Simulation Madness

2007 Pre-Season Simulation Championship Tournament
each round is best 4 out of 7 games.
1R	2R	QF	SF	Finals	Champion
(16) WAS - 2
	(1) STL - 4
(1) STL - 4
		(1) STL - 3
(9) MIL - 4
	(9) MIL - 1
(8) HOU - 1
			(4) CHN - 4
(13) SF - 0
	(4) CHN - 4
(4) CHN - 4
		(4) CHN - 4
(12) FLA - 4
	(12) FLA - 3
(5) PHI - 2
				(4) CHN - 2
(14) PIT - 4
	(14) PIT - 3
(3) SD - 3
		(11) ATL - 3
(11) ATL - 4
	(11) ATL - 4
(6) ARI - 0
			(2) NYM - 2
(10) CIN - 1
	(7) LAD - 2
(7) LAD - 4
		(2) NYM - 4
(15) COL - 3
	(2) NYM - 4
(2) NYM - 4
					Boston
BYE
	(1) DET - 1
(1) DET
		(9) CLE - 3
(9) CLE - 4
	(9) CLE - 4
(8) LAA - 1
			(4) MIN - 3
(12) BAL - 3
	(5) TOR - 2
(5) TOR - 4
		(4) MIN - 4
(13) TB - 2
	(4) MIN - 3
(4) MIN - 4
				(3) BOS - 4
(11) SEA - 0
	(6) OAK - 3
(6) OAK - 4
		(3) BOS - 4
(14) KC - 3
	(3) BOS - 4
(3) BOS - 4
			(3) BOS - 4
(10) TEX- 2
	(7) CWS - 1
(7) CWS - 4
		(2) NYY - 2
BYE
	(2) NYY - 4
(2) NYY

2007 NL West Overview

All the data is in from my NL West head to head simulations. Each team was pitted against each other, with each pitcher facing each pitcher in a 2500 game simulation. The simulation was not measuring Pitcher A vs Pitcher B, it was measuring Pitcher A + Offese A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B. My findings are not meant as gospel, they are only meant to provide another data source for predicting how the NL West will finish.

Summary:

San Diego Padres: The Padres dominated the simulations with a rotation that went four deep (Peavy, Young, Maddux and Hensley). Only Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson were able to breakthrough against the foursome. The Padres success came from their pitching, both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The offense was adequate enough for the NL West. The Padres are the favorite to win the NL West.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The youth has thawed out. The Diamondbacks are ready to throw their young guns to the fire. The offense is littered with talent and inexperience. Past his prime, outfielder Luis Gonzalez is pitching his tent at Chavez Ravine. The youth is talented and should be able to hold it's own in the NL West. The acquisition of Randy Johnson and Doug Davis solidify a rotation that was being carried by Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The Diamondbacks biggest concern has to be their depth, and with Johnson's injury history alot of the team's success will hinge on his health. Webb and Peavy will get most of the aclilades, but a healthy Johnson could prove to be just as good. The Diamondbacks are predicted for a 2nd place tie.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Youth is also on the Dodgers menu, but the regular chef is at home trimming his mustache. Therefore the Dodgers have served up a five course meal of Juan Pierre, an over-ripe Luis Gonzalez, a tender slab of Randy Wolf, two scoops of Nomar with a cherry on top. The Dodgers will benefit from their depth, but will also suffer from the more talented youth that will be blocked for atleast another year (Loney, Kemp and LaRoche). Guo should be in the starting rotation and Billingsley should eventually find his way into the rotation too. The Dodger offense will struggle to score runs but luckily for them the rotation is solid for the most part and the bullpen should have atleast three very good arms. The Dodgers depth should help put the Dodgers on equal footing as the Diamondbacks in the final standings.

San Francisco Giants: Starting pitching should be a wash from last year with the departure of Schmidt and the addition of Zito and Sanchez to the starting rotation. The bullpen was awful last year, and in good news, should regress back towards the mean this year (that is of course if they trade Benitez). The Giants do have some good young arms in their system, wake me up when Tim Lincecum gets called up. A good impression is not what you get from the Giants lineup. When Bonds is healthy the offense is average but when he's not... the Giants better hope for rain. Any finish above fourth place will be a surprise. Last place is more likely than 2nd place.

Colorado Rockies: Fresh new faces at both the top and bottom of the order. This years Rockies are not your grandmothers Rockies. Taveras and Kaz Matsui attempt to match the top of the Dodgers order slap single for slap single. The Rockies offense won't strike fear into many teams and the pitching staff will strike fear into those sitting in the left field bleachers. The Rockies jettisonned one of their best starting pitchers in Jeff Francis to the Houston Astros, in a deal that will have short term woes but long term gains (Hirsh). The Rockies shouldn't be much of a factor in the NL West in 2007. They should have solid ownership of the NL West cellar for most of the season. Well, maybe they are your grandmothers Rockies afterall.

ZIPS Simulation: Giants vs Rockies

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. This simulation is a measure of Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B, not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Giants vs Rockies
Pitcher	Cook	Francis	Fogg	Kim	Lopez
Cain	.605	.593	.663	.627	.658
Zito	.577	.597	.646	.636	.662
Lowry	.568	.578	.631	.586	.633
Morris	.561	.556	.588	.573	.611
Sanchez	.544	.566	.638	.583	.621

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Giants	0	3	6	3	7	5	1	0
Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ZIPS Simulation: Diamondbacks vs Rockies

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. This simulation is a measure of Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B, not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies
Pitcher	Cook	Francis	Fogg	Kim	Lopez
Webb	.626	.663	.701	.656	.709
Johnson	.624	.653	.675	.651	.712
Hernandez	.582	.553	.659	.585	.637
Davis	.613	.646	.687	.658	.693
Ed.Gonzalez	.499	.572	.583	.568	.583

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Diamondbacks	5	7	3	2	4	3	0	0
Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. These simulations are meant to measure Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B. Not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Padres vs Dodgers
Pitcher	Schmidt	Lowe	Penny	Wolf	Billingsley	Guo
Peavy	.550	.536	.563	.592	.607	.554
Young	.519	.502	.535	.578	.572	.541
Maddux	.524	.509	.540	.573	.569	.526
Hensley	.518	.528	.518	.548	.548	.527
Wells	.487	.473	.476	.524	.528	.490

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Padres	0	0	0	1	2	5	11	7
Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Diamondbacks

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. The sim is not measuring Pitcher A vs Pitcher B, it is measuring (Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A) vs (Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B).
Padres vs Diamondbacks
Pitcher	Webb	Johnson	Hernandez	Davis	Ed.Gonzalez
Peavy	.531	.535	.620	.572	.606
Young	.490	.465	.592	.524	.566
Maddux	.506	.502	.591	.546	.581
Hensley	.508	.484	.580	.535	.584
Wells	.435	.445	.538	.512	.547

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Padres	0	0	0	2	5	2	6	5
Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2

ZIPS Simulation: Giants vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Think of this as Pitcher A + Offense A vs Pitcher B + Offense B, not Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Dodgers vs Giants
Pitcher	Cain	Zito	Lowry	Morris	Sanchez
Schmidt	.560	.565	.568	.581	.587
Lowe	.570	.583	.564	.563	.593
Penny	.560	.539	.574	.575	.582
Wolf	.532	.527	.525	.529	.560
Billingsley	.512	.527	.524	.527	.549
Guo	.534	.547	.539	.562	.586

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Dodgers	0	0	0	0	6	11	10	3
Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ZIPS Simulation: Diamondbacks vs Giants

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column.
Diamondbacks vs Giants
Pitcher	Cain	Zito	Lowry	Morris	Sanchez
Webb	.603	.605	.597	.621	.626
Johnson	.597	.598	.624	.636	.632
Hernandez	.530	.531	.543	.529	.568
Davis	.560	.540	.570	.563	.595
Ed.Gonzalez	.542	.520	.520	.518	.585

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Diamondbacks	0	0	3	4	5	4	6	3
Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Rockies

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road.
Padres vs Rockies
Pitcher	Cook	Francis	Fogg	Kim	Lopez
Peavy	.660	.651	.728	.676	.711
Young	.617	.631	.703	.651	.719
Maddux	.591	.593	.650	.584	.659
Hensley	.632	.646	.697	.678	.715
Wells	.515	.516	.618	.536	.608

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Padres	8	4	4	3	3	0	1	2
Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ZIPS Simulation: DBacks vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
Pitcher	Schmidt	Lowe	Penny	Wolf	Billingsley	Guo
Webb	.551	.517	.540	.563	.563	.536
Johnson	.552	.549	.534	.580	.556	.537
Hernandez	.450	.447	.466	.522	.470	.445
Davis	.487	.495	.479	.549	.534	.486
Gonzalez	.444	.462	.455	.484	.489	.440

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	1	5	7	2
Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	6

ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Giants

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column.
Padres vs Giants
Pitcher	Cain	Zito	Lowry	Morris	Sanchez
Peavy	.633	.634	.644	.650	.675
Young	.613	.614	.614	.616	.621
Maddux	.592	.595	.597	.606	.624
Hensley	.580	.598	.587	.591	.622
Wells	.549	.550	.556	.571	.593

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Padres	0	1	4	8	8	2	2	0
Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ZIPS Simulation: Rockies vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column.
Rockies vs Dodgers
Pitcher	Cook	Francis	Fogg	Kim	Lopez
Schmidt	.645	.652	.687	.682	.697
Lowe	.593	.613	.639	.616	.648
Penny	.614	.621	.660	.614	.654
Wolf	.569	.593	.617	.604	.629
Billingsley	.602	.604	.661	.610	.665
Guo	.622	.637	.679	.668	.692

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dodgers	5	6	5	11	2	1	0	0

Current project

I am currently using my baseball simulator program to project win expectancy for every NL West starting pitching matchup using ZIPS for player projections and RotoTimes for most likely lineups, starting rotations and bullpens. Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times. Each team plays half of it's games at home and half of it's games on the road. I will be posting the results on a team vs team basis. I will begin posting results the last week of January. vr, Xeifrank

World Series Game 5: Detroit vs St Louis

Game 5: Justin Verlander vs Jeff Weaver
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
Detroit	3.503	45.2%	.4863
St Louis	3.6	55.8%	.5137
Slight Advantage: Cardinals

World Series Game 4: Detroit vs St Louis

Game 4: Jeremy Bonderman vs Jeff Suppan
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
Detroit	3.468	46.5%	.5045
St Louis	3.437	53.5%	.4955
Slight Advantage: Tigers (Toss Up)

World Series Game 3: Detroit vs St Louis

Game 3: Nate Robertson vs Chris Carpenter
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
Detroit	3.01	37.8%	.3899
St Louis	3.77	62.6%	.6101
Advantage: Cardinals

World Series Game 2: St Louis vs Detroit

Game 2: Jeff Weaver vs Kenny Rogers
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
St Louis	5.188	62.6%	.6523
Detroit	3.788	37.4%	.3477
Big Advantage: Cardinals

World Series Game 1: St Louis vs Detroit

Game 1: Anthony Reyes vs Justin Verlander
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
St Louis	4.622	52.8%	.5568
Detroit	4.124	47.2%	.4432
Advantage: Cardinals

NLCS Game 7: St Louis vs New York

Game 7: Jeff Suppan vs Oliver Perez
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
St Louis	5.27	51.1%	.556
New York	4.71	48.9%	.444
Advantage: Cardinals

NLCS Game 6: Carpenter vs Maine

Game 6: Carpenter vs Maine
Team	Average Runs	% Games won	Pyth.
St Louis	4.40	49.2%	.529
New York	4.16	50.8%	.471
Slight Advantage: Cardinals