2012 MLB Simulations
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Unit Bets |
| ARI | SD | Trevor Cahill vs Eric Stults | ARI | 52.94% | 49.12% | SD, 1.2 |
| BAL | TB | Jake Arrieta vs Matt Moore | TB | 57.17% | 52.84% | BAL, 1.3 |
| MIN | CLE | Scott Diamond vs Justin Masterson | CLE | 57.72% | 53.29% | MIN, 1.3 |
| OAK | KC | Tom Milone vs Vin Mazzaro | KC | 55.06% | 55.56% | --- |
| SEA | CHA | Kevin Millwood vs Chris Sale | CHA | 63.57% | 62.04% | SEA, 0.3 |
| TEX | LAA | Matt Harrison vs Dan Haren | LAA | 52.27% | 52.46% | --- |
| NYA | DET | Phil Hughes vs Justin Verlander | DET | 63.03% | 62.51% | --- |
| BOS | TOR | Daniel Bard vs Drew Hutchison | TOR | 51.10% | 56.10% | TOR, 1.7 |
| STL | NYN | Jake Westbrook vs John Niese | STL | 50.74% | 54.25% | STL, 1.3 |
| ATL | WAS | Tommy Hanson vs Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 57.36% | 66.92% | WAS, 4.1 |
| FLA | PHI | Carlos Zambrano vs Joe Blanton | PHI | 50.62% | 50.66% | --- |
| CIN | HOU | Bronson Arroyo vs Jordan Lyles | CIN | OFF | 54.24% | --- |
| PIT | MIL | James McDonald vs Michael Fiers | MIL | 52.49% | 47.59% | PIT, 1.6 |
| LAN | COL | Nathan Eovaldi vs Alex White | COL | 53.81% | 55.83% | COL, 0.6 |
| CHN | SF | Travis Wood vs Barry Zito | SF | 58.76% | 56.41% | CHN, 0.6 |
Saturday's Results: -0.1 units
Current ROI: 5.38%
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2 comments:
Curious how much YTD vs. pre-season projection you are using to project starting pitcher skill in a given game. I am guessing you are using 100% YTD (xFIP, FIP or SIERA or whatever) at this point of the season?
Not 100% YTD but pretty heavily weighted on 2012 stats, but it goes on a case by case basis depending on innings pitched and there is some regression involved in there too. Can't give away all the secret sauce though. This is the most important thing that Vegas gets wrong.
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