St Louis Cardinals - Most Optimal 2015 Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 St Louis Cardinals.  I started out with over 10,000 permutations of lineups, a group that was filtered to remove such things as too many left handed hitters hitting back to back or the pitcher not hitting 8th or 9th etc... and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  I also compared the best lineup against the lineup that MLB Depth Charts shows as a likely lineup and also one of the worst lineups to see what kind of spread there is.  The top 50 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequence table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineup.

                                       Top 50 Most Optimal Lineups

Rank	Lineup	Wins/162 Behind
1	Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0
2	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0.014
3	Wong-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Peralta-Adams-Molina-Pitcher	0.015
4	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.032
5	Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong	0.066
6	Wong-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.086
7	Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Wong	0.102
8	Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.120
9	Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong	0.131
10	Wong-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Molina-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher	0.151
11	Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.167
12	Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Peralta-Adams-Molina-Pitcher	0.171
13	Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Wong	0.175
14	Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher	0.184
15	Carpenter-Jay-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.199
16	Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.200
17	Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.209
18	Wong-Jay-Peralta-Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Pitcher	0.243
19	Heyward-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0.247
20	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Jay-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong	0.253
21	Heyward-Wong-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.257
22	Jay-Wong-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Molina-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher	0.266
23	Heyward-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.269
24	Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher	0.269
25	Wong-Jay-Molina-Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher	0.284
26	Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Heyward-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong	0.286
27	Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0.286
28	Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong	0.288
29	Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.289
30	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Jay-Peralta-Pitcher	0.292
31	Jay-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.299
32	Heyward-Wong-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher	0.305
33	Wong-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.310
34	Carpenter-Jay-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong	0.310
35	Peralta-Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.317
36	Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Heyward-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.326
37	Jay-Wong-Molina-Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher	0.327
38	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Jay-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher	0.327
39	Wong-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher	0.343
40	Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher	0.348
41	Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Wong	0.353
42	Wong-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.372
43	Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.382
44	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher	0.388
45	Carpenter-Wong-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0.403
46	Peralta-Heyward-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.433
47	Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Jay-Pitcher-Peralta	0.439
48	Heyward-Peralta-Carpenter-Adams-Holliday-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay	0.469
49	Heyward-Wong-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0.477
50	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay	0.485
..	..	..
MLBDC	Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Peralta-Jay-Wong-Pitcher	1.090
BAD	Adams-Peralta-Jay-Wong-Molina-Carpenter-Holliday-Heyward-Pitcher	3.661

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              Batting Order Frequence Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Heyward	17	16	0	2	15	0	0	0	0
Carpenter	10	10	3	21	6	0	0	0	0
Holliday	0	2	42	2	1	3	0	0	0
Adams	0	4	2	25	12	0	7	0	0
Wong	8	6	0	0	10	7	10	0	9
Peralta	2	1	1	0	2	26	10	7	1
Molina	0	0	2	0	2	14	17	15	0
Jay	13	11	0	0	2	0	6	0	18
Pitcher	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28	22

Synergy:
10 most common back to back occurrences in lineup.

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2
1	32	Molina	Pitcher
2	28	Holliday	Adams
3	26	Pitcher	Jay
4	19	Heyward	Holliday
5	19	Holliday	Carpenter
6	19	Wong	Molina
7	17	Peralta	Pitcher
8	15	Carpenter	Heyward
9	15	Jay	Heyward
10	14	Pitcher	Wong

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10 most common back to back to back occurrences in lineup.

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2	Player 3
1	16	Molina	Pitcher	Jay
2	13	Heyward	Holliday	Adams
3	13	Wong	Molina	Pitcher
4	12	Peralta	Molina	Pitcher
5	12	Pitcher	Jay	Heyward
6	10	Carpenter	Heyward	Holliday
7	10	Holliday	Carpenter	Adams
8	10	Peralta	Wong	Molina
9	10	Peralta	Pitcher	Jay
10t	9	Carpenter	Holliday	Adams
10t	9	Molina	Pitcher	Wong
10t	9	Pitcher	Wong	Jay

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                                         Analysis

Heyward:  Slots well at the top of the lineup as either the leadoff or second hitter.  With others better suited for the 3rd or 4th spot in the lineup, Heyward also slots in well as the 5th hitter but should not hit in the 6th thru 9th slots.

Carpenter: Surpsingly does well at cleanup along with Adams but also does well among the 1-2-5 spots like Heyward.  Carpenter shows a lot of lineup versatility if there is such a thing.

Holliday:  Should hit third.

Adams: The teams best cleanup hitter but can also move down to fifth in the lineup if need be.

Wong: No one great spot for Wong but he probably shows the most "lineup versatility" as anyone on the team  There are 6 lineup slots where Wong appeared at least 6 times.  When it comes to batting order spots, Wong is definitely the Nomad of the team.  Wong even makes 9 appearances hitting 9th, one spot behind the pitcher.

Peralta:  The simulator likes Peralta hitting 6th as he provides some pretty decent back of the lineup power.  He should definitely stay out of the top five spots in the lineup.

Molina:  6-7-8 are the best spots for Molina as only Heyward and Molina have a 14 or higher on their third most frequented lineup spot.

Jay:  Looks like the simulator likes Jay setting the table whether it be as the leadoff hitter or the quasi-leadoff hitter batting 9th.

Pitcher:  With Jay and Wong making appearances in the 9th spot the simulator pretty much calls it a crapshoot at hitting the pitcher 8th or 9th.  The pitcher should bat immediately after Molina does.