Better Than Expected

... Or not enough respect!?

I have taken all the Vegas odds along with empirical 2011 results to tally up which MLB starting pitchers helped their team garner better than expected results. The methodology was to take the win percentage of the games each starting pitcher pitched in, then comparing that to the expected win percentage of those same games based on the win expectancy provided by Vegas odds. If a team was a 60% Vegas favorite to win a game then that pitcher was credited with 0.6 expected wins and 0.4 expected losses. I weighted the difference between actual and expected wins based off of games started. Below are the results...

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Starts	Wins	Losses	Wins(E)	Losses(E)	Win Perc	Exp Win Perc
1	Ian Kennedy	ARI	35	25	10	17.89	17.11	71.43	51.12
2	Clayton Kershaw	LAN	33	23	10	17.83	15.17	69.7	54.03
3	Jason Marquis	WAS	24	16	8	10.90	13.10	66.67	45.43
4	Justin Verlander	DET	37	27	10	22.11	14.89	72.97	59.76
5	Vance Worley	PHI	21	16	5	11.54	9.46	76.19	54.96
6	Rick Porcello	DET	33	21	12	17.03	15.97	63.64	51.6
7	Zach Greinke	MIL	31	22	9	18.03	12.97	70.97	58.17
8	Aaron Harang	SD	28	17	11	13.23	14.77	60.71	47.25
9	Mark Buehrle	CHA	30	19	11	15.23	14.77	63.33	50.78
10	Luke Hochevar	KC	31	18	13	14.24	16.76	58.06	45.92
11	Dillon Gee	NYN	26	16	10	12.30	13.70	61.54	47.31
12	Matt Harrison	TEX	34	22	12	18.38	15.62	64.71	54.06
13	Bruce Chen	KC	25	15	10	11.39	13.61	60	45.55
14	Randy Wolf	MIL	35	21	14	17.76	17.24	60	50.73
15	Jeff Niemann	TB	24	15	9	11.80	12.20	62.5	49.18
16	Javier Vazquez	FLA	32	18	14	14.85	17.15	56.25	46.42
17	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	23	16	7	12.91	10.09	69.57	56.15
18	Justin Masterson	CLE	33	20	13	16.96	16.04	60.61	51.39
19	Roy Halladay	PHI	34	25	9	21.96	12.04	73.53	64.59
20	James Shields	TB	34	21	13	17.98	16.02	61.76	52.87
21	Jeff Karstens	PIT	28	15	13	12.05	15.95	53.57	43.05
22	Kyle Drabek	TOR	13	9	4	6.16	6.84	69.23	47.41
23	Tommy Milone	WAS	5	5	0	2.25	2.75	100	44.95
24	Max Scherzer	DET	36	22	14	19.27	16.73	61.11	53.53
25	Derek Holland	TEX	35	22	13	19.28	15.72	62.86	55.09
26	Andrew Miller	BOS	12	9	3	6.36	5.64	75	52.96
27	Ivan Nova	NYA	29	19	10	16.42	12.58	65.52	56.63
28	Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	10	7	3	4.60	5.41	70	45.95
29	Kevin Correia	PIT	26	14	12	11.72	14.28	53.85	45.07
30	Micah Owings	ARI	4	4	0	1.78	2.22	100	44.55
31	Johnny Cueto	CIN	24	15	9	12.81	11.19	62.5	53.38
32	Jered Weaver	LAA	33	21	12	18.88	14.12	63.64	57.21
33	Josh Beckett	BOS	30	20	10	17.89	12.11	66.67	59.62
34	Mike Minor	ATL	15	10	5	8.02	6.98	66.67	53.47
35	Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	36	22	14	20.15	15.85	61.11	55.98
36	Phil Hughes	NYA	15	10	5	8.22	6.78	66.67	54.81
37	Jake Westbrook	STL	34	19	15	17.22	16.78	55.88	50.66
38	Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	33	16	17	14.23	18.77	48.48	43.12
39	C.J. Wilson	TEX	40	24	16	22.27	17.73	60	55.67
40	Jerome Williams	LAA	6	5	1	3.27	2.73	83.33	54.49
41	Tommy Hunter	BAL	11	6	5	4.31	6.69	54.55	39.15
42	Wade Davis	TB	28	16	12	14.32	13.68	57.14	51.15
43	Kevin Millwood	COL	9	6	3	4.33	4.67	66.67	48.11
44	Chris Young	NYN	5	4	1	2.34	2.66	80	46.77
45	Eric Surkamp	SF	5	4	1	2.50	2.50	80	49.91
46	Wade Miley	ARI	7	5	2	3.51	3.49	71.43	50.1
47	Brandon Morrow	TOR	30	17	13	15.54	14.46	56.67	51.8
48	Greg Reynolds	COL	3	3	0	1.58	1.42	100	52.81
49	Joe Saunders	ARI	33	17	16	15.61	17.39	51.52	47.29
50	Ryan Dempster	CHN	34	18	16	16.64	17.36	52.94	48.93
51	Chris Narveson	MIL	28	16	12	14.64	13.36	57.14	52.29
52	Nathan Eovaldi	LAN	6	4	2	2.64	3.36	66.67	44.06
53	Cliff Lee	PHI	33	22	11	20.64	12.36	66.67	62.56
54	Alex White	CLE	10	6	4	4.65	5.36	60	46.45
55	Zach Britton	BAL	27	14	13	12.72	14.28	51.85	47.11
56	Carlos Zambrano	CHN	24	13	11	11.72	12.28	54.17	48.84
57	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	28	16	12	14.73	13.27	57.14	52.6
58	Clay Buchholz	BOS	14	9	5	7.75	6.25	64.29	55.39
59	Brad Peacock	WAS	2	2	0	0.79	1.21	100	39.73
60	Jake Arrieta	BAL	21	11	10	9.81	11.19	52.38	46.7
61	Mike Leake	CIN	26	15	11	13.86	12.14	57.69	53.3
62	Matt Garza	CHN	30	16	14	14.87	15.14	53.33	49.55
63	Edwin Jackson	CHA	35	19	16	17.91	17.09	54.29	51.16
64	Daniel Hudson	ARI	34	19	15	17.91	16.09	55.88	52.67
65	Randall Delgado	ATL	6	4	2	2.92	3.08	66.67	48.62
66	C.C. Sabathia	NYA	34	22	12	20.92	13.08	64.71	61.53
67	Miguel Batista	NYN	4	3	1	1.93	2.07	75	48.14
68	Gio Gonzalez	OAK	32	18	14	16.93	15.07	56.25	52.9
69	Matt Moore	TB	2	2	0	0.95	1.06	100	47.25
70	Luis Mendoza	KC	2	2	0	0.95	1.05	100	47.37
71	John Niese	NYN	26	13	13	11.96	14.04	50	46
72	John Lannan	WAS	33	16	17	14.97	18.03	48.48	45.37
73	Carlos Villanueva	TOR	13	7	6	6.02	6.98	53.85	46.28
74	Ricky Romero	TOR	33	18	15	17.03	15.97	54.55	51.62
75	Ross Detwiler	WAS	11	6	5	5.04	5.96	54.55	45.84
76	Josh Johnson	FLA	9	6	3	5.12	3.88	66.67	56.88
77	Kyle Lohse	STL	33	18	15	17.13	15.87	54.55	51.92
78	Jo-Jo Reyes	TOR	26	12	14	11.14	14.86	46.15	42.83
79	Randy Wells	CHN	23	11	12	10.14	12.86	47.83	44.08
80	Tommy Hanson	ATL	23	14	9	13.17	9.83	60.87	57.27
81	Brad Lincoln	PIT	7	4	3	3.21	3.79	57.14	45.8
82	Jason Vargas	SEA	32	15	17	14.21	17.79	46.88	44.41
83	Anthony Bass	SD	3	2	1	1.28	1.72	66.67	42.77
84	Chien-Ming Wang	WAS	10	5	5	4.30	5.70	50	42.97
85	Matt Palmer	LAA	3	2	1	1.30	1.70	66.67	43.35
86	Dana Eveland	LAN	5	3	2	2.36	2.64	60	47.15
87	Brandon Dickson	STL	1	1	0	0.37	0.63	100	36.83
88	Josh Collmenter	ARI	24	13	11	12.37	11.63	54.17	51.56
89	Dallas Braden	OAK	3	2	1	1.39	1.61	66.67	46.4
90	Aaron Thompson	PIT	1	1	0	0.44	0.56	100	43.57
91	Josh Tomlin	CLE	26	13	13	12.44	13.56	50	47.84
92	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	14	8	6	7.45	6.55	57.14	53.21
93	Brian Gordon	NYA	1	1	0	0.47	0.53	100	46.51
94	Jesse Litsch	TOR	8	4	4	3.48	4.52	50	43.49
95	Kyle McClellan	STL	18	10	8	9.50	8.50	55.56	52.77
96	Juan Nicasio	COL	13	7	6	6.50	6.50	53.85	50.02
97	Everett Teaford	KC	3	2	1	1.51	1.49	66.67	50.3
98	Jarrod Parker	ARI	1	1	0	0.51	0.49	100	51.22
99	Sergio Mitre	MIL	1	1	0	0.51	0.49	100	51.22
100	Dan Runzler	SF	1	1	0	0.52	0.48	100	52.04
101	Alan Johnson	COL	1	1	0	0.54	0.46	100	53.6
102	Matt Beaven	SEA	1	1	0	0.54	0.46	100	53.6
103	Joel Pineiro	LAA	25	13	12	12.55	12.46	52	50.18
104	Graham Godfrey	OAK	4	2	2	1.56	2.44	50	39.07
105	Brian Burres	PIT	1	1	0	0.57	0.43	100	56.99
106	Andrew Cashner	CHN	1	1	0	0.58	0.42	100	57.63
107	James McDonald	PIT	32	15	17	14.59	17.41	46.88	45.58
108	Chris Jakubauskas	BAL	6	3	3	2.58	3.42	50	43.08
109	Dylan Axelrod	CHA	3	2	1	1.60	1.40	66.67	53.18
110	Vin Mazzaro	KC	4	2	2	1.60	2.40	50	39.92
111	Freddy Garcia	NYA	27	15	12	14.63	12.37	55.56	54.17
112	Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	26	13	13	12.64	13.36	50	48.61
113	Henderson Alvarez	TOR	10	5	5	4.65	5.35	50	46.54
114	Rick VandenHurk	BAL	2	1	1	0.68	1.32	50	33.94
115	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	30	16	14	15.71	14.29	53.33	52.36
116	Ross Ohlendorf	PIT	9	4	5	3.74	5.26	44.44	41.58
117	Barry Zito	SF	8	4	4	3.78	4.22	50	47.3
118	Chris Capuano	NYN	31	15	16	14.79	16.21	48.39	47.7
119	Nathan Adcock	KC	2	1	1	0.79	1.21	50	39.47
120	Luis Perez	TOR	4	2	2	1.83	2.17	50	45.82
121	Drew Pomeranz	COL	4	2	2	1.86	2.14	50	46.58
122	Brian Duensing	MIN	27	12	15	11.90	15.10	44.44	44.08
123	Esmil Rogers	COL	13	6	7	5.90	7.10	46.15	45.42
124	Dave Bush	TEX	2	1	1	0.91	1.09	50	45.43
125	Jorge de la Rosa	COL	9	5	4	4.92	4.08	55.56	54.64
126	Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	21	10	11	9.94	11.06	47.62	47.34
127	Brian Sanches	FLA	2	1	1	0.95	1.05	50	47.45
128	Alexi Ogando	TEX	30	17	13	16.97	13.04	56.67	56.55
129	Anthony Swarzak	MIN	11	5	6	4.97	6.03	45.45	45.17
130	Chad Reineke	CIN	2	1	1	1.01	0.99	50	50.59
131	Wade LeBlanc	SD	14	6	8	6.02	7.98	42.86	43.01
132	Cory Luebke	SD	17	8	9	8.03	8.97	47.06	47.23
133	Scott Feldman	TEX	2	1	1	1.03	0.97	50	51.48
134	Marco Estrada	MIL	6	3	3	3.03	2.97	50	50.52
135	Brad Mills	TOR	4	2	2	2.05	1.95	50	51.16
136	Lance Lynn	STL	2	1	1	1.06	0.94	50	52.82
137	Alfredo Simon	BAL	15	6	9	6.06	8.94	40	40.4
138	Cole Hamels	PHI	32	19	13	19.06	12.94	59.38	59.57
139	Zach Duke	ARI	9	4	5	4.06	4.94	44.44	45.14
140	Mitch Talbot	CLE	12	5	7	5.07	6.93	41.67	42.21
141	Bartolo Colon	NYA	26	14	12	14.09	11.91	53.85	54.19
142	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	7	4	3	4.17	2.83	57.14	59.52
143	Chris Tillman	BAL	14	6	8	6.17	7.83	42.86	44.07
144	Felix Hernandez	SEA	33	17	16	17.27	15.73	51.52	52.33
145	Mitch Atkins	BAL	3	1	2	1.28	1.72	33.33	42.69
146	Brad Penny	DET	31	15	16	15.30	15.70	48.39	49.35
147	Charlie Morton	PIT	28	12	16	12.30	15.70	42.86	43.94
148	Matt Cain	SF	34	18	16	18.32	15.68	52.94	53.87
149	Dan Haren	LAA	33	18	15	18.34	14.66	54.55	55.57
150	D.J. Carrasco	NYN	1	0	1	0.36	0.64	0	36.1
151	Tim Wakefield	BOS	23	12	11	12.37	10.63	52.17	53.8
152	Elih Villanueva	FLA	1	0	1	0.40	0.60	0	39.76
153	Jay Buente	FLA	1	0	1	0.42	0.58	0	42.46
154	Joe Blanton	PHI	9	4	5	4.43	4.57	44.44	49.2
155	Jake Peavy	CHA	18	9	9	9.43	8.57	50	52.41
156	Nick Blackburn	MIN	26	11	15	11.45	14.55	42.31	44.03
157	Dustin McGowan	TOR	3	1	2	1.45	1.55	33.33	48.47
158	John Ely	LAN	1	0	1	0.46	0.54	0	46.19
159	Felipe Paulino	KC	21	9	12	9.46	11.54	42.86	45.06
160	Alex Cobb	TB	9	4	5	4.47	4.53	44.44	49.67
161	Homer Bailey	CIN	22	11	11	11.47	10.53	50	52.14
162	Armando Galarraga	ARI	8	3	5	3.48	4.52	37.5	43.52
163	Carl Pavano	MIN	33	14	19	14.48	18.52	42.42	43.88
164	Sean O'Sullivan	KC	10	4	6	4.49	5.51	40	44.87
165	Scott Kazmir	LAA	1	0	1	0.49	0.51	0	48.78
166	Tyson Ross	OAK	7	3	4	3.49	3.51	42.86	49.89
167	Julio Teheran	ATL	3	1	2	1.50	1.50	33.33	49.94
168	Clay Hensley	FLA	8	3	5	3.51	4.49	37.5	43.88
169	Jeff Locke	PIT	4	1	3	1.51	2.49	25	37.87
170	Doug Fister	SEA	33	15	18	15.52	17.48	45.45	47.02
171	Ervin Santana	LAA	34	17	17	17.52	16.48	50	51.54
172	Sam LeCure	CIN	5	2	3	2.54	2.46	40	50.8
173	Brandon McCarthy	OAK	24	11	13	11.56	12.44	45.83	48.17
174	Alex Sanabia	FLA	2	0	2	0.59	1.41	0	29.27
175	Tim Hudson	ATL	33	18	15	18.60	14.40	54.55	56.35
176	Jaime Garcia	STL	37	20	17	20.61	16.39	54.05	55.69
177	Madison Bumgarner	SF	33	17	16	17.62	15.38	51.52	53.38
178	Erik Bedard	SEA	24	12	12	12.62	11.38	50	52.57
179	Rodrigo Lopez	CHN	17	7	10	7.66	9.34	41.18	45.04
180	Yunesky Maya	WAS	4	1	3	1.66	2.34	25	41.59
181	Bud Norris	HOU	31	13	18	13.68	17.32	41.94	44.14
182	Rubby DeLaRosa	LAN	10	4	6	4.70	5.30	40	46.99
183	Liam Hendriks	MIN	4	1	3	1.73	2.27	25	43.3
184	R.A. Dickey	NYN	32	15	17	15.74	16.26	46.88	49.19
185	Jonathan Sanchez	SF	19	9	10	9.74	9.26	47.37	51.28
186	Charles Furbush	SEA	10	3	7	3.76	6.24	30	37.57
187	Brett Myers	HOU	33	13	20	13.76	19.24	39.39	41.69
188	Henry Sosa	HOU	9	3	6	3.78	5.22	33.33	42.05
189	Francisco Liriano	MIN	24	11	13	11.79	12.21	45.83	49.12
190	Trevor Cahill	OAK	33	15	18	15.79	17.21	45.45	47.85
191	Chad Billingsley	LAN	32	15	17	15.80	16.20	46.88	49.37
192	Lucas Harrell	HOU	2	0	2	0.84	1.16	0	41.92
193	Andy Sonnanstine	TB	4	1	3	1.84	2.16	25	46.03
194	Clay Mortensen	COL	6	2	4	2.84	3.16	33.33	47.39
195	Brett Anderson	OAK	13	6	7	6.87	6.13	46.15	52.82
196	Ramon Ortiz	CHN	2	0	2	0.90	1.10	0	44.83
197	Andrew Oliver	DET	2	0	2	0.90	1.10	0	45.13
198	Blake Beavan	SEA	14	5	9	5.90	8.10	35.71	42.17
199	Hector Noesi	NYA	2	0	2	0.91	1.09	0	45.32
200	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	32	15	17	15.92	16.08	46.88	49.74
201	Colby Lewis	TEX	35	18	17	18.92	16.08	51.43	54.07
202	Charlie Furbush	DET	2	0	2	0.93	1.07	0	46.73
203	Scott Baker	MIN	21	9	12	9.95	11.05	42.86	47.37
204	Zachary McAllister	CLE	4	1	3	1.96	2.04	25	48.96
205	Ted Lilly	LAN	33	15	18	15.97	17.03	45.45	48.39
206	Neslon Figueroa	HOU	5	1	4	1.99	3.01	20	39.8
207	Chris Volstad	FLA	29	12	17	12.99	16.01	41.38	44.81
208	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	5	2	3	3.00	2.00	40	60.08
209	A.J. Burnett	NYA	32	17	15	18.01	13.99	53.13	56.27
210	Rich Harden	OAK	16	6	10	7.04	8.96	37.5	43.99
211	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	21	9	12	10.05	10.95	42.86	47.86
212	John Lackey	BOS	28	14	14	15.05	12.95	50	53.76
213	Garrett Richards	LAA	3	0	3	1.10	1.90	0	36.69
214	Tyler Chatwood	LAA	24	10	14	11.13	12.87	41.67	46.37
215	Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	33	14	19	15.13	17.87	42.42	45.85
216	Brad Hand	FLA	12	4	8	5.19	6.81	33.33	43.21
217	Jacob Turner	DET	2	0	2	1.20	0.80	0	60.06
218	Barry Enright	ARI	7	2	5	3.21	3.79	28.57	45.88
219	Travis Wood	CIN	16	7	9	8.21	7.79	43.75	51.34
220	Alfredo Aceves	BOS	4	1	3	2.22	1.78	25	55.59
221	Tim Stauffer	SD	31	13	18	14.38	16.62	41.94	46.38
222	Duane Below	DET	3	0	3	1.42	1.58	0	47.48
223	Mat Latos	SD	31	14	17	15.47	15.53	45.16	49.9
224	Aneury Rodriguez	HOU	6	1	5	2.51	3.49	16.67	41.88
225	Jason Hammel	COL	27	12	15	13.55	13.45	44.44	50.19
226	Anthony Vasquez	SEA	7	1	6	2.62	4.38	14.29	37.36
227	Phil Humber	CHA	26	11	15	12.66	13.34	42.31	48.71
228	Kyle Davies	KC	14	4	10	5.67	8.33	28.57	40.49
229	Kyle Weiland	BOS	5	1	4	2.67	2.33	20	53.44
230	David Price	TB	35	18	17	19.70	15.30	51.43	56.28
231	Derek Lowe	ATL	34	16	18	17.72	16.28	47.06	52.12
232	Chris Schwinden	NYN	4	0	4	1.76	2.24	0	44.07
233	Chris Carpenter	STL	39	20	19	21.79	17.21	51.28	55.86
234	Scott Diamond	MIN	7	1	6	2.80	4.20	14.29	40.03
235	John Danks	CHA	27	12	15	13.90	13.10	44.44	51.49
236	Michael Pineda	SEA	28	12	16	13.96	14.04	42.86	49.87
237	David Huff	CLE	9	2	7	3.97	5.03	22.22	44.06
238	Gavin Floyd	CHA	31	14	17	15.99	15.01	45.16	51.59
239	Tom Gorzelanny	WAS	15	5	10	7.01	7.99	33.33	46.76
240	James Russell	CHN	5	0	5	2.08	2.92	0	41.56
241	Fausto Carmona	CLE	32	13	19	15.13	16.87	40.63	47.27
242	Ricky Nolasco	FLA	33	14	19	16.18	16.82	42.42	49.04
243	Edinson Volquez	CIN	20	8	12	10.20	9.80	40	50.99
244	Josh Outman	OAK	9	2	7	4.20	4.80	22.22	46.65
245	Clayton Richard	SD	18	6	12	8.26	9.74	33.33	45.89
246	Jon Garland	LAN	9	2	7	4.28	4.72	22.22	47.53
247	Anibal Sanchez	FLA	33	14	19	16.33	16.67	42.42	49.49
248	Hiroki Kuroda	LAN	32	14	18	16.36	15.64	43.75	51.12
249	Zach Stewart	TOR	11	3	8	5.36	5.64	27.27	48.74
250	Shaun Marcum	MIL	36	17	19	19.47	16.53	47.22	54.08
251	Tim Lincecum	SF	34	17	17	19.60	14.40	50	57.64
252	Mike Pelfrey	NYN	33	12	21	14.61	18.39	36.36	44.27
253	Brett Cecil	TOR	21	7	14	9.72	11.28	33.33	46.28
254	Danny Duffy	KC	19	5	14	7.73	11.27	26.32	40.67
255	Phil Coke	DET	14	4	10	6.78	7.22	28.57	48.4
256	Livan Hernandez	WAS	29	10	19	12.78	16.22	34.48	44.06
257	Doug Davis	CHN	9	1	8	3.81	5.19	11.11	42.3
258	Aaron Cook	COL	17	5	12	8.00	9.00	29.41	47.07
259	Jordan Lyles	HOU	15	3	12	6.01	8.99	20	40.07
260	Casey Coleman	CHN	17	4	13	7.02	9.98	23.53	41.27
261	Jon Lester	BOS	31	16	15	19.07	11.93	51.61	61.52
262	Brad Bergesen	BAL	12	2	10	5.10	6.90	16.67	42.53
263	Kevin Slowey	MIN	8	0	8	3.44	4.56	0	43.06
264	Dontrelle Willis	CIN	15	4	11	7.50	7.50	26.67	50.03
265	Brandon Beachy	ATL	25	10	15	13.60	11.40	40	54.39
266	Roy Oswalt	PHI	24	10	14	13.65	10.35	41.67	56.88
267	Brian Matusz	BAL	11	1	10	4.80	6.20	9.09	43.63
268	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	30	12	18	15.94	14.06	40	53.14
269	Dustin Moseley	SD	20	5	15	9.03	10.97	25	45.15
270	Jeff Francis	KC	31	10	21	14.10	16.90	32.26	45.48
271	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	32	13	19	17.46	14.54	40.63	54.55
272	J.A. Happ	HOU	28	7	21	11.85	16.15	25	42.31
273	Paul Maholm	PIT	26	7	19	12.01	13.99	26.92	46.18