Best Lineup - Cleveland Indians

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cleveland Indians.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds

See the results after the jump

Rays vs Indians - AL WildCard Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences
1	1	2	51522		51	7	4	4913
2	2	3	49197		52	1	8	4537
3	2	1	40859		53	4	7	4490
4	3	2	37421		54	2	8	4489
5	3	4	34646		55	7	5	4367
6	0	1	33286		56	7	0	4194
7	3	1	29224		57	7	6	3688
8	1	3	28554		58	5	7	3665
9	1	0	27262		59	8	2	3628
10	4	3	26146		60	0	8	3622
11	0	2	24932		61	3	8	3618
12	4	2	24098		62	8	1	3548
13	2	0	23317		63	8	3	3207
14	2	4	22288		64	4	8	2944
15	1	4	21749		65	2	9	2924
16	0	3	21501		66	1	9	2862
17	4	5	20662		67	8	4	2806
18	4	1	19846		68	8	0	2432
19	3	0	17980		69	0	9	2369
20	0	4	16730		70	8	5	2320
21	5	2	15502		71	7	8	2310
22	5	3	15466		72	3	9	2275
23	5	4	15170		73	9	2	2150
24	1	5	15155		74	5	8	2142
25	2	5	14991		75	9	1	1953
26	3	5	13935		76	8	6	1876
27	5	1	13542		77	9	3	1857
28	4	0	13080		78	1	10	1817
29	0	5	11160		79	4	9	1691
30	5	6	10599		80	2	10	1689
31	2	6	10465		81	6	8	1580
32	1	6	9981		82	8	7	1574
33	6	2	9567		83	9	4	1538
34	6	3	9494		84	0	10	1438
35	5	0	9451		85	9	0	1417
36	6	1	8906		86	3	10	1403
37	3	6	8746		87	5	9	1276
38	6	4	8548		88	9	5	1254
39	0	6	8087		89	10	2	1199
40	6	5	7614		90	4	10	1091
41	4	6	7497		91	1	11	1057
42	1	7	6849		92	2	11	1053
43	2	7	6653		93	10	1	1042
44	6	0	6204		94	9	6	1038
45	7	2	6042		95	10	3	1016
46	3	7	5817		96	10	4	903
47	7	1	5667		97	8	9	900
48	7	3	5553		98	6	9	875
49	0	7	5511		99	3	11	860
50	6	7	5050		100	9	7	819

April 7th Simulations

April 7th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Reds	B.Myers vs S.LeCure	Reds	58.33%	58.15%	HOU 3-2
Red Sox	Indians	J.Lester vs F.Carmona	Red Sox	64.03%	58.77%	CLE 1-0
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs S.Marcum	Braves	53.27%	54.76%	MIL 4-2
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs C.Tillman	Orioles	56.52%	56.73%	BAL 9-5
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs E.Jackson	White Sox	56.52%	49.88%	CHA 5-1
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.15%	50.96%	COL 7-1
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.02%	55.35%	NYA 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	64.29%	58.82%	WAS 5-3
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	62.78%	PHI 11-0
Athletics	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	54.55%	49.83%	OAK 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 17.03%

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