Friday, April 24, 2009

Dodgers vs Rockies, April 24th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Rockies E.Stults vs A.Cook Rockies 53.90% 11.11


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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Dodgers vs Astros, April 23rd

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Astros C.Billingsley vs W.Rodriguez Dodgers 51.69% 8.88


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Dodgers vs Astros, April 22nd

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Astros R.Wolf vs R.Oswalt Astros 50.80% 9.30


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Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Dodgers vs Astros, April 21st

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Astros C.Kershaw vs R.Ortiz Dodgers 57.90% 10.63


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Monday, April 20, 2009

No Game Today... But

Let me throw out this little mathematical tidbit. The Dodgers are off to a 10-3 start. Sure, it doesn't gaurantee squat at this point due to small sample size and the fact that the Dodgers have yet to face real, I mean any competition outside of the NL West plus a hundred other reasons. But it is 13 games, so it does mean something as there are only 149 games left in the season.

Let's say you predicted the Dodgers to win somewhere between 87-92 games before the season started this year. You now have to add around three wins to that total. Why? Well, let's use a 88 win projection as our example. 88 wins in a 162 game season is a winning percentage of 0.5432. On a 13 game pace with a 0.5432 winning percentage the Dodgers should have 7.1 wins. But they don't, they have 10. The Dodgers in this scenario have banked 2.9 wins. That's house money. So take your 88 wins and add 2.9 (let's call it three) wins, which means you have to up your win projection for the Dodgers to 91. Likewise, if you projected them as a 90 win team to start off the season, you now have to bump that up to 93. The same for the other NL West teams. If you thought the Dodgers closest competitor, the Arizona Diamondbacks was going to be an 85 win team, well they are off to a 4-8 start and need to be docked around 2 wins. So you are looking at around a 5 win swing between what you need to adjust your Dodger and Diamondbacks projections to. It still doesn't gaurantee anything, but it's always nice to have the advantage.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Rockies vs Dodgers, April 19th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs J.McDonald Dodgers 50.10% 8.95


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Rockies vs Dodgers, April 18th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Rockies Dodgers A.Cook vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 64.42% 8.00


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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, April 16th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers B.Zito vs E.Stults Dodgers 65.90% 8.05


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Giants vs Dodgers, April 15th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers M.Cain vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.10% 7.54


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Monday, April 13, 2009

Giants vs Dodgers, April 13th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Giants Dodgers R.Johnson vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 61.55% 7.28


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Saturday, April 11, 2009

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 12th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Diamondbacks R.Wolf vs D.Haren Diamondbacks 57.09% 9.07

Notes: I put Juan Pierre in for Matt Kemp. With Pierre in the lineup, the Diamondbacks have a win probability of 57.09%, and with Kemp in the lineup that win probability drops down to 54.89%. This is a fairly large difference. It appears as if the Dodgers and Joe Torre have confused Christmas gift giving and Easter.

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Friday, April 10, 2009

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 11th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Diamondbacks E.Stults vs Y.Petit Diamondbacks 50.10% 9.91

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 10th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Padres J.McDonald vs J.Garland Diamondbacks 54.71% 10.31


Who is Likely to have the Most...
Category Most 2nd Most 3rd Most 4th Most 5th Most
Home Runs M.Ramirez C.Young M.Reynolds J.Upton C.Jackson
Triples S.Drew O.Hudson C.Young F.Lopez J.Upton
Doubles O.Hudson M.Ramirez C.Tracy A.Ethier J.Loney
Singles R.Furcal O.Hudson F.Lopez M.Ramirez M.Kemp
Walks S.Drew F.Lopez C.Tracy M.Montero M.Ramirez
Note: Figures may change once lineup is announced.

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Dodgers vs Padres, April 9th

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Padres Kershaw vs Correia Dodgers 54.20% 7.43