Trader Ned's

September 1st, Meaningful NL West Games

Dodgers acquire Jim Thome and Jon Garland.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	Y.Petit vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	65.64%	9.0	61.61%	9.17	LAN 4-3
Giants	Phillies	J.Sanchez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	64.41%	8.3	60.59%	9.03	PHI 1-0
Mets	Rockies	M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	66.78%	9.5	65.41%	8.66	COL 8-3

Vegas Odds

Baby Got Diamond Back

August 31st, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	D.Davis vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	63.24%	7.9	63.93%	8.48	ARI 5-3

Vegas Odds

Living On The Air In Cincinnati

August 30th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Kershaw vs B.Arroyo	Dodgers	62.12%	8.1	62.28%	9.05	LAN 3-2
Rockies	Giants	J.Hammel vs M.Cain	Giants	55.56%	7.6	48.26%	8.27	SF 9-5

Vegas Odds

Knuckle Sandwich

August 29th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Haeger vs M.Maloney	Dodgers	59.68%	9.0	55.83%	9.90	11-4
Rockies	Giants	J.Marquis vs B.Zito	Rockies	53.92%	7.7	48.99%	8.53	5-3

Vegas Odds

Big Favorites In Cincy

August 28th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey	Dodgers	65.64%	8.8	65.52%	9.15	CIN 4-2
Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	Giants	56.52%	6.5	55.28%	6.86	SF 2-0

Vegas Odds

Back In The Saddle Again

August 27th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	V.Padilla vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	57.98%	10.1	57.70%	10.00	LAN 3-2
DBacks	Giants	Y.Petit vs J.Martinez	Giants	56.33%	8.5	57.27%	9.01	ARI 11-0

Vegas Odds

It's Not The End of the World As We Know It

and I feel fine! Yes, the Dodgers lost a tough extra inning game last night in the opening salvo vs the Roxies. The Roxies have cut the Dodgers lead in the NL West, which happens to be the smallest lead of any in the 6 MLB divisions, to just two games. All is not lost though, because there exists this mulligan on a season called the wild-card.

Yes, the Dodgers lead is down to two games, but their lead in the wild-card is six games, and it's over the Giants, not a team like the "red hot" Roxies. As I pointed out on a post over at Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers still have a great chance of making the playoffs. For the most part the playoffs are a crapshoot. All four teams should be pretty even for the most part, with home field advantage being the biggest seperator between the teams.

According to the site Sports Club Stats which is on the side-bar. The Dodgers break even point (50% chance of making the playoffs) is somewhere between 89 and 90 wins. A 16-20 record the rest of the way out would give the Dodgers a 90 win season.

Here are the breakdowns. Total wins, probability of making the playoffs.

< 85 ... 0%
85 ... 1%
86 ... 3%
87 ... 11%
88 ... 24%
89 ... 45%
90 ... 66%
91 ... 83%
92 ... 94% (.500 ball the rest of the season)
93 ... 98%
>93 ... 100%

Regressing To The Mean

August 26th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	R.Wolf vs J.Fogg	Dodgers	56.52%	10.5	51.10%	10.25	LAN 6-1
DBacks	Giants	D.Davis vs J.Sanchez	Giants	57.98%	7.5	60.60%	7.85	TBD

Vegas Odds

Tuesday is Toss-up Day

August 25th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs J.Hammel	Dodgers	51.69%	9.4	50.04%	9.19	COL 5-4
DBacks	Giants	D.Haren vs M.Cain	Giants	57.98%	6.6	51.01%	7.32	SF 5-4

Vegas Odds

Denver Bound

August 24th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Rockies	B.Zito vs J.Marquis	Rockies	62.12%	9.4	59.83%	9.98	COL 6-4

Vegas Odds

Breathing Room

August 23rd, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	R.Dempster vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	62.26%	7.52	61.60%	8.13	CHN 3-1
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs U.Jimenez	Giants	51.22%	8.0	43.70%	7.52	COL 4-2

Vegas Odds

Hey! Grrrr

August 22st, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	T.Lilly vs C.Haeger	Cubs	50.98%	8.7	52.50%	8.59	LAN 2-0
Giants	Rockies	J.Martinez vs J.De la Rosa	Rockies	63.10%	9.4	67.74%	9.99	COL 14-11

Vegas Odds

Randy^2

August 21st, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	R.Wells vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	59.02%	8.0	56.26%	8.43	LAN 2-1
Giants	Rockies	J.Sanchez vs A.Cook	Rockies	61.54%	9.2	56.41%	9.43	SF 6-3

Vegas Odds

Under Pressure

August 20th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Weaver	Dodgers	55.75%	8.7	57.22%	9.15	LAN 7-2
Rockies	Nationals	J.Hammel vs G.Mock	Rockies	56.71%	9.7	55.66%	9.22	COL 4-1
Giants	Reds	M.Cain vs A.Harang	Giants	55.36%	7.4	50.70%	8.24	CIN 2-1

Vegas Odds

Pitchers Duel Azul

August 19th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	55.16%	7.3	59.17%	7.63	STL 3-2
Giants	Reds	B.Zito vs B.Arroyo	Reds	51.46%	8.5	47.11%	9.04	SF 1-0
Rockies	Nationals	J.Marquis vs J.Balester	Rockies	60.00%	9.2	53.64%	9.49	COL 5-4

Vegas Odds

Ham Strung

August 18th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	M.Boggs vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	62.41%	8.2	64.86%	8.81	LAN 7-3
Giants	Reds	T.Lincecum vs H.Bailey	Giants	68.35%	7.6	62.34%	8.14	SF 8-5
Rockies	Nationals	U.Jimenez vs C.Statten	Rockies	60.94%	8.7	52.68%	9.2	COL 4-3

Vegas Odds

Blue Knuckle Time

August 17th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	C.Carpenter vs C.Haeger	Cardinals	60.32%	7.7	58.20%	8.43	STL 3-2
Giants	Mets	J.Martinez vs L.Hernandez	Giants	51.22%	9.1	54.30%	9.22	SF 10-1

Vegas Odds

Hungry Like The Randy Wolf

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, August 14-16

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Kershaw vs D.Haren	DBacks	50.25%	7.6	51.16%	9.15	ARI 4-1
Dodgers	DBacks	H.Kuroda vs D.Davis	Dodgers	52.83%	9.2	54.00%	9.77	ARI 4-3
Dodgers	DBacks	R.Wolf vs Y.Petit	Dodgers	58.51%	9.1	56.07%	10.47	LAN 9-3

Other Games of Interest

NL West, August 16th Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Mets	J.Sanchez vs M.Pelfrey	Giants	50.25%	8.4	45.13%	8.17	NYM 3-2
Rockies	Marlins	A.Cook vs C.Volstad	Marlins	50.00%	8.7	54.23%	10.52	FLA 10-3
Rockies	Marlins	J.de la Rosa vs R.Vandenhurk	Marlins	51.00%	9.3	53.71%	10.02	COL 7-3

NL West, August 15th Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Mets	M.Cain vs J.Santana	Mets	54.75%	7.1	55.50%	8.07	SF 5-4

NL West, August 14th Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Mets	B.Zito vs B.Parnell	Giants	50.98%	8.6	57.08%	9.17	NYN 3-0
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs J.Johnson	Marlins	61.24%	8.3	53.31%	9.05	FLA 6-5

Pirates vs Rockies, August 13th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Pirates	Rockies	P.Maholm vs J.Marquis	Rockies	70.59%	9.7	63.51%	9.80	COL 10-1

Vegas Odds

Weaver For The Sweep?

Dodgers vs Giants, August 12th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	J.Weaver vs T.Lincecum	Giants	64.54%	7.1	72.67%	7.47	SF 3-2

Vegas Odds

Beat The Giants, Part II

Dodgers vs Giants, August 11th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	R.Wolf vs J.Martinez	Dodgers	56.33%	8.5	47.14%	9.65	LAN 9-1

Vegas Odds

Stamp Out The Giants

Dodgers vs Giants, August 10th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	H.Kuroda vs J.Sanchez	Dodgers	52.83%	8.4	54.89%	8.39	LAN 4-2

Vegas Odds

Slip Sliding Away

The Dodgers lead in the NL West is "Slip Sliding Away!".

NL West Standings
Team	W	L	GB	Pecota NL West Champ Chances
Dodgers	67	45	0	78.13%
Rockies	61	50	5.5	16.60%
Giants	61	50	5.5	5.25%
Diamondbacks	50	62	17	0.01%
Padres	47	66	20.5	0.00%

A Brave New Series

Braves vs Dodgers, August 6th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Braves	Dodgers	D.Lowe vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	56.33%	8.3	54.92%	8.95	LAN 5-4
Braves	Dodgers	J.Jurrjens vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	55.36%	7.5	56.98%	8.63	ATL 9-5
Braves	Dodgers	K.Kawakami vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	62.26%	8.2	61.53%	9.08	ATL 2-1
Braves	Dodgers	J.Vazquez vs E.Stults	Braves	55.36%	8.2	53.90%	8.06	ATL 8-2

Vegas Odds

Tuesday... Bloody Tuesday

Brewers vs Dodgers, August 5th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U
Brewers	Dodgers	B.Looper vs J.Schmidt	Dodgers	56.33%	9.5	55.34%	9.44

Actual Score: Brewers 4-1

Vegas Odds

Geared Up To Begin New Winning Streak

Brewers vs Dodgers, August 4th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U
Brewers	Dodgers	H.Kuroda vs Y.Gallardo	Dodgers	54.34%	7.9	52.82%	7.11

Actual Score: Dodgers 17-4

Vegas Odds

In Kemp We Trust!

Brewers vs Dodgers, August 3rd

Source	Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Vegas	Brewers	Dodgers	M.Parra vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	64.97%	8.4
Xeifrank System	Brewers	Dodgers	M.Parra vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	66.59%	8.16

Actual Score: Brewers 6-5

Some Like It Hot

Dodgers vs Braves, August 2nd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Braves	C.Billingsley vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	57.08%	7.7

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

How Lowe Can You Go

Dodgers vs Braves, August 1st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Braves	R.Wolf vs D.Lowe	Braves	55.95	8.5

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds