Braves vs Dodgers - NLDS Game #4 Simulation Results

Notes: I had trouble calibrating what input stats to give Freddie Garcia. Vegas says the Dodgers have a 67.2% chance of winning this game. Best to go with them on this one.

Braves vs Dodgers - NLDS Game #3 Simulation Results

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Braves	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Braves	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	5813		51	6	7	473
2	2	3	5395		52	7	3	459
3	0	1	3846		53	7	1	449
4	3	4	3696		54	7	4	420
5	2	1	3611		55	3	8	382
6	3	2	3411		56	0	8	355
7	1	3	3354		57	5	7	351
8	0	2	2885		58	7	5	350
9	2	4	2661		59	1	9	307
10	1	4	2574		60	7	0	305
11	0	3	2564		61	8	2	305
12	3	1	2478		62	2	9	303
13	1	0	2425		63	7	6	286
14	4	3	2402		64	4	8	275
15	4	2	2123		65	8	3	271
16	4	5	2044		66	0	9	270
17	2	0	1974		67	8	1	265
18	0	4	1972		68	3	9	255
19	2	5	1868		69	5	8	232
20	1	5	1775		70	8	4	214
21	4	1	1775		71	9	2	213
22	3	5	1534		72	1	10	211
23	3	0	1531		73	8	5	193
24	0	5	1486		74	7	8	186
25	5	3	1472		75	8	0	185
26	5	4	1342		76	9	3	178
27	5	2	1339		77	2	10	170
28	1	6	1220		78	4	9	169
29	2	6	1216		79	9	1	157
30	5	1	1109		80	8	6	140
31	4	0	1076		81	6	8	139
32	3	6	1063		82	3	10	131
33	5	6	1055		83	9	4	130
34	0	6	992		84	0	10	127
35	6	2	824		85	8	7	121
36	1	7	798		86	9	5	117
37	2	7	773		87	9	0	114
38	4	6	770		88	0	11	108
39	6	4	759		89	4	10	107
40	6	3	752		90	10	2	102
41	5	0	677		91	2	11	100
42	6	5	675		92	5	9	93
43	6	1	661		93	1	11	91
44	3	7	626		94	10	1	91
45	0	7	604		95	6	9	86
46	1	8	525		96	10	4	86
47	4	7	499		97	3	11	82
48	2	8	488		98	10	3	81
49	7	2	482		99	9	6	79
50	6	0	474		100	2	12	69

Did Mattingly Blow The Bottom of the 7th Inning?

It's not easy to manage a major league baseball team.  Lots of eyeballs looking over your shoulders, lots of second guessers and definitely a lot at stake.  But there was some controversy or at the very least some second guessing as to how Dodgers manager Don Mattingly handled the bottom of the 7th inning pitching matchups.

The Dodgers were trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the 7th inning.  Chris Withrow was pitching with two outs and runners on second and third.  He had just struck out Elliot Johnson for the innings second out.  The Braves sent up rookie outfielder (left handed bat) Jose Constanza who had really made the Braves post-season roster as nothing more than a pinch runner and an emergency pinch hitter.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly decided to pull Withrow and go with the platoon matchup and bring in LHP Paco Rodriguez.  Of course Mattingly failed to think ahead to the Braves next move, or at least think clearly ahead and the Braves manager sent up the right handed hitting Reed Johnson to bat for Constanza.  On deck was the leadoff hitter Jayson Heyward.  Yes, he is left handed... but he also is pretty good.  At this point do you go against the platoon matchup but with the pinch hitter penalty (yes players hit significantly worse as pinch hitters than they do as starters) and pitch to Reed Johnson with first base open or do you walk Johnson and go lefty vs lefty against Jayson Heyward.  Mattingly chose to give the intentional walk to Johnson and face Jayson Heyward with Paco Rodriguez with the bases loaded.

So here are the three scenarios we need to look at in terms of which scenario has the highest win probability for the Dodgers (or lowest for the Braves).

1. Chris Withrow pitches to Jose Constanza with two outs and runners at second and third.
2. Paco Rodriguez pitches to Reed Johnson with two outs and runners at second and third.
3. Paco Rodriguez intentionally walks Reed Johnson and pitches to Jayson Heyward with two outs and the bases loaded.

                      Mattingly's Brain Table (100K Games Simulated)

Favored	ATL %	Pitcher	Bases	Outs	Scenario
ATL	84.607%	C.Withrow	2nd, 3rd	2	Pitch to Costanza
ATL	84.277%	P.Rodriguez	2nd, 3rd	2	Pitch to Reed Johnson
ATL	85.842%	P.Rodriguez	Loaded	2	Walk R.Johnson, pitch to Heyward

Well, it appears that the best decision was to have Paco Rodriguez pitch to Reed Johnson, followed by having Chris Withrow pitch to Jose Constanza and lastly to give the intentional walk to Reed Johnson and have Paco Rodriguez pitch to Jayson Heyward with the bases loaded.  But did it cost the Dodgers enough win probability to really have any heartburn over it?  Only if you think that 1.24% win probability is enough to complain over.

Dodgers vs Braves - NLDS Game #2 Simulation Results

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurrences
1	2	3	44292		51	7	5	5695
2	1	2	41105		52	7	0	5586
3	3	4	34887		53	8	1	5478
4	3	2	33977		54	1	7	5419
5	2	1	32445		55	8	3	5271
6	3	1	26841		56	0	6	5137
7	4	3	26615		57	7	6	5031
8	1	3	25131		58	5	7	4929
9	4	2	24704		59	8	4	4345
10	0	1	22837		60	2	8	4188
11	2	4	22805		61	8	0	3910
12	4	5	22671		62	3	8	3807
13	4	1	20505		63	8	5	3647
14	2	0	18789		64	9	2	3634
15	1	4	18611		65	1	8	3504
16	1	0	18202		66	0	7	3488
17	0	2	17869		67	9	3	3431
18	5	2	17831		68	9	1	3416
19	5	3	17462		69	4	8	3231
20	3	0	17048		70	7	8	3045
21	5	4	16887		71	5	8	3041
22	2	5	16112		72	9	4	2787
23	3	5	15989		73	2	9	2762
24	5	1	15262		74	8	6	2723
25	0	3	14713		75	3	9	2509
26	4	0	13400		76	9	0	2466
27	5	6	13021		77	6	8	2417
28	6	2	12479		78	0	8	2335
29	6	3	12320		79	1	9	2323
30	1	5	12137		80	10	2	2316
31	6	1	11439		81	8	7	2233
32	6	4	10845		82	10	1	2120
33	5	0	10816		83	10	3	2019
34	3	6	10745		84	9	5	2010
35	0	4	10297		85	4	9	1991
36	2	6	9670		86	2	10	1679
37	6	5	9613		87	10	4	1675
38	4	6	9531		88	9	6	1650
39	7	2	8718		89	5	9	1611
40	7	1	8226		90	3	10	1528
41	6	0	8069		91	10	0	1492
42	7	3	7975		92	1	10	1442
43	1	6	7949		93	0	9	1423
44	7	4	7193		94	6	9	1400
45	0	5	7140		95	8	9	1392
46	6	7	6773		96	11	2	1377
47	2	7	6339		97	11	1	1287
48	3	7	6165		98	10	5	1281
49	4	7	6043		99	4	10	1275
50	8	2	5802		100	9	7	1204

Dodgers vs Braves - NLDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurences		Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurrences
1	1	2	47001		51	1	6	4770
2	2	3	42847		52	9	2	4625
3	2	1	41808		53	0	5	4581
4	3	2	37060		54	6	7	4210
5	3	1	33610		55	7	5	4195
6	2	0	30329		56	8	4	3746
7	3	4	30271		57	9	3	3674
8	0	1	30010		58	10	1	3475
9	1	0	29772		59	3	7	3432
10	3	0	27509		60	4	7	3406
11	4	2	26162		61	2	7	3392
12	4	1	25589		62	10	0	3373
13	4	3	24562		63	7	6	3241
14	4	0	22636		64	10	2	3088
15	1	3	22294		65	1	7	3042
16	5	1	18761		66	0	6	2944
17	0	2	18736		67	5	7	2899
18	2	4	18559		68	9	4	2674
19	5	2	18429		69	8	5	2667
20	4	5	17383		70	10	3	2411
21	5	0	16086		71	11	1	2365
22	5	3	15905		72	11	0	2234
23	1	4	14626		73	2	8	2221
24	5	4	13654		74	1	8	2121
25	6	1	13558		75	11	2	2019
26	6	2	13033		76	0	7	1977
27	6	0	12605		77	8	6	1928
28	0	3	11975		78	3	8	1921
29	3	5	11522		79	4	8	1829
30	2	5	11369		80	9	5	1823
31	6	3	10884		81	7	8	1819
32	7	1	10191		82	10	4	1721
33	7	0	9474		83	5	8	1668
34	7	2	9013		84	11	3	1667
35	5	6	8764		85	12	1	1479
36	1	5	8336		86	8	7	1443
37	6	4	8310		87	0	8	1428
38	0	4	7706		88	2	9	1422
39	8	1	7624		89	1	9	1405
40	7	3	7576		90	6	8	1329
41	8	0	7067		91	12	2	1323
42	6	5	7033		92	12	0	1280
43	8	2	6578		93	9	6	1260
44	3	6	6511		94	3	9	1229
45	2	6	6083		95	10	5	1184
46	4	6	5992		96	11	4	1149
47	7	4	5596		97	2	10	1085
48	9	1	5260		98	1	10	992
49	8	3	5037		99	4	9	967
50	9	0	5007		100	12	3	962

The Braves Have Only Seen The Piece Of Crap Dodgers Team

The Braves and Dodgers faced each other seven times during the regular season with the Braves winning 5 out of 7 games.  All seven games were back when the Dodgers were a crappy team.  The Braves never had to face Kershaw and only had to face Greinke once.  A game the Dodgers won 5-0.  Below is a list of the seven games, showing the starting pitching matchup for each game and the Vegas win probabilities for each game.

@ATL May 17th, Loss 5-8, Ryu vs Maholm, Braves 58.1%
@ATL May 18th, Loss 1-3, Capuano vs Medlen, Braves 62.9%
@ATL May 19th, Loss 2-5, Magill vs Minor, Braves 64.3%
@LAD June 6th, WIN 5-0, Hudson vs Greinke, Braves 50.4%
@LAD June 7th, WIN 2-1, Maholm vs Ryu, Dodgers 52.5%
@LAD June 8th, LOSS 1-2, Medlen vs Fife, Braves 56.2%
@LAD June 9th, LOSS 1-8, Minor vs Magill, Braves 61.8%

Braves vs Dodgers - June 8th Simulation Results

Braves vs Dodgers - June 7th Simulation Results

Braves vs Dodgers - June 6th Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Braves - May 19th Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Braves - May 17th Simulation Results

August 19th - Most Likely Final Scores

               Dodgers vs Braves

                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
                     Today's Simulation Box Score

Rank	Favorite	LAN	ATL		Rank	Favorite	LAN	ATL
1	ATL	2	3		51	LAN	8	3
2	ATL	3	4		52	LAN	8	4
3	ATL	4	5		53	ATL	0	4
4	ATL	1	2		54	LAN	6	0
5	LAN	3	2		55	ATL	7	8
6	LAN	4	3		56	LAN	8	5
7	LAN	4	2		57	LAN	8	1
8	LAN	2	1		58	LAN	9	2
9	ATL	2	4		59	ATL	3	8
10	LAN	5	4		60	ATL	1	7
11	LAN	3	1		61	ATL	2	8
12	LAN	5	3		62	ATL	0	5
13	ATL	1	3		63	ATL	4	8
14	ATL	5	6		64	ATL	5	8
15	LAN	5	2		65	LAN	7	0
16	ATL	3	5		66	LAN	8	6
17	ATL	2	5		67	LAN	9	3
18	LAN	4	1		68	LAN	9	4
19	ATL	1	4		69	LAN	8	7
20	LAN	6	3		70	LAN	9	1
21	LAN	6	2		71	ATL	0	6
22	LAN	5	1		72	ATL	6	8
23	LAN	6	4		73	ATL	1	8
24	LAN	6	5		74	LAN	9	5
25	ATL	4	6		75	LAN	10	2
26	ATL	3	6		76	LAN	8	0
27	LAN	6	1		77	LAN	9	6
28	ATL	6	7		78	ATL	3	9
29	ATL	0	1		79	ATL	4	9
30	LAN	7	2		80	ATL	2	9
31	LAN	7	4		81	ATL	8	9
32	LAN	2	0		82	LAN	10	1
33	ATL	1	5		83	LAN	10	3
34	ATL	0	2		84	ATL	5	9
35	ATL	2	6		85	LAN	10	4
36	LAN	3	0		86	ATL	3	10
37	LAN	7	3		87	ATL	6	9
38	ATL	0	3		88	LAN	9	0
39	LAN	4	0		89	LAN	10	5
40	LAN	7	5		90	ATL	4	10
41	LAN	7	1		91	LAN	9	7
42	ATL	4	7		92	ATL	0	7
43	LAN	1	0		93	ATL	1	9
44	ATL	3	7		94	LAN	11	3
45	LAN	5	0		95	LAN	9	8
46	LAN	7	6		96	LAN	11	2
47	ATL	2	7		97	LAN	11	4
48	ATL	1	6		98	LAN	10	6
49	ATL	5	7		99	ATL	0	8
50	LAN	8	2		100	ATL	2	10

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 19th - Dodgers vs Braves Simulation Box Score

                  |     Wins    Losses         RS        RA
  Dodgers  +----------------------------------------------------
                  |    51421   48579       453926  411583

  Vegas Odds
             Money Line:  Braves -110/+100 (or Braves have a 51.22% chance of winning)
             Run Totals:    Over 7-1/2 -115, Under 7-1/2 -105

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.520	1.364	0.921	0.251	0.074	0.118	0.428	0.408	0.395	0.713	0.360
Mark Ellis	4.424	1.291	0.902	0.281	0.025	0.083	0.503	0.280	0.350	0.780	0.338
Matt Kemp	4.337	1.440	0.921	0.309	0.038	0.172	0.666	0.284	0.383	0.935	0.399
Andre Ethier	4.264	1.187	0.842	0.219	0.010	0.116	0.561	0.213	0.350	1.186	0.330
Hanley Ramirez	4.111	1.290	0.822	0.311	0.033	0.125	0.591	0.257	0.397	0.831	0.378
Juan Rivera	4.064	1.189	0.796	0.270	0.006	0.117	0.586	0.190	0.324	0.683	0.347
Luis Cruz	4.035	1.179	0.762	0.330	0.008	0.079	0.491	0.193	0.248	0.751	0.336
A.J. Ellis	3.677	1.057	0.775	0.206	0.009	0.066	0.429	0.177	0.501	0.855	0.349
Pitchers Spot	3.916	0.589	0.470	0.102	0.004	0.014	0.203	0.117	0.177	1.681	0.173
Braves
Michael Bourn	4.307	1.345	0.934	0.232	0.116	0.062	0.313	0.421	0.399	1.054	0.365
Martin Prado	4.196	1.311	0.953	0.256	0.030	0.070	0.480	0.288	0.332	0.651	0.353
Jason Heyward	3.975	1.151	0.726	0.229	0.040	0.157	0.600	0.245	0.536	1.043	0.375
Freddie Freeman	3.928	1.228	0.777	0.299	0.015	0.136	0.642	0.201	0.475	0.887	0.387
Dan Uggla	3.779	0.904	0.582	0.203	0.014	0.106	0.472	0.176	0.495	1.261	0.318
Juan Francisco	3.883	1.170	0.786	0.273	0.020	0.090	0.502	0.173	0.296	0.846	0.351
Brian McCann	3.625	1.068	0.705	0.219	0.006	0.139	0.536	0.152	0.447	0.699	0.370
Paul Janish	3.678	0.888	0.629	0.200	0.029	0.030	0.324	0.143	0.254	0.813	0.280
Pitchers Spot	3.681	0.495	0.403	0.078	0.004	0.011	0.157	0.109	0.163	1.800	0.157

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chad Billingsley	5.905	6.099	2.102	6.526	0.574	98.189	3.466
Kenley Jansen	0.451	0.728	0.166	0.337	0.032	7.428	1.985
Brandon League	0.415	0.347	0.148	0.468	0.023	6.800	3.310
Javy Guerra	0.600	0.524	0.297	0.677	0.042	10.297	3.850
Randy Choate	0.311	0.355	0.135	0.303	0.019	5.221	3.006
Ronald Belisario	0.252	0.235	0.102	0.277	0.020	4.209	3.601
Shawn Tolleson	0.568	0.522	0.283	0.657	0.071	9.851	4.488
Jamey Wright	0.275	0.242	0.164	0.315	0.019	4.877	4.148
Braves
Mike Minor	5.902	4.630	1.876	7.204	0.579	96.792	3.860
Craig Kimbrel	0.401	0.708	0.097	0.260	0.020	6.315	1.045
Jonny Venters	0.372	0.487	0.175	0.350	0.037	6.379	3.288
Eric O'Flaherty	0.617	0.596	0.198	0.678	0.045	10.074	3.189
Cristhian Martinez	0.295	0.318	0.071	0.303	0.027	4.678	2.956
Cory Gearrin	0.175	0.170	0.076	0.195	0.020	2.966	4.026
Luis Avilan	0.836	0.868	0.413	0.887	0.067	14.382	3.649
Chad Durbin	0.621	0.636	0.217	0.708	0.094	10.364	4.158

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 18th - Dodgers vs Braves Simulation Box Score

                  |      Wins    Losses         RS         RA
  Dodgers  +---------------------------------------------------
                  |     42828    57172     413954   454756

  Vegas Odds:
             Money Line:   Braves -147/+137 or (Braves have a 58.68% chance of winning)
             Run Total:       Over 8-1/2 -105,  Under 8-1/2 -115

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.478	1.327	0.898	0.246	0.072	0.111	0.383	0.396	0.365	0.719	0.352
Mark Ellis	4.403	1.226	0.884	0.245	0.026	0.070	0.445	0.259	0.281	0.878	0.316
Matt Kemp	4.325	1.364	0.908	0.268	0.041	0.146	0.587	0.274	0.302	1.039	0.371
Andre Ethier	4.173	1.218	0.793	0.289	0.011	0.124	0.576	0.218	0.379	1.023	0.352
Hanley Ramirez	4.105	1.222	0.811	0.268	0.036	0.106	0.525	0.244	0.318	0.925	0.352
James Loney	4.022	1.200	0.841	0.267	0.010	0.081	0.508	0.198	0.310	0.669	0.343
Luis Cruz	4.004	1.087	0.734	0.276	0.009	0.068	0.461	0.167	0.199	0.828	0.308
A.J. Ellis	3.662	1.005	0.744	0.190	0.009	0.062	0.405	0.158	0.444	0.911	0.331
Pitchers Spot	3.871	0.524	0.427	0.081	0.004	0.012	0.173	0.098	0.142	1.859	0.154
Braves
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Michael Bourn	4.339	1.448	1.005	0.248	0.123	0.071	0.362	0.472	0.416	0.818	0.387
Martin Prado	4.238	1.374	0.996	0.268	0.032	0.079	0.540	0.325	0.340	0.507	0.366
Jason Heyward	4.010	1.252	0.784	0.245	0.044	0.180	0.691	0.279	0.551	0.818	0.400
Chipper Jones	4.029	1.266	0.820	0.321	0.011	0.114	0.650	0.236	0.401	0.591	0.375
Freddie Freeman	3.862	1.280	0.804	0.311	0.015	0.150	0.690	0.210	0.482	0.682	0.408
Dan Uggla	3.703	0.977	0.621	0.219	0.014	0.122	0.528	0.181	0.494	0.959	0.345
David Ross	3.763	1.107	0.843	0.215	0.004	0.045	0.416	0.176	0.330	0.788	0.331
Paul Janish	3.716	0.950	0.674	0.213	0.030	0.033	0.374	0.162	0.266	0.633	0.295
Pitchers Spot	3.725	0.596	0.484	0.095	0.005	0.012	0.196	0.134	0.164	1.427	0.181

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Aaron Harang	5.612	4.100	2.144	7.027	0.590	93.961	4.251
Kenley Jansen	0.402	0.612	0.158	0.310	0.028	6.642	2.230
Brandon League	0.409	0.334	0.148	0.461	0.022	6.701	3.338
Javy Guerra	0.604	0.530	0.292	0.667	0.037	10.285	3.683
Randy Choate	0.320	0.361	0.123	0.310	0.016	5.278	2.730
Ronald Belisario	0.255	0.245	0.101	0.277	0.018	4.253	3.375
Shawn Tolleson	0.680	0.672	0.263	0.760	0.072	11.391	3.755
Jamey Wright	0.400	0.370	0.215	0.439	0.023	6.946	3.724
Braves
Ben Sheets	6.236	5.388	1.620	7.174	0.516	99.798	3.326
Craig Kimbrel	0.431	0.753	0.108	0.287	0.022	6.828	1.124
Jonny Venters	0.366	0.481	0.168	0.340	0.035	6.239	3.189
Eric O'Flaherty	0.614	0.599	0.195	0.664	0.044	9.980	3.127
Cristhian Martinez	0.279	0.297	0.072	0.290	0.027	4.456	3.096
Cory Gearrin	0.163	0.154	0.075	0.182	0.017	2.779	4.047
Luis Avilan	0.701	0.741	0.343	0.743	0.056	12.062	3.588
Chad Durbin	0.431	0.437	0.159	0.493	0.065	7.234	4.244

Note: Simulation ran with actual lineups.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 17th - Dodgers vs Braves Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins    Losses         RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------
                   |    49447   50553      421773   401132

  Vegas Results:
             Money Line: Braves -118/+108 or Braves chances of winning are 53.05%
             Run Total:     Over 7-1/2 -110, Under 7-1/2 -110 (or approximately 7.6 runs)

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.460	1.333	0.893	0.248	0.073	0.119	0.385	0.406	0.389	0.690	0.358
Mark Ellis	4.395	1.238	0.890	0.245	0.027	0.076	0.452	0.266	0.298	0.832	0.322
Matt Kemp	4.314	1.379	0.911	0.270	0.042	0.156	0.597	0.282	0.327	1.001	0.379
Andre Ethier	4.164	1.231	0.802	0.289	0.011	0.129	0.593	0.223	0.401	0.992	0.359
Hanley Ramirez	4.099	1.239	0.820	0.270	0.036	0.113	0.547	0.244	0.335	0.890	0.359
James Loney	4.014	1.207	0.846	0.266	0.011	0.085	0.526	0.195	0.327	0.644	0.348
Luis Cruz	4.004	1.106	0.748	0.277	0.009	0.072	0.481	0.163	0.210	0.795	0.314
Matt Treanor	3.831	0.963	0.706	0.194	0.006	0.057	0.386	0.146	0.284	0.892	0.292
Pitchers Spot	3.865	0.542	0.442	0.084	0.004	0.012	0.173	0.106	0.151	1.780	0.159
Braves
Michael Bourn	4.327	1.262	0.933	0.168	0.096	0.064	0.306	0.367	0.326	1.236	0.335
Martin Prado	4.146	1.333	0.926	0.287	0.028	0.093	0.495	0.279	0.368	0.563	0.372
Jason Heyward	4.029	1.108	0.735	0.172	0.035	0.165	0.571	0.216	0.438	1.215	0.351
Chipper Jones	3.981	1.213	0.774	0.307	0.010	0.122	0.583	0.203	0.373	0.717	0.367
Freddie Freeman	3.873	1.137	0.773	0.217	0.012	0.134	0.555	0.174	0.383	1.008	0.358
Dan Uggla	3.608	0.923	0.551	0.223	0.012	0.138	0.493	0.169	0.532	1.062	0.348
David Ross	3.681	1.058	0.777	0.225	0.004	0.052	0.388	0.162	0.350	0.869	0.332
Paul Janish	3.629	0.922	0.626	0.232	0.026	0.038	0.358	0.143	0.284	0.702	0.299
Pitchers Spot	3.644	0.541	0.430	0.093	0.004	0.013	0.182	0.109	0.178	1.569	0.174

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chris Capuano	5.95	6.02	1.99	6.56	0.621	98.0	3.53
Kenley Jansen	0.45	0.73	0.16	0.33	0.028	7.3	1.83
Brandon League	0.42	0.35	0.15	0.47	0.020	6.8	3.21
Javy Guerra	0.60	0.53	0.29	0.67	0.038	10.3	3.72
Randy Choate	0.30	0.33	0.14	0.29	0.018	5.0	3.14
Ronald Belisario	0.24	0.23	0.09	0.26	0.017	4.0	3.36
Shawn Tolleson	0.55	0.52	0.27	0.62	0.061	9.5	4.22
Jamey Wright	0.27	0.24	0.16	0.30	0.016	4.7	3.94
Braves
Tommy Hanson	6.13	4.95	1.67	7.15	0.546	98.3	3.56
Craig Kimbrel	0.42	0.73	0.09	0.27	0.022	6.5	1.05
Jonny Venters	0.38	0.50	0.16	0.35	0.036	6.4	3.02
Eric O'Flaherty	0.62	0.60	0.18	0.66	0.043	9.9	3.02
Cristhian Martinez	0.28	0.30	0.06	0.29	0.025	4.4	2.93
Cory Gearrin	0.16	0.15	0.06	0.17	0.017	2.7	3.90
Luis Avilan	0.76	0.79	0.33	0.78	0.057	12.7	3.39
Chad Durbin	0.50	0.50	0.17	0.56	0.073	8.2	4.13

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 17th - Dodgers vs Braves Likely Final Scores

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Favorte	LAN	ATL		Rank	Favorte	LAN	ATL
1	ATL	2	3		51	ATL	0	4
2	ATL	3	4		52	LAN	8	2
3	ATL	1	2		53	LAN	8	4
4	LAN	3	2		54	LAN	6	0
5	ATL	4	5		55	ATL	7	8
6	LAN	4	3		56	ATL	0	5
7	LAN	4	2		57	ATL	1	7
8	ATL	2	4		58	LAN	8	1
9	LAN	2	1		59	LAN	8	5
10	LAN	3	1		60	ATL	5	8
11	ATL	1	3		61	ATL	3	8
12	LAN	5	4		62	ATL	2	8
13	LAN	5	3		63	LAN	9	2
14	ATL	5	6		64	ATL	4	8
15	LAN	5	2		65	LAN	7	0
16	ATL	3	5		66	LAN	8	6
17	LAN	4	1		67	LAN	9	3
18	ATL	2	5		68	LAN	9	4
19	ATL	1	4		69	LAN	8	7
20	LAN	6	3		70	ATL	1	8
21	LAN	5	1		71	ATL	0	6
22	ATL	0	1		72	ATL	6	8
23	LAN	6	4		73	ATL	3	9
24	LAN	6	5		74	LAN	10	2
25	LAN	6	2		75	LAN	9	5
26	ATL	4	6		76	LAN	9	1
27	ATL	3	6		77	LAN	10	3
28	LAN	2	0		78	LAN	8	0
29	LAN	3	0		79	ATL	4	9
30	ATL	1	5		80	ATL	2	9
31	ATL	6	7		81	ATL	8	9
32	ATL	0	2		82	LAN	10	4
33	ATL	2	6		83	ATL	5	9
34	LAN	1	0		84	LAN	9	6
35	LAN	6	1		85	ATL	0	7
36	LAN	7	3		86	ATL	1	9
37	LAN	4	0		87	ATL	6	9
38	LAN	7	4		88	LAN	9	0
39	LAN	7	2		89	LAN	10	1
40	ATL	0	3		90	ATL	3	10
41	ATL	4	7		91	LAN	10	5
42	LAN	7	5		92	LAN	9	7
43	LAN	7	1		93	LAN	11	3
44	ATL	1	6		94	ATL	2	10
45	LAN	5	0		95	ATL	7	9
46	ATL	3	7		96	LAN	11	1
47	ATL	2	7		97	LAN	11	2
48	LAN	7	6		98	ATL	4	10
49	LAN	8	3		99	ATL	1	10
50	ATL	5	7		100	ATL	5	10

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

April 25th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TB	C.J. Wilson vs Jeremy Hellickson	LAA	50.62%	53.97%	TBD
ATL	LAN	Brandon Beachy vs Ted Lilly	LAN	50.86%	44.93%	TBD
KC	CLE	Luke Hochevar vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	62.34%	62.33%	TBD
NYA	TEX	Phil Hughes vs Scott Feldman	TEX	54.85%	55.04%	TBD
SF	CIN	Barry Zito vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	55.46%	58.82%	TBD
WAS	SD	Jordan Zimmerman vs Joe Wieland	WAS	56.43%	49.46%	TBD
COL	PIT	Juan Nicasio vs James McDonald	COL	51.34%	55.70%	TBD
COL	PIT	Jhoulys Chacin vs Charlie Morton	COL	53.60%	51.97%	TBD
HOU	MIL	J.A. Happ vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	64.97%	68.93%	TBD
STL	CHN	Lance Lynn vs Chris Volstad	STL	59.60%	58.94%	TBD
CHA	OAK	Chris Sale vs Jarrod Parker	CHA	55.26%	47.53%	TBD
PHI	ARI	Cole Hamels vs Trevor Cahill	PHI	50.74%	51.45%	TBD
SEA	DET	Felx Hernandez vs Adam Wilk	SEA	50.86%	43.02%	TBD
TOR	BAL	Kyle Drabek vs Jason Hammel	BAL	50.62%	52.38%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Mark Buehrle vs R.A. Dickey	FLA	51.57%	55.24%	TBD
BOS	MIN	Clay Buchholz vs Liam Hendriks	BOS	53.60%	51.54%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 24th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TB	Ervin Santana vs David Price	TB	59.27%	54.35%	TBD
ATL	LAN	Mike Minor vs Aaron Harang	ATL	52.49%	53.45%	TBD
KC	CLE	Jonathan Sanchez vs Derek Lowe	CLE	55.46%	61.20%	TBD
NYA	TEX	Hiroki Kuroda vs Yu Darvish	TEX	57.36%	57.58%	TBD
SF	CIN	Matt Cain vs Mat Latos	CIN	50.25%	54.26%	TBD
WAS	SD	Gio Gonzalez vs Clayton Richard	WAS	52.72%	52.13%	TBD
COL	PIT	Jamie Moyer vs Kevin Correia	PIT	51.10%	44.61%	TBD
SEA	DET	Jason Vargas vs Max Scherzer	DET	63.83%	65.51%	TBD
TOR	BAL	Henderson Alvarez vs Tommy Hunter	TOR	52.49%	47.16%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Josh Johnson vs Johan Santana	FLA	51.81%	59.29%	TBD
STL	CHN	Adam Wainwright vs Jeff Samardzija	STL	57.17%	60.50%	TBD
BOS	MIN	Josh Beckett vs Nick Blackburn	BOS	60.08%	55.67%	TBD
HOU	MIL	Bud Norris vs Randy Wolf	MIL	56.62%	63.09%	TBD
PHI	ARI	Vance Worley vs Josh Collmenter	PHI	52.27%	54.39%	TBD
CHA	OAK	Gavin Floyd vs Tom Milone	OAK	50.74%	53.72%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 23rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	LAN	Jair Jurrjens vs Chris Capuano	LAN	TBD	52.78%	TBD
NYA	TEX	C.C. Sabathia vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	50.53%	TBD
TOR	KC	Brandon Morrow vs Bruce Chen	TOR	TBD	50.43%	TBD
COL	PIT	Jamie Moyer vs Kevin Correia	COL	TBD	55.32%	TBD
SF	NYN	Tim Lincecum vs Miguel Batista	SF	TBD	53.70%	TBD
SF	NYN	Madison Bumgarner vs Dillon Gee	SF	TBD	61.61%	TBD
STL	CHN	Jaime Garcia vs Matt Garza	STL	TBD	52.06%	TBD
BOS	MIN	Jon Lester vs Jason Marquis	BOS	TBD	55.56%	TBD
HOU	MIL	Lucas Harrell vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	71.08%	TBD
PHI	ARI	Kyle Kendrick vs Wade Miley	PHI	TBD	52.95%	TBD
CHA	OAK	Jake Peavy vs Bartolo Colon	OAK	TBD	51.21%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

September 4th Simulations

Best Team In Baseball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Braves	C.Kershaw vs R.Delgado	Dodgers	56.67%	52.93%	ATL 4-3
Twins	Angels	K.Slowey vs J.Pineiro	Angels	60.86%	52.63%	TBD
TOR	NYA	Brett Cecil vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	70.59%	75.29%	TBD
NYN	WAS	Mike Pelfrey vs Livan Hernandez	WAS	51.10%	55.36%	TBD
BAL	TB	Jeremy Guthrie vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	63.57%	56.03%	TBD
TEX	BOS	Matt Harrison vs John Lackey	BOS	54.85%	51.13%	TBD
ARI	SF	Daniel Hudson vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	53.38%	52.44%	TBD
PHI	FLA	Roy Halladay vs Anibal Sanchez	PHI	66.67%	58.13%	TBD
CIN	STL	Bronson Arroyo vs Edwin Jackson	STL	60.86%	64.50%	TBD
COL	SD	Aaron Cook vs Mat Latos	SD	57.72%	54.88%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Shaun Marcum vs Wandy Rodriguez	MIL	59.60%	53.16%	TBD
PIT	CHN	Charlie Morton vs Randy Wells	CHN	55.06%	53.08%	TBD
SEA	OAK	Blake Beavan vs Trevor Cahill	OAK	61.46%	64.52%	TBD
CHA	DET	Mark Buehrle vs Max Scherzer	DET	56.80%	58.96%	TBD
CLE	KC	Jeanmar Gomez vs Jeff Francis	KC	56.24%	54.84%	TBD

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