November 1st, World Series Game #4
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Yankees | Phillies | C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton | Yankees | 62.26% | 62.51% | 65% | NYA 7-4 |
Vegas Odds
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Start Spreading The News...
Vegas Odds
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Trick Or Treat Baseball
October 31st, World Series Game #3
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Yankees | Phillies | A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels | Yankees | 52.83% | 46.70% | 52% | NYA 8-5 |
Vegas Odds
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Who's Your Daddy
October 29th, World Series Game #2
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Phillies | Yankees | P.Martinez vs A.Burnett | Yankees | 66.10% | 58.48% | 58% | NYA 3-1 |
Vegas Odds
Monday, October 26, 2009
World Series, Tale Of The Tape
There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.
| Pos | Yankees | WAR/650PA | Phillies | WAR/650PA |
| C | J.Posada | 5.94 | C.Ruiz | 3.77 |
| 1B | M.Teixeira | 4.78 | R.Howard | 4.53 |
| 2B | R.Cano | 4.15 | C.Utley | 7.29 |
| 3B | A.Rodriguez | 5.59 | P.Feliz | 1.25 |
| SS | D.Jeter | 6.72 | J.Rollins | 2.15 |
| LF | J.Damon | 2.91 | R.Ibanez | 4.72 |
| CF | M.Cabrera | 1.93 | S.Victorino | 3.18 |
| RF | N.Swisher | 3.96 | J.Werth | 4.52 |
| DH | H.Matsui | 2.95 | B.Francisco | 2.27 |
| Total (DH) | 38.92 | 33.67 | ||
| Total (No DH) | 35.97 | 31.41 |
So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
When Two Tribes Go To War
October 28th, World Series Game #1
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Phillies | Yankees | C.Lee vs C.Sabathia | Yankees | 60.78% | 56.96% | 67% | PHI 6-1 |
Vegas Odds
Thursday, October 22, 2009
End Of The Line
October 25th, ALCS Game #6
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Angels | Yankees | J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte | Yankees | 63.37% | 67.25% | 57% | NYA 5-2 |
Vegas Odds
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
El Fin
October 22nd, ALCS Game #5
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Yankees | Angels | A.Burnett vs J.Lackey | Angels | 53.49% | 55.25% | 54% | LAA 7-6 |
Vegas Odds
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Sending Out An S.O.S.
October 21st, NLCS
Click Here, To Help Rescue The Dodgers Season!!!
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Dodgers | Phillies | V.Padilla vs C.Hamels | Phillies | 56.71% | 59.88% | 55% | PHI 10-4 |
Vegas Odds
Monday, October 19, 2009
Mountain Of Dreams
October 20th, ALCS
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Yankees | Angels | C.Sabathia vs S.Kazmir | Yankees | 56.14% | 56.32% | 60% | NYA 10-1 |
Vegas Odds
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Back, Meet Wall.
October 19th, LCS
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Dodgers | Phillies | R.Wolf vs J.Blanton | Phillies | 55.16% | 48.98% | 49% | PHI 5-4 |
| Yankees | Angels | A.Pettitte vs J.Weaver | Angels | 55.95% | 50.41% | 60% | LAA 5-4 |
Vegas Odds
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Phillie Killer
October 18th, ALCS
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Dodgers | Phillies | H.Kuroda vs C.Lee | Phillies | 63.79% | 58.94% | 57% | PHI 11-0 |
Vegas Odds
Friday, October 16, 2009
Start Spreading The News
October 17th, ALCS
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Angels | Yankees | J.Saunders vs A.Burnett | Yankees | 63.77% | 64.64% | 60% | NYA 4-3 |
Vegas Odds
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Only A Phillie Walks In LA
October 16th, LCS
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Phillies | Dodgers | P.Martinez vs V.Padilla | Dodgers | 57.63% | 56.70% | 51% | LAN 2-1 |
| Angels | Yankees | J.Lackey vs C.Sabathia | Yankees | 62.12% | 66.28% | 68% | NYA 4-1 |
Vegas Odds
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Dodgers Play Their Ace
October 15th, Game #1 NLCS
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Phillies | Dodgers | C.Hamels vs C.Kershaw | Dodgers | 56.90% | 62.55% | 51% | PHI 8-6 |
Vegas Odds
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Who Can It Be Now?
October 12th, Playoffs
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Phillies | Rockies | C.Lee vs U.Jimenez | Rockies | 51.69% | 48.41% | 46% | PHI 5-4 |
Vegas Odds
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Redbirds Get The Broom Handle
October 11th, Playoffs
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Yankees | Twins | A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano | Yankees | 62.85% | 51.67% | 57% | NYA 4-1 |
| Angels | Red Sox | S.Kazmir vs C.Buchholz | Red Sox | 57.26% | 55.29% | 51% | LAA 7-6 |
| Phillies | Rockies | J.Happ vs J.Hammel | Phillies | 51.46% | 45.87% | 48% | TBD |
Vegas Odds
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Happy Hollidays Dodgers Fans
October 9th, Playoffs
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Twins | Yankees | N.Blackburn vs A.Burnett | Yankees | 74.03% | 62.90% | TBD | TBD |
| Red Sox | Angels | J.Beckett vs J.Weaver | Red Sox | TBD | 52.10% | TBD | TBD |
Vegas Odds
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Where The Deer And The Bison Play
October 8th, Playoffs
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Cardinals | Dodgers | A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw | Cardinals | 53.70% | 43.91% | 53% | LAN 3-2 |
| Rockies | Phillies | A.Cook vs C.Hamels | Phillies | 60.16% | 66.04% | 64% | COL 5-4 |
| Red Sox | Angels | J.Lester vs J.Lackey | Red Sox | 51.21% | 51.49% | 45% | LAA 5-0 |
Vegas Odds
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Ready To Rumble
October 7th, Playoffs
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Cardinals | Dodgers | C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf | Cardinals | 56.90% | 51.99% | 53% | LAN 5-3 |
| Rockies | Phillies | U.Jimenez vs C.Lee | Phillies | 56.14% | 62.26% | 60% | PHI 5-1 |
| Twins | Yankees | B.Duensing vs C.Sabathia | Yankees | 74.03% | 68.30% | 76% | NYA 7-2 |
Vegas Odds
Friday, October 02, 2009
And Then There Were Two Games Left
October 3nd, Meaningful Games
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Rockies | Dodgers | J.de la Rosa vs C.Kershaw | Dodgers | 56.33% | 64.71% | 60% | LAN 5-0 |
| Marlins | Phillies | A.Sanchez vs C.Hamels | Phillies | 67.32% | 65.13% | 69% | FLA 4-3 |
| Brewers | Cardinals | C.Villanueva vs K.Lohse | Cardinals | 57.81% | 56.11% | 55% | MIL 5-4 |
Vegas Odds
Thursday, October 01, 2009
The Long And Winding Road To Clinching
October 2nd, Meaningful Games
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Xeifrank Win Prob | AccuScore Win Prob | Actual |
| Rockies | Dodgers | U.Jimenez vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 50.98% | 56.46% | 71% | COL 4-3 |
| Marlins | Phillies | R.VandenHurk vs J.Blanton | Phillies | 62.55% | 60.95% | 58% | FLA 7-2 |
| Brewers | Cardinals | J.Suppan vs A.Wainwright | Cardinals | 65.46% | 71.79% | 69% | MIL 12-6 |
Vegas Odds
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