The Case of the Needy Bullpen

Ken Gurnick of MLB.Com is speculating that a possible Dodger trade partner, the Cincinnati Reds are coming to town. Gurnick speculates that the Dodgers have a possible interest in a few of the Reds bullpen arms.

It also has the Dodgers in search mode for bullpen help with the July 31 Trade Deadline approaching. In a stroke of timing, one club they've targeted is coming to town. The Cincinnati Reds, who arrive Monday night, have a bullpen of veterans that appeal to the Dodgers. Primarily, that means closer Francisco Cordero, right-handed workhorse David Weathers and lefty specialist Arthur Rhodes. The Orioles also have some relievers that fit the Dodgers profile, most notably George Sherrill. - Ken Gurnick

Need:
First off, do the Dodgers need another arm in the bullpen? Well, that question can be best answered by meeting the following criteria.

1. Would any of the options available improve upon what you already have?
2. Are there any injury concerns with any of the top three or four members of the bullpen depth wise?


If both of these criteria are met, then it boils down to what players you would have to give up and what contract would you be taking over. Undoubtedly, the Dodgers could find a bullpen arm or two that would be an improvement over what they already have, but at what cost!?

Here is the current Dodger bullpen depth.

Name	Skinny
J.Broxton	Top closer. Lingering toe injury a concern.
R.Troncoso	Solid but not spectacular, probably not a worthy setup man at this point.
G.Mota	Has been lights out after a very rocky start.
J.McDonald	Best fit is in long relief.
S.Elbert	Will contribute more next year.
B.Leach	Left handed
J.Weaver	Spot starter and long relief specialist.
C.Vargas	Long relief guy, could be headed to minors.
R.Belisario	15 Day DL, with sprained elbow. Effective setup man first half of season.
H.Guo	Expected back any time, not sure what to expect. 2008 Setup Man of the Year!
C.Wade	15 Day DL, with shoulder sprain.
W.Ohman	DL, sore left shoulder.

Let's take a look at these names that Gurnick mentions to see which if any are options the Dodgers should be considering. With one added caveat though, I won't match the names with the stats until later as not to bias ourselves. Please don't cheat and look up the names that match these numbers! :)

Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	FIP	Contract
Player A	25.0	8.57	3.72	0.37	.279	3.23	09:$0.4M, FA
Player B	31.1	6.03	4.02	1.15	.220	4.70	09:$3.5M, 10:$3.7M club option ($0.4M buyout)
Player C	38.1	8.22	2.82	0.70	.270	3.33	09:$2.75M, Arb elig.
Player D	38.0	7.58	3.79	0.24	.250	2.96	08:$8.5M, 09:$12M, 10:$12M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
Player E	48.1	8.57	3.72	0.37	.279	3.23	09:$0.5M, FA
Player F	31.1	7.76	4.02	0.57	.207	3.49	09:$2M, 10:$2M

Let's first take the time to weed out this list based on talent or lack there of. I am going to nominate Player B as the first pitcher kicked off of the island. Please say good-bye to David Weathers. That leaves us with five pitchers left.

Next, let's look at some of the contracts these guys have. You certainly don't want to saddle yourself with a terrible contract, especially from a bullpen pitcher. Remember, we already have the best closer in the game, so no need to overpay at this position. Player D quickly raises a red flag, with around $28M still gauranteed over the next two plus years. Let's eliminate this player from our list. Please say good-bye to Reds closer Francisco Cordero.

This leaves us with Players A,C,E,F. Things get a little harder as there is less and less difference between value and contracts here. I have to admit that I've placed two placebo pitchers among the list. Two of the remaining four pitchers in the list, are already members of the Dodgers bullpen. Player A is Jeff Weaver, and Player E is Ronald Belisario (currently on the DL). That narrows the field down to Player C and Player F.

A little more info on these two players is needed. Player C is right handed and 32 years old and under team control (arbitration) for one more year. Player F is left handed and is 39 years old and signed through the 2010 season. The Dodgers current left handed options are Brent Leach, Scott Elbert and HongZhi Guo. None of the three offer too much excitement for pitching high leverage innings, though Guo if healthy could be that pitcher, but I think by the time the trade deadline rolls around his health concerns will still be lingering.

I am going to call this one a draw, it's just too close to call. If I had to choose, I would give a slight edge to Player C over Player F, mostly due to the very low BABIP from Player F. Let's reveal who these last two players are. Player F is the 39 year old left handed setup man for the Reds, Arthur Rhodes. Player C is the 32 year old right handed reliever for the Orioles, George Sherril. Of the names thrown out in the Gurnick article, I'd only have interest in trading for Sherril and Rhodes. Of course, if the Orioles and Reds want too much for either of these two pitchers, then I wouldn't make the deal.

While the Dodgers do have injury issues in the bullpen, they are more of the nagging type. Still, the Dodgers have a lot at risk this year, as it's not every year you get to the end of July with the best record in all of baseball. It's not a bad idea to hedge against these nagging injury questions. The Dodgers still have a lot of above replacement level bullpen depth, nonetheless Arthur Rhodes (not just a lefty specialist) and George Sherril would both fit in to the 7th/8th inning high leverage role. Dangle some carrots Colleti, and see what it would take to get Sherril or Rhodes.