Duke It Out

May 1st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	Z.Duke vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	63.90%	58.92%	LAN 5-1
DBacks	Cubs	D.Haren vs C.Silva	Cubs	50.98%	55.37%	CHN 7-5
Reds	Cardinals	H.Bailey vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	64.03%	57.65%	CIN 6-3
Astros	Braves	W.Rodriguez vs T.Hudson	Braves	65.87%	52.32%	ATL 10-1
Mets	Phillies	M.Pelfrey vs R.Halladay	Phillies	67.53%	63.53%	PHI 10-0
Rockies	Giants	E.Rogers vs M.Cain	Giants	59.51%	58.33%	SF 6-1
Nationals	Marlins	C.Stammen vs C.Volstad	Marlins	61.54%	49.00%	FLA 7-1
Brewers	Padres	Y.Gallardo vs M.Latos	Brewers	55.95%	53.40%	MIL 2-1
White Sox	Yankees	J.Danks vs J.Vazquez	Yankees	60.16%	56.73%	CHA 7-6
A's	Blue Jays	G.Gonzalez vs D.Eveland	Blue Jays	54.13%	57.07%	OAK 4-3
Rangers	Mariners	M.Harrison vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	69.33%	66.04%	TEX 6-3
Royals	Rays	K.Davies vs D.Price	Rays	72.22%	66.14%	KC 4-2
Twins	Indians	J.Manship vs J.Masterson	Indians	51.92%	54.83%	CLE 5-4
Red Sox	Orioles	D.Matsuzaka vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	61.69%	51.05%	BAL 12-9

Current ROI (as of Friday): 8.95%

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Dodgers Are Strange

April 30th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	C.Morton vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	69.23%	68.34%	LAN 6-2
DBacks	Cubs	R.Lopez vs R.Wells	Cubs	60.32%	67.72%	CHN 11-5
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	59.84%	52.69%	NYN 9-1
Nationals	Marlins	S.Olsen vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	68.75%	57.38%	WAS 7-1
Astros	Braves	B.Myers vs T.Hanson	Braves	66.67%	63.29%	ATL 4-2
Reds	Cardinals	J.Cueto vs B.Penny	Cardinals	66.55%	63.49%	CIN 3-2
Brewers	Padres	D.Bush vs C.Richard	Padres	56.52%	60.76%	SD 3-0
Rockies	Giants	A.Cook vs B.Zito	Giants	57.98%	57.72%	SF 5-2
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Lackey vs D.Hernandez	Red Sox	60.00%	57.11%	BAL 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	F.Garcia vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	71.43%	67.61%	NYA 6-4
Twins	Indians	K.Slowey vs F.Carmona	Twins	51.92%	52.17%	MIN 9-3
Angels	Tigers	J.Pineiro vs R.Porcello	Angels	53.49%	58.36%	DET 10-6
A's	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	55.95%	57.92%	TOR 10-2
Royals	Rays	B.Bannister vs J.Niemann	Rays	70.85%	63.42%	KC 3-2
Rangers	Mariners	C.Lewis vs C.Lee	Mariners	59.51%	63.49%	TEX 2-0

Current ROI (as of Thursday): 5.47%

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Last Place Team Returns Home

April 29th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	B.Buress vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	70.67%	73.26%	PIT 2-0
Braves	Cardinals	J.Jurrjens vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	65.64%	62.75%	STL 10-4
DBacks	Cubs	I.Kennedy vs T.Lilly	Cubs	61.98%	67.95%	ARI 13-5
Reds	Astros	B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt	Astros	62.41%	58.33%	CIN 4-2
Brewers	Padres	D.Davis vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	57.45%	54.14%	SD 9-0
Twins	Tigers	C.Pavano vs D.Willis	Twins	56.90%	59.48%	DET 3-0
White Sox	Rangers	G.Floyd vs S.Feldman	Rangers	56.52%	50.75%	CHA 7-5
Yankees	Orioles	A.Burnett vs B.Matusz	Yankees	63.24%	51.89%	NYA 4-0
A's	Blue Jays	J.Duchscherer vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	55.36%	60.63%	TOR 6-3
Royals	Rays	L.Hochevar vs M.Garza	Rays	70.59%	65.10%	TB 11-1

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 7.72%

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El Y

April 28th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Mets	J.Ely vs J.Maine	Mets	50.49%	51.35%	NYN 7-3
Padres	Marlins	K.Correia vs N.Robertson	Padres	57.08%	51.62%	SD 6-4
Pirates	Brewers	P.Maholm vs C.Narveson	Brewers	58.85%	52.25%	PIT 6-5
Nationals	Cubs	L.Atilano vs R.Dempster	Cubs	66.10%	66.70%	WAS 3-2
DBacks	Rockies	K.Benson vs G.Smith	Rockies	58.33%	61.15%	ARI 12-11
Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum	Giants	58.68%	61.86%	PHI 7-6
Reds	Astros	M.Leake vs F.Paulino	Astros	52.61%	57.14%	CIN 6-4
Braves	Cardinals	K.Kawakami vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	59.18%	54.40%	STL 6-0
Mariners	Royals	R.Smith vs G.Meche	Mariners	52.38%	48.80%	SEA 6-5
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs J.Guthrie	Yankees	68.15%	64.87%	NYA 8-3
Twins	Tigers	S.Baker vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	51.46%	47.91%	DET 11-6
Indians	Angels	J.Westbrook vs E.Santana	Angels	61.54%	60.14%	LAA 4-3
A's	Rays	D.Braden vs J.Shields	Rays	60.47%	55.88%	TB 10-3

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 9.51%

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Take Two Bites Out Of Big Apple

April 27th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Mets	H.Kuroda vs J.Santana	Mets	57.45%	52.14%	NYN 4-0
Dodgers	Mets	C.Haeger vs O.Perez	Mets	52.15%	57.84%	NYN 10-5

Current ROI (as of Monday): 11.09%

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On Broadway

April 26th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Mets	H.Kuroda vs O.Perez	Dodgers	56.52%	55.16%	PPD
Padres	Marlins	M.Latos vs J.Johnson	Marlins	59.68%	64.67%	FLA 10-1
Nationals	Cubs	J.Lannan vs C.Silva	Cubs	60.16%	60.04%	CHN 4-3
Pirates	Brewers	Z.Duke vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	67.21%	63.05%	MIL 17-3
Braves	Cardinals	T.Hudson vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	53.49%	55.21%	STL 4-3
DBacks	Rockies	D.Haren vs J.Hammel	DBacks	51.92%	38.17%	ARI 5-3
Phillies	Giants	R.Halladay vs J.Sanchez	Phillies	60.63%	51.36%	SF 5-1
Red Sox	Blue Jays	J.Beckett vs D.Eveland	Red Sox	58.68%	47.88%	BOS 13-12
Tigers	Rangers	J.Bonderman vs M.Harrison	Rangers	58.85%	54.45%	DET 8-6
Mariners	Royals	F.Hernandez vs K.Davies	Mariners	61.83%	59.57%	KC 3-1
Indians	Angels	D.Huff vs J.Weaver	Angels	63.64%	61.53%	LAA 5-2

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.18%

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Billingsley For .500?

April 25th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Billingsley vs S.Olsen	Dodgers	59.18%	53.38%	WAS 1-0
Padres	Reds	C.Richard vs H.Bailey	Padres	52.38%	50.57%	CIN 5-4
Pirates	Astros	C.Morton vs B.Myers	Astros	62.55%	56.79%	HOU 10-3
Cubs	Brewers	R.Wells vs D.Bush	Brewers	52.83%	46.46%	CHN 12-2
Cardinals	Giants	B.Penny vs M.Cain	Giants	54.13%	50.60%	STL 2-0
Phillies	DBacks	K.Kendrick vs R.Lopez	Phillies	53.70%	52.10%	ARI 8-6
Marlins	Rockies	C.Volstad vs J.De la Rosa	Rockies	61.09%	68.61%	COL 8-4
Braves	Mets	T.Hanson vs M.Pelfrey	Braves	53.27%	47.17%	NYN 1-0
Orioles	Red Sox	D.Hernandez vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	61.54%	59.89%	BAL 7-6
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Morrow vs D.Price	Rays	68.75%	60.99%	TB 6-0
Mariners	White Sox	J.Vargas vs J.Danks	White Sox	60.00%	59.66%	CHA 3-2
Twins	Royals	K.Slowey vs B.Bannister	Twins	56.90%	53.04%	KC 4-3
Tigers	Rangers	R.Porcello vs C.Lewis	Rangers	55.75%	53.98%	TEX 8-4
Yankees	Angels	J.Vazquez vs S.Kazmir	Yankees	56.90%	53.97%	LAA 8-4
Indians	A's	J.Masterson vs G.Gonzalez	A's	52.15%	52.37%	OAK 11-0

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 9.91%

Alternate Run Lines

Wine Cellar Dwellars

April 24th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Kershaw vs C.Stammen	Dodgers	62.12%	56.34%	LAN 4-3
Padres	Reds	W.LeBlanc vs J.Cueto	Reds	55.95%	56.51%	SD 5-0
Braves	Mets	J.Jurrjens vs J.Niese	Braves	57.45%	51.06%	NYN 3-1
Pirates	Astros	C.Jakubauskas vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	63.37%	67.83%	HOU 5-2
Cubs	Brewers	T.Lilly vs D.Davis	Cubs	52.61%	52.00%	CHN 5-1
Marlins	Rockies	N.Robertson vs A.Cook	Rockies	60.00%	58.66%	COL 8-1
Phillies	DBacks	N.Figueroa vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	50.98%	43.16%	PHI 3-2
Cardinals	Giants	A.Wainwright vs B.Zito	Cardinals	59.18%	55.02%	SF 2-0
Indians	A's	F.Carmona vs B.Anderson	A's	59.18%	63.97%	CLE 6-1
Yankees	Angels	A.Pettitte vs J.Pineiro	Yankees	53.49%	47.19%	NYA 7-1
Mariners	White Sox	D.Fister vs F.Garcia	White Sox	52.83%	53.44%	CHA 5-4
Blue Jays	Rays	R.Romero vs J.Niemann	Rays	58.51%	53.41%	TB 9-3
Twins	Royals	N.Blackburn vs L.Hochevar	Twins	54.95%	48.47%	MIN 9-7
Orioles	Red Sox	B.Matusz vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	66.89%	54.93%	BOS 7-6
Tigers	Rangers	D.Willis vs S.Feldman	Rangers	61.54%	60.07%	DET 8-4

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 12.62%

World Series Odds

Thanks God It's Nats Day

April 23rd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Haeger vs L.Atilano	Dodgers	54.13%	48.73%	WAS 5-1
Braves	Mets	K.Kawakami vs J.Maine	Braves	56.52%	53.72%	NYN 5-2
Padres	Reds	K.Correia vs J.Cueto	Reds	53.70%	51.41%	SD 10-4
Pirates	Astros	P.Maholm vs R.Oswalt	Astros	61.54%	60.93%	HOU 4-3
Cubs	Brewers	R.Dempster vs J.Suppan	Cubs	54.34%	59.71%	CHN 8-1
Marlins	Rockies	R.Nolasco vs G.Smith	Marlins	52.38%	45.19%	PPD
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs K.Benson	Phillies	63.64%	63.35%	ARI 7-4
Cardinals	Giants	J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum	Giants	61.98%	65.12%	SF 4-1
Orioles	Red Sox	J.Guthrie vs J.Lester	Red Sox	69.23%	62.24%	BOS 4-3
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Cecil vs M.Garza	Rays	69.23%	69.22%	TOR 6-5
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs S.Feldman	Rangers	54.55%	56.73%	TEX 5-4
Mariners	White Sox	R.Rowland vs G.Floyd	White Sox	54.55%	57.41%	CHA 7-6
Twins	Royals	C.Pavano vs G.Meche	Twins	57.45%	61.29%	MIN 8-3
Indians	A's	J.Westbrook vs J.Duchscherer	A's	59.35%	57.05%	OAK 10-0
Yankees	Angels	A.Burnett vs E.Santana	Yankees	56.14%	56.11%	NYA 6-4

Current ROI (as of Friday): 10.35%

Baseball Sportsbook

Dodgers Anxious To Take A Leake

April 22nd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	V.Padilla vs M.Leake	Dodgers	52.38%	51.26%	CIN 8-5
Brewers	Pirates	R.Wolf vs D.McCutchen	Brewers	59.68%	60.79%	MIL 20-0
Rockies	Nationals	U.Jimenez vs L.Hernandez	Rockies	62.69%	57.52%	COL 2-0
Cubs	Mets	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Santana	Mets	61.24%	56.94%	NYN 5-2
Phillies	Braves	J.Moyer vs D.Lowe	Braves	57.98%	49.12%	PHI 8-3
Marlins	Astros	A.Sanchez vs F.Paulino	Marlins	54.75%	45.05%	FLA 5-1
Indians	Twins	M.Talbot vs S.Baker	Twins	66.67%	67.45%	CLE 8-1
Yankees	A's	C.Sabathia vs D.Braden	Yankees	63.50%	60.48%	OAK 4-2
Rangers	Red Sox	C.Wilson vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	58.68%	48.91%	TEX 3-0
Rays	White Sox	J.Shields vs J.Peavy	White Sox	53.05%	53.36%	TB 10-2
Tigers	Angels	J.Verlander vs J.Saunders	Tigers	53.05%	55.54%	DET 5-4

Current ROI (as of Thursday): 9.36%

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Nines Not Enough

April 21th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	H.Kuroda vs A.Harang	Dodgers	54.75%	59.10%	LAN 14-6
Giants	Padres	T.Wellemeyer vs J.Garland	Padres	55.56%	59.83%	SD 5-2
Brewers	Pirates	Y.Gallardo vs Z.Duke	Brewers	56.71%	49.92%	MIL 8-0
Rockies	Nationals	J.Hammel vs J.Lannan	Rockies	52.15%	52.11%	WAS 6-4
Cubs	Mets	C.Silva vs O.Perez	Mets	51.22%	49.78%	CHN 9-3
Phillies	Braves	R.Halladay vs T.Hudson	Phillies	59.18%	61.36%	PHI 2-0
Marlins	Astros	J.Johnson vs B.Norris	Marlins	58.85%	57.12%	HOU 5-4
Cardinals	Diamondbacks	C.Carpenter vs E.Jackson	Cardinals	59.51%	54.88%	STL 9-4
Royals	Blue Jays	Z.Greinke vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	51.46%	44.88%	KC 4-3
Rangers	Red Sox	M.Harrison vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	62.28%	62.18%	BOS 8-7
Indians	Twins	D.Huff vs F.Liriano	Twins	63.64%	59.62%	MIN 6-0
Rays	White Sox	W.Davis vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	52.61%	57.11%	TB 12-0
Yankees	A's	P.Hughes vs B.Sheets	Yankees	57.45%	53.36%	NYA 3-1
Tigers	Angels	J.Bonderman vs J.Weaver	Angels	62.41%	62.55%	DET 4-3
Orioles	Mariners	K.Millwood vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	65.52%	62.91%	SEA 4-1

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 10.67%

MLB Schedule

Dodgers Likely To Hit Homer

April 20th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey	Dodgers	55.95%	54.85%	CIN 11-9
Brewers	Pirates	D.Bush vs C.Morton	Brewers	55.36%	51.31%	MIL 8-1
Rockies	Nationals	J.De la Rosa vs S.Olsen	Rockies	57.81%	58.70%	COL 10-4
Cubs	Mets	C.Zambrano vs M.Pelfrey	Cubs	51.69%	47.65%	NYN 4-0
Phillies	Braves	K.Kendrick vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.83%	56.87%	ATL 4-3
Marlins	Astros	C.Volstad vs B.Myers	Marlins	51.46%	48.52%	HOU 7-5
Cardinals	DBacks	K.Lohse vs D.Haren	DBacks	58.16%	57.89%	ARI 9-7
Giants	Padres	J.Sanchez vs M.Latos	Giants	52.61%	57.98%	SD 1-0
Royals	Blue Jays	K.Davies vs D.Eveland	Blue Jays	57.26%	59.34%	TOR 4-3
Rangers	Red Sox	C.Lewis vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	57.26%	59.34%	BOS 7-6
Indians	Twins	J.Masterson vs K.Slowey	Twins	60.16%	57.35%	MIN 5-1
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs J.Danks	Rays	51.92%	48.28%	CHA 4-1
Yankees	A's	J.Vazquez vs G.Gonzalez	Yankees	62.55%	57.00%	TBD
Tigers	Angels	R.Porcello vs S.Kazmir	Angels	55.75%	52.50%	LAA 6-5
Orioles	Mariners	D.Hernandez vs J.Vargas	Mariners	56.90%	59.71%	SEA 3-1

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 12.74%

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Nati Eve

April 19th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Nationals	A.Cook vs C.Stammen	Rockies	59.18%	49.80%	WAS 5-2
Cubs	Mets	R.Wells vs J.Niese	Cubs	54.13%	55.76%	NYN 6-1
Cardinals	DBacks	B.Penny vs R.Lopez	Cardinals	56.52%	54.60%	STL 4-2
Giants	Padres	M.Cain vs C.Richard	Giants	55.95%	48.54%	SD 3-2
Rays	Red Sox	J.Niemann vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	62.96%	56.76%	TB 8-2
Royals	Blue Jays	B.Bannister vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	53.49%	49.66%	TOR 8-1
Tigers	Angels	D.Willis vs J.Pineiro	Angels	62.26%	66.08%	LAA 2-0
Orioles	Mariners	B.Bergesen vs D.Fister	Mariners	60.16%	57.78%	SEA 8-2

Current ROI (as of Monday): 9.03%

MLB Odds

Kershaw Day

April 18th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	61.39%	61.88%	LAN 2-1
Reds	Pirates	B.Arroyo vs P.Maholm	Reds	53.70%	46.33%	PIT 5-3
Marlins	Phillies	N.Robertson vs C.Hamels	Phillies	66.67%	66.31%	FLA 2-0
Brewers	Nationals	D.Davis vs J.Marquis	Brewers	52.61%	44.22%	MIL 11-7
Rockies	Braves	G.Smith vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	59.18%	59.40%	ATL 4-3
Astros	Cubs	W.Rodriguez vs R.Dempster	Cubs	63.50%	61.20%	HOU 3-2
DBacks	Padres	I.Kennedy vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	52.38%	54.42%	SD 5-3
Mets	Cardinals	J.Maine vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	70.67%	69.94%	NYN 5-3
White Sox	Indians	G.Floyd vs F.Carmona	Indians	54.13%	42.99%	CLE 7-4
Rangers	Yankees	R.Harden vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	68.25%	68.30%	NYA 5-2
Angels	Blue Jays	E.Santana vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	56.14%	61.81%	LAA 3-1
Rays	Red Sox	M.Garza vs J.Lester	Red Sox	57.45%	59.09%	TB 7-1
Royals	Twins	L.Hochevar vs C.Pavano	Twins	65.28%	64.28%	KC 10-5
Orioles	A's	B.Matusz vs B.Anderson	A's	62.12%	60.41%	BAL 8-3
Tigers	Mariners	M.Scherzer vs I.Snell	Tigers	54.13%	50.92%	DET 4-2

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.50%

MLB Odds

Mission Improbable

April 17th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger	Giants	60.78%	61.05%	SF 9-0
Brewers	Nationals	R.Wolf vs L.Hernandez	Brewers	60.78%	52.69%	WAS 8-0
Astros	Cubs	R.Oswalt vs T.Gorzelanny	Cubs	56.52%	55.65%	HOU 4-3
Mets	Cardinals	J.Santana vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	51.22%	51.85%	NYN 2-1
Reds	Pirates	J.Cueto vs D.McCutchen	Reds	55.56%	57.25%	PIT 5-4
Marlins	Phillies	R.Nolasco vs J.Moyer	Phillies	51.22%	57.33%	FLA 5-1
Rockies	Braves	U.Jimenez vs K.Kawakami	Rockies	53.49%	55.12%	COL 4-0
DBacks	Padres	K.Benson vs K.Correia	Padres	56.52%	59.17%	SD 5-0
Rangers	Yankees	S.Feldman vs A.Burnett	Yankees	63.90%	61.85%	NYA 7-3
Angels	Blue Jays	J.Saunders vs B.Tallet	Angels	51.92%	44.46%	LAA 6-3
Royals	Twins	G.Meche vs N.Blackburn	Twins	63.10%	58.15%	MIN 6-5
Orioles	A's	J.Guthrie vs J.Duchscherer	A's	61.54%	53.93%	OAK 4-3
White Sox	Indians	J.Peavy vs J.Westbrook	White Sox	55.95%	53.22%	CLE 3-2
Rays	Red Sox	J.Shields vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	55.16%	51.71%	TB 6-5
Tigers	Mariners	J.Verlander vs R.Smith	Tigers	56.71%	55.18%	SEA 4-2

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 15.59%

MLB Odds

Haters Coming To Town

April 16th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	T.Wellemeyer vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	58.68%	59.33%	LAN 10-8
Astros	Cubs	F.Paulino vs T.Gorzelanny	Cubs	63.10%	62.52%	CHN 7-2
Reds	Pirates	M.Leake vs Z.Duke	Pirates	51.46%	55.45%	PIT 4-3
Marlins	Phillies	A.Sanchez vs R.Halladay	Phillies	71.43%	72.36%	PHI 8-6
Brewers	Nationals	Y.Gallardo vs J.Lannan	Brewers	59.68%	48.65%	WAS 5-3
Rockies	Braves	J.Hammel vs D.Lowe	Braves	56.90%	47.02%	ATL 9-5
Mets	Cardinals	O.Perez vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	71.43%	62.91%	STL 4-3
DBacks	Padres	E.Jackson vs J.Garland	DBacks	51.92%	48.98%	SD 6-3
White Sox	Indians	M.Buehrle vs M.Talbot	White Sox	56.71%	57.35%	CLE 6-2
Rangers	Yankees	C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	67.74%	67.48%	TBD
Angels	Blue Jays	J.Weaver vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	50.98%	48.75%	LAA 7-5
Rays	Red Sox	W.Davis vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	64.91%	60.26%	TBD
Royals	Twins	Z.Greinke vs S.Baker	Twins	55.56%	52.09%	MIN 10-3
Orioles	A's	K.Millwood vs D.Braden	A's	58.68%	61.17%	OAK 4-2
Tigers	Mariners	J.Bonderman vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	64.41%	64.89%	SEA 11-3

Current ROI (as of Friday): 15.46%

MLB Odds

Taxation Without Ortizitation

April 15th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	D.Haren vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	52.38%	53.77%	LAN 6-5
Astros	Cardinals	B.Norris vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	69.70%	61.86%	HOU 5-1
Brewers	Cubs	J.Suppan vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	63.37%	63.38%	MIL 8-6
Nationals	Phillies	S.Olsen vs J.Happ	Phillies	69.70%	64.80%	WAS 7-5
Mets	Rockies	M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	66.78%	65.79%	NYN 5-0
Braves	Padres	T.Hudson vs M.Latos	Braves	55.36%	53.20%	ATL 6-2
Reds	Marlins	A.Harang vs J.Johnson	Marlins	59.51%	59.57%	FLA 10-2
Rangers	Indians	M.Harrison vs D.Huff	Rangers	53.27%	45.90%	CLE 3-2
Red Sox	Twins	T.Wakefield vs F.Liriano	Twins	55.16%	55.48%	MIN 8-0
Angels	Yankees	S.Kazmir vs P.Hughes	Yankees	62.96%	57.45%	NYA 6-2
White Sox	Blue Jays	F.Garcia vs D.Eveland	Blue Jays	53.49%	52.05%	TOR 7-3
Orioles	A's	D.Hernandez vs B.Sheets	A's	60.00%	56.44%	OAK 6-2

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 10.90%

MLB Odds

Outfield Of Dingers

April 14th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	R.Lopez vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	65.03%	63.91%	ARI 9-7
Brewers	Cubs	D.Bush vs R.Wells	Cubs	57.81%	57.85%	CHN 7-6
Pirates	Giants	C.Morton vs J.Sanchez	Giants	63.24%	60.83%	SF 6-0
Nationals	Phillies	C.Stammen vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	68.15%	57.85%	PHI 14-7
Reds	Marlins	H.Bailey vs C.Volstad	Marlins	55.16%	48.96%	FLA 5-3
Astros	Cardinals	B.Myers vs B.Penny	Cardinals	68.75%	64.43%	STL 2-1
Mets	Rockies	J.Niese vs A.Cook	Rockies	64.54%	59.55%	COL 6-5
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs C.Richard	Braves	58.51%	48.69%	ATL 6-1
Royals	Tigers	K.Davies vs R.Porcello	Tigers	62.26%	58.51%	KC 7-3
Angels	Yankees	J.Pineiro vs J.Vazquez	Yankees	66.89%	59.01%	LAA 5-3
Red Sox	Twins	J.Lackey vs K.Slowey	Red Sox	55.36%	52.76%	BOS 6-3
Rays	Orioles	D.Price vs B.Bergesen	Rays	57.81%	52.80%	TB 9-1
Rangers	Indians	C.Wilson vs J.Masterson	Rangers	51.46%	49.02%	TEX 6-2
White Sox	Blue Jays	J.Danks vs B.Morrow	White Sox	53.92%	53.24%	CHA 11-1
A's	Mariners	G.Gonzalez vs J.Vargas	A's	51.22%	46.72%	SEA 4-2

If you were betting today's games, here is the list of teams to bet on ranked in order of confidence level (biggest to smallest bet). Higher number = Highest bets
15 - SD
14 - WAS
13 - LAA
12 - CIN
11 - BAL
10 - SEA
9 - NYN
8 - HOU
7 - KC
6 - MIN
5 - CLE
4 - PIT
3 - CHN
2 - ARI
1 - TOR

Current ROI (as of Monday): 17.59%

MLB Odds

Kershaw The Golden Flower

April 13th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	I.Kennedy vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	62.55%	63.90%	LAN 9-5
Reds	Marlins	B.Arroyo vs N.Robertson	Marlins	54.34%	51.78%	CIN 10-8
Mets	Rockies	J.Maine vs G.Smith	Rockies	58.33%	60.05%	COL 11-3
Pirates	Giants	P.Maholm vs M.Cain	Giants	60.32%	60.25%	SF 6-5
Royals	Tigers	B.Bannister vs D.Willis	Tigers	57.26%	56.64%	DET 6-5
Angels	Yankees	E.Santana vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	63.64%	65.62%	NYA 7-5
Rays	Orioles	J.Niemann vs B.Matusz	Rays	53.49%	52.85%	TB 8-6
White Sox	Blue Jays	G.Floyd vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	52.15%	51.95%	TOR 4-2
A's	Mariners	B.Anderson vs D.Fister	A's	55.36%	53.71%	SEA 3-0

Current ROI (as of Monday): 14.03%

MLB Odds

Shades Of Mediocrity

April 12th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Brewers	Cubs	D.Davis vs R.Dempster	Cubs	59.51%	63.57%	CHN 9-5
Nationals	Phillies	J.Marquis vs C.Hamels	Phillies	71.83%	66.91%	PHI 7-4
Astros	Cardinals	W.Rodriguez vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	67.32%	61.13%	STL 5-0
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs K.Correia	Braves	59.68%	51.71%	SD 17-2
Reds	Marlins	J.Cueto vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	59.51%	59.45%	CIN 6-5
Pirates	Giants	R.Ohlendorf vs B.Zito	Giants	62.41%	63.69%	SF 9-3
Royals	Tigers	L.Hochevar vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	65.16%	61.45%	KC 10-5
Rangers	Indians	R.Harden vs F.Carmona	Rangers	52.61%	51.43%	TEX 4-2
Red Sox	Twins	J.Lester vs C.Pavano	Red Sox	58.85%	48.68%	MIN 5-2
A's	Mariners	J.Duchscherer vs R.Smith	Mariners	53.27%	59.30%	OAK 4-0
Rays	Orioles	M.Garza vs J.Guthrie	Rays	59.35%	55.28%	TB 5-1
White Sox	Blue Jays	J.Peavy vs B.Tallet	White Sox	55.36%	51.38%	CHA 8-7

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.68%

MLB Odds

Torre! Torre! Tora!

The bombing of the Dodgers bullpen...

April 11th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Haeger vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	55.16%	51.86%	FLA 7-6
Padres	Rockies	J.Garland vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	70.59%	66.07%	COL 4-2
Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum	Giants	65.87%	64.18%	SF 6-3
Nationals	Mets	L.Hernandez vs J.Santana	Mets	70.15%	56.14%	WAS 5-2
Cubs	Reds	T.Gorzelanny vs M.Leake	Reds	53.92%	49.63%	CIN 3-1
Phillies	Astros	R.Halladay vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	64.66%	58.44%	PHI 2-1
Cardinals	Brewers	C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf	Cardinals	59.84%	50.43%	MIL 8-7
Pirates	DBacks	Z.Duke vs E.Jackson	DBacks	67.85%	58.81%	ARI 15-6
Indians	Tigers	J.Westbrook vs J.Verlander	Tigers	65.28%	70.48%	DET 9-8
Blue Jays	Orioles	S.Marcum vs K.Millwood	Orioles	53.70%	57.15%	TOR 5-2
Yankees	Rays	A.Burnett vs J.Shields	Rays	52.61%	54.43%	NYA 7-3
Mariners	Rangers	I.Snell vs S.Feldman	Rangers	59.51%	58.22%	TEX 9-2
Red Sox	Royals	C.Buchholz vs G.Meche	Red Sox	58.33%	52.88%	BOS 8-6
Twins	White Sox	N.Blackburn vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	54.75%	54.22%	CHA 5-4
A's	Angels	D.Braden vs J.Saunders	Angels	56.14%	53.25%	OAK 9-4

Current ROI: 11.41%

MLB Odds

Third Wins A Charm

April 10th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Marlins	V.Padilla vs J.Johnson	Marlins	58.85%	56.56%	FLA 7-6
Padres	Rockies	M.Latos vs J.Hammel	Rockies	60.00%	66.08%	SD 5-4
Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Wellemeyer	Braves	54.95%	50.22%	ATL 7-2
Nationals	Mets	J.Lannan vs O.Perez	Mets	54.95%	48.40%	WAS 4-3
Cubs	Reds	C.Zambrano vs A.Harang	Reds	53.92%	48.19%	CHN 4-3
Phillies	Astros	J.Moyer vs F.Paulino	Phillies	56.90%	58.30%	PHI 9-6
Cardinals	Brewers	J.Garcia vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	56.52%	57.52%	STL 7-1
Pirates	DBacks	D.McCutchen vs D.Haren	DBacks	72.14%	69.03%	PIT 6-3
Indians	Tigers	M.Talbot vs J.Bonderman	Tigers	60.47%	57.40%	DET 4-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	D.Eveland vs D.Hernandez	Orioles	57.98%	49.13%	TOR 3-0
Yankees	Rays	C.Sabathia vs W.Davis	Yankees	57.67%	54.67%	NYA 10-0
Mariners	Rangers	F.Hernandez vs M.Harrison	Mariners	59.02%	56.64%	SEA 4-3
Red Sox	Royals	J.Beckett vs Z.Greinke	Red Sox	53.92%	45.05%	BOS 8-3
Twins	White Sox	S.Baker vs F.Garcia	Twins	55.16%	52.06%	MIN 2-1
A's	Angels	B.Sheets vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.02%	60.88%	LAA 4-3

Current ROI: 15.90%

MLB Odds

Big In Florida

April 9th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Marlins	H.Kuroda vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	54.13%	56.06%	LAN 7-3
Padres	Rockies	C.Richard vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	63.24%	63.69%	COL 7-0
Braves	Giants	T.Hudson vs J.Sanchez	Braves	54.75%	42.62%	SF 5-4
Nationals	Mets	G.Mock vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	57.26%	55.23%	NYN 8-2
Cubs	Reds	C.Silva vs H.Bailey	Reds	55.95%	56.15%	CIN 5-4
Phillies	Astros	J.Happ vs B.Norris	Phillies	59.84%	57.65%	PHI 8-0
Cardinals	Brewers	K.Lohse vs D.Bush	Cardinals	51.22%	46.06%	STL 5-4
Pirates	DBacks	C.Morton vs R.Lopez	DBacks	57.26%	55.55%	ARI 9-1
Indians	Tigers	D.Huff vs R.Porcello	Tigers	58.33%	52.24%	DET 5-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	B.Morrow vs B.Bergesen	Orioles	57.08%	59.66%	TOR 7-6
Yankees	Rays	J.Vazquez vs D.Price	Yankees	52.38%	53.89%	TB 9-3
Mariners	Rangers	J.Vargas vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.84%	52.30%	TEX 6-2
Red Sox	Royals	T.Wakefield vs K.Davies	Red Sox	59.51%	53.62%	KC 4-3
Twins	White Sox	F.Liriano vs J.Danks	White Sox	52.15%	54.23%	MIN 4-3
A's	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs M.Palmer	Angels	56.71%	55.36%	OAK 10-4

Current ROI: 24.65%

MLB Odds

Leaving Loss Pittsburgh

April 8th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	C.Billingsley vs P.Maholm	Dodgers	59.18%	52.14%	LAN 10-2
Phillies	Nationals	K.Kendrick vs C.Stammen	Phillies	58.68%	51.06%	WAS 6-5
Marlins	Mets	N.Robertson vs J.Niese	Mets	54.13%	54.07%	FLA 3-1
Cardinals	Reds	B.Penny vs B.Arroyo	Cardinals	51.92%	46.25%	CIN 2-1
Cubs	Braves	R.Wells vs T.Hanson	Braves	65.52%	55.84%	CHN 2-0
Orioles	Rays	B.Matusz vs J.Niemann	Rays	63.50%	63.22%	BAL 5-4
Twins	Angels	K.Slowey vs J.Pineiro	Angels	54.95%	61.56%	MIN 10-1
Mariners	A's	D.Fister vs B.Anderson	A's	62.26%	61.26%	OAK 6-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	R.Romero vs C.Wilson	Rangers	61.39%	53.40%	TOR 3-1
Tigers	Royals	D.Willis vs B.Bannister	Royals	53.49%	54.63%	DET 7-3
Indians	White Sox	J.Masterson vs G.Floyd	White Sox	57.45%	58.65%	CLE 5-3

Current ROI: 11.52%

MLB Odds

Kershaw For The Win?

April 7th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	C.Kershaw vs R.Ohlendorf	Dodgers	61.09%	60.72%	PIT 4-3
Giants	Astros	M.Cain vs B.Myers	Giants	59.68%	54.82%	SF 10-4
Rockies	Brewers	A.Cook vs D.Davis	Brewers	52.15%	53.28%	MIL 5-4
Phillies	Nationals	C.Hamels vs J.Marquis	Phillies	61.54%	54.78%	PHI 8-4
Marlins	Mets	R.Nolasco vs J.Maine	Marlins	53.92%	53.48%	FLA 7-6
Cardinals	Reds	A.Wainwright vs J.Cueto	Cardinals	57.26%	56.84%	STL 6-3
Cubs	Braves	R.Dempster vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	59.68%	54.04%	ATL 3-2
Padres	DBacks	K.Correia vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	58.16%	47.48%	ARI 5-3
Yankees	Red Sox	A.Pettitte vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	59.02%	55.72%	NYA 3-1
Orioles	Rays	J.Guthrie vs M.Garza	Rays	67.95%	63.46%	TB 4-3
Twins	Angels	C.Pavano vs E.Santana	Angels	59.68%	49.22%	MIN 4-2
Mariners	A's	R.Smith vs J.Duchscherer	A's	55.16%	48.90%	OAK 6-5
Blue Jays	Rangers	B.Tallet vs R.Harden	Rangers	64.91%	56.56%	TOR 7-4
Tigers	Royals	M.Scherzer vs L.Hochevar	Tigers	56.14%	51.28%	KC 3-2
Indians	White Sox	F.Carmona vs J.Peavy	White Sox	61.83%	59.94%	CLE 5-3

Current ROI: 42.3%

MLB Odds

The Seven Simulations

April 6th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Astros	B.Zito vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	56.33%	54.80%	SF 3-0
Rockies	Brewers	G.Smith vs R.Wolf	Brewers	58.16%	61.48%	MIL 7-5
Padres	DBacks	C.Young vs E.Jackson	DBacks	60.32%	60.41%	SD 6-3
Yankees	Red Sox	A.Burnett vs J.Lester	Red Sox	58.33%	59.50%	NYA 6-4
Orioles	Rays	K.Millwood vs J.Shields	Rays	63.64%	60.83%	TB 4-3
Twins	Angels	N.Blackburn vs J.Saunders	Angels	55.36%	51.03%	MIN 5-3
Mariners	A's	I.Snell vs D.Braden	A's	55.95%	56.71%	OAK 2-1

MLB Odds

First Of Manny Wins

April 5th, Dodgers vs Pirates

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	V.Padilla vs Z.Duke	Dodgers	57.08%	51.08%	PIT 11-5

MLB Odds