| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Diamondbacks | Dodgers | B.Buckner vs H.Kuroda | Dodgers | 63.37% | 9.3 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, June 1st
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Dodgers vs Cubs, May 31st
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Cubs | E.Milton vs S.Marshall | Cubs | 58.16% | 9.1 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
All-Star Manny
Not one to usually give a rats behind about off the field baseball stories, I would like to chime in about the recent popular topic of whether or not Manny Ramirez should play in the all-star game if voted in by the fans.
Let me get a couple of things out of the way from both sides of the argument before I give my opinion. First off, there is no rule against a player playing in the all-star game if he was suspended during the season. Secondly, the fans historically have made many poor choices in electing which players start for the NL and AL teams. You want the fans to vote, then live with the occasional bad choices. Thirdly, there is a rule in place that says that the league that wins the all-star game receives home field advantage during the World Series. Yes, this is a very lame rule, but it's a rule nonetheless. Home field advantage is historically between 4 and 5%, so of course the extra game at home helps.
My opinion is that Manny doesn't deserve to be voted into the all-star game. That part is probably a no-brainer. But if voted in, he 'should' play and should not be pressured not to play. As long as the rule exists that whichever league wins the all-star game gets home field advantage during the World Series, then each league should make as their top priority winning the all-star game, aka - putting your best players on the team.
Sure Giants, Nationals, Rockies and Astros fans probably don't care, because they have no shot at going to the World Series, but it's not fair to those teams trying to win the all-star game to not have one of their best players just because he did something wrong and was suspended for 50 games. Either A) get rid of the stupid winner gets home field advantage rule, or B) have a rule that is already in place stating that suspended players cannot play in the all-star game. Until either of those take place, then let the guy play if the fans happen to vote him in or the manager selects him as a reserve.
Let me get a couple of things out of the way from both sides of the argument before I give my opinion. First off, there is no rule against a player playing in the all-star game if he was suspended during the season. Secondly, the fans historically have made many poor choices in electing which players start for the NL and AL teams. You want the fans to vote, then live with the occasional bad choices. Thirdly, there is a rule in place that says that the league that wins the all-star game receives home field advantage during the World Series. Yes, this is a very lame rule, but it's a rule nonetheless. Home field advantage is historically between 4 and 5%, so of course the extra game at home helps.
My opinion is that Manny doesn't deserve to be voted into the all-star game. That part is probably a no-brainer. But if voted in, he 'should' play and should not be pressured not to play. As long as the rule exists that whichever league wins the all-star game gets home field advantage during the World Series, then each league should make as their top priority winning the all-star game, aka - putting your best players on the team.
Sure Giants, Nationals, Rockies and Astros fans probably don't care, because they have no shot at going to the World Series, but it's not fair to those teams trying to win the all-star game to not have one of their best players just because he did something wrong and was suspended for 50 games. Either A) get rid of the stupid winner gets home field advantage rule, or B) have a rule that is already in place stating that suspended players cannot play in the all-star game. Until either of those take place, then let the guy play if the fans happen to vote him in or the manager selects him as a reserve.
Dodgers vs Cubs, May 30th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Cubs | E.Stults vs R.Dempster | Cubs | 58.51% | 9.8 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Dodgers vs Cubs, May 29th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Cubs | C.Billingsley vs T.Lilly | Cubs | 50.50% | 7.9 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Dodgers vs Cubs, May 28th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Cubs | R.Wolf vs R.Wells | Cubs | 54.55% | 9.0 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Dodgers / Cubs, Series Preview
The Dodgers and Cubs both enter this game as teams of streaks. Not so much for their current modest win streaks (Dodgers 3, Cubs 2), but more for their recent streaks. The Cubs previous road trip saw them lose all 6 games, including 2 from a previous home stand, which totalled an 8 game losing streak. That road trip saw the Cubs score 5 runs in 6 games. The Dodgers on the otherhand have a 13 game home winning streak to their 2009 resume. More recently, the Dodgers just came off an impressive three game sweep of the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field and have won 11 of their last 15 games. The Dodgers have only played three games vs the NL Central so far this year, and sport a record of 1-2 (@ HOU) in those three games. The NL Central teams will pose a big challenge for the Dodgers even though the Dodgers won't see another NL Central team until July 10th when the Dodgers visit Milwaukee in the dead of the summer.
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 2.0
1. 2B-Orlando Hudson 2.0
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.6
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Chad Billingsley 2.0
2. *Randy Wolf 1.0
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.8
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.3
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.6
3. Cory Wade 0.3
Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.4
2. LF-Juan Pierre 1.4
3. 3B-Mark Loretta 1.0
Top Three Cubs Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Kosuke Fukudome 1.8
2. SS-Ryan Theriot 1.5
3. 3B-Aramis Ramirez 0.8
Top Three Cubs Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Carlos Zambrano 1.1
2. *Ryan Dempster 0.8
3. *Ted Lilly 0.8
Top Three Cubs Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Angel Guzman 0.3
2. Luis Vizcaino 0.1
3. Carlos Marmol 0.1
Top Three Cubs Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. SS-Ryan Theriot 4.2
2. RF-Kosuke Fukudome 2.8
3. 2B-Mike Fontenot 2.1
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
This years version of the Cubs has not been all that impressive. They have struggled to score runs, especially on their previous road trip. They will have to put up some runs to compete with the Dodgers in this series. The Cubs starting pitching has been decent, but they obviously miss Rich Harden who is on the 15-Day DL with a lower back strain. The Cubs are a better fielding team than the Dodgers, their best fielder so far this year being shortstop Ryan Theriot. Still, Matt Kemp is the best fielder on either team. The most glaring weakness of this Cubs team is their bullpen and it's propensity for walking batters (BB/9: C.Marmol 7.71, A.Heilman 6.86, D.Patton 6.28, K.Gregg 5.59). An exciting player to watch in this series is RF-Jake Fox for the Cubs, who was just recently called up after putting up historically great numbers in AAA (Fangraphs: Free Jake Fox).
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 11-4
Last 15 Games, Cubs: 7-8
Last 5 Games, Dodgers: 4-1
Last 15 Games, Cubs: 7-8
Series Pitching Matchups
G1: R.Wolf vs R.Wells
G2: C.Billingsley vs T.Lilly
G3: E.Stults vs R.Dempster
G4: E.Milton vs S.Marshall
Source for stats: Fangraphs
| Team | Hitting | Arm | Range R | Error R | Overall Fielding | SP | RP | Overall Pitching | Team Total |
| Units | RAR | NL Rank | NL Rank | NL Rank | UZR | RAR | RAR | WAR | WAR |
| Dodgers | 36.8 | -4.9 | 44.1 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 15.4 | |||
| Cubs | -20.4 | 3.5 | 41.8 | -2.5 | 4.0 | 7.9 | |||
| Dodgers NL Rank | 1st | 15th | 10th | 6th | 11th | 5th | 4th | 4th | 1st |
| Cubs NL Rank | 12th | 9th | 6th | 4th | 5th | 6th | 14th | 9th | 11th |
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 2.0
1. 2B-Orlando Hudson 2.0
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.6
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Chad Billingsley 2.0
2. *Randy Wolf 1.0
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.8
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.3
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.6
3. Cory Wade 0.3
Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.4
2. LF-Juan Pierre 1.4
3. 3B-Mark Loretta 1.0
Top Three Cubs Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Kosuke Fukudome 1.8
2. SS-Ryan Theriot 1.5
3. 3B-Aramis Ramirez 0.8
Top Three Cubs Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Carlos Zambrano 1.1
2. *Ryan Dempster 0.8
3. *Ted Lilly 0.8
Top Three Cubs Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Angel Guzman 0.3
2. Luis Vizcaino 0.1
3. Carlos Marmol 0.1
Top Three Cubs Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. SS-Ryan Theriot 4.2
2. RF-Kosuke Fukudome 2.8
3. 2B-Mike Fontenot 2.1
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
This years version of the Cubs has not been all that impressive. They have struggled to score runs, especially on their previous road trip. They will have to put up some runs to compete with the Dodgers in this series. The Cubs starting pitching has been decent, but they obviously miss Rich Harden who is on the 15-Day DL with a lower back strain. The Cubs are a better fielding team than the Dodgers, their best fielder so far this year being shortstop Ryan Theriot. Still, Matt Kemp is the best fielder on either team. The most glaring weakness of this Cubs team is their bullpen and it's propensity for walking batters (BB/9: C.Marmol 7.71, A.Heilman 6.86, D.Patton 6.28, K.Gregg 5.59). An exciting player to watch in this series is RF-Jake Fox for the Cubs, who was just recently called up after putting up historically great numbers in AAA (Fangraphs: Free Jake Fox).
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 11-4
Last 15 Games, Cubs: 7-8
Last 5 Games, Dodgers: 4-1
Last 15 Games, Cubs: 7-8
Series Pitching Matchups
G1: R.Wolf vs R.Wells
G2: C.Billingsley vs T.Lilly
G3: E.Stults vs R.Dempster
G4: E.Milton vs S.Marshall
Source for stats: Fangraphs
Riddle Me This
... let's suppose your best hitter goes down for whatever reason. Let's say he is your power hitting left fielder in this example. While he is unavailable to play, his backup, the teams fourth outfielder plays in his place and does extremely well. He becomes one of your teams most productive hitters and one of the reasons why your team is continuing to win. Then after... let's call it 50 games, your best hitter comes back. What do you do? Let's say your fourth outfielder really can only play left field because he has a poor throwing arm, but could probably sub in CF for a game or two a month. Then what? If you were in the managers shoes, what would you do? The options are plenty, some obviously better than others. But you want to make sure you give your team the best chance of winning. Well, for namesakes let's call this situation "The Juan Pierre Conundrum" and take a look at what some of the options are. And yes, the joke is over I am talking about Juan Pierre and the situation the Dodgers could very well find themselves in a month from now.
Option I: Platoon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre, giving each of them equal amounts of playing time.
Pros: Juan Pierre's hot bat remains in the lineup two out of every three games.
Cons: Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are better offensively and defensively than Juan Pierre and this weakens your team.
Option II: Platoon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre, but only giving Juan Pierre one and on some occasions two starts per week.
Pros: Your fielding your best players most of the time, Juan Pierre still gets some playing time, and your starting three outfielders will need some rest anyways.
Cons: Sticking a hot bat on the bench and recently Juan Pierre's trade value has risen and he could possibly fetch you some depth at a different position.
Option III: Trade Pierre for pitching depth.
Pros: The Dodgers could use another strong arm out of the bullpen or 4th starter level pitcher. Juan is replaceable with what the Dodgers have in the minors (X.Paul, J.Hoffman, J.Repko). Plus if the Dodgers could get a favorable trade, they could sell high on Pierre and dump some of the salary he is sucking from this team.
Cons: It's all about depth. You never know if/when an outfielder will get hurt or suspended again. Pierre is too valuable as a backup outfielder to get rid of.
Option IV: Move Andre Ethier to first base.
Pros: Gets Juan Pierre more at-bats and moves either Ethier or Loney to the bench until they start hitting.
Cons:Can Ethier even play first base? You would have to LH firstbasemen, not an ideal platoon situation. You would have a downgrade defensively, as Pierre would then move to CF, knocking Matt Kemp over to RF.
Option V: Juan Pierre goes back to his old role of 4th outfielder, makes a few spot starts and provides insurance should one of the starting outfielders gets hurt.
Pros: Most likely to be putting your best team on the field both offensively and defensively. Plus it's always nice to have a fourth outfielder who has been putting up all-star numbers this year.
Cons: A player who has been putting up all-star numbers is now relegated to the bench. Passing by a golden opportunity to trade Juan Pierre and his huge anchor of a contract.
Well, these are the options I came up with off the top of my head, I am sure there are more options and even slight variations of the ones I've mentioned. Please feel free to leave some other options in the comments section, or chime in on what you would do if you were the manager or GM.
Some of the themes in the options listed above are the importance of playing your best players, as well as resting them appropriately so they can continue to be your best players. Depth, and how important it is to have players who can fill in adequately should someone get hurt or in the Dodgers case suspended is something the Dodgers are currently benefiting from. Why throw that out the window? Then you have the 500lb gorilla, Juan Pierre's contract, which has been a burden to the Dodgers. A Juan Pierre who puts up all-star type numbers should have some trade value now. Perhaps not alot, but certainly much more than he had to start the season with. You may never get another chance to sell this high on Juan Pierre. There is some risk as well as reward to any path the Dodgers choose to take. Obviously, this could all become moot, if the clock strikes twelve on Juan Pierre's hot start to the season and he turns back into the pumpkin he has been the previous two years for the Dodgers. Remember, this is a player with a .434 BABIP and a career BABIP of .320. The bubble will eventually burst, the question is will it slowly seep or explode into a sea of ground ball outs.
Option I: Platoon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre, giving each of them equal amounts of playing time.
Pros: Juan Pierre's hot bat remains in the lineup two out of every three games.
Cons: Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are better offensively and defensively than Juan Pierre and this weakens your team.
Option II: Platoon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre, but only giving Juan Pierre one and on some occasions two starts per week.
Pros: Your fielding your best players most of the time, Juan Pierre still gets some playing time, and your starting three outfielders will need some rest anyways.
Cons: Sticking a hot bat on the bench and recently Juan Pierre's trade value has risen and he could possibly fetch you some depth at a different position.
Option III: Trade Pierre for pitching depth.
Pros: The Dodgers could use another strong arm out of the bullpen or 4th starter level pitcher. Juan is replaceable with what the Dodgers have in the minors (X.Paul, J.Hoffman, J.Repko). Plus if the Dodgers could get a favorable trade, they could sell high on Pierre and dump some of the salary he is sucking from this team.
Cons: It's all about depth. You never know if/when an outfielder will get hurt or suspended again. Pierre is too valuable as a backup outfielder to get rid of.
Option IV: Move Andre Ethier to first base.
Pros: Gets Juan Pierre more at-bats and moves either Ethier or Loney to the bench until they start hitting.
Cons:Can Ethier even play first base? You would have to LH firstbasemen, not an ideal platoon situation. You would have a downgrade defensively, as Pierre would then move to CF, knocking Matt Kemp over to RF.
Option V: Juan Pierre goes back to his old role of 4th outfielder, makes a few spot starts and provides insurance should one of the starting outfielders gets hurt.
Pros: Most likely to be putting your best team on the field both offensively and defensively. Plus it's always nice to have a fourth outfielder who has been putting up all-star numbers this year.
Cons: A player who has been putting up all-star numbers is now relegated to the bench. Passing by a golden opportunity to trade Juan Pierre and his huge anchor of a contract.
Well, these are the options I came up with off the top of my head, I am sure there are more options and even slight variations of the ones I've mentioned. Please feel free to leave some other options in the comments section, or chime in on what you would do if you were the manager or GM.
Some of the themes in the options listed above are the importance of playing your best players, as well as resting them appropriately so they can continue to be your best players. Depth, and how important it is to have players who can fill in adequately should someone get hurt or in the Dodgers case suspended is something the Dodgers are currently benefiting from. Why throw that out the window? Then you have the 500lb gorilla, Juan Pierre's contract, which has been a burden to the Dodgers. A Juan Pierre who puts up all-star type numbers should have some trade value now. Perhaps not alot, but certainly much more than he had to start the season with. You may never get another chance to sell this high on Juan Pierre. There is some risk as well as reward to any path the Dodgers choose to take. Obviously, this could all become moot, if the clock strikes twelve on Juan Pierre's hot start to the season and he turns back into the pumpkin he has been the previous two years for the Dodgers. Remember, this is a player with a .434 BABIP and a career BABIP of .320. The bubble will eventually burst, the question is will it slowly seep or explode into a sea of ground ball outs.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Dodgers vs Rockies, May 27th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Rockies | C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez | Rockies | 57.81% | 9.3 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Taking The Extra Base
A Look Around The Dodger Blogosphere
Jon Weisman's book, 100 Things Dodger Fans Should Know And Do Before They Die, was highlighted by KCAL Channel 9. A great gift for any Dodger fan. Buy the book! Video link
Congratulations to the wonderful Dodger blog True Blue LA, which recently surpassed the 1,000 member mark. Co-moderator Eric Stephens points out that the Dodgers have drawn the most walks of any team in baseball with 217. The Dodger walk gap is +17, which is good for just under half a win.
Orel of Sons of Steve Garvey blog fame, had a great time in the Dodgers press box for a recent game. I may try this for a game or two later in the season, so thanks for helping blaze the trail Orel and not spilling any Nachos in the blog spot.
Tony Jackson over at LA Dodger Talk, says "that Jason Schmidt’s rehab has been shut down because of “discomfort” he felt in his shoulder". Can we just give up on Jason and make him a special assistant to the General Manager? I'm sure Bill Mueller, Lee Elia and company are getting lonely.
Are wedding bells in store for Casey Blake and Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness blog? Apparently not, but MSTI does a great job pointing out how Casey Blake has been carrying the load since Manny was suspended.
And last but not least, Blue Heaven, shows off a recent college baseball workout (video) for some of the MLB scouts in attendance.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Buying Into The BABIP Babble
Hitting, pitching, fielding and a little bit of luck, well actually more than a little bit of luck win baseball games. One part of the equation when it comes to luck, is where a batted ball drops into play. While a line drive may end up in a fielders glove, solely because the ball was hit right at him, a blooper may fall in for a single or double because it landed in no mans land. One of the stats that shows alot of this batted ball luck is BABIP (Batting average on ball in play). For almost all pitchers this stat has been proven to be luck driven, not skill driven. Most pitchers will see their BABIP against hover around .300. With the luckier pitchers seeing their BABIP against, quite a bit lower than this figure, and the unlucky pitchers seeing their BABIP against, quite a bit higher. For example, for pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched this year, the luckiest AL and NL pitchers determined by BABIP against are Ross Ohlendorf (PIT, 0.235) and Matt Garza (TB, 0.243). On the other end of the slate, the unluckiest NL and AL pitchers have been John Lester (BOS, 0.386) and Tim Lincecum (SF, 0.382).
Hitters on the otherhand are said to have more control over their BABIP, through such things as line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates, speed as well as park factors. Speed allows quick runners the extra advantage of being able to beat out a groundball hit in the infield. BABIP for hitters has proven to be a somewhat repeatable skill. So how are the Dodgers doing as a team when it comes to BABIP for their hitters? They come in at a lofty clip of 0.342! That is a full 0.015 points higher than the next team (TB, 0.327). So are the Dodgers hitters just incredibly lucky this year? One would think so, atleast to a certain degree... so let's take a look at which Dodger players are bringing up the BABIP and if it looks sustainable.
So it appears that all these hitters (except for the amazing Matt Kemp) have their BABIP well over their career norms. A steady rise in BABIP this far into a career, outside of the steroid era isn't something likely to be sustainable. We may be seeing an amazing start of the season hitting-wise by this group of Dodgers, that very likely will regress back towards their career norms. Then the question arises, what would the "Runs Created" column look like if we were to regress all of these players BABIP to their exact career norm numbers. This can be easily done by taking each players 2009 distribution/ratio of hits, then modifying the BABIP, which in turn would spit out a new tally of singles, doubles and triples for each player. The "Runs Created" for each player (OBP*SLG*AB) then gets recalculated for each player.
First off, wow 30.7 runs right there! Let's hope Juan Pierre and Orlando Hudson take their time turning back into pumpkins. Keep in mind that I am only looking at the luckiest group of Dodger hitters, there are likely a few runs that need to be added to the other side of the ledger, though nothing nearing the 30.7 total you see here. What would 30.7 runs mean to this Dodger team? How would it effect their win/loss total. For that answer we can compare the Dodgers current Pythagorean record to one that has 30.7 less runs scored. The Dodgers current Pythagorean winning percentage is .675, and adjusted down 30.7 runs it would become .618. Over the 46 games the Dodgers have played so far, that would be a loss of 2.6 wins.
The Dodgers hitting is bound for a pretty strong regression, let's just hope the amazing starting pitching can keep it's current pace. The Dodgers probably feel pretty safe, leading the Padres who aren't sure if they are a contender or in the midst of a fire sale by 7-1/2 games. It's still early, the Dodgers have been lucky hitting wise, but they are still good enough and the rest of the division bad enough that it probably still doesn't matter. I would like to revisit this later in the season.
Hitters on the otherhand are said to have more control over their BABIP, through such things as line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates, speed as well as park factors. Speed allows quick runners the extra advantage of being able to beat out a groundball hit in the infield. BABIP for hitters has proven to be a somewhat repeatable skill. So how are the Dodgers doing as a team when it comes to BABIP for their hitters? They come in at a lofty clip of 0.342! That is a full 0.015 points higher than the next team (TB, 0.327). So are the Dodgers hitters just incredibly lucky this year? One would think so, atleast to a certain degree... so let's take a look at which Dodger players are bringing up the BABIP and if it looks sustainable.
| Player | 2009 BABIP | Career BABIP | 2009 Runs Created |
| Juan Pierre | 0.412 | 0.319 | 24.2 |
| Orlando Hudson | 0.400 | 0.323 | 38.7 |
| Mark Loretta | 0.389 | 0.321 | 7.4 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.388 | 0.378 | 28.9 |
| Manny Ramirez | 0.377 | 0.345 | 29.0 |
| Casey Blake | 0.346 | 0.307 | 31.6 |
| Russell Martin | 0.339 | 0.316 | 18.6 |
So it appears that all these hitters (except for the amazing Matt Kemp) have their BABIP well over their career norms. A steady rise in BABIP this far into a career, outside of the steroid era isn't something likely to be sustainable. We may be seeing an amazing start of the season hitting-wise by this group of Dodgers, that very likely will regress back towards their career norms. Then the question arises, what would the "Runs Created" column look like if we were to regress all of these players BABIP to their exact career norm numbers. This can be easily done by taking each players 2009 distribution/ratio of hits, then modifying the BABIP, which in turn would spit out a new tally of singles, doubles and triples for each player. The "Runs Created" for each player (OBP*SLG*AB) then gets recalculated for each player.
| Player | 09 Runs Created | Regressed 09 Runs Created |
| Juan Pierre | 24.2 | 15.6 |
| Orlando Hudson | 38.7 | 27.9 |
| Mark Loretta | 7.4 | 5.5 |
| Matt Kemp | 28.9 | 27.8 |
| Manny Ramirez | 29.0 | 26.5 |
| Casey Blake | 31.6 | 27.7 |
| Russell Martin | 18.6 | 16.7 |
First off, wow 30.7 runs right there! Let's hope Juan Pierre and Orlando Hudson take their time turning back into pumpkins. Keep in mind that I am only looking at the luckiest group of Dodger hitters, there are likely a few runs that need to be added to the other side of the ledger, though nothing nearing the 30.7 total you see here. What would 30.7 runs mean to this Dodger team? How would it effect their win/loss total. For that answer we can compare the Dodgers current Pythagorean record to one that has 30.7 less runs scored. The Dodgers current Pythagorean winning percentage is .675, and adjusted down 30.7 runs it would become .618. Over the 46 games the Dodgers have played so far, that would be a loss of 2.6 wins.
The Dodgers hitting is bound for a pretty strong regression, let's just hope the amazing starting pitching can keep it's current pace. The Dodgers probably feel pretty safe, leading the Padres who aren't sure if they are a contender or in the midst of a fire sale by 7-1/2 games. It's still early, the Dodgers have been lucky hitting wise, but they are still good enough and the rest of the division bad enough that it probably still doesn't matter. I would like to revisit this later in the season.
Dodgers vs Rockies, May 26th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Rockies | E.Milton vs A.Cook | Rockies | 59.35% | 10.4 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Dodgers vs Rockies, May 25th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Rockies | E.Stults vs J.de la Rosa | Rockies | 57.08% | 10.7 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Dodgers / Rockies Series Preview
Interleague play is over for the time being and it's back to the NL West competition for the Dodgers. Next up is a three game road series against the last place Rockies. The Rockies might be the last place team in the NL West, 11 games behind the Dodgers and 1/2 a game behind the Diamondbacks, but they are the 2nd best last place team in the majors. The NL West is no longer the NL worst, as the division as a whole is only one game under .500. The NL East is now the NL Least, as the division finds itself 10 games under .500. The Rockies haven't been playing all that bad of late. They are 7-8 over their last 15 games and have a decent pitching staff that is keeping them afloat. The Dodgers will be throwing out three consecutive left handed starters (Stults, Milton, Kershaw), all three can be a bit of a grab bag at times.
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 1.9
2. 2B-Orlando Hudson 1.6
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.4
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Chad Billingsley 1.8
2. Randy Wolf 1.1
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.9
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.4
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.6
3. Cory Wade 0.3
Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.4
2. LF-Juan Pierre 1.4
3. 3B-Mark Loretta 1.0
Top Three Rockies Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. C-Chris Ianetta 0.8
2T OF-Seth Smith 0.7
2T 1B-Todd Helton 0.7
2T 2B-Clint Barmes 0.7
Top Three Rockies Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Ubaldo Jimenez 1.4
2. *Jorge de la Rosa 1.2
3. Jason Marquis 1.0
Top Three Rockies Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jason Grilli 0.3
2. Manny Corpas 0.2
3. Huston Street 0.2
Top Three Rockies Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. 2B-Clint Barmes 3.8
2. LF-Ryan Spillborghs 2.2
3. RF-Ryan Spillborghs 2.1
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
The Dodgers better not take the Rockies too lightly. The biggest difference between these two teams is the hitting. The Dodgers have the #1 ranked NL Offense and the Rockies the 12th. Fielding and pitching wise the two teams are very similar. The Rockies have three starting pitchers with an 09 WAR of 1.0 or greater, while the Dodgers have two, with Kershaw ready to climb over that threshold. Jason Grilli has been the Rockies best pitcher out of the pen (FIP 3.00, K/9 11.57), more impressively done while allowing a BABIP against of .411. Huston Street has been pretty decent too (FIP 3.95, K/9 10.38), but Manny Corpas has been a bit of a letdown (FIP 3.58, K/9 4.82) especially his K/9 rate which has dropped for the 3rd consecutive year. Corpas, admittedly has been a bit unlucky (BABIP .388). Either way, don't expect the Rockies to be a pushover, as this is a big series for them, as they try to close the gap on the Dodgers big NL West lead.
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 9-6
Last 15 Games, Rockies: 7-8
Last 5 Games, Dodgers: 3-2
Last 15 Games, Rockies: 3-2
Series Pitching Matchups
G1: E.Stults vs J.de la Rosa
G2: E.Milton vs A.Cook
G3: C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez
Source for stats: Fangraphs
| Team | Hitting | Arm | Range R | Error R | Overall Fielding | SP | RP | Overall Pitching | Team Total |
| Units | RAR | NL Rank | NL Rank | NL Rank | UZR | RAR | RAR | WAR | WAR |
| Dodgers | 28.4 | -4.9 | 42.6 | 14.9 | 6.1 | 14.0 | |||
| Rockies | -19.0 | -7.4 | 42.7 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | |||
| Dodgers NL Rank | 1st | 15th | 10th | 6th | 11th | 5th | 3rd | 2nd | 7th |
| Rockies NL Rank | 12th | 13th | 11th | 8th | 12th | 4th | 6th | 4th | 1st |
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 1.9
2. 2B-Orlando Hudson 1.6
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.4
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Chad Billingsley 1.8
2. Randy Wolf 1.1
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.9
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.4
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.6
3. Cory Wade 0.3
Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.4
2. LF-Juan Pierre 1.4
3. 3B-Mark Loretta 1.0
Top Three Rockies Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. C-Chris Ianetta 0.8
2T OF-Seth Smith 0.7
2T 1B-Todd Helton 0.7
2T 2B-Clint Barmes 0.7
Top Three Rockies Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Ubaldo Jimenez 1.4
2. *Jorge de la Rosa 1.2
3. Jason Marquis 1.0
Top Three Rockies Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jason Grilli 0.3
2. Manny Corpas 0.2
3. Huston Street 0.2
Top Three Rockies Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. 2B-Clint Barmes 3.8
2. LF-Ryan Spillborghs 2.2
3. RF-Ryan Spillborghs 2.1
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
The Dodgers better not take the Rockies too lightly. The biggest difference between these two teams is the hitting. The Dodgers have the #1 ranked NL Offense and the Rockies the 12th. Fielding and pitching wise the two teams are very similar. The Rockies have three starting pitchers with an 09 WAR of 1.0 or greater, while the Dodgers have two, with Kershaw ready to climb over that threshold. Jason Grilli has been the Rockies best pitcher out of the pen (FIP 3.00, K/9 11.57), more impressively done while allowing a BABIP against of .411. Huston Street has been pretty decent too (FIP 3.95, K/9 10.38), but Manny Corpas has been a bit of a letdown (FIP 3.58, K/9 4.82) especially his K/9 rate which has dropped for the 3rd consecutive year. Corpas, admittedly has been a bit unlucky (BABIP .388). Either way, don't expect the Rockies to be a pushover, as this is a big series for them, as they try to close the gap on the Dodgers big NL West lead.
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 9-6
Last 15 Games, Rockies: 7-8
Last 5 Games, Dodgers: 3-2
Last 15 Games, Rockies: 3-2
Series Pitching Matchups
G1: E.Stults vs J.de la Rosa
G2: E.Milton vs A.Cook
G3: C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez
Source for stats: Fangraphs
Angels vs Dodgers, May 24th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Angels | Dodgers | M.Palmer vs C.Billingsley | Dodgers | 64.29% | 7.8 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
NL Doesn't Suck So Far
Two days into interleague play the National League has been holding it's own for the most part. The American League holds a slight and statistically insignificant 15-13 edge so far. The American League actually has won 8 of the 14 games played in NL parks, while the two leagues have split the 14 games played in AL parks.
Angels vs Dodgers, May 23rd
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Angels | Dodgers | J.Lackey vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 53.49% | 7.5 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Angels vs Dodgers, May 22nd
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Angels | Dodgers | J.Weaver vs C.Kershaw | Dodgers | 54.55% | 7.4 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Angels / Dodgers, Series Preview
Heading into the Freeway Series both teams find themselves without their big sluggers. The Angels have been playing without Vladimir Guerrero for most of the year due to torn pectoral muscle and the Dodgers without Manny Ramirez for the last dozen or so games. The Angels enter the series in 2nd place in the AL West, with a 21-19 record and only two games behind the surprising Rangers. The Dodgers on the otherhand hold a whopping 9 game lead over some god awful team. The Angels, whose pitching staff has been in shambles this year, recently got a big boost from the return of both John Lackey (Saturdays pitcher) and Ervin Santana. Please read below for a more statistical breakdown of the matchup.
Top Three Angels Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Torri Hunter +1.5
2. C -Mike Napoli +1.3
3. RF-Bobby Abreu +1.1
Top Three Angels Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *J.Weaver +1.1
2. J.Saunders +0.8
3. S.Loux +0.6
Top Three Angels Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Arredondo +0.7
2. D.Oliver +0.6
3. B.Fuentes +0.4
Top Three Angels Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. 2B-H.Kendrick 4.2
2. LF-J.Rivera 1.4
3. 1B-R.Quinlan 1.0
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.7
2. O.Hudson +1.6
3. M.Ramirez +1.3
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.8
2. *R.Wolf +1.1
3. *C.Kersahw +0.8
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.2
2. R.Troncoso +0.6
3. C.Wade +0.4
Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-M.Kemp 7.3
2. 1B-J.Loney 2.0
3. 1B.M.Loretta 0.6
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
Statistically, the Angels aren't all that impressive. Their biggest strength appears to be their bullpen, but their closer Brian Fuentes, is not even their first or second best pitcher out of the pen. Niether team fields all that well, but the Dodgers do have the 4th best fielder (Matt Kemp) in all of baseball based on 2009 UZR. The Dodgers continue to be near the top in hitting and pitching, and should be favored to win this series. Of course with the return of Lackey, the Angels starting pitching is better now than what the early season stats show. The Dodgers counter with their three best pitchers (Kershaw, Wolf and Billingsley), so be prepared for some great pitching and low scoring games this weekend.
Last 15 Games, Angels: 9-6
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 10-5
Last 5 Games, Angels: 3-2
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 4-1
Series Pitching Matchups
G1: J.Weavers vs C.Kershaw
G2: J.Lackey vs R.Wolf
G3: M.Palmer vs C.Billingsley
Source for stats: Fangraphs
| Team | Hitting | Arm | Range R | Error R | Overall Fielding | SP | RP | Overall Pitching | Team Total |
| Units | RAR | NL Rank | NL Rank | NL Rank | UZR | RAR | RAR | WAR | WAR |
| Angels | 4.7 | -4.1 | 33.4 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 9.1 | |||
| Dodgers | 25.1 | -8.8 | 43.6 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 12.9 | |||
| Angels MLB Rank | 15th | 23rd | 20th | 24th | 21st | 17th | 7th | 11th | 12th |
| Dodgers MLB Rank | 6th | 29th | 23rd | 17th | 24th | 5th | 10th | 4th | 2nd |
Top Three Angels Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Torri Hunter +1.5
2. C -Mike Napoli +1.3
3. RF-Bobby Abreu +1.1
Top Three Angels Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *J.Weaver +1.1
2. J.Saunders +0.8
3. S.Loux +0.6
Top Three Angels Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Arredondo +0.7
2. D.Oliver +0.6
3. B.Fuentes +0.4
Top Three Angels Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. 2B-H.Kendrick 4.2
2. LF-J.Rivera 1.4
3. 1B-R.Quinlan 1.0
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.7
2. O.Hudson +1.6
3. M.Ramirez +1.3
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.8
2. *R.Wolf +1.1
3. *C.Kersahw +0.8
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.2
2. R.Troncoso +0.6
3. C.Wade +0.4
Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-M.Kemp 7.3
2. 1B-J.Loney 2.0
3. 1B.M.Loretta 0.6
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
Statistically, the Angels aren't all that impressive. Their biggest strength appears to be their bullpen, but their closer Brian Fuentes, is not even their first or second best pitcher out of the pen. Niether team fields all that well, but the Dodgers do have the 4th best fielder (Matt Kemp) in all of baseball based on 2009 UZR. The Dodgers continue to be near the top in hitting and pitching, and should be favored to win this series. Of course with the return of Lackey, the Angels starting pitching is better now than what the early season stats show. The Dodgers counter with their three best pitchers (Kershaw, Wolf and Billingsley), so be prepared for some great pitching and low scoring games this weekend.
Last 15 Games, Angels: 9-6
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 10-5
Last 5 Games, Angels: 3-2
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 4-1
Series Pitching Matchups
G1: J.Weavers vs C.Kershaw
G2: J.Lackey vs R.Wolf
G3: M.Palmer vs C.Billingsley
Source for stats: Fangraphs
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
The Tortoise and The Dodgers
After sweeping the New York Mets out of first place, the Dodgers find themselves an amazing 8-1/2 games in front of the 2nd place Giants in the National League West. The Dodgers got great pitching, outscoring the Mets by a narrow 10-6 margin over the three game series. At the current pace, the Dodgers would win the NL West by over 19 games. We all know that won't happen, but the Dodgers are sure building themselves up a nice little cushion.
Next up for the Dodgers will be the cross-town rival Angels who were shutout for the second time in four games tonight by none other than Mariners rookie Chris Jakubauskas. The Angels play one more game against the Mariners thursday, while the Dodgers lay in waiting with the day off. I will have a series preview up as we get closer to friday nights game. Until then ponder this... Juan Pierre (162) and Mark Loretta (135) rank first and second in the National League in OPS+ for players who have played more than 25 games and have yet to hit a HR.
Next up for the Dodgers will be the cross-town rival Angels who were shutout for the second time in four games tonight by none other than Mariners rookie Chris Jakubauskas. The Angels play one more game against the Mariners thursday, while the Dodgers lay in waiting with the day off. I will have a series preview up as we get closer to friday nights game. Until then ponder this... Juan Pierre (162) and Mark Loretta (135) rank first and second in the National League in OPS+ for players who have played more than 25 games and have yet to hit a HR.
Mets vs Dodgers, May 20th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Mets | Dodgers | L.Hernandez vs J.Weaver | Dodgers | 55.56% | 10.0 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Mets vs Dodgers, May 19th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Mets | Dodgers | J.Maine vs C.Billingsley | Dodgers | 57.26% | 7.9 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Mets / Dodgers Series Preview
The NL East leading New York Mets and NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers get together for a three game series this week. The Dodgers playing the day after a cross country flight from Miami, where the Dodgers took two out of three games from the Marlins and four out of six on their brief east coast roadtrip. The Mets will be playing games 5,6 and 7 of a road trip where they have already beaten the Giants three out of four games, and after three games with the Dodgers will travel to Boston for three more. Let's take a look at how these two teams matchup and get to know the Dodgers opponent a little better.
Top Three Mets Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Carlos Beltran +2.0
2. 3B-David Wright +1.7
3. SS-Jose Reyes +0.7
Top Three Mets Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Santana +2.2
2. J.Niese +0.5
3. *J.Maine +0.4
Top Three Mets Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. F.Rodriguez +0.4
2. B.Parnell +0.4
3. B.Stokes +0.3
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.8
2. O.Hudson +1.4
3. M.Ramirez +1.3
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.6
2. *R.Wolf +0.9
3. C.Kersahw +0.8
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.1
2. R.Troncoso +0.5
3. C.Wade +0.4
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
The Mets stack up with the Dodgers about as well as any NL team does, but the Dodgers still hold an edge pretty much all across the board, but the Mets are definitely the best team the Dodgers have played so far this year. The Dodgers biggest edge is definitely in the starting rotation, where the Mets are a one man show, starring Johan Santana. The Dodgers won't have to face Johan Santana this time around, which bodes well for their chances to win this series. They will instead have to face the likes of Tim Redding in Game #1, who will be making his 2009 seasonal debut, after making two starts with the Mets AAA team. In Game #2, the Dodgers ace, Chad Billingsley faces John Maine who has been pitching well but sports a lucky .242 BABIP against. In the third game the Dodgers will throw out Eric Stults, who had a mediocre start against the Marlins, having come off a complete game shutout prior to that game... Stults faces the steady but very pedestrian Livan Hernandez. The Dodgers should be pretty solid favorites to take two out of three games in this series.
Source for stats: Fangraphs
| Team | Hitting | Arm | Range R | Error R | Overall Fielding | SP | RP | Overall Pitching | Team Total |
| Units | RAR | NL Rank | NL Rank | NL Rank | UZR | RAR | RAR | WAR | WAR |
| Mets | 22.6 | -14.4 | 31.8 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 10.0 | |||
| Dodgers | 30.1 | -8.8 | 40.0 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 12.4 | |||
| Mets NL Rank | 2nd | 14th | 13th | 13th | 15th | 8th | 4th | 5th | 3rd |
| Dodgers NL Rank | 2nd | 15th | 12th | 10th | 14th | 1st | 6th | 1st | 1st |
Top Three Mets Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Carlos Beltran +2.0
2. 3B-David Wright +1.7
3. SS-Jose Reyes +0.7
Top Three Mets Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Santana +2.2
2. J.Niese +0.5
3. *J.Maine +0.4
Top Three Mets Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. F.Rodriguez +0.4
2. B.Parnell +0.4
3. B.Stokes +0.3
Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.8
2. O.Hudson +1.4
3. M.Ramirez +1.3
Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.6
2. *R.Wolf +0.9
3. C.Kersahw +0.8
Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.1
2. R.Troncoso +0.5
3. C.Wade +0.4
* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.
The Mets stack up with the Dodgers about as well as any NL team does, but the Dodgers still hold an edge pretty much all across the board, but the Mets are definitely the best team the Dodgers have played so far this year. The Dodgers biggest edge is definitely in the starting rotation, where the Mets are a one man show, starring Johan Santana. The Dodgers won't have to face Johan Santana this time around, which bodes well for their chances to win this series. They will instead have to face the likes of Tim Redding in Game #1, who will be making his 2009 seasonal debut, after making two starts with the Mets AAA team. In Game #2, the Dodgers ace, Chad Billingsley faces John Maine who has been pitching well but sports a lucky .242 BABIP against. In the third game the Dodgers will throw out Eric Stults, who had a mediocre start against the Marlins, having come off a complete game shutout prior to that game... Stults faces the steady but very pedestrian Livan Hernandez. The Dodgers should be pretty solid favorites to take two out of three games in this series.
Source for stats: Fangraphs
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Dodgers vs Marlins, May 17th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Marlins | J.Koronka vs C.Kershaw | Dodgers | 58.68% | 10.1 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Dodgers vs Marlins, May 16th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Marlins | E.Milton vs A.Miller | Marlins | 51.46% | 9.6 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Dodgers vs Marlins, May 15th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Marlins | E.Stults vs C.Volstad | Marlins | 56.90% | 9.1 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Dodgers vs Phillies, May 14th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Phillies | C.Billingsley vs C.Hamels | Phillies | 57.26% | 8.2 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Dodgers vs Phillies, May 13th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Phillies | R.Wolf vs J.Moyer | Phillies | 50.50% | 9.9 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Dodgers vs Phillies, May 12th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Dodgers | Phillies | C.Kershaw vs C.Park | Phillies | 51.69% | 10.0 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Giants vs Dodgers, May 10th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Giants | Dodgers | T.Lincecum vs J.Weaver | Giants | 54.95% | 7.6 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Giants vs Dodgers, May 9th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Giants | Dodgers | J.Sanchez vs E.Stults | Dodgers | 57.45% | 9.0 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Friday, May 08, 2009
Giants vs Dodgers, May 8th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Giants | Dodgers | B.Zito vs C.Billingsley | Dodgers | 64.97% | 8.0 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Nationals vs Dodgers, May 7th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Nationals | Dodgers | J.Zimmermann vs R.Wolf | Dodgers | 57.81% | 8.7 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
2nd Annual Blogger Night @ Dodger Stadium
Just got back from the 2nd Annual Blogger Night at Dodger Stadium. Wow! What a blast that was. A special thanks to Josh Rawitch and Drew Merle for putting this great event together, and to the Mother Ship Dodger Blog for getting us bloggers noticed.
The event started with picking up our Preferred parking pass at the guard shack at the Sunset gate right when the stadium parking lot opened up at 5pm. After successfully finding Lot F, we wandered over to the Dodger offices and after some slight confusion we were welcomed and asked to sit in some seats overlooking the Dodgers batting practice and wait for the rest of our group to arrive. Around 530pm the experience started, and I call it an experience because it was just that, quite an experience. Being new to these events I didn't recognize any of the faces in the group and assumed Jon Weisman was late or off doing something else, because his would be the only face I'd recognize without a doubt. We were ushered into a conference room, seated around a large table. We were given an ID with some kind of special access pass on it to wear around our necks and told to put our names on it. We were then asked who had attended the previous event. Of course I didn't raise my hand, but over half the people did. Everyone introduced themselves by first name. I still didn't recognize any of the names, but who does in a room that is full of strangers to you. But thought it odd, that I didn't recognize atleast one name from many of the other Dodger bloggers.
Next up, we were then told why we had been brought here today and what our mission was. I thought that was kind of odd, I figured our mission was to sit in a Dodger Suite, meet each other, maybe meet a Dodger spokesperson or two and enjoy a baseball game. We were asked how many of us had the ambition of working for the Dodgers and becoming a Dodger Embassador. About two-thirds of the people raised their hands, which I thought odd coming from a group of Dodger bloggers. I mean, what the heck is a Dodger Embassador anyways? Do they represent the Dodgers at the United Nations!? Well, as I soon found out their job is to interact with Dodger fans, take in a game and mingle with the fans in the area and report back to the Dodgers what their "Fan Experience" was like. What experiences did they really enjoy or dislike, and what kind of recommendations did they have for the Dodgers to make the "fan experience" more enjoyable. I thought wow, this isn't exactly what I had in mind, but I will go along with it. Next we were told our actual mission and it was to be "seat fillers" behind home plate in an area that is called the "Dodger Dugout Club", which is a very very expensive place to sit if you have to buy your own tickets. Supposedly season seats go for $50K per year, and I don't know if that is per seat, or per two seats, but at $50K it didn't really enter my mind that it would ever be something I'd want to pay for. We were getting briefed on how to be a "seat filler" or what the Dodger employee called a "Page". Kind of like when you watch the Academy Awards on TV and when they have empty seats, they actually have volunteers (I assume they are volunteers) who will sit in empty seats until the actual person or people that have tickets for that seat arrive. I guess the Dodgers don't want to give the impression that there aren't people sitting in the seats behind home plate in the Dugout Club area to the television audience. We were then told that we'd be assigned seats to sit in by a Dodger employee who would be supervising the sortie from underneath one of the tunnels. And when someone arrived at their seat, you were to great them with "Hello, and welcome to Dodger Stadium", then get up and politely leave. You weren't suppose to eat any food at your seat as they didn't want anyone to arrive to their seat to a trashy mess and you weren't suppose to chat on your cellphone as this makes you look like an uninterested or typical Dugout Club Dodger fan, and lastly you had to take off your VIP pass so it would not be visible to the TV audience.
Wow! This was a lot of information to swallow for my first Dodger Blogger get together. It didn't seem like a very comfortable way to watch a Dodger game, even though you'd have terrific seats for 15 or possibly 20 minutes at a time, as you got shuffled in and out of the Dugout Club to different seating assignments. So one last time we introduced ourselves and this time I said something to the effect of, "My name is such and such, but I believe I may have been put with the wrong group of people, are the rest of you here for blogger night?" That got a good laugh from the group as it definitely was not "Blogger night" for this group of people and it became very ironic that I had heard a good 30 minutes of talk from the Dodger employer in charge of the Embassador program and the members trying to become Dodger Embassadors, because I'm sure some of the information (like this story I am telling), they probably would feel somewhat embarrassed of the public knowing it. Don't you think it's odd that the Dodgers have people filling seats behind home to make the stadium look full to the television audience? I was kind of shocked, and even more shocked that blogger night was going to have myself, guest and other Dodger bloggers playing musical chairs in some of the most expensive seats in the stadium. There were some other good stories I heard about the crowd control problem, which section of the stadiums have "the best" fans and "the worst" fans. What kind of experiences the security guards had recently had with the new alcohol enforcement policies in the parking lot and what some of the loopholes in the policy are. I guess I won't kiss and tell everything, but it was interesting nonetheless.
After finding out we were with the wrong group of VIP visitors, we eventually got in touch with Josh who scurried us and a few stragglers to the Tommy Lasorda suite where a crowd of probably around 30 bloggers and guests were chatting away. After a brief introduction of who we were and which blogs we were associated with Josh gave us a little introduction of who some of the guest speakers were going to be. This time I did recognize many names and even a few faces, I was finally at "Blogger Night", and would no longer have to worry about keeping a seat warm for a movie star or corporate banker. The highlight turned out to be a good 30 minute talk and question session from GM Ned Colletti. I actually ended up standing right next to him the whole time and got to shake his hand. He came across as a "no bullshit" type of person. He spoke what appeared to be the truth and seemed very genuine. Some of his opinions and cliches were "old school", like taking the Dodgers hot start with a grain of salt because it's called a baseball "season", not a baseball "month", and certain players he liked having on the team because they were good people. I think the exact words he used is that they were "adults" (Loretta, Ausmus) and acted like it. I believe he had to tone down some of his opinions a little bit, because after all he is the GM and is a very high ranking team spokesperson. It wasn't too hard to read between the lines on some of his opinions to see that there was more too them and that he really in fact had strong opinions but had to tone them down. One of those topics was Andruw Jones. He almost started to light into Andruw Jones and how he came to the Dodgers out of shape and ended up burning bridges with Dodger fans etc... Colletti is obviously not a big Andruw Jones fan, and I am not just talking about baseball. Another more subtle stab was made at Russell Martin and about how he was not a highly touted prospect when he was drafted and much of his success came from his great work ethic, which is probably true to a degree. I got the feeling that Colletti thanks that Russell has gotten away from that work ethic over the past year, and that matches some of the gossip about Russell and his party boy escapades.
In the Q&A Ned probably took around 10 questions from the Dodger Bloggers. I thought all of them were pretty good questions, I wasn't too crazy about the question/complaint about why we have to sing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch. Hey, it was a totally fair question but I guess since the singing of both God Bless America and Take Me Out To The Ballgame doesn't really bother me at all, it rubbed me the wrong way. Basically, the answer was that it was Jamie McCourt's idea and whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.
The game was great, the Dodgers broke the record for most consecutive wins to start the season at home. It's not every day you get to see a 98 year old baseball record fall that doesn't involve steroids. The Tommy Lasorda suite we were in was great. We were fed Dodger Dogs, sandwiches, cookies, soda and one of the most elaborate dessert trays you will ever see. I proudly admit, I didn't indulge myself from it. Ken Levine and Josh Suchon from Dodger Talk (KABC 790 AM radio) even stopped by to chat for a little while. They were mobbed, so didn't get a chance to meet them. For the most part I watched the game, but I would say that more than half of the people were chatting and getting caught up on old times which is fine too. Maybe next time, I won't be so shy and become one of the chatters. :)
The event started with picking up our Preferred parking pass at the guard shack at the Sunset gate right when the stadium parking lot opened up at 5pm. After successfully finding Lot F, we wandered over to the Dodger offices and after some slight confusion we were welcomed and asked to sit in some seats overlooking the Dodgers batting practice and wait for the rest of our group to arrive. Around 530pm the experience started, and I call it an experience because it was just that, quite an experience. Being new to these events I didn't recognize any of the faces in the group and assumed Jon Weisman was late or off doing something else, because his would be the only face I'd recognize without a doubt. We were ushered into a conference room, seated around a large table. We were given an ID with some kind of special access pass on it to wear around our necks and told to put our names on it. We were then asked who had attended the previous event. Of course I didn't raise my hand, but over half the people did. Everyone introduced themselves by first name. I still didn't recognize any of the names, but who does in a room that is full of strangers to you. But thought it odd, that I didn't recognize atleast one name from many of the other Dodger bloggers.
Next up, we were then told why we had been brought here today and what our mission was. I thought that was kind of odd, I figured our mission was to sit in a Dodger Suite, meet each other, maybe meet a Dodger spokesperson or two and enjoy a baseball game. We were asked how many of us had the ambition of working for the Dodgers and becoming a Dodger Embassador. About two-thirds of the people raised their hands, which I thought odd coming from a group of Dodger bloggers. I mean, what the heck is a Dodger Embassador anyways? Do they represent the Dodgers at the United Nations!? Well, as I soon found out their job is to interact with Dodger fans, take in a game and mingle with the fans in the area and report back to the Dodgers what their "Fan Experience" was like. What experiences did they really enjoy or dislike, and what kind of recommendations did they have for the Dodgers to make the "fan experience" more enjoyable. I thought wow, this isn't exactly what I had in mind, but I will go along with it. Next we were told our actual mission and it was to be "seat fillers" behind home plate in an area that is called the "Dodger Dugout Club", which is a very very expensive place to sit if you have to buy your own tickets. Supposedly season seats go for $50K per year, and I don't know if that is per seat, or per two seats, but at $50K it didn't really enter my mind that it would ever be something I'd want to pay for. We were getting briefed on how to be a "seat filler" or what the Dodger employee called a "Page". Kind of like when you watch the Academy Awards on TV and when they have empty seats, they actually have volunteers (I assume they are volunteers) who will sit in empty seats until the actual person or people that have tickets for that seat arrive. I guess the Dodgers don't want to give the impression that there aren't people sitting in the seats behind home plate in the Dugout Club area to the television audience. We were then told that we'd be assigned seats to sit in by a Dodger employee who would be supervising the sortie from underneath one of the tunnels. And when someone arrived at their seat, you were to great them with "Hello, and welcome to Dodger Stadium", then get up and politely leave. You weren't suppose to eat any food at your seat as they didn't want anyone to arrive to their seat to a trashy mess and you weren't suppose to chat on your cellphone as this makes you look like an uninterested or typical Dugout Club Dodger fan, and lastly you had to take off your VIP pass so it would not be visible to the TV audience.
Wow! This was a lot of information to swallow for my first Dodger Blogger get together. It didn't seem like a very comfortable way to watch a Dodger game, even though you'd have terrific seats for 15 or possibly 20 minutes at a time, as you got shuffled in and out of the Dugout Club to different seating assignments. So one last time we introduced ourselves and this time I said something to the effect of, "My name is such and such, but I believe I may have been put with the wrong group of people, are the rest of you here for blogger night?" That got a good laugh from the group as it definitely was not "Blogger night" for this group of people and it became very ironic that I had heard a good 30 minutes of talk from the Dodger employer in charge of the Embassador program and the members trying to become Dodger Embassadors, because I'm sure some of the information (like this story I am telling), they probably would feel somewhat embarrassed of the public knowing it. Don't you think it's odd that the Dodgers have people filling seats behind home to make the stadium look full to the television audience? I was kind of shocked, and even more shocked that blogger night was going to have myself, guest and other Dodger bloggers playing musical chairs in some of the most expensive seats in the stadium. There were some other good stories I heard about the crowd control problem, which section of the stadiums have "the best" fans and "the worst" fans. What kind of experiences the security guards had recently had with the new alcohol enforcement policies in the parking lot and what some of the loopholes in the policy are. I guess I won't kiss and tell everything, but it was interesting nonetheless.
After finding out we were with the wrong group of VIP visitors, we eventually got in touch with Josh who scurried us and a few stragglers to the Tommy Lasorda suite where a crowd of probably around 30 bloggers and guests were chatting away. After a brief introduction of who we were and which blogs we were associated with Josh gave us a little introduction of who some of the guest speakers were going to be. This time I did recognize many names and even a few faces, I was finally at "Blogger Night", and would no longer have to worry about keeping a seat warm for a movie star or corporate banker. The highlight turned out to be a good 30 minute talk and question session from GM Ned Colletti. I actually ended up standing right next to him the whole time and got to shake his hand. He came across as a "no bullshit" type of person. He spoke what appeared to be the truth and seemed very genuine. Some of his opinions and cliches were "old school", like taking the Dodgers hot start with a grain of salt because it's called a baseball "season", not a baseball "month", and certain players he liked having on the team because they were good people. I think the exact words he used is that they were "adults" (Loretta, Ausmus) and acted like it. I believe he had to tone down some of his opinions a little bit, because after all he is the GM and is a very high ranking team spokesperson. It wasn't too hard to read between the lines on some of his opinions to see that there was more too them and that he really in fact had strong opinions but had to tone them down. One of those topics was Andruw Jones. He almost started to light into Andruw Jones and how he came to the Dodgers out of shape and ended up burning bridges with Dodger fans etc... Colletti is obviously not a big Andruw Jones fan, and I am not just talking about baseball. Another more subtle stab was made at Russell Martin and about how he was not a highly touted prospect when he was drafted and much of his success came from his great work ethic, which is probably true to a degree. I got the feeling that Colletti thanks that Russell has gotten away from that work ethic over the past year, and that matches some of the gossip about Russell and his party boy escapades.
In the Q&A Ned probably took around 10 questions from the Dodger Bloggers. I thought all of them were pretty good questions, I wasn't too crazy about the question/complaint about why we have to sing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch. Hey, it was a totally fair question but I guess since the singing of both God Bless America and Take Me Out To The Ballgame doesn't really bother me at all, it rubbed me the wrong way. Basically, the answer was that it was Jamie McCourt's idea and whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.
The game was great, the Dodgers broke the record for most consecutive wins to start the season at home. It's not every day you get to see a 98 year old baseball record fall that doesn't involve steroids. The Tommy Lasorda suite we were in was great. We were fed Dodger Dogs, sandwiches, cookies, soda and one of the most elaborate dessert trays you will ever see. I proudly admit, I didn't indulge myself from it. Ken Levine and Josh Suchon from Dodger Talk (KABC 790 AM radio) even stopped by to chat for a little while. They were mobbed, so didn't get a chance to meet them. For the most part I watched the game, but I would say that more than half of the people were chatting and getting caught up on old times which is fine too. Maybe next time, I won't be so shy and become one of the chatters. :)
Dodgers Are Too Good???
The commissioners office is supposedly worried about the competitive balance in the NL West and the Dodgers ridiculously long home winning streak to start off the season. Fan interest is at an all time low in the four other NL West cities and this is not good for the economics of baseball, which is already hurting from the current recession. If the Dodgers win a record 13th consecutive home game to start off the season tonight vs the Washington Nationals, the Commissioner will start all Dodger home games (until they lose) with the visiting team getting a run on the board. If the winning streak lasts to the Giants series, then the visiting team will start getting two runs to start off the game. This handicap could easily bring the Dodgers back down to the pack in the NL West, so it's something to definitely keep your eye on. Let's take a look at what the Dodgers home record would be had this plan been in effect for the whole 2009 season.
Home Records
Current: 12-0
Spotting 1 run: 8-4 is the worst possible record
Spotting 2 runs: 7-5 is the worst possible record
Note: The Dodgers have won four 1 run games at home, so at worst they could have lost four having spotted the opposition one run, but likely would've split the difference and gone something like 10-2. As far as spotting the opposition two runs, there would only be 5 home games effected by this plan. Keep in mind that the Dodgers didn't bat in the 9th inning in any of these games, so they likely would've won some of these games that they won by only one or two runs.
Analysis: This is a hard one to get a good handle on because all of the in game strategies that would be effected by spotting the opposition one or two runs to start a game off with, but my instincts are that the Dodgers would still win the NL West while spotting the opposition even one or two runs to start a game off with. With the way that O.Hudson, M.Ramirez and A.Ethier and swinging the bat and C.Billingsley and J.Broxton pitching, there isn't much the rest of the NL West can do unless you start spotting opposing teams four or five runs per game and that's just outright unfair if you ask me.
Home Records
Current: 12-0
Spotting 1 run: 8-4 is the worst possible record
Spotting 2 runs: 7-5 is the worst possible record
Note: The Dodgers have won four 1 run games at home, so at worst they could have lost four having spotted the opposition one run, but likely would've split the difference and gone something like 10-2. As far as spotting the opposition two runs, there would only be 5 home games effected by this plan. Keep in mind that the Dodgers didn't bat in the 9th inning in any of these games, so they likely would've won some of these games that they won by only one or two runs.
Analysis: This is a hard one to get a good handle on because all of the in game strategies that would be effected by spotting the opposition one or two runs to start a game off with, but my instincts are that the Dodgers would still win the NL West while spotting the opposition even one or two runs to start a game off with. With the way that O.Hudson, M.Ramirez and A.Ethier and swinging the bat and C.Billingsley and J.Broxton pitching, there isn't much the rest of the NL West can do unless you start spotting opposing teams four or five runs per game and that's just outright unfair if you ask me.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Nationals vs Dodgers, May 6th
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| Nationals | Dodgers | D.Cabrera vs C.Kershaw | Dodgers | 66.0% | 9.4 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, Cinco de Mayo
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Expectancy | Over/Under |
| DBacks | Dodgers | M.Scherzer vs J.Weaver | Dodgers | 53.05% | 8.6 |
Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.
Monday, May 04, 2009
Diamondbacks / Dodgers Series Preview
A quick two game series between these two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dodgers find themselves with the best record in baseball at 18-8, while the Diamondbacks come in struggling at 11-14. Let's take a trip down recent memory lane to see how these two teams got to where they are today.
The DBacks come in as advertised an all pitching and no hitting team. Their defense has made some slight improvements but not enough to make up for their awful hitting to begin the 2009 season. The Dodgers also have been solid pitching wise, and enter the game with the 4th best pitching staff in the NL (2 spots behind the DBacks). These two teams would be mirror images of each other, and for the most part last year they were, except that this year the Dodgers have the number one ranked offense in the NL. The DBacks on the otherhand have the 15th ranked offense in the NL. Both bullpens are solid, though each has been through some turbulence of late. The DBacks find their closer Jose Valverde on the DL and the Dodgers recently placed 2008 Setup Man of the Year, HongZhi Guo on the DL.
Source for stats: Fangraphs
| Team | Hitting | Arm | Range R | Error R | Overall Fielding | SP | RP | Overall Pitching | Team Total |
| Units | RAR | NL Rank | NL Rank | NL Rank | UZR | RAR | RAR | WAR | WAR |
| Arizona | 1.1 | 3.5 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | |||
| Los Angeles | 52.8 | -2.6 | 22.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | |||
| Arizona NL Rank | 15th | 6th | 2nd | 14th | 6th | 2nd | 3rd | 2nd | 15th |
| Los Angeles NL Rank | 1st | 9th | 10th | 11th | 9th | 4th | 4th | 4th | 1st |
The DBacks come in as advertised an all pitching and no hitting team. Their defense has made some slight improvements but not enough to make up for their awful hitting to begin the 2009 season. The Dodgers also have been solid pitching wise, and enter the game with the 4th best pitching staff in the NL (2 spots behind the DBacks). These two teams would be mirror images of each other, and for the most part last year they were, except that this year the Dodgers have the number one ranked offense in the NL. The DBacks on the otherhand have the 15th ranked offense in the NL. Both bullpens are solid, though each has been through some turbulence of late. The DBacks find their closer Jose Valverde on the DL and the Dodgers recently placed 2008 Setup Man of the Year, HongZhi Guo on the DL.
| Series Pitching Matchups | |||
| Date | DBacks | Dodgers | Vegas Favorite |
| 5/4 | Doug Davis | Eric Stults | Dodgers 57.4% |
| 5/5 | Max Scherzer | Jeff Weaver | Dodgers 55.0% |
Source for stats: Fangraphs
Dodger Sims Blog Format Changes
Dodger Sims will take on a new look starting today. No longer will I be posting the outputs of my Simulator for Dodger games. Dodger Sims will now turn to various sabermetric postings about the Dodgers, Dodger opponents or other baseball teams in general.
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