The Giants might be the World Series Champions, but just how good are they? Are they good enough to be considered a strong NL West favorite? Are they better than the 2011 Dodgers on paper? Well, to shed some light on this I ran some head to head simulations between the 2011 Giants and Dodgers. Each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50).
| Giants Starting Lineup | Dodgers Starting Lineup | ||||||||
| Giants vs LHP | Giants vs RHP | Dodgers vs LHP | Dodgers vs RHP | ||||||
| Order | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | |
| 1 | CF | A.Torres | CF | A.Torres | SS | R.Furcal | SS | R.Furcal | |
| 2 | 2B | F.Sanchez | 2B | F.Sanchez | CF | M.Kemp | CF | M.Kemp | |
| 3 | 1B | A.Huff | 1B | A.Huff | RF | A.Ethier | RF | A.Ethier | |
| 4 | C | B.Posey | C | B.Posey | 3B | C.Blake | 1B | J.Loney | |
| 5 | RF | C.Ross | RF | C.Ross | 2B | J.Uribe | 3B | C.Blake | |
| 6 | LF | P.Burrell | LF | P.Burrell | LF | M.Thames | 2B | J.Uribe | |
| 7 | SS | M.Tejada | SS | M.Tejada | 1B | J.Loney | LF | J.Gibbons | |
| 8 | 3B | P.Sandoval | 3B | P.Sandoval | C | R.Barajas | C | R.Barajas | |
| Giants Rotation | Dodgers Rotation | ||
| #1 | Tim Lincecum | #1 | Clayton Kershaw |
| #2 | Matt Cain | #2 | Chad Billingsley |
| #3 | Jonathan Sanchez | #3 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| #4 | Madison Bumgarner | #4 | Ted Lilly |
| #5 | Barry Zito | #5 | Jon Garland |
| Simulation Results | |||
| Away Starter | Home Starter | Favorite | Win Prob |
| Tim Lincecum | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 53.97% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 57.43% |
| Tim Lincecum | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 55.25% |
| Chad Billingsley | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 56.85% |
| Tim Lincecum | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 52.23% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 58.72% |
| Tim Lincecum | Ted Lilly | Giants | 55.42% |
| Ted Lilly | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 65.50% |
| Tim Lincecum | Jon Garland | Giants | 54.81% |
| Jon Garland | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 65.43% |
| Matt Cain | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 57.01% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Matt Cain | Giants | 54.36% |
| Matt Cain | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 57.60% |
| Chad Billingsley | Matt Cain | Giants | 53.51% |
| Matt Cain | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 54.77% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Matt Cain | Giants | 55.41% |
| Matt Cain | Ted Lilly | Giants | 52.71% |
| Ted Lilly | Matt Cain | Giants | 62.31% |
| Matt Cain | Jon Garland | Giants | 52.24% |
| Jon Garland | Matt Cain | Giants | 62.55% |
| Jonathan Sanchez | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 57.95% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Jonathan Sanchez | Giants | 53.27% |
| Jonathan Sanchez | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 58.50% |
| Chad Billingsley | Jonathan Sanchez | Giants | 54.19% |
| Jonathan Sanchez | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 55.71% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Jonathan Sanchez | Giants | 55.34% |
| Jonathan Sanchez | Ted Lilly | Giants | 51.84% |
| Ted Lilly | Jonathan Sanchez | Giants | 62.07% |
| Jonathan Sanchez | Jon Garland | Giants | 51.19% |
| Jon Garland | Jonathan Sanchez | Giants | 62.25% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 57.38% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 53.95% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 58.24% |
| Chad Billingsley | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 52.94% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 55.42% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 54.80% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Ted Lilly | Giants | 52.20% |
| Ted Lilly | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 62.11% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Jon Garland | Giants | 52.16% |
| Jon Garland | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 62.05% |
| Barry Zito | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 59.68% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Barry Zito | Giants | 51.33% |
| Barry Zito | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 60.49% |
| Chad Billingsley | Barry Zito | Giants | 50.35% |
| Barry Zito | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 57.85% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Barry Zito | Giants | 52.69% |
| Barry Zito | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 50.75% |
| Ted Lilly | Barry Zito | Giants | 59.48% |
| Barry Zito | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 50.83% |
| Jon Garland | Barry Zito | Giants | 59.79% |
When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Giants have an average win probability of 52.15%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Giants would win 84.49 games and the Dodgers would win 77.51. Not a big difference but the simulator is showing that the Giants are a better team than the Dodgers, nothing that a little luck and favorable injuries couldn't overcome.
NBA Odds
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