Oakland Athletics - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

There are many ways people attempt to determine the best batting order.  Some people try to arrange high on base percentage people at the top of the lineup followed by sluggers and then the rest of the crew and slap on a pitcher batting 9th (NL Team) and you are good to go.  Others try calculators where you enter in player stats and out pops the best lineups.  These are all fun and probably get you part of the way there but they are in NO WAY scientific enough to make much of a claim to what the top lineups might be.

The best way (in my opinion) to determine which lineup is the best is to actually trot out every single lineup and see which one wins the most games.  Of course you would have to hold the opponent constant, using the same starters, lineup and starting pitcher.  How hard could that be to do?  Let's see, with nine batters in a lineup you would only have 362,880 lineups to go through.  How long could that take to play over 350,000 baseball games.  You could probably filter those permutations down to 25,000 or so by limiting left handed batters from hitting back to back, limiting the pitcher (NL) to batting either 8th or 9th, plus a few other obvious things.  Even if you could narrow things down to just two lineups, you would still need to play more than one game to determine which one was better.  So how many samples/games would you need?  10? 20? or maybe an entire season (162) of games?  No.  You would need a lot more than that.  Try tens of thousands just to separate the bad lineups from the good and then try a million or two to compare the best lineups.

Well, I think it is pretty impossible to play thousands of games one time or a couple of games a million times.  Hypothetically, if one were able to play games with thousands of different lineups, thousands or millions of times against the exact same opponent then you would get a very good idea as to which lineups were the best.  This is where simulation comes in handy.  A simulator that could play actual baseball games, by actual baseball rules, taking into consideration the important facets of a real baseball game like speed, defense, pitchers getting tired the more pitches they throw, splits, hitter vs pitcher matchups and outcomes and throw in some good player projections like the ones available for free at Fangraphs and then maybe through the power of the computer you could plow through tens of thousands of likely lineups to determine the best ones.

Now, you would be able to test the synergy of batting certain groups of players next to each other.  You would be able to experiment with various types of hitters hitting in different spots.  In fact, you could just let the computer run through each lineup and let you know what the top ones were, even tabulating how many times each player showed up at each spot in the top lineups.  Now you would have a good list of top lineups and be able to measure how many wins a manager might be leaving on the table by using the lineup(s) that he used.  Wouldn't it be very worthwhile for a team to know what its best lineups might be?  Of course it would, especially considering that on the free agent market one win (or WAR) is typically worth around $7M.  For managers that might not want to hit certain batters in certain lineup spots for whatever reason, he could use the filtering option to only measure lineups that fit his parameters.

Well, now on to what my game simulator using Steamer hitting projections lists as the top fifty lineups for the 2015 Oakland Athletics.  I only looked at lineups against a right handed starting pitcher and took the nine most likely starters from the list at the Roster Resource website and I have of course used their most common lineup as one of the many (10,000+) lineups that I am looking at.  Along with the top fifty lineups, there is a table showing how many times each player shows up in each lineup spot and what the most common back to back slottings are as well as back to back to back slottings (think synergy here).

Summary:
The batting order frequency table tells a lot here.  If you were to piece together a lineup from only the frequency table you would likely come up with what is the second ranked optimal lineup.  The lineup listed from the Roster Resource website came in listed 34th.  I've ran a few of these now for various teams and the Athletics seem to have a very balanced lineup with no one player way better than the others not causing much of a spread between the top lineups.  I also purposely added a bad lineup to the bottom of the top 50 list just to see what the maximum spread for the team looks like.  According to the simulator, there are not a lot of wins for the Athletics manager to leave on the table vs RHP compared to some of the other teams.

                                          Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)

Rank	Lineup	Wins/162 Games Behind
1	Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Fuld	0
2	Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Fuld	0.001
3	Reddick-Crisp-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.016
4	Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Butler-Fuld	0.042
5	Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Davis	0.067
6	Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Reddick	0.093
7	Fuld-Crisp-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien	0.094
8	Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.103
9	Reddick-Semien-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler	0.107
10	Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Fuld	0.108
11	Lawrie-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Fuld	0.108
12	Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Fuld-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler	0.109
13	Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Vogt-Semien	0.117
14	Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Zobrist-Fuld-Butler-Vogt	0.123
15	Zobrist-Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Vogt	0.14
16	Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Fuld	0.141
17	Semien-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Crisp-Vogt	0.146
18	Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.146
19	Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.152
20	Fuld-Crisp-Butler-Davis-Semien-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Zobrist	0.156
21	Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Reddick	0.156
22	Reddick-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.159
23	Crisp-Butler-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Vogt-Zobrist-Fuld	0.175
24	Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Lawrie-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.181
25	Fuld-Crisp-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Butler	0.191
26	Reddick-Zobrist-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Crisp-Vogt-Butler	0.192
27	Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Vogt	0.192
28	Crisp-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Fuld	0.195
29	Crisp-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Davis	0.204
30	Crisp-Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Fuld-Butler-Vogt	0.209
31	Crisp-Fuld-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Butler-Semien-Vogt	0.210
32	Crisp-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Fuld-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Reddick	0.213
33	Semien-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Davis	0.214
34	Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Lawrie-Semien-Fuld-Butler	0.218
35	Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld	0.221
36	Reddick-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Fuld-Semien-Crisp-Vogt-Butler	0.222
37	Crisp-Davis-Butler-Reddick-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld	0.236
38	Semien-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Fuld-Butler	0.238
39	Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Butler-Reddick-Zobrist-Fuld	0.242
40	Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Davis	0.244
41	Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Semien-Vogt	0.248
42	Crisp-Butler-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld	0.257
43	Lawrie-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Crisp-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Reddick	0.258
44	Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Zobrist-Vogt	0.260
45	Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Fuld-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler	0.263
46	Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Zobrist	0.267
47	Crisp-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Semien-Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Vogt	0.283
48	Fuld-Semien-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Reddick-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler	0.284
49	Crisp-Vogt-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Semien-Butler-Fuld	0.294
50	Crisp-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld	0.294
BAD	Vogt-Butler-Fuld-Crisp-Semien-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie	1.419

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             Batting Order Frequency Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Crisp	21	9	0	0	13	4	2	1	0
Reddick	8	10	7	9	2	9	1	0	4
Lawrie	2	0	25	11	3	4	4	1	0
Davis	2	5	8	26	5	0	0	0	4
Zobrist	8	9	2	3	15	5	3	3	2
Vogt	0	4	0	0	2	11	14	10	9
Semien	5	3	0	0	7	10	15	8	2
Butler	0	2	8	1	0	1	4	19	15
Fuld	4	8	0	0	3	6	7	8	14

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                    Synergy

   Back to Back Frequency Leaders

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2
1	22	Lawrie	Davis
2	20	Vogt	Semien
3	20	Semien	Fuld
4	20	Fuld	Butler
5	18	Reddick	Lawrie
6	17	Crisp	Vogt
7	17	Davis	Zobrist
8	16	Zobrist	Reddick
9	15	Butler	Reddick
10	15	Fuld	Crisp
11	14	Butler	Davis
12	13	Vogt	Butler
13	12	Reddick	Zobrist
14	11	Davis	Lawrie
15	11	Davis	Semien
16	11	Zobrist	Vogt
17	10	Reddick	Crisp
18	10	Lawrie	Reddick
19	10	Davis	Crisp
20	10	Butler	Fuld

     Back To Back to Back Frequency Leaders

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2	Player 3
1	13	Vogt	Semien	Fuld
2	13	Semien	Fuld	Butler
3	12	Reddick	Lawrie	Davis
4	10	Zobrist	Reddick	Lawrie
5	8	Lawrie	Davis	Semien
6	8	Davis	Zobrist	Reddick
7	7	Crisp	Vogt	Semien
8	7	Lawrie	Davis	Crisp
9	7	Lawrie	Davis	Zobrist
10	6	Lawrie	Vogt	Semien
11	6	Davis	Lawrie	Reddick
12	6	Zobrist	Vogt	Semien
13	6	Vogt	Butler	Fuld
14	6	Semien	Fuld	Crisp
15	6	Butler	Reddick	Crisp
16	6	Butler	Reddick	Zobrist
17	6	Butler	Davis	Zobrist
18	6	Fuld	Butler	Reddick
19	5	Crisp	Vogt	Butler
20	5	Lawrie	Reddick	Zobrist

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Best Lineup - Oakland Athletics

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Oakland Athletics.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump

Tigers vs Athletics - Simulation Results ALDS Game #5

Note: Vegas favors the Tigers, with a 50.4% win probability

                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences
1	2	3	47850		51	0	7	5421
2	1	2	46995		52	7	5	5267
3	3	4	35717		53	4	7	5221
4	2	1	35067		54	1	8	4650
5	3	2	34733		55	2	8	4638
6	1	3	27911		56	7	6	4490
7	0	1	27768		57	5	7	4434
8	4	3	25769		58	8	2	4302
9	3	1	25116		59	8	3	4064
10	2	4	22857		60	7	0	4026
11	4	5	22567		61	8	1	4000
12	4	2	22439		62	3	8	3956
13	0	2	21855		63	0	8	3590
14	1	0	21356		64	8	4	3547
15	1	4	20811		65	2	9	3182
16	0	3	19518		66	4	8	3170
17	2	0	18929		67	8	5	3149
18	4	1	18293		68	1	9	3113
19	5	4	16336		69	7	8	3068
20	5	3	16019		70	9	2	2835
21	3	0	15733		71	8	0	2751
22	2	5	15531		72	9	3	2720
23	5	2	15342		73	9	1	2611
24	3	5	15199		74	3	9	2607
25	0	4	14357		75	5	8	2586
26	1	5	14249		76	8	6	2549
27	5	6	12524		77	0	9	2363
28	5	1	12211		78	9	4	2206
29	4	0	11109		79	6	8	2184
30	0	5	10713		80	8	7	2130
31	6	3	10272		81	4	9	1965
32	2	6	10170		82	2	10	1951
33	1	6	9911		83	1	10	1864
34	3	6	9669		84	9	5	1860
35	6	2	9664		85	10	2	1843
36	6	4	9630		86	9	0	1809
37	6	5	9223		87	3	10	1759
38	4	6	8681		88	10	1	1746
39	6	1	8467		89	10	3	1745
40	5	0	7984		90	0	10	1552
41	0	6	7594		91	5	9	1530
42	1	7	7017		92	9	6	1507
43	2	7	7004		93	10	4	1421
44	6	7	6539		94	8	9	1350
45	7	2	6524		95	4	10	1260
46	7	3	6220		96	9	7	1240
47	3	7	6075		97	10	0	1193
48	7	4	5900		98	6	9	1191
49	7	1	5778		99	1	11	1175
50	6	0	5770		100	10	5	1149

Athletics vs Tigers - ALDS Game #4 Simulation Results

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Athletics	Tigers	Occurrences		Rank	Athletics	Tigers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4332		51	2	9	595
2	3	4	3991		52	7	6	591
3	1	2	3538		53	7	8	585
4	4	5	2887		54	4	0	581
5	3	2	2534		55	4	8	571
6	1	3	2438		56	6	1	569
7	2	4	2437		57	0	8	554
8	4	3	2248		58	7	2	550
9	2	1	2137		59	1	9	549
10	1	4	2056		60	7	3	538
11	3	5	1958		61	3	9	481
12	2	5	1877		62	5	8	481
13	5	6	1844		63	2	10	468
14	1	5	1701		64	1	10	449
15	0	3	1639		65	3	10	419
16	4	2	1638		66	5	0	408
17	5	4	1628		67	0	9	406
18	3	1	1612		68	4	9	394
19	0	1	1556		69	6	8	374
20	0	2	1505		70	8	3	372
21	0	4	1416		71	7	1	367
22	5	3	1400		72	8	2	359
23	2	6	1377		73	8	4	357
24	3	6	1361		74	8	5	357
25	4	6	1204		75	8	7	353
26	1	6	1191		76	5	9	340
27	4	1	1152		77	8	6	336
28	6	5	1117		78	1	11	327
29	0	5	1104		79	0	10	315
30	5	2	1077		80	6	0	312
31	6	7	1068		81	3	11	302
32	6	4	1029		82	4	10	299
33	1	7	990		83	2	11	283
34	3	7	973		84	8	1	278
35	2	7	972		85	8	9	258
36	1	0	968		86	6	9	253
37	0	6	918		87	9	4	241
38	2	0	894		88	0	11	235
39	4	7	878		89	4	11	235
40	6	3	833		90	9	3	233
41	3	0	787		91	9	2	230
42	2	8	774		92	2	12	225
43	5	7	767		93	7	9	219
44	6	2	761		94	7	0	211
45	5	1	746		95	1	12	205
46	1	8	731		96	9	6	191
47	3	8	722		97	5	10	186
48	0	7	683		98	9	5	185
49	7	5	644		99	9	7	185
50	7	4	606		100	3	12	182

Tigers vs Athletics - ALDS Game #2 Simulation Results

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Score

Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences
1	2	3	4683		51	0	7	537
2	1	2	4571		52	1	8	510
3	3	4	3537		53	7	5	506
4	2	1	3498		54	4	7	480
5	3	2	3435		55	2	8	478
6	0	1	2743		56	5	7	455
7	1	3	2720		57	7	6	445
8	4	3	2567		58	8	2	435
9	3	1	2499		59	7	0	420
10	4	2	2389		60	8	3	420
11	2	4	2183		61	3	8	416
12	4	5	2162		62	8	1	416
13	0	2	2159		63	0	8	371
14	1	0	2141		64	8	4	370
15	1	4	2016		65	7	8	347
16	0	3	1933		66	1	9	346
17	4	1	1849		67	4	8	329
18	2	0	1833		68	2	9	317
19	5	4	1567		69	8	5	308
20	3	0	1558		70	9	2	304
21	3	5	1530		71	9	1	301
22	5	3	1520		72	9	3	283
23	5	2	1473		73	0	9	282
24	1	5	1465		74	8	6	276
25	2	5	1456		75	3	9	265
26	0	4	1411		76	8	0	261
27	5	6	1291		77	1	10	253
28	5	1	1164		78	5	8	248
29	4	0	1107		79	2	10	242
30	6	3	999		80	6	8	226
31	2	6	997		81	10	2	223
32	6	5	971		82	8	7	208
33	6	4	967		83	10	1	206
34	0	5	960		84	4	9	205
35	3	6	936		85	9	4	204
36	6	2	934		86	9	0	203
37	1	6	921		87	0	10	179
38	6	1	857		88	9	5	178
39	4	6	806		89	3	10	174
40	5	0	761		90	2	11	165
41	0	6	674		91	10	3	165
42	1	7	651		92	5	9	162
43	7	3	646		93	9	6	152
44	2	7	635		94	4	10	150
45	7	2	629		95	10	4	148
46	7	1	618		96	11	3	148
47	6	7	615		97	10	0	138
48	3	7	589		98	1	11	137
49	7	4	588		99	8	9	136
50	6	0	548		100	9	7	128

Tigers vs Athletics - ALDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences
1	1	2	4703		51	8	2	506
2	2	3	4616		52	1	7	493
3	2	1	3946		53	0	6	480
4	3	2	3764		54	3	7	460
5	3	4	3516		55	7	6	431
6	3	1	3010		56	8	3	429
7	0	1	2825		57	4	7	427
8	4	3	2707		58	5	7	405
9	1	3	2542		59	8	0	402
10	4	2	2490		60	8	4	374
11	1	0	2393		61	9	2	357
12	2	0	2374		62	1	8	348
13	4	1	2262		63	0	7	346
14	4	5	2138		64	2	8	338
15	2	4	2028		65	9	1	331
16	3	0	2002		66	8	5	313
17	0	2	1899		67	3	8	309
18	1	4	1740		68	9	3	300
19	5	2	1739		69	2	9	261
20	5	3	1686		70	4	8	260
21	5	4	1596		71	0	8	259
22	0	3	1564		72	7	8	249
23	5	1	1482		73	8	6	242
24	4	0	1453		74	5	8	238
25	3	5	1346		75	9	4	236
26	2	5	1345		76	10	1	236
27	6	2	1164		77	9	0	233
28	0	4	1102		78	1	9	231
29	6	3	1097		79	10	2	226
30	5	6	1093		80	10	3	218
31	1	5	1048		81	8	7	213
32	6	1	1030		82	3	9	204
33	5	0	1017		83	9	5	191
34	6	4	941		84	6	8	189
35	6	5	855		85	0	9	169
36	3	6	833		86	10	0	167
37	4	6	817		87	2	10	160
38	2	6	775		88	1	10	158
39	6	0	763		89	3	10	152
40	1	6	754		90	11	2	150
41	7	1	744		91	11	1	147
42	7	2	741		92	10	4	142
43	7	3	704		93	11	3	142
44	0	5	677		94	5	9	140
45	6	7	599		95	9	6	137
46	7	4	594		96	4	9	125
47	8	1	551		97	11	0	125
48	2	7	544		98	4	10	115
49	7	0	520		99	8	9	115
50	7	5	512		100	0	10	113

April 7th Simulations

April 7th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Reds	B.Myers vs S.LeCure	Reds	58.33%	58.15%	HOU 3-2
Red Sox	Indians	J.Lester vs F.Carmona	Red Sox	64.03%	58.77%	CLE 1-0
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs S.Marcum	Braves	53.27%	54.76%	MIL 4-2
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs C.Tillman	Orioles	56.52%	56.73%	BAL 9-5
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs E.Jackson	White Sox	56.52%	49.88%	CHA 5-1
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.15%	50.96%	COL 7-1
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.02%	55.35%	NYA 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	64.29%	58.82%	WAS 5-3
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	62.78%	PHI 11-0
Athletics	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	54.55%	49.83%	OAK 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 17.03%

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