NL West Title Well Within Reach... Just Not For Dodgers

September 1st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	R.Oswalt vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	51.22%	52.94%	PHI 5-1

Current ROI: 2.79%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22
1	Padres	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%
2	Giants	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%
3	Rockies	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%
4	Dodgers	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%

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Masterful Kuroda Quells Phillies Bats

August 31st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	K.Kendrick vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	51.69%	47.03%	PHI 8-4

Current ROI: 2.29%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21
1	Padres	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%
2	Giants	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%
3	Rockies	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%
4	Dodgers	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%

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Manny Leaves, Dodgers Get A Halladay

August 30th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	R.Halladay vs H.Kuroda	Phillies	57.63%	53.39%	LAN 3-0
Pirates	Cubs	P.Maholm vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	61.83%	68.06%	CHN 14-2
Padres	DBacks	W.LeBlanc vs J.Saunders	Padres	56.52%	48.72%	ARI 7-2
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Cecil vs W.Davis	Rays	58.16%	47.90%	TB 6-2

Current ROI: 2.43%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20
1	Padres	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%
2	Giants	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%
3	Rockies	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%
4	Dodgers	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%

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Dodgers Approaching Their 2010 Waterloo

August 29th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	T.Lilly vs J.Hammel	Rockies	53.05%	62.42%	COL 10-5
Astros	Mets	B.Norris vs R.Dickey	Mets	63.24%	57.45%	NYN 5-1
Cardinals	Nationals	A.Wainwright vs J.Lannan	Cardinals	65.28%	56.41%	WAS 4-2
Red Sox	Rays	J.Lackey vs J.Shields	Rays	58.68%	49.89%	TB 5-3
Yankees	White Sox	I.Nova vs G.Floyd	White Sox	55.16%	60.51%	NYA 2-1

Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19
1	Padres	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%
2	Giants	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%
3	Rockies	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%
4	Dodgers	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%

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Saturday Night Fever!

August 28th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Chacin	Rockies	54.95%	57.40%	COL 5-3
Cardinals	Nationsls	K.Lohse vs L.Hernandez	Cardinals	50.98%	40.81%	WAS 14-5
Cubs	Reds	R.Wells vs B.Arroyo	Reds	62.29%	50.52%	CHN 3-2
Marlins	Braves	R.Nolasco vs T.Hudson	Braves	63.50%	56.50%	ATL 12-3
A's	Rangers	D.Braden vs R.Harden	Rangers	58.16%	47.20%	OAK 5-0
Twins	Mariners	N.Blackburn vs D.Fister	Twins	51.22%	44.04%	MIN 1-0

Current ROI: 1.69%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18
1	Padres	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%
2	Giants	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%
3	Dodgers	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%
4	Rockies	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Stayin' Alive

August 27th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	59.51%	55.69%	LAN 6-2

Current ROI: 2.40%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17
1	Padres	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%
2	Giants	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%
3	Rockies	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%
4	Dodgers	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Three Headed Save

August 26th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Brewers	C.Monasterios vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	60.63%	68.82%	LAN 7-1

Current ROI: 2.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16
1	Padres	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%
2	Giants	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%
3	Rockies	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%
4	Dodgers	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Little By Lilly, Dodgers Discover A New Ace

August 25th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Brewers	H.Kuroda vs R.Wolf	Brewers	52.61%	47.45%	LAN 5-4

Current ROI: 1.55%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15
1	Padres	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%
2	Giants	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%
3	Rockies	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%
4	Dodgers	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Waive Good-Bye To Manny?

August 24th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Brewers	T.Lilly vs D.Bush	Dodgers	56.14%	49.95%	LAN 5-3

Current ROI: 1.37%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14
1	Padres	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%
2	Giants	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%
3	Rockies	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%
4	Dodgers	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Off Day, Off Season

August 23rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Cubs	Nationals	C.Coleman vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	63.24%	65.21%	CHN 10
Cardinals	Pirates	K.Lohse vs R.Ohlendorf	Cardinals	54.55%	50.82%	STL 12
Astros	Phillies	B.Myers vs J.Blanton	Phillies	62.12%	62.21%	HOU 5
Braves	Rockies	T.Hudson vs J.Hammel	Braves	53.92%	40.06%	COL 9
Reds	Giants	E.Volquez vs M.Cain	Giants	56.71%	64.80%	SF 13

Current ROI: 1.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13
1	Padres	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%
2	Giants	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%
3	Rockies	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%
4	Dodgers	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Dodgers Hit Manny Homeruns

August 22nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Dodgers	B.Arroyo vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	57.45%	64.89%	CIN 5-2

Current ROI: 2.19%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12
1	Padres	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%
2	Giants	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%
3	Dodgers	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%
4	Rockies	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Homer Does Dodgers In

August 21st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Dodgers	J.Cueto vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	54.13%	60.06%	LAN 8-5

Current ROI: 1.98%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11
1	Padres	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%
2	Giants	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%
3	Rockies	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%
4	Dodgers	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Ace Of Lilly

August 20th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Dodgers	H.Bailey vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	53.27%	48.68%	CIN 3-1

Current ROI: 1.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10
1	Padres	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%
2	Giants	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%
3	Rockies	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%
4	Dodgers	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Wild Pitches Dooms Dodgers

August 19th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.de la Rosa vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	58.33%	51.41%	LAN 2-0

Current ROI: 1.38%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9
1	Padres	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%
2	Giants	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%
3	Rockies	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%
4	Dodgers	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Thank God For The Rockies

August 18th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Hammel vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	56.90%	53.40%	COL 3-2

Current ROI: 1.49%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8
1	Padres	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%
2	Giants	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%
3	Dodgers	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%
4	Rockies	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Bullpen Warfare

August 17th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Chacin vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	62.26%	59.95%	LAN 6-0
Marlins	Pirates	R.Nolasco vs Z.Duke	Marlins	57.45%	56.21%	FLA 6-0
Giants	Phillies	B.Zito vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	59.68%	59.89%	PHI 9-3
Nationals	Braves	S.Olsen vs M.Minor	Braves	63.24%	52.10%	ATL 10-2
Mets	Astros	J.Santana vs N.Figueroa	Mets	61.39%	59.86%	HOU 4-3
Padres	Cubs	J.Garland vs R.Wells	Padres	52.61%	42.81%	SD 1-0
Brewers	Cardinals	D.Bush vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	64.29%	65.18%	MIL 3-2
Reds	DBacks	B.Arroyo vs D.Hudson	Reds	52.15%	45.70%	CIN 6-2
Mariners	Orioles	L.French vs K.Millwood	Orioles	54.95%	53.35%	SEA 4-0
Tigers	Yankees	J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	63.24%	61.31%	NYA 6-2
Rangers	Rays	T.Hunter vs M.Garza	Rays	58.68%	58.30%	TB 10-1
Angels	Red Sox	J.Weaver vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	56.52%	52.14%	BOS 6-0
White Sox	Twins	J.Danks vs S.Baker	Twins	53.70%	51.56%	MIN 7-6
Indians	Royals	J.Gomez vs Z.Greinke	Royals	63.24%	66.80%	KC 2-1
Blue Jays	A's	B.Morrow vs D.Braden	A's	52.15%	47.83%	TOR 6-2

Current ROI: 1.92%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7
1	Padres	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%
2	Giants	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%
3	Dodgers	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%
4	Rockies	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%

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Win Some, Lose More

August 16th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Braves	C.Billingsley vs T.Hanson	Braves	59.18%	56.29%	ATL 4-3

Current ROI: 2.25%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6
1	Padres	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%
2	Giants	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%
3	Dodgers	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%
4	Rockies	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%

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Lowe And Behold, Dodgers Win

August 15th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Braves	V.Padilla vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	56.71%	53.77%	ATL 13-1

Current ROI: 2.21%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5
1	Padres	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%
2	Giants	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%
3	Dodgers	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%
4	Rockies	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%

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Dodgers Offense Grounded

August 14th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Braves	T.Lilly vs D.Lowe	Braves	55.95%	54.01%	LAN 2-1

Current ROI: 2.73%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4
1	Padres	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%
2	Giants	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%
3	Dodgers	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%
4	Rockies	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%

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Blown Save, Set & Match

August 13th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Braves	H.Kuroda vs T.Hudson	Braves	60.78%	50.35%	ATL 1-0

Current ROI: 2.72%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3
1	Padres	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%
2	Giants	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%
3	Dodgers	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%
4	Rockies	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%

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Torre Loses Lucky Rabbits Foot

August 12th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	C.Kershaw vs J.Blanton	Dodgers	54.95%	50.95%	PHI 10-9

Current ROI: 3.24%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2
1	Padres	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%
2	Giants	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%
3	Dodgers	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%
4	Rockies	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%

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Gibbons Helps Dodgers Gain Ground

August 11th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	C.Billingsley vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	56.90%	57.77%	PHI 2-0

Current ROI: 3.24%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1
1	Padres	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%
2	Giants	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%
3	Dodgers	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%
4	Rockies	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%

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Padilla Shoots To Keep Dodgers Hopes Alive

August 10th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	V.Padilla vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	50.74%	50.73%	LAN 15-9

Current ROI: 3.55%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31
1	Padres	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%
2	Giants	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%
3	Dodgers	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%
4	Rockies	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%

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NL West Playoff Picture

Using my baseball simulator to play out the rest of the 2010 schedules for the Padres, Giants, Dodgers and Rockies, here are the odds of each team winning the NL West title.

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/9	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30
1	Padres	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%
2	Giants	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%
3	Dodgers	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%
4	Rockies	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%

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Loney Is Money

August 8th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Nationals	Dodgers	J.Marquis vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	64.79%	54.63%	LAN 8-3
Cardinals	Marlins	J.Suppan vs S.West	Cardinals	51.92%	49.51%	TBD
Reds	Cubs	T.Wood vs T.Diamond	Reds	57.08%	53.01%	CIN 11-4
Astros	Brewers	W.Wright vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	67.53%	73.88%	MIL 11-6
Mets	Phillies	R.Dickey vs R.Halladay	Phillies	67.85%	59.30%	PHI 6-5
Giants	Braves	J.Sandhez vs D.Lowe	Braves	56.52%	53.90%	ATL 6-3
Royals	Mariners	K.Davies vs J.Vargas	Mariners	57.63%	60.79%	SEA 3-2
Angels	Tigers	T.Bell vs R.Porcello	Tigers	57.45%	55.53%	DET 9-4
Twins	Indians	B.Duensing vs D.Huff	Twins	60.32%	50.46%	MIN 5-4
Rangers	A's	C.Lewis vs T.Cahill	A's	54.13%	49.95%	OAK 3-2
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	50.50%	52.38%	COL 8-4
Padres	DBacks	M.Latos vs J.Saunders	Padres	59.18%	56.68%	SD 10-1
Rays	Blue Jays	A.Sonnanstine vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	55.75%	65.42%	TOR 1-0

Current ROI: 3.78%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/8	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29
1	Padres	45.95%	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%
2	Giants	43.97%	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%
3	Dodgers	7.31%	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%
4	Rockies	2.78%	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%

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Dunn In By The Long Ball

August 7th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Nationals	Dodgers	L.Hernandez vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	63.10%	57.66%	LAN 3-2

Current ROI: 4.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/7	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28
1	Padres	47.35%	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%
2	Giants	44.19%	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%
3	Dodgers	5.25%	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%
4	Rockies	3.21%	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%

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Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

August 6th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Nationals	Dodgers	J.Lannan vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	68.55%	68.83%	WAS 6-3

Current ROI: 4.47%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/6	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27
1	Padres	53.32%	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%
2	Giants	37.09%	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%
3	Dodgers	7.00%	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%
4	Rockies	2.59%	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%

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Padilla Completely Shuts Down Padres

August 5th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	K.Correia vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	59.84%	62.84%	SD 5-0

Current ROI: 4.34%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/5	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26
1	Padres	44.39%	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%
2	Giants	42.90%	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%
3	Dodgers	9.48%	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%
4	Rockies	3.22%	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%

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Lilly Brightly Blossoms

August 4th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	W.LeBlanc vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	58.33%	59.06%	LAN 9-0

Current ROI: 3.89%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/4	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25
1	Padres	45.82%	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%
2	Giants	44.33%	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%
3	Dodgers	7.41%	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%
4	Rockies	2.44%	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%

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The Worst Of Times

August 3rd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	51.22%	50.42%	LAN 2-1

Current ROI: 2.94%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/3	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24
1	Padres	51.91%	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%
2	Giants	38.63%	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%
3	Dodgers	6.33%	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%
4	Rockies	3.13%	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%

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That's Nearly All She Wrote

August 2nd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	C.Richard vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	57.08%	57.65%	SD 10-5
Reds	Pirates	T.Wood vs R.Ohlendorf	Reds	61.39%	53.65%	CIN 4-0
Brewers	Cubs	Y.Gallardo vs R.Wells	Brewers	51.22%	49.10%	MIL 18-1
Nationals	DBacks	L.Hernandez vs R.Lopez	DBacks	53.49%	41.44%	WAS 3-1
Mets	Braves	J.Santana vs T.Hudson	Braves	57.98%	52.16%	ATL 4-1
Astros	Cardinals	B.Myers vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	59.84%	63.05%	HOU 9-4
Royals	A's	B.Bannister vs T.Cahill	A's	65.52%	63.75%	OAK 6-0
Twins	Rays	C.Pavano vs M.Hellickson	Rays	52.15%	48.59%	TB 4-2
Blue Jays	Yankees	B.Morrow vs A.Burnett	Yankees	63.64%	57.88%	TOR 8-6
Indians	Red Sox	F.Carmona vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	65.16%	61.76%	CLE 6-5

Current ROI: 2.81%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/2	8/1	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23
1	Padres	46.30%	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%
2	Giants	41.17%	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%
3	Dodgers	8.98%	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%
4	Rockies	3.55%	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%

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