B.Penny vs R.Nolasco | Dodgers | 55.00 | Dodgers |
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, May 6th
| Simulations for Sunday, May 6th. Current prediction record is 31-28. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Braves | R.Wolf vs K.Davies | Braves | 53.77 | Braves |
| Phillies vs Giants | C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum | Phillies | 56.72 | Phillies |
| Padres vs Marlins | J.Peavy vs S.Olsen | Padres | 51.15 | Padres |
Friday, May 04, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, May 5th
| Simulations for Saturday, May 5th. Current prediction record is 30-24. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Braves | D.Lowe vs T.Hudson | Braves | 54.33 | Dodgers |
| Padres vs Marlins | D.Wells vs S.Mitre | Marlins | 50.27 | Padres |
| Mets vs DBacks | J.Sosa vs B.Webb | Arizona | 55.66 | Mets |
| Philles vs Giants | J.Lieber vs N.Lowry | Phillies | 51.28 | Giants |
| Rockies vs Reds | A.Cook vs A.Harang | Rockies | 50.11 | Rockies |
Simulations for Friday, May 4th
| Simulations for Friday, May 4th. Current prediction record is 26-23. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Braves | B.Tomko vs J.Smoltz | Braves | 55.94 | Braves |
| Padres vs Marlins | G.Maddux vs D.Willis | Marlins | 51.55 | Marlins |
| Rockies vs Reds | J.Hirsh vs M.Belisle | Rockies | 50.28 | Rockies |
| Mets vs DBacks | J.Maine vs R.Johnson | DBacks | 52.94 | Mets |
| Phillies vs Giants | J.Moyer vs M.Morris | Giants | 50.44 | Giants |
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, May 3rd
| Simulations for Thursday, May 3rd. Current prediction record is 26-22. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Phillies vs Giants | A.Eaton vs M.Cain | Giants | 51.94 | Phillies |
Simulations for Wednesday, May 2nd
| Simulations for Wednesday, May 2nd. Current prediction record is 23-22. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| DBacks vs Dodgers | D.Davis vs M.Hendrickson | Dodgers | 53.50 | Dodgers |
| Rockies vs Giants | S.Francis vs B.Zito | Giants | 66.05 | Giants |
| Nationals vs Padres | M.Chico vs C.Hensley | Padres | 63.55 | Padres |
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, May 1st
| Simulations for Tuesday, May 1st. Current prediction record is 21-20. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| DBacks vs Dodgers | L.Hernandez vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 61.38 | Dodgers |
| Rockies vs Giants | T.Buchholz vs R.Ortiz | Giants | 70.88 | Rockies |
| Nationals vs Padres | S.Hill vs C.Young | Padres | 58.22 | Padres |
| Reds vs Astros | B.Arroyo vs M.Albers | Astros | 57.94 | Reds |
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Simulations for Monday, April 30th
| Simulations for Monday, April 30th. Current prediction record is 18-19. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| DBacks vs Dodgers | B.Webb vs R.Wolf | DBacks | 51.11 | DBacks |
| Rockies vs Giants | J.Fogg vs N.Lowry | Giants | 53.94 | Giants |
| Nationals vs Padres | J.Patterson vs J.Peavy | Padres | 57.72 | Nationals |
| Cardinals vs Brewers | K.Wells vs J.Suppan | Brewers | 53.33 | Brewers |
Friday, April 27, 2007
Simulations for Friday, April 27th
| Simulations for Friday, April 27th. Current prediction record is 16-17. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Padres | M.Hendrickson vs C.Hensley | Padres | 61.83 | Dodgers |
| Giants vs DBacks | B.Zito vs D.Davis | DBacks | 58.83 | DBacks |
| Braves vs Rockies | C.James vs J.Francis | Braves | 65.67 | Braves |
| Red Sox vs Yankees | D.Matsuzaka vs A.Pettitte | Yankees | 53.62 | Red Sox |
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, April 26th
| Simulations for Thursday, April 26th. Current prediction record is 16-14. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Giants vs Dodgers | R.Ortiz vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 64.88 | Giants |
| Padres vs DBacks | C.Young vs L.Hernandez | Padres | 50.50 | DBacks |
| Blue Jays vs Yankees | A.Burnett vs P.Hughes | Yankees | 64.38 | Blue Jays |
Simulations for Wednesday, April 25th
| Simulations for Wednesday, April 25th. Current prediction record is 15-12. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Giants vs Dodgers | N.Lowry vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 53.11 | Giants |
| Padres vs DBacks | J.Peavy vs B.Webb | DBacks | 57.16 | DBacks |
| Rockies vs Mets | J.Fogg vs M.Pelfrey | Mets | 79.33 | Rockies |
Monday, April 23, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, April 24th
| Simulations for Tuesday, April 24th. Current prediction record is 14-10. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Giants vs Dodgers | M.Morris vs D.Lowe | Dodgers | 64.00 | Giants |
| Padres vs DBacks | D.Wells vs R.Johnson | DBacks | 64.72 | Padres |
| Rockies vs Mets | A.Cook vs O.Hernandez | Mets | 68.66 | Mets |
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Simulations for Monday, April 23rd
| Simulations for Monday, April 23rd. Current prediction record is 13-8. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Braves vs Marlins | K.Davies vs D.Willis | Marlins | 50.66 | Marlins |
| Tigers vs Angels | M.Maroth vs J.Weaver | Angels | 54.44 | Tigers |
| A's vs Orioles | D.Haren vs E.Bedard | Orioles | 52.50 | A's |
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, April 22nd
| Simulations for Sunday, April 22nd. Current prediction record is 12-7. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Pirates vs Dodgers | T.Gorzelanny vs B.Tomko | Dodgers | 55.78 | Pirates |
| Braves vs Mets | J.Smoltz vs T.Glavine | Braves | 53.87 | Braves |
Friday, April 20, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, April 21st
| Simulations for Saturday, April 21st. Current prediction record is 10-4. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Pirates vs Dodgers | I.Snell vs B.Penny | Dodgers | 56.27 | Dodgers |
| DBacks vs Giants | E.Gonzalez vs B.Zito | Giants | 51.48% | Giants |
| Padres vs Rockies | C.Hensley vs S.Francis | Rockies | 51.27% | Padres |
| Yankees vs Red Sox | J.Karstens vs J.Beckett | Yankees | 51.00% | Red Sox |
| Astros vs Brewers | W.Rodriguez vs C.Capuano | Astros | 50.33% | Brewers |
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Simulations for Friday, April 20th
| Simulations for friday, April 20th. Current prediction record is 7-3. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Pirates vs Dodgers | T.Armas vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 54.54 | Dodgers |
| DBacks vs Giants | D.Davis vs R.Ortiz | DBacks | 54.55 | Giants |
| Padres vs Rockies | C.Young vs J.Fogg | Padres | 52.44 | Padres |
| Yankees vs Red Sox | A.Pettitte vs C.Schilling | Red Sox | 53.84 | Red Sox |
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Simulations for Thursday April 19th
| Simulations for Thursday April 19th. Current prediction record is 5-2. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Rockies | M.Hendrickson vs A.Cook | Rockies | 57.27 | Dodgers |
| Cardinals vs Giants | K.Wells vs N.Lowry | Giants | 53.41 | Giants |
| DBacks vs Padres | L.Hernandez vs J.Peavy | Padres | 60.86 | Padres |
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday April 18th
| Simulations for Wednesday April 18th. Current prediction record is 3-2. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Rockies | D.Lowe vs R.Lopez | Rockies | 50.05 | Rockies |
| DBacks vs Padres | B.Webb vs D.Wells | Tie | 50.00 | DBacks |
| Cardinals vs Giants | R.Keisler vs M.Morris | Giants | 53.44 | Giants |
Monday, April 16, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday April 17th
| Simulations for Monday April 16th. Current prediction record is 2-0. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Diamondbacks | B.Tomko vs M.Owings | Diamondbacks | 52.72 | Dodgers |
| Padres vs Cubs | G.Maddux vs W.Miller | Cubs | 53.77 | Padres |
| Giants vs Rockies | M.Cain vs J.Hirsh | Rockies | 51.33 | Rockies |
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Simulations for Monday April 16th...
| Simulations for Monday April 16th. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs Diamondbacks | B.Penny vs E.Gonzalez | Dodgers | 50.33 | Dodgers |
| Padres vs Cubs | C.Hensley vs J.Marquis | Cubs | 50.72 | Cubs |
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Simulation Madness
| 2007 Pre-Season Simulation Championship Tournament | |||||
| each round is best 4 out of 7 games. | |||||
| 1R | 2R | QF | SF | Finals | Champion |
| (16) WAS - 2 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (1) STL - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (1) STL - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (1) STL - 3 |   |   |   |
| (9) MIL - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (9) MIL - 1 |   |   |   |   |
| (8) HOU - 1 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   | (4) CHN - 4 |   |   |
| (13) SF - 0 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (4) CHN - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (4) CHN - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (4) CHN - 4 |   |   |   |
| (12) FLA - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (12) FLA - 3 |   |   |   |   |
| (5) PHI - 2 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   | (4) CHN - 2 |   |
| (14) PIT - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (14) PIT - 3 |   |   |   |   |
| (3) SD - 3 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (11) ATL - 3 |   |   |   |
| (11) ATL - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (11) ATL - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (6) ARI - 0 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   | (2) NYM - 2 |   |   |
| (10) CIN - 1 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (7) LAD - 2 |   |   |   |   |
| (7) LAD - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (2) NYM - 4 |   |   |   |
| (15) COL - 3 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (2) NYM - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (2) NYM - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   | Boston |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |
| BYE |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (1) DET - 1 |   |   |   |   |
| (1) DET |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (9) CLE - 3 |   |   |   |
| (9) CLE - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (9) CLE - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (8) LAA - 1 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   | (4) MIN - 3 |   |   |
| (12) BAL - 3 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (5) TOR - 2 |   |   |   |   |
| (5) TOR - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (4) MIN - 4 |   |   |   |
| (13) TB - 2 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (4) MIN - 3 |   |   |   |   |
| (4) MIN - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   | (3) BOS - 4 |   |
| (11) SEA - 0 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (6) OAK - 3 |   |   |   |   |
| (6) OAK - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (3) BOS - 4 |   |   |   |
| (14) KC - 3 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (3) BOS - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (3) BOS - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   | (3) BOS - 4 |   |   |
| (10) TEX- 2 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (7) CWS - 1 |   |   |   |   |
| (7) CWS - 4 |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   | (2) NYY - 2 |   |   |   |
| BYE |   |   |   |   |   |
|   | (2) NYY - 4 |   |   |   |   |
| (2) NYY |   |   |   |   |   |
Friday, February 09, 2007
2007 NL West Overview
All the data is in from my NL West head to head simulations. Each team was pitted against each other, with each pitcher facing each pitcher in a 2500 game simulation. The simulation was not measuring Pitcher A vs Pitcher B, it was measuring Pitcher A + Offese A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B. My findings are not meant as gospel, they are only meant to provide another data source for predicting how the NL West will finish.
Summary:
San Diego Padres: The Padres dominated the simulations with a rotation that went four deep (Peavy, Young, Maddux and Hensley). Only Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson were able to breakthrough against the foursome. The Padres success came from their pitching, both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The offense was adequate enough for the NL West. The Padres are the favorite to win the NL West.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The youth has thawed out. The Diamondbacks are ready to throw their young guns to the fire. The offense is littered with talent and inexperience. Past his prime, outfielder Luis Gonzalez is pitching his tent at Chavez Ravine. The youth is talented and should be able to hold it's own in the NL West. The acquisition of Randy Johnson and Doug Davis solidify a rotation that was being carried by Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The Diamondbacks biggest concern has to be their depth, and with Johnson's injury history alot of the team's success will hinge on his health. Webb and Peavy will get most of the aclilades, but a healthy Johnson could prove to be just as good. The Diamondbacks are predicted for a 2nd place tie.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Youth is also on the Dodgers menu, but the regular chef is at home trimming his mustache. Therefore the Dodgers have served up a five course meal of Juan Pierre, an over-ripe Luis Gonzalez, a tender slab of Randy Wolf, two scoops of Nomar with a cherry on top. The Dodgers will benefit from their depth, but will also suffer from the more talented youth that will be blocked for atleast another year (Loney, Kemp and LaRoche). Guo should be in the starting rotation and Billingsley should eventually find his way into the rotation too. The Dodger offense will struggle to score runs but luckily for them the rotation is solid for the most part and the bullpen should have atleast three very good arms. The Dodgers depth should help put the Dodgers on equal footing as the Diamondbacks in the final standings.
San Francisco Giants: Starting pitching should be a wash from last year with the departure of Schmidt and the addition of Zito and Sanchez to the starting rotation. The bullpen was awful last year, and in good news, should regress back towards the mean this year (that is of course if they trade Benitez). The Giants do have some good young arms in their system, wake me up when Tim Lincecum gets called up. A good impression is not what you get from the Giants lineup. When Bonds is healthy the offense is average but when he's not... the Giants better hope for rain. Any finish above fourth place will be a surprise. Last place is more likely than 2nd place.
Colorado Rockies: Fresh new faces at both the top and bottom of the order. This years Rockies are not your grandmothers Rockies. Taveras and Kaz Matsui attempt to match the top of the Dodgers order slap single for slap single. The Rockies offense won't strike fear into many teams and the pitching staff will strike fear into those sitting in the left field bleachers. The Rockies jettisonned one of their best starting pitchers in Jeff Francis to the Houston Astros, in a deal that will have short term woes but long term gains (Hirsh). The Rockies shouldn't be much of a factor in the NL West in 2007. They should have solid ownership of the NL West cellar for most of the season. Well, maybe they are your grandmothers Rockies afterall.
Summary:
San Diego Padres: The Padres dominated the simulations with a rotation that went four deep (Peavy, Young, Maddux and Hensley). Only Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson were able to breakthrough against the foursome. The Padres success came from their pitching, both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The offense was adequate enough for the NL West. The Padres are the favorite to win the NL West.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The youth has thawed out. The Diamondbacks are ready to throw their young guns to the fire. The offense is littered with talent and inexperience. Past his prime, outfielder Luis Gonzalez is pitching his tent at Chavez Ravine. The youth is talented and should be able to hold it's own in the NL West. The acquisition of Randy Johnson and Doug Davis solidify a rotation that was being carried by Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The Diamondbacks biggest concern has to be their depth, and with Johnson's injury history alot of the team's success will hinge on his health. Webb and Peavy will get most of the aclilades, but a healthy Johnson could prove to be just as good. The Diamondbacks are predicted for a 2nd place tie.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Youth is also on the Dodgers menu, but the regular chef is at home trimming his mustache. Therefore the Dodgers have served up a five course meal of Juan Pierre, an over-ripe Luis Gonzalez, a tender slab of Randy Wolf, two scoops of Nomar with a cherry on top. The Dodgers will benefit from their depth, but will also suffer from the more talented youth that will be blocked for atleast another year (Loney, Kemp and LaRoche). Guo should be in the starting rotation and Billingsley should eventually find his way into the rotation too. The Dodger offense will struggle to score runs but luckily for them the rotation is solid for the most part and the bullpen should have atleast three very good arms. The Dodgers depth should help put the Dodgers on equal footing as the Diamondbacks in the final standings.
San Francisco Giants: Starting pitching should be a wash from last year with the departure of Schmidt and the addition of Zito and Sanchez to the starting rotation. The bullpen was awful last year, and in good news, should regress back towards the mean this year (that is of course if they trade Benitez). The Giants do have some good young arms in their system, wake me up when Tim Lincecum gets called up. A good impression is not what you get from the Giants lineup. When Bonds is healthy the offense is average but when he's not... the Giants better hope for rain. Any finish above fourth place will be a surprise. Last place is more likely than 2nd place.
Colorado Rockies: Fresh new faces at both the top and bottom of the order. This years Rockies are not your grandmothers Rockies. Taveras and Kaz Matsui attempt to match the top of the Dodgers order slap single for slap single. The Rockies offense won't strike fear into many teams and the pitching staff will strike fear into those sitting in the left field bleachers. The Rockies jettisonned one of their best starting pitchers in Jeff Francis to the Houston Astros, in a deal that will have short term woes but long term gains (Hirsh). The Rockies shouldn't be much of a factor in the NL West in 2007. They should have solid ownership of the NL West cellar for most of the season. Well, maybe they are your grandmothers Rockies afterall.
ZIPS Simulation: Giants vs Rockies
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. This simulation is a measure of Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B, not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B. | |||||
| Giants vs Rockies | |||||
| Pitcher | Cook | Francis | Fogg | Kim | Lopez |
| Cain | .605 | .593 | .663 | .627 | .658 |
| Zito | .577 | .597 | .646 | .636 | .662 |
| Lowry | .568 | .578 | .631 | .586 | .633 |
| Morris | .561 | .556 | .588 | .573 | .611 |
| Sanchez | .544 | .566 | .638 | .583 | .621 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Giants | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Thursday, February 08, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Diamondbacks vs Rockies
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. This simulation is a measure of Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B, not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B. | |||||
| Diamondbacks vs Rockies | |||||
| Pitcher | Cook | Francis | Fogg | Kim | Lopez |
| Webb | .626 | .663 | .701 | .656 | .709 |
| Johnson | .624 | .653 | .675 | .651 | .712 |
| Hernandez | .582 | .553 | .659 | .585 | .637 |
| Davis | .613 | .646 | .687 | .658 | .693 |
| Ed.Gonzalez | .499 | .572 | .583 | .568 | .583 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Diamondbacks | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Dodgers
| Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. These simulations are meant to measure Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B. Not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B. | ||||||
| Padres vs Dodgers | ||||||
| Pitcher | Schmidt | Lowe | Penny | Wolf | Billingsley | Guo |
| Peavy | .550 | .536 | .563 | .592 | .607 | .554 |
| Young | .519 | .502 | .535 | .578 | .572 | .541 |
| Maddux | .524 | .509 | .540 | .573 | .569 | .526 |
| Hensley | .518 | .528 | .518 | .548 | .548 | .527 |
| Wells | .487 | .473 | .476 | .524 | .528 | .490 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Diamondbacks
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. The sim is not measuring Pitcher A vs Pitcher B, it is measuring (Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A) vs (Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B). | |||||
| Padres vs Diamondbacks | |||||
| Pitcher | Webb | Johnson | Hernandez | Davis | Ed.Gonzalez |
| Peavy | .531 | .535 | .620 | .572 | .606 |
| Young | .490 | .465 | .592 | .524 | .566 |
| Maddux | .506 | .502 | .591 | .546 | .581 |
| Hensley | .508 | .484 | .580 | .535 | .584 |
| Wells | .435 | .445 | .538 | .512 | .547 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Monday, February 05, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Giants vs Dodgers
| Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Think of this as Pitcher A + Offense A vs Pitcher B + Offense B, not Pitcher A vs Pitcher B. | |||||
| Dodgers vs Giants | |||||
| Pitcher | Cain | Zito | Lowry | Morris | Sanchez |
| Schmidt | .560 | .565 | .568 | .581 | .587 |
| Lowe | .570 | .583 | .564 | .563 | .593 |
| Penny | .560 | .539 | .574 | .575 | .582 |
| Wolf | .532 | .527 | .525 | .529 | .560 |
| Billingsley | .512 | .527 | .524 | .527 | .549 |
| Guo | .534 | .547 | .539 | .562 | .586 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 3 |
| Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Saturday, February 03, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Diamondbacks vs Giants
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. | |||||
| Diamondbacks vs Giants | |||||
| Pitcher | Cain | Zito | Lowry | Morris | Sanchez |
| Webb | .603 | .605 | .597 | .621 | .626 |
| Johnson | .597 | .598 | .624 | .636 | .632 |
| Hernandez | .530 | .531 | .543 | .529 | .568 |
| Davis | .560 | .540 | .570 | .563 | .595 |
| Ed.Gonzalez | .542 | .520 | .520 | .518 | .585 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Friday, February 02, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Rockies
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. | |||||
| Padres vs Rockies | |||||
| Pitcher | Cook | Francis | Fogg | Kim | Lopez |
| Peavy | .660 | .651 | .728 | .676 | .711 |
| Young | .617 | .631 | .703 | .651 | .719 |
| Maddux | .591 | .593 | .650 | .584 | .659 |
| Hensley | .632 | .646 | .697 | .678 | .715 |
| Wells | .515 | .516 | .618 | .536 | .608 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Padres | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sunday, January 28, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: DBacks vs Dodgers
| Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. | ||||||
| Diamondbacks vs Dodgers | ||||||
| Pitcher | Schmidt | Lowe | Penny | Wolf | Billingsley | Guo |
| Webb | .551 | .517 | .540 | .563 | .563 | .536 |
| Johnson | .552 | .549 | .534 | .580 | .556 | .537 |
| Hernandez | .450 | .447 | .466 | .522 | .470 | .445 |
| Davis | .487 | .495 | .479 | .549 | .534 | .486 |
| Gonzalez | .444 | .462 | .455 | .484 | .489 | .440 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Giants
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. | |||||
| Padres vs Giants | |||||
| Pitcher | Cain | Zito | Lowry | Morris | Sanchez |
| Peavy | .633 | .634 | .644 | .650 | .675 |
| Young | .613 | .614 | .614 | .616 | .621 |
| Maddux | .592 | .595 | .597 | .606 | .624 |
| Hensley | .580 | .598 | .587 | .591 | .622 |
| Wells | .549 | .550 | .556 | .571 | .593 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Padres | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Monday, January 22, 2007
ZIPS Simulation: Rockies vs Dodgers
| Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. | |||||
| Rockies vs Dodgers | |||||
| Pitcher | Cook | Francis | Fogg | Kim | Lopez |
| Schmidt | .645 | .652 | .687 | .682 | .697 |
| Lowe | .593 | .613 | .639 | .616 | .648 |
| Penny | .614 | .621 | .660 | .614 | .654 |
| Wolf | .569 | .593 | .617 | .604 | .629 |
| Billingsley | .602 | .604 | .661 | .610 | .665 |
| Guo | .622 | .637 | .679 | .668 | .692 |
|   | > .675 | > .650 | > .625 | > .600 | > .575 | > .550 | > .525 | > .500 |
| Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dodgers | 5 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Current project
I am currently using my baseball simulator program to project win expectancy for every NL West starting pitching matchup using ZIPS for player projections and RotoTimes for most likely lineups, starting rotations and bullpens. Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times. Each team plays half of it's games at home and half of it's games on the road. I will be posting the results on a team vs team basis. I will begin posting results the last week of January.
vr, Xeifrank
Thursday, October 26, 2006
World Series Game 5: Detroit vs St Louis
| Game 5: Justin Verlander vs Jeff Weaver | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 3.503 | 45.2% | .4863 |
| St Louis | 3.6 | 55.8% | .5137 |
| Slight Advantage: Cardinals | |||
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
World Series Game 4: Detroit vs St Louis
| Game 4: Jeremy Bonderman vs Jeff Suppan | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 3.468 | 46.5% | .5045 |
| St Louis | 3.437 | 53.5% | .4955 |
| Slight Advantage: Tigers (Toss Up) | |||
World Series Game 3: Detroit vs St Louis
| Game 3: Nate Robertson vs Chris Carpenter | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 3.01 | 37.8% | .3899 |
| St Louis | 3.77 | 62.6% | .6101 |
| Advantage: Cardinals | |||
Saturday, October 21, 2006
World Series Game 2: St Louis vs Detroit
| Game 2: Jeff Weaver vs Kenny Rogers | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 5.188 | 62.6% | .6523 |
| Detroit | 3.788 | 37.4% | .3477 |
| Big Advantage: Cardinals | |||
World Series Game 1: St Louis vs Detroit
| Game 1: Anthony Reyes vs Justin Verlander | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 4.622 | 52.8% | .5568 |
| Detroit | 4.124 | 47.2% | .4432 |
| Advantage: Cardinals | |||
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
NLCS Game 7: St Louis vs New York
| Game 7: Jeff Suppan vs Oliver Perez | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 5.27 | 51.1% | .556 |
| New York | 4.71 | 48.9% | .444 |
| Advantage: Cardinals | |||
NLCS Game 6: Carpenter vs Maine
| Game 6: Carpenter vs Maine | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 4.40 | 49.2% | .529 |
| New York | 4.16 | 50.8% | .471 |
| Slight Advantage: Cardinals | |||
Sunday, October 15, 2006
NLCS Game 5: New York vs St Louis
| Game 5 Glavine vs Weaver | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| New York | 5.27 | 53.3% | .582 |
| St Louis | 4.67 | 46.7% | .418 |
| Advantage: Mets | |||
Saturday, October 14, 2006
NLCS Game 4: New York vs St Louis
| Game 4 Perez vs Reyes | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| New York | 4.5 | 40% | .475 |
| St Louis | 4.73 | 60% | .525 |
| Slight Advantage: Cardinals | |||
Friday, October 13, 2006
NLCS Game 2: St Louis vs New York
| Game 2: Carpenter vs Maine | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 4.36 | 43.3% | .474 |
| New York | 4.6 | 56.6% | .526 |
| Slight Advantage: Mets | |||
ALCS Game 3: Oakland vs Detroit
| Game 3: Harden vs Rogers | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Oakland | 3.93 | 46.7 | .483 |
| Detroit | 4.07 | 53.3% | .517 |
| Slight Advantage: Detroit | |||
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
ALCS Game 2: Detroit vs Oakland
| Game 2: Verlander vs Loaiza | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 4.28 | 44% | .455 |
| Oakland | 4.68 | 56% | .545 |
| Slight Advantage: A's | |||
NLCS Game 1: St Louis vs New York
| Game 1: Weaver vs Glavine | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 5.78 | 46% | .518 |
| New York | 5.58 | 54% | .482 |
| Slight Advantage: Cardinals | |||
ALCS Game 1: Detroit vs Oakland
| Game 1: Robertson vs Zito | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 4.58 | 52% | .536 |
| Oakland | 4.26 | 48% | .464 |
| Slight Advantage: Tigers | |||
Saturday, October 07, 2006
Game 4: San Diego vs St Louis
| Game 4: Williams vs Carpenter | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| San Diego | 4.16 | 56% | .561 |
| St Louis | 3.68 | 44% | .439 |
| Advantage: Padres | |||
Friday, October 06, 2006
Game 4: New York vs Detroit
| Game 4: Wright vs Bonderman | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| New York | 7.20 | 64% | .707 |
| Detroit | 4.64 | 36% | .293 |
| Big Advantage: Yankees | |||
Game 3: San Diego vs St Louis
| Game 3: Young vs Suppan | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| San Diego | 5.40 | 72% | .726 |
| St Louis | 3.32 | 28% | .274 |
| Big Advantage: Padres | |||
Game 3: New York vs Detroit
| Game 3: Johnson vs Rogers | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| New York | 7.75 | 72.5% | .698 |
| Detroit | 5.10 | 27.5% | .302 |
| Big Advantage: Yankees | |||
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Game 3: New York vs Los Angeles
| Game 3: Trachsel vs Maddux | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| New York | 5.16 | 60% | .601 |
| Los Angeles | 4.20 | 40% | .399 |
| Advantage: Mets | |||
Game 3: Minnesota vs Oakland
| Game 3: Radke vs Haren | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Minnesota | 4.80 | 52% | .526 |
| Oakland | 4.56 | 48% | .474 |
| Slight Advantage: Twins | |||
Monday, October 02, 2006
St Louis vs San Diego
| Game 1: Carpenter vs Peavy | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 4.88 | 64% | .643 |
| San Diego | 3.64 | 36% | .357 |
| Advantage: Cardinals | |||
| Game 2: Weaver vs Wells | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| St Louis | 5.24 | 52% | .548 |
| San Diego | 4.76 | 48% | .452 |
| Advantage: Cardinals | |||
| Outcomes | Odds | ||
| Cardinals lead 2-0 | 35.2% | ||
| Series tied 1-1 | 48.7% | ||
| Padres lead 2-0 | 16.1% | ||
Detroit vs New York
| Game 1: Robertson vs Wang | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 5.32 | 52% | .440 |
| New York | 6.0 | 48% | .560 |
| Advantage: Yankees | |||
| Game 2: Verlander vs Mussina | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Detroit | 4.32 | 40% | .366 |
| New York | 5.68 | 60% | .634 |
| Advantage: Yankees | |||
| Outcomes | Odds | ||
| Yankees lead 2-0 | 35.5% | ||
| Series tied 1-1 | 48.4% | ||
| Tigers lead 2-0 | 16.1% | ||
Los Angeles vs New York
| Game 1: Lowe vs Maine | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Los Angeles | 4.12 | 40% | .420 |
| New York | 4.84 | 60% | .580 |
| Advantage: Mets | |||
| Game 2: Guo vs Glavine | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Los Angeles | 5.64 | 44% | .518 |
| New York | 5.44 | 56% | .482 |
| Slight Advantage: Dodgers | |||
| Outcomes | Odds | ||
| Mets lead 2-0 | 28.0% | ||
| Series tied 1-1 | 50.2% | ||
| Dodgers lead 2-0 | 21.8% | ||
Oakland vs Minnesota
| Game 1: Zito vs Santana | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Oakland | 5.24 | 56% | .508 |
| Minnesota | 5.16 | 44% | .492 |
| Slight Advantage: A's | |||
| Game 2: Loaiza vs Boonser | |||
| Team | Average Runs | % Games won | Pyth. |
| Oakland | 4.8 | 44% | .526 |
| Minnesota | 4.56 | 56% | .474 |
| Slight Advantage: A's | |||
| Outcomes | Odds | ||
| A's lead 2-0 | 30.5% | ||
| Series tied 1-1 | 46.2% | ||
| Twins lead 2-0 | 23.3% | ||
2006 Playoff Sims
I will be using the baseball game simulator program that I wrote to simulate playoff game outcomes. I will run a sample size of 25 (now up to 1,000 games for the World Series) games for each game. I will run the first two games of each series, then I will simulate each remaining game the day of or the night before that game is to be played.
How does the software work? A text file of hitting and pitching stats is used to determine the likeliehood of each at bat outcome. Hitting outcomes are determined on an at-bat by at-bat basis and not a pitch by pitch basis. The software uses a random number generator to determine if the batter gets on base. If his OBP is .400 and the random number is less than .400 then he gets on base. Once he is on base then this same random number is used to determine what kind of hit it is, or if it is a walk based on single, double, triple, HR and walk rates. A constant vs LHP vs RHP split is used to account for lefty pitcher vs lefty hitter type of situations. Good pitchers are given an advantage over bad pitchers in that they begin the game with a number that is subtracted off of the hitters OBP/batting average etc... This number is decreased for each batter the pitcher faces, thus simulating a pitcher getting tired the more pitches he throws. Artificial intelligence algorithms determine when to steal, sac bunt, pinch hit, bring in a new pitcher or throw a beach ball onto the field. Lineups and pitching matchups are selectable and there is an option for using a DH instead of having the pitcher bat, for American League simulated games. This is all I can think of as far as a description goes for now. If you have any questions, please send them to: xeifrank@yahoo.com
vr, Xei
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Simulated Game: 7/2 ... Dodgers vs Angels
Dodgers: 0-4-0
Angels.: 1-7-0
Dodgers: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
.Angels: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-X
What a difference a day makes! This time the Dodgers were on the losing end of a CG shutout. J.Lackey was sharp in only allowing Dodger hitters 4 hits while striking out 8 batters. The games only run came on an RBI single by G.Anderson which netted O.Cabrera. The Dodgers staged a brief rally in the 9th inning, when R.Martin got a 2 out walk followed by a pinch hit double by O.Saenz that moved Martin to third base. Shortstop R.Furcal then ended the game by grounding out to 2nd.
WP: J.Lackey
LP: J.Broxton
HR: None
Dodgers Team OPS: 0.432
.Angels Team OPS: 0.747
Angels.: 1-7-0
Dodgers: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
.Angels: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-X
What a difference a day makes! This time the Dodgers were on the losing end of a CG shutout. J.Lackey was sharp in only allowing Dodger hitters 4 hits while striking out 8 batters. The games only run came on an RBI single by G.Anderson which netted O.Cabrera. The Dodgers staged a brief rally in the 9th inning, when R.Martin got a 2 out walk followed by a pinch hit double by O.Saenz that moved Martin to third base. Shortstop R.Furcal then ended the game by grounding out to 2nd.
WP: J.Lackey
LP: J.Broxton
HR: None
Dodgers Team OPS: 0.432
.Angels Team OPS: 0.747
Simulated Game: 7/1 ... Dodgers vs Angels
Dodgers: 13-16-0
Angels.: 0-9-0
Dodgers: 4-0-1-3-0-2-0-2-1
.Angels: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Dodger bats got healthy, victimizing the struggling K.Escobar for 8 earned runs in 3+ innings. The big blows were a first inning three run homer by M.Kemp and a 2 run shot by J.Kent in the 4th inning. The newly acquired M.Hendrickson scattered 9 hits, forcing Angels hitters to hit into 3 double plays, while going the distance. Nomar Garciappara had four hits, scored 4 runs and drove in three.
WP: M.Hendrickson
LP: K.Escobar
HR: M.Kemp, J.Kent
Dodgers Team OPS: 1.125
Angels Team OPS: 0.697
Angels.: 0-9-0
Dodgers: 4-0-1-3-0-2-0-2-1
.Angels: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Dodger bats got healthy, victimizing the struggling K.Escobar for 8 earned runs in 3+ innings. The big blows were a first inning three run homer by M.Kemp and a 2 run shot by J.Kent in the 4th inning. The newly acquired M.Hendrickson scattered 9 hits, forcing Angels hitters to hit into 3 double plays, while going the distance. Nomar Garciappara had four hits, scored 4 runs and drove in three.
WP: M.Hendrickson
LP: K.Escobar
HR: M.Kemp, J.Kent
Dodgers Team OPS: 1.125
Angels Team OPS: 0.697
Simulated Game: 6/30 ... Dodgers vs Angels
Dodgers: 5-13-0
Angels.: 6-11-0
Dodgers: 2-0-0-0-2-0-1-0-0
.Angels: 0-3-1-0-0-1-1-0-X
The Dodgers got off to a quick start as JD Drew drove in two runs in the first inning. The game see-sawed back and forth. K.Morales clubbed a 3-Run HR in the 2nd inning and V.Guerrero doubled home the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 7th inning.
WP: B.Donnelly
LP: D.Baez
Save: F.Rodriguez
HR: K.Morales
Dodgers Team OPS: 0.852
Angels Team OPS: 0.838
Angels.: 6-11-0
Dodgers: 2-0-0-0-2-0-1-0-0
.Angels: 0-3-1-0-0-1-1-0-X
The Dodgers got off to a quick start as JD Drew drove in two runs in the first inning. The game see-sawed back and forth. K.Morales clubbed a 3-Run HR in the 2nd inning and V.Guerrero doubled home the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 7th inning.
WP: B.Donnelly
LP: D.Baez
Save: F.Rodriguez
HR: K.Morales
Dodgers Team OPS: 0.852
Angels Team OPS: 0.838
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
Simulated Game: 6/28 ... Dodgers vs Twins
Dodgers: 4-9-0
Twins..: 3-10-0
Dodgers: 1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-0-1
Twins..: 1-0-0-1-0-0-0-1-0-0
Odalis Perez held his own against J.Santana and the Dodgers were able to break through against the Twins bullpen to win in 10 innings. R.Furcal went 4 for 5 with three singles and a home run to lead off the game with. N.Punto and J.Mauer both went 3 for 5 for the Twins in a losing cause.
WP: J.Broxton
LP: W.Eyre
Save: T.Saito
HR: R.Furcal, J.Cruz
Dodger Team OPS: 0.684
.Twins Team OPS: 0.658
Twins..: 3-10-0
Dodgers: 1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-0-1
Twins..: 1-0-0-1-0-0-0-1-0-0
Odalis Perez held his own against J.Santana and the Dodgers were able to break through against the Twins bullpen to win in 10 innings. R.Furcal went 4 for 5 with three singles and a home run to lead off the game with. N.Punto and J.Mauer both went 3 for 5 for the Twins in a losing cause.
WP: J.Broxton
LP: W.Eyre
Save: T.Saito
HR: R.Furcal, J.Cruz
Dodger Team OPS: 0.684
.Twins Team OPS: 0.658
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Simulated Game: 6/27 ... Dodgers vs Twins
Dodgers: 5-15-0
Twins..: 3-5-0
Dodgers: 1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-2
Twins..: 0-0-0-1-0-1-0-0-1
The Dodgers pounded out 13 singles and 2 doubles and were able to score late in beating the Twins 5-3. J.Cruz went 3 for 5 with 3 singles and JD Drew went 3 for 5 with 2 singles and a double. The Twins managed only 5 hits. D.Lowe went 7 strong innings for the win. Liriano struck out 4 but walked 5 in only 4+ innings of work.
WP: D.Lowe
LP: W.Eyre
Hold: J.Broxton Save: T.Saito
HR: M.Cuddyer
Dodger Team OPS: 0.878
.Twins Team OPS: 0.585
Twins..: 3-5-0
Dodgers: 1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-2
Twins..: 0-0-0-1-0-1-0-0-1
The Dodgers pounded out 13 singles and 2 doubles and were able to score late in beating the Twins 5-3. J.Cruz went 3 for 5 with 3 singles and JD Drew went 3 for 5 with 2 singles and a double. The Twins managed only 5 hits. D.Lowe went 7 strong innings for the win. Liriano struck out 4 but walked 5 in only 4+ innings of work.
WP: D.Lowe
LP: W.Eyre
Hold: J.Broxton Save: T.Saito
HR: M.Cuddyer
Dodger Team OPS: 0.878
.Twins Team OPS: 0.585
Monday, June 26, 2006
Simulated Game... 6/26... Dodgers vs Twins
Dodgers: 10-16-0
Twins..: 0-3-0
Dodgers: 0-0-1-4-1-0-0-3-1
Twins..: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Chad Billingsley scattered three hits over 7 innings and the Dodgers offense lit up Carlos Silva. Catcher R.Martin went 3 for 5 with a home run and 4 RBIs. C.Izturis chipped in with 3 singles and 2 RBIs.
WP: Chad Billingsley
LP: Carlos Silva
HR: R.Martin. Dodger Team OPS: 0.925 Twins Team OPS: 0.267
Twins..: 0-3-0
Dodgers: 0-0-1-4-1-0-0-3-1
Twins..: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Chad Billingsley scattered three hits over 7 innings and the Dodgers offense lit up Carlos Silva. Catcher R.Martin went 3 for 5 with a home run and 4 RBIs. C.Izturis chipped in with 3 singles and 2 RBIs.
WP: Chad Billingsley
LP: Carlos Silva
HR: R.Martin. Dodger Team OPS: 0.925 Twins Team OPS: 0.267
Friday, June 23, 2006
Simulated Game: 6/23... Pirates vs Dodgers
Pirates: 6-8-0
Dodgers: 4-9-0
Pirates: 0-1-0-1-0-4-0-0-0
Dodgers: 2-0-0-0-0-2-0-0-0
The Dodgers got out to an early 2-0 lead on RBI singles by Lofton and Garciappara. The Pirates clawed their way back and evened the score on a solo HR by Jason Bay. The big blow came in the top of the 6th when Tomko (left in to pitch) surrendered a 3 run HR to Jose Castillo. The Dodgers rallied for two runs in the bottom of the inning but the rally was cut short when Furcal was thrown out trying to steal. Oliver Perez pitched 5 innings and picked up the win. Mike Gonzalez got the save.
WP: Oliver Perez
LP: Brett Tomko
SV: Mike Gonzalez
HR: Garciappara, Bay, Castillo
Dodgers: 4-9-0
Pirates: 0-1-0-1-0-4-0-0-0
Dodgers: 2-0-0-0-0-2-0-0-0
The Dodgers got out to an early 2-0 lead on RBI singles by Lofton and Garciappara. The Pirates clawed their way back and evened the score on a solo HR by Jason Bay. The big blow came in the top of the 6th when Tomko (left in to pitch) surrendered a 3 run HR to Jose Castillo. The Dodgers rallied for two runs in the bottom of the inning but the rally was cut short when Furcal was thrown out trying to steal. Oliver Perez pitched 5 innings and picked up the win. Mike Gonzalez got the save.
WP: Oliver Perez
LP: Brett Tomko
SV: Mike Gonzalez
HR: Garciappara, Bay, Castillo
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