Dodgers WAR

WAR or Win Above Replacement, is the favorite method of the sabermetric community in determining the value, measured in the units of wins that a player has over the typical replacement level player. Tango Tiger and the USS Mariner blog both have great write-ups on how to calculate WAR. As an excercise in understanding how to calculate WAR I took to calculating WAR for all of the National League West teams and players. By summing the WAR of all the players on a team and accounting for playing time, one can get an idea of how many wins the team should get.

Please keep in mind that I am no Bill James, so this chart was done to the best of my ability. I do have wiggle room for some of the defense and base running adjustments, but they won't change the values significantly. All of these numbers are based off of 2008 ZIPS Projections and my estimates for playing time, therefore it is not a perfect science.

WAR - Los Angeles Dodgers
Hitters
Player	Playing Time	Park Adj wOBA	Pre-WAR	Pos/Def/BR	WAR	WAR$
R.Martin	0.80	.3537	.9127	3.0/0.0/0.1	3.19	$14.44M
G.Bennett	0.25	.2693	-.9962	3.0/0.0/-0.1	0.48	$2.49M
J.Loney	0.85	.3726	2.006	1.0/0.0/0.1	2.55	$11.64M
M.Sweeney	0.1	.3238	-.8222	1.0/-0.5/-0.1	-0.04	$0.21M
J.Kent	0.70	.3500	.6964	2.0/-0.5/-0.1	1.47	$6.86M
T.Abreu	0.35	.2988	-2.274	2.0/0.0/0.1	-0.06	$0.13M
A.LaRoche	0.60	.3416	.2082	2.0/0.0/0.0	1.32	$6.23M
N.Garciappara	0.50	.3190	-.1.099	2/-0.5/0.0	0.20	$1.28M
R.Furcal	0.85	.3311	-.3989	2.5/0.0/0.1	1.87	$8.63M
A.Ethier	0.65	.3568	1.087	1.5/0.5/0.1	2.07	$9.52M
J.Pierre	0.60	.3084	-1.719	1.5/0.0/1.0	0.47	$2.47M
D.Young	0.25	.3065	-1.829	1.5/-0.5/0.0	-0.21	$-0.51M
A.Jones	0.75	.3592	1.2306	2.5/1.0/0.0	3.55	$16.01M
M.Kemp	0.75	.3611	1.338	1.5/0.5/0.1	2.58	$11.75M
Total					19.46
Pitchers
Player	IP	FIP ERA	PA Lg Ave ERA	RAR	WAR	WAR$
B.Penny	200	3.375	5.135	31.12	2.96	$13.44M
D.Lowe	210	4.105	5.135	24.05	2.29	$10.48M
C.Billingsley	180	4.161	5.135	19.48	1.86	$8.56
H.Kuroda	180	4.067	5.135	21.37	2.04	$9.36M
E.Loaiza	127	4.641	5.135	6.98	0.66	$3.32M
J.Schmidt	82	3.810	5.135	12.08	1.15	$5.46M
H.Guo	78	3.918	5.135	10.55	1.00	$4.82M
T.Saito	66	2.579	5.135	18.75	1.79	$8.26M
J.Broxton	96	2.794	5.135	24.98	2.38	$10.87M
J.Biemel	73	3.967	5.135	9.48	0.90	$4.37M
S.Proctor	93	4.888	5.135	2.55	0.24	$1.47M
R.Seanez	65	4.031	5.135	7.98	0.76	$3.74M
Bullpen	471				7.07451
Rotation	979				10.95968
Total	1450				18.03419

Now let's take a look at how that stacks up with the rest of the NL West teams. Keep in mind that a team comprised only of replacement level players would win about 50 games, therefore to get the total number of wins we need to use the following simple formula (Team WAR = 50 + Offense WAR + Pitching WAR).

NL West - WAR
Team	Hitting WAR	Rotation WAR	Bullpen WAR	Total WAR	Simulator
DBacks	18.44	5.86	13.72	88.03	82.36
Dodgers	19.46	7.07	10.96	87.50	85.88
Rockies	18.67	4.46	6.81	79.95	81.68
Padres	18.03	3.76	8.06	79.84	82.76
Giants	8.26	3.82	9.41	71.49	75.16

AL West - Winter Rankings

AL West - Winter Rankings

Now that the Erik Bedard trade is finalized I can finally finish and publish the AL West rankings. Not surprisingly the Angles finish at the top. Many pundits believe the Mariners are the team if any that could knock off the Angels, especially after the Bedard trade. Well, ZIPS really dislikes the Mariners offense and they finished a surprising last place in this study. The Rangers with a few upgrades to their offense finished a distant second with the A's, who many people have written off because of the players (Haren) they have traded away, finishing 3rd. Since this study does not take playing time or injury possibilities into account you may want to dock the A's a little bit for Rich Harden and the Angels a little bit for a possible pre-season injury to Kelvin Escobar.

Team	LAA	TEX	OAK	SEA	Total
LAA	NA	.5183	.5252	.5466	.5272
TEX	.4817	NA	.5043	.5246	.5033
OAK	.4748	.4957	NA	.5243	.4988
SEA	.4550	.4754	.4757	NA	.4707

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)

Notes: For details of how this simulation study was ran, please see the NL West Rankings post.

NL Central - Best Bullpens

Note: Updated 1/29/08
Time to rank the NL Central bullpens. The method I will use to rank NL Central bullpens is to give each team the same batting lineup and to start each simulated game in the top of the 7th inning with the score tied and the starting pitcher about to be relieved for each team in their opponents half of the 7th inning. This way the only difference between the two teams will be the bullpens. 5000 games are simulated home and away with each team facing each other. Winning percentages are added and then averaged. All games are played in a neutral park environment and of course 2008 ZIPS projections are being used. See the table below for results.

Note: The simulation may output slightly different results if I start in the 6th inning or 8th inning as opposed to the 7th inning. Bullpen depth charts from Rototimes and Yahoo were used in determining bullpen depth chart listings.

Rank	Team	Total
1	STL	.5345
2	HOU	.5122
3	CHC	.4987
4	MIL	.4932
5	PIT	.4848
6	CIN	.4767

No time for an indepth breakdown of these results. If you'd like any further information from this sim study please leave a comment of email me.

AL Central - Winter Rankings

AL Central - Winter Rankings

Next up, the AL Central. The Detroit juggernaught is the pre-season favorite. The addition of Miguel Cabrera along with an already potent lineup and top notch pitching staff will make the Tigers difficult to beat. The Indians may have a chance to do so, but it will take some luck on their part. Sabathia and Carmona are a solid 1-2 but the bottom half of the Indians rotation is suspect. The Twins, with a healthy Liriano should win close to half their games, while the Royals and White Sox will be two of the worst teams in the American League.

Team	DET	CLE	MIN	KC	CWS	Total
DET	NA	.5188	.5268	.5714	.5665	.5459
CLE	.4813	NA	.5073	.5434	.5600	.5230
MIN	.4732	.4927	NA	.5419	.5370	.5112
KC	.4286	.4566	.4681	NA	.5021	.4639
CWS	.4335	.4401	.4630	.4979	NA	.4586

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)