Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
See comments below...

Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix
	Penny	Lowe	Billingsley	Schmidt	Loaiza	Guo	Houlton	Stults	Kuroda	Peavy
Penny	NA	.3403	.3804	.5192	.7853	.7809	1.1192	.8550	.4605	.9946
Lowe	.3403	NA	.3567	.6444	.3758	.8664	.6239	.4291	.2165	1.2509
Billingsley	.3804	.3567	NA	.2876	.4263	.4818	.6902	.5500	.2408	.8788
Schmidt	.5192	.6444	.2876	NA	.6841	.2102	.9839	.8967	.4509	.4811
Loaiza	.7853	.3758	.4263	.6841	NA	.7995	.2323	.1940	.2691	1.3179
Guo	.7809	.8664	.4818	.2102	.7995	NA	1.0784	1.0710	.6094	.4127
Houlton	1.1193	.6239	.6902	.9839	.2323	1.0784	NA	.1662	.5451	1.7185
Stults	.8550	.4291	.5500	.8967	.1940	1.0710	.1662	NA	.4434	1.6733
Kuroda	.4605	.2165	.2408	.4509	.2691	.6094	.5451	.4434	NA	.9795
Peavy	.9946	1.2509	.8788	.4811	1.3179	.4127	1.7185	1.6733	.9795	NA

You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

Rank	Pitchers	Similarity Score
1	Houlton/Stults	.1662
2	Loaiza/Stults	.1940
3	Schmidt/Guo	.2102
4	Lowe/Kuroda	.2165
5	Loaiza/Houlton	.2323
6	Billingsley/Kuroda	.2408
7	Loaiza/Kuroda	.2691
8	Billingsley/Schmidt	.2876
9	Penny/Lowe	.3403
10	Lowe/Billingsley	.3567

2008 Player Projections

Matt Kemp
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	M.Kemp	.322	.365	.508	.873
CHONE	M.Kemp	.289	.337	.467	.804
ZIPS	M.Kemp	.303	.348	.483	.831
Marcel	M.Kemp	.311	.356	.490	.846
PECOTA	M.Kemp	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Jeff Kent
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Kent	.290	.368	.486	.854
CHONE	J.Kent	.273	.356	.452	.808
ZIPS	J.Kent	.268	.352	.444	.796
Marcel	J.Kent	.281	.362	.464	.826
PECOTA	J.Kent	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andre Ethier
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Ethier	.304	.371	.477	.847
CHONE	A.Ethier	.279	.348	.436	.784
ZIPS	A.Ethier	.288	.357	.459	.816
Marcel	A.Ethier	.295	.361	.466	.827
PECOTA	A.Ethier	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Russell Martin
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Martin	.292	.379	.456	.835
CHONE	R.Martin	.282	.376	.438	.814
ZIPS	R.Martin	.280	.365	.432	.797
Marcel	R.Martin	.293	.371	.459	.830
PECOTA	R.Martin	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andy LaRoche
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.LaRoche	.275	.367	.458	.825
CHONE	A.LaRoche	.268	.356	.455	.811
ZIPS	A.LaRoche	.256	.343	.431	.774
Marcel	A.LaRoche	.265	.354	.413	.767
PECOTA	A.LaRoche	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
James Loney
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Loney	.302	.359	.465	.823
CHONE	J.Loney	.284	.347	.431	.778
ZIPS	J.Loney	.296	.350	.470	.820
Marcel	J.Loney	.315	.372	.514	.886
PECOTA	J.Loney	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andruw Jones
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Jones	.253	.343	.491	.834
CHONE	A.Jones	.249	.345	.491	.836
ZIPS	A.Jones	.249	.344	.503	.847
Marcel	A.Jones	.248	.337	.479	.816
PECOTA	A.Jones	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Nomar Garciappara
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	N.Garciappara	.292	.347	.451	.798
CHONE	N.Garciappara	.282	.340	.423	.763
ZIPS	N.Garciappara	.268	.329	.384	.713
Marcel	N.Garciappara	.281	.336	.425	.761
PECOTA	N.Garciappara	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Rafael Furcal
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Furcal	.286	.352	.403	.755
CHONE	R.Furcal	.277	.348	.394	.742
ZIPS	R.Furcal	.276	.346	.387	.733
Marcel	R.Furcal	.281	.348	.407	.755
PECOTA	R.Furcal	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Delwyn Young
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
CHONE	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
ZIPS	D.Young	.255	.295	.408	.703
Marcel	D.Young	.286	.350	.464	.815
PECOTA	D.Young	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Tony Abreu
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	T.Abreu	.288	.332	.399	.731
CHONE	T.Abreu	.275	.321	.394	.715
ZIPS	T.Abreu	.267	.313	.362	.675
Marcel	T.Abreu	.280	.337	.433	.770
PECOTA	T.Abreu	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Juan Pierre
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Pierre	.298	.343	.361	.703
CHONE	J.Pierre	.288	.333	.363	.696
ZIPS	J.Pierre	.277	.318	.347	.665
Marcel	J.Pierre	.284	.329	.370	.699
PECOTA	J.Pierre	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

Pitchers

Brad Penny
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	195	6.42	2.24	0.39	0.74	3.83	1.33
CHONE	195	6.18	1.97	0.34	0.83	4.11	1.38
ZIPS	200	6.39	2.33	0.41	0.72	3.82	1.33
Baseball HQ	203	6.10	1.96	0.33	0.9	3.90	1.36
Derek Lowe
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	212	5.69	1.96	0.34	0.81	3.78	1.31
CHONE	207	5.96	2.21	0.36	0.78	3.70	1.30
ZIPS	210	5.79	2.33	0.37	0.94	3.99	1.30
Baseball HQ	218	5.90	2.31	0.37	0.7	3.84	1.31
Chad Billingsley
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	185	8.66	2.09	0.50	0.88	3.79	1.35
CHONE	147	8.51	2.11	0.50	1.04	3.98	1.37
ZIPS	180	7.70	1.97	0.42	0.95	4.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	189	8.30	2.05	0.47	0.8	3.52	1.32
Jason Schmidt
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	145	8.63	2.48	0.57	0.81	3.41	1.25
CHONE	117	7.54	1.92	0.40	1.08	4.15	1.38
ZIPS	119	8.55	2.26	0.53	0.91	4.08	1.36
Baseball HQ	145	7.8	1.92	0.41	1.20	4.41	1.41
Esteban Loaiza
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	120	6.15	2.41	0.40	1.05	4.35	1.39
CHONE	126	5.93	1.93	0.32	1.14	4.57	1.40
ZIPS	127	6.38	1.48	0.37	1.28	4.89	1.43
Baseball HQ	174	4.80	1.48	0.17	1.20	4.91	1.51
Hiroki Kuroda
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	181	6.81	2.80	0.49	1.04	3.78	1.23
ZIPS	180	5.70	3.08	0.43	1.05	3.92	1.24
Baseball HQ	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
HongZhi Guo
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	66	9.00	2.28	0.56	0.95	4.09	1.38
ZIPS	78	9.23	2.42	0.60	1.04	4.38	1.37
Baseball HQ	73	10.90	2.51	0.73	0.60	4.32	1.35
D.J. Houlton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	34	6.88	2.00	0.38	1.32	4.76	1.44
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	138	6.37	1.83	0.32	1.50	5.15	1.46
Baseball HQ	44	5.50	1.35	0.16	1.40	5.32	1.84
Eric Stults
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	53	7.30	2.05	0.42	1.02	5.26	1.57
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	147	6.31	1.81	0.31	1.29	5.14	1.50
Baseball HQ	29	6.20	1.54	0.24	0.60	4.34	1.52
Takashi Saito
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	68	9.00	3.78	0.74	0.93	3.31	1.13
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	66	10.91	4.44	0.94	0.68	2.05	1.00
Baseball HQ	58	10.4	4.19	0.88	0.90	2.79	1.03
Jonathon Broxton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	83	11.17	3.32	0.87	0.54	3.04	1.19
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	96	10.7	3.97	0.90	0.75	2.91	1.14
Baseball HQ	58	10.9	3.89	0.90	0.60	2.64	1.12
Joe Beimel
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	66	5.05	1.37	0.15	0.68	4.09	1.45
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	73	5.18	1.68	0.23	0.62	3.95	1.37
Baseball HQ	44	4.90	1.50	0.18	0.80	4.30	1.36
Eric Hull
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	8.25	2.06	0.47	0.88	4.00	1.39
Baseball HQ	29	8.10	1.86	0.41	0.60	3.72	1.72
Rudy Seanez
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	78	9.69	2.33	0.62	1.04	4.15	1.41
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	65	9.28	2.39	0.60	1.11	4.15	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	8.20	2.00	0.45	1.00	3.90	1.36
Scott Proctor
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	80	7.65	2.06	0.44	1.46	4.50	1.38
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	93	8.13	2.15	0.48	1.55	4.65	1.40
Baseball HQ	58	6.80	1.69	0.31	1.40	4.34	1.48
Jonathon Meloan
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	9.50	2.38	0.61	1.75	5.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	9.80	2.09	0.57	1.00	3.89	1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study