| Teams | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Sim Odds | Sim Total Runs | Actual Total Runs | Winner |
| Rays vs Phillies | S.Kazmir vs C.Hamels | Phillies | 61.55% | 9.84 | 7 | Phillies |
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Simulations, World Series Game #5
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Simulation, World Series Game #4
| Teams | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Sim Odds | Sim Total Runs | Actual Total Runs | Winner | ||
| Rays vs Phillies | A.Sonnanstine vs J.Blanton | Phillies | 50.99 | 9.89 | 12 | Phillies | ||
| Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version) | ||||||||
| Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds | ||||
| AccuScore | ||||
| Las Vegas Hilton Odds |
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Simulation for World Series, Game #3
| Teams | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Sim Odds | Sim Total Runs | Actual Total Runs | Winner | ||
| Rays vs Phillies | M.Garza vs J.Moyer | Phillies | 57.03% | 9.69 | 9 | Phillies | ||
| Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version) | ||||||||
| Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds | ||||
| AccuScore | ||||
| Las Vegas Hilton Odds |
What's at stake in Game #3?
| Situation | Rays Odds to win W.S. | Phillies Odds to win W.S. |
| Current Odds | 48.59% | 51.41% |
| Rays Win Game #3 | 70.28% | 29.72% |
| Phillies Win Game #3 | 31.93% | 68.07% |
| Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions. | ||
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Simulation for World Series, Game #2
| Teams | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Sim Odds | Sim Total Runs | Actual Total Runs | Winner | ||
| Phillies vs Rays | B.Myers vs J.Shields | Rays | 63.06% | 9.75 | 6 | Rays | ||
| Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version) | ||||||||
| Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds | ||||
| AccuScore | ||||
| Las Vegas Hilton Odds |
What's riding on tonight's game?
| Situation | Rays Odds to win W.S. | Phillies Odds to win W.S. |
| Current Odds | 46.78% | 53.22% |
| Rays Win Game #2 | 59.97% | 40.03% |
| Phillies Win Game #2 | 35.39% | 74.85% |
| Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions. | ||
Monday, October 20, 2008
Simulation for World Series Game #1
| Teams | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Sim Odds | Sim Total Runs | Actual Total Runs | Winner | ||
| Phillies vs Rays | C.Hamels vs S.Kazmir | Rays | 51.45% | 9.84 | 5 | Phillies | ||
| Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version) | ||||||||
| Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds | ||||
| AccuScore | ||||
| Las Vegas Hilton Odds |
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Simulation for ALCS Game #7
| Teams | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Sim Odds | Sim Total Runs | Actual Total Runs | Winner | ||
| Red Sox vs Rays | J.Lester vs M.Garza | Rays | 50.18% | 9.50 | 4 | Rays | ||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||||
| Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds | ||||
| AccuScore | ||||
| Las Vegas Hilton Odds |
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