Athletics vs Tigers - ALDS Game #4 Simulation Results

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Athletics	Tigers	Occurrences		Rank	Athletics	Tigers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4332		51	2	9	595
2	3	4	3991		52	7	6	591
3	1	2	3538		53	7	8	585
4	4	5	2887		54	4	0	581
5	3	2	2534		55	4	8	571
6	1	3	2438		56	6	1	569
7	2	4	2437		57	0	8	554
8	4	3	2248		58	7	2	550
9	2	1	2137		59	1	9	549
10	1	4	2056		60	7	3	538
11	3	5	1958		61	3	9	481
12	2	5	1877		62	5	8	481
13	5	6	1844		63	2	10	468
14	1	5	1701		64	1	10	449
15	0	3	1639		65	3	10	419
16	4	2	1638		66	5	0	408
17	5	4	1628		67	0	9	406
18	3	1	1612		68	4	9	394
19	0	1	1556		69	6	8	374
20	0	2	1505		70	8	3	372
21	0	4	1416		71	7	1	367
22	5	3	1400		72	8	2	359
23	2	6	1377		73	8	4	357
24	3	6	1361		74	8	5	357
25	4	6	1204		75	8	7	353
26	1	6	1191		76	5	9	340
27	4	1	1152		77	8	6	336
28	6	5	1117		78	1	11	327
29	0	5	1104		79	0	10	315
30	5	2	1077		80	6	0	312
31	6	7	1068		81	3	11	302
32	6	4	1029		82	4	10	299
33	1	7	990		83	2	11	283
34	3	7	973		84	8	1	278
35	2	7	972		85	8	9	258
36	1	0	968		86	6	9	253
37	0	6	918		87	9	4	241
38	2	0	894		88	0	11	235
39	4	7	878		89	4	11	235
40	6	3	833		90	9	3	233
41	3	0	787		91	9	2	230
42	2	8	774		92	2	12	225
43	5	7	767		93	7	9	219
44	6	2	761		94	7	0	211
45	5	1	746		95	1	12	205
46	1	8	731		96	9	6	191
47	3	8	722		97	5	10	186
48	0	7	683		98	9	5	185
49	7	5	644		99	9	7	185
50	7	4	606		100	3	12	182

Braves vs Dodgers - NLDS Game #4 Simulation Results

Notes: I had trouble calibrating what input stats to give Freddie Garcia. Vegas says the Dodgers have a 67.2% chance of winning this game. Best to go with them on this one.

Braves vs Dodgers - NLDS Game #3 Simulation Results

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Braves	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Braves	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	5813		51	6	7	473
2	2	3	5395		52	7	3	459
3	0	1	3846		53	7	1	449
4	3	4	3696		54	7	4	420
5	2	1	3611		55	3	8	382
6	3	2	3411		56	0	8	355
7	1	3	3354		57	5	7	351
8	0	2	2885		58	7	5	350
9	2	4	2661		59	1	9	307
10	1	4	2574		60	7	0	305
11	0	3	2564		61	8	2	305
12	3	1	2478		62	2	9	303
13	1	0	2425		63	7	6	286
14	4	3	2402		64	4	8	275
15	4	2	2123		65	8	3	271
16	4	5	2044		66	0	9	270
17	2	0	1974		67	8	1	265
18	0	4	1972		68	3	9	255
19	2	5	1868		69	5	8	232
20	1	5	1775		70	8	4	214
21	4	1	1775		71	9	2	213
22	3	5	1534		72	1	10	211
23	3	0	1531		73	8	5	193
24	0	5	1486		74	7	8	186
25	5	3	1472		75	8	0	185
26	5	4	1342		76	9	3	178
27	5	2	1339		77	2	10	170
28	1	6	1220		78	4	9	169
29	2	6	1216		79	9	1	157
30	5	1	1109		80	8	6	140
31	4	0	1076		81	6	8	139
32	3	6	1063		82	3	10	131
33	5	6	1055		83	9	4	130
34	0	6	992		84	0	10	127
35	6	2	824		85	8	7	121
36	1	7	798		86	9	5	117
37	2	7	773		87	9	0	114
38	4	6	770		88	0	11	108
39	6	4	759		89	4	10	107
40	6	3	752		90	10	2	102
41	5	0	677		91	2	11	100
42	6	5	675		92	5	9	93
43	6	1	661		93	1	11	91
44	3	7	626		94	10	1	91
45	0	7	604		95	6	9	86
46	1	8	525		96	10	4	86
47	4	7	499		97	3	11	82
48	2	8	488		98	10	3	81
49	7	2	482		99	9	6	79
50	6	0	474		100	2	12	69

Cardinals vs Pirates - NLDS Game #3 Simulation Results

                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Cardinals	Pirates	Occurrences		Rank	Cardinals	Pirates	Occurrences
1	2	3	4469		51	2	8	547
2	1	2	4389		52	7	4	532
3	3	4	3334		53	7	5	494
4	0	1	3146		54	5	7	492
5	1	3	2992		55	3	8	489
6	2	1	2872		56	7	1	476
7	3	2	2834		57	0	8	470
8	2	4	2659		58	6	0	439
9	1	4	2624		59	7	6	427
10	0	2	2564		60	8	3	404
11	0	3	2480		61	8	2	385
12	4	5	2246		62	8	1	361
13	4	3	2160		63	2	9	359
14	2	5	2131		64	1	9	358
15	0	4	2069		65	4	8	341
16	3	1	2046		66	8	4	331
17	1	0	2007		67	5	8	320
18	1	5	1888		68	3	9	317
19	4	2	1885		69	7	0	305
20	3	5	1750		70	0	9	298
21	2	0	1711		71	8	5	295
22	0	5	1653		72	7	8	287
23	5	4	1398		73	9	2	266
24	4	1	1387		74	4	9	238
25	5	3	1375		75	9	3	238
26	1	6	1366		76	6	8	237
27	2	6	1361		77	8	0	230
28	5	2	1289		78	8	6	221
29	5	6	1251		79	8	7	215
30	3	6	1234		80	9	4	210
31	0	6	1142		81	0	10	198
32	3	0	1072		82	1	10	195
33	5	1	1014		83	9	1	191
34	1	7	969		84	5	9	189
35	4	6	967		85	2	10	177
36	6	3	916		86	3	10	168
37	6	4	890		87	10	2	168
38	2	7	877		88	9	5	167
39	4	0	853		89	10	3	153
40	6	5	835		90	6	9	151
41	6	2	815		91	4	10	146
42	0	7	808		92	9	6	139
43	3	7	757		93	9	0	133
44	6	1	724		94	10	1	130
45	4	7	670		95	10	4	125
46	6	7	667		96	2	11	122
47	7	3	638		97	0	11	116
48	5	0	617		98	8	9	111
49	1	8	615		99	1	11	104
50	7	2	606		100	11	2	102

Tigers vs Athletics - ALDS Game #2 Simulation Results

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Score

Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences
1	2	3	4683		51	0	7	537
2	1	2	4571		52	1	8	510
3	3	4	3537		53	7	5	506
4	2	1	3498		54	4	7	480
5	3	2	3435		55	2	8	478
6	0	1	2743		56	5	7	455
7	1	3	2720		57	7	6	445
8	4	3	2567		58	8	2	435
9	3	1	2499		59	7	0	420
10	4	2	2389		60	8	3	420
11	2	4	2183		61	3	8	416
12	4	5	2162		62	8	1	416
13	0	2	2159		63	0	8	371
14	1	0	2141		64	8	4	370
15	1	4	2016		65	7	8	347
16	0	3	1933		66	1	9	346
17	4	1	1849		67	4	8	329
18	2	0	1833		68	2	9	317
19	5	4	1567		69	8	5	308
20	3	0	1558		70	9	2	304
21	3	5	1530		71	9	1	301
22	5	3	1520		72	9	3	283
23	5	2	1473		73	0	9	282
24	1	5	1465		74	8	6	276
25	2	5	1456		75	3	9	265
26	0	4	1411		76	8	0	261
27	5	6	1291		77	1	10	253
28	5	1	1164		78	5	8	248
29	4	0	1107		79	2	10	242
30	6	3	999		80	6	8	226
31	2	6	997		81	10	2	223
32	6	5	971		82	8	7	208
33	6	4	967		83	10	1	206
34	0	5	960		84	4	9	205
35	3	6	936		85	9	4	204
36	6	2	934		86	9	0	203
37	1	6	921		87	0	10	179
38	6	1	857		88	9	5	178
39	4	6	806		89	3	10	174
40	5	0	761		90	2	11	165
41	0	6	674		91	10	3	165
42	1	7	651		92	5	9	162
43	7	3	646		93	9	6	152
44	2	7	635		94	4	10	150
45	7	2	629		95	10	4	148
46	7	1	618		96	11	3	148
47	6	7	615		97	10	0	138
48	3	7	589		98	1	11	137
49	7	4	588		99	8	9	136
50	6	0	548		100	9	7	128

Rays vs Red Sox - ALDS Game #2 Simulation Results

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences
1	2	3	4099		51	7	6	652
2	3	4	3613		52	1	7	622
3	1	2	3298		53	8	2	585
4	3	2	2790		54	8	3	568
5	4	5	2692		55	6	0	561
6	4	3	2431		56	0	6	542
7	2	4	2373		57	2	8	540
8	2	1	2246		58	3	8	534
9	1	3	2184		59	8	4	527
10	4	2	2150		60	7	8	499
11	3	1	2042		61	4	8	478
12	5	6	1768		62	1	8	470
13	3	5	1745		63	5	8	466
14	5	3	1739		64	8	1	463
15	1	4	1731		65	7	0	441
16	4	1	1719		66	8	5	436
17	2	5	1705		67	9	3	434
18	5	4	1702		68	9	2	424
19	5	2	1693		69	0	7	415
20	0	1	1630		70	3	9	393
21	0	2	1413		71	2	9	365
22	3	6	1361		72	8	6	358
23	5	1	1306		73	9	1	345
24	6	4	1248		74	6	8	341
25	1	5	1234		75	8	7	328
26	6	3	1234		76	9	4	320
27	0	3	1226		77	4	9	319
28	4	6	1215		78	1	9	312
29	6	2	1215		79	9	5	301
30	2	0	1208		80	8	0	300
31	2	6	1137		81	0	8	284
32	3	0	1117		82	10	2	284
33	6	5	1087		83	5	9	274
34	1	0	1080		84	3	10	261
35	4	0	1029		85	10	3	255
36	0	4	969		86	10	4	242
37	6	1	966		87	9	6	239
38	6	7	921		88	2	10	231
39	7	2	896		89	6	9	228
40	7	3	868		90	8	9	228
41	7	4	861		91	10	1	209
42	1	6	855		92	1	10	203
43	4	7	841		93	9	0	195
44	3	7	824		94	0	9	194
45	2	7	802		95	10	5	192
46	7	5	734		96	7	9	186
47	5	0	731		97	4	10	181
48	5	7	699		98	11	3	177
49	7	1	689		99	9	7	175
50	0	5	678		100	5	10	171

Did Mattingly Blow The Bottom of the 7th Inning?

It's not easy to manage a major league baseball team.  Lots of eyeballs looking over your shoulders, lots of second guessers and definitely a lot at stake.  But there was some controversy or at the very least some second guessing as to how Dodgers manager Don Mattingly handled the bottom of the 7th inning pitching matchups.

The Dodgers were trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the 7th inning.  Chris Withrow was pitching with two outs and runners on second and third.  He had just struck out Elliot Johnson for the innings second out.  The Braves sent up rookie outfielder (left handed bat) Jose Constanza who had really made the Braves post-season roster as nothing more than a pinch runner and an emergency pinch hitter.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly decided to pull Withrow and go with the platoon matchup and bring in LHP Paco Rodriguez.  Of course Mattingly failed to think ahead to the Braves next move, or at least think clearly ahead and the Braves manager sent up the right handed hitting Reed Johnson to bat for Constanza.  On deck was the leadoff hitter Jayson Heyward.  Yes, he is left handed... but he also is pretty good.  At this point do you go against the platoon matchup but with the pinch hitter penalty (yes players hit significantly worse as pinch hitters than they do as starters) and pitch to Reed Johnson with first base open or do you walk Johnson and go lefty vs lefty against Jayson Heyward.  Mattingly chose to give the intentional walk to Johnson and face Jayson Heyward with Paco Rodriguez with the bases loaded.

So here are the three scenarios we need to look at in terms of which scenario has the highest win probability for the Dodgers (or lowest for the Braves).

1. Chris Withrow pitches to Jose Constanza with two outs and runners at second and third.
2. Paco Rodriguez pitches to Reed Johnson with two outs and runners at second and third.
3. Paco Rodriguez intentionally walks Reed Johnson and pitches to Jayson Heyward with two outs and the bases loaded.

                      Mattingly's Brain Table (100K Games Simulated)

Favored	ATL %	Pitcher	Bases	Outs	Scenario
ATL	84.607%	C.Withrow	2nd, 3rd	2	Pitch to Costanza
ATL	84.277%	P.Rodriguez	2nd, 3rd	2	Pitch to Reed Johnson
ATL	85.842%	P.Rodriguez	Loaded	2	Walk R.Johnson, pitch to Heyward

Well, it appears that the best decision was to have Paco Rodriguez pitch to Reed Johnson, followed by having Chris Withrow pitch to Jose Constanza and lastly to give the intentional walk to Reed Johnson and have Paco Rodriguez pitch to Jayson Heyward with the bases loaded.  But did it cost the Dodgers enough win probability to really have any heartburn over it?  Only if you think that 1.24% win probability is enough to complain over.

Tigers vs Athletics - ALDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Athletics	Occurrences
1	1	2	4703		51	8	2	506
2	2	3	4616		52	1	7	493
3	2	1	3946		53	0	6	480
4	3	2	3764		54	3	7	460
5	3	4	3516		55	7	6	431
6	3	1	3010		56	8	3	429
7	0	1	2825		57	4	7	427
8	4	3	2707		58	5	7	405
9	1	3	2542		59	8	0	402
10	4	2	2490		60	8	4	374
11	1	0	2393		61	9	2	357
12	2	0	2374		62	1	8	348
13	4	1	2262		63	0	7	346
14	4	5	2138		64	2	8	338
15	2	4	2028		65	9	1	331
16	3	0	2002		66	8	5	313
17	0	2	1899		67	3	8	309
18	1	4	1740		68	9	3	300
19	5	2	1739		69	2	9	261
20	5	3	1686		70	4	8	260
21	5	4	1596		71	0	8	259
22	0	3	1564		72	7	8	249
23	5	1	1482		73	8	6	242
24	4	0	1453		74	5	8	238
25	3	5	1346		75	9	4	236
26	2	5	1345		76	10	1	236
27	6	2	1164		77	9	0	233
28	0	4	1102		78	1	9	231
29	6	3	1097		79	10	2	226
30	5	6	1093		80	10	3	218
31	1	5	1048		81	8	7	213
32	6	1	1030		82	3	9	204
33	5	0	1017		83	9	5	191
34	6	4	941		84	6	8	189
35	6	5	855		85	0	9	169
36	3	6	833		86	10	0	167
37	4	6	817		87	2	10	160
38	2	6	775		88	1	10	158
39	6	0	763		89	3	10	152
40	1	6	754		90	11	2	150
41	7	1	744		91	11	1	147
42	7	2	741		92	10	4	142
43	7	3	704		93	11	3	142
44	0	5	677		94	5	9	140
45	6	7	599		95	9	6	137
46	7	4	594		96	4	9	125
47	8	1	551		97	11	0	125
48	2	7	544		98	4	10	115
49	7	0	520		99	8	9	115
50	7	5	512		100	0	10	113

Dodgers vs Braves - NLDS Game #2 Simulation Results

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurrences
1	2	3	44292		51	7	5	5695
2	1	2	41105		52	7	0	5586
3	3	4	34887		53	8	1	5478
4	3	2	33977		54	1	7	5419
5	2	1	32445		55	8	3	5271
6	3	1	26841		56	0	6	5137
7	4	3	26615		57	7	6	5031
8	1	3	25131		58	5	7	4929
9	4	2	24704		59	8	4	4345
10	0	1	22837		60	2	8	4188
11	2	4	22805		61	8	0	3910
12	4	5	22671		62	3	8	3807
13	4	1	20505		63	8	5	3647
14	2	0	18789		64	9	2	3634
15	1	4	18611		65	1	8	3504
16	1	0	18202		66	0	7	3488
17	0	2	17869		67	9	3	3431
18	5	2	17831		68	9	1	3416
19	5	3	17462		69	4	8	3231
20	3	0	17048		70	7	8	3045
21	5	4	16887		71	5	8	3041
22	2	5	16112		72	9	4	2787
23	3	5	15989		73	2	9	2762
24	5	1	15262		74	8	6	2723
25	0	3	14713		75	3	9	2509
26	4	0	13400		76	9	0	2466
27	5	6	13021		77	6	8	2417
28	6	2	12479		78	0	8	2335
29	6	3	12320		79	1	9	2323
30	1	5	12137		80	10	2	2316
31	6	1	11439		81	8	7	2233
32	6	4	10845		82	10	1	2120
33	5	0	10816		83	10	3	2019
34	3	6	10745		84	9	5	2010
35	0	4	10297		85	4	9	1991
36	2	6	9670		86	2	10	1679
37	6	5	9613		87	10	4	1675
38	4	6	9531		88	9	6	1650
39	7	2	8718		89	5	9	1611
40	7	1	8226		90	3	10	1528
41	6	0	8069		91	10	0	1492
42	7	3	7975		92	1	10	1442
43	1	6	7949		93	0	9	1423
44	7	4	7193		94	6	9	1400
45	0	5	7140		95	8	9	1392
46	6	7	6773		96	11	2	1377
47	2	7	6339		97	11	1	1287
48	3	7	6165		98	10	5	1281
49	4	7	6043		99	4	10	1275
50	8	2	5802		100	9	7	1204

Rays vs Red Sox - ALDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences
1	2	3	37101		51	7	3	6863
2	3	4	35129		52	4	8	6623
3	1	2	30573		53	7	2	6542
4	4	5	27358		54	7	5	6541
5	2	4	22768		55	7	6	6316
6	3	2	22302		56	0	7	6304
7	1	3	22020		57	7	8	6117
8	4	3	20521		58	5	8	6093
9	3	5	18616		59	2	9	5873
10	5	6	18527		60	5	0	5641
11	2	5	18485		61	3	9	5556
12	2	1	18341		62	1	9	5161
13	1	4	18255		63	7	1	5096
14	4	2	17097		64	8	3	4876
15	0	1	16066		65	0	8	4840
16	5	4	15964		66	8	4	4675
17	3	1	15754		67	6	8	4652
18	3	6	14794		68	4	9	4635
19	1	5	14606		69	8	2	4391
20	0	2	14557		70	8	5	4323
21	5	3	14501		71	2	10	4135
22	2	6	13621		72	6	0	4084
23	0	3	13356		73	8	6	4013
24	4	6	13072		74	3	10	3905
25	5	2	12524		75	5	9	3895
26	4	1	12246		76	1	10	3653
27	1	6	11851		77	8	1	3519
28	0	4	11333		78	8	7	3477
29	6	7	10974		79	0	9	3466
30	2	7	10462		80	6	9	3301
31	6	5	10431		81	4	10	3282
32	6	4	10413		82	8	9	3177
33	3	7	10381		83	9	3	3177
34	4	7	10280		84	9	4	3016
35	6	3	10083		85	7	0	3015
36	5	1	9626		86	9	2	2905
37	1	0	9569		87	9	5	2833
38	0	5	9483		88	2	11	2682
39	2	0	9439		89	3	11	2637
40	1	7	9125		90	5	10	2588
41	6	2	9071		91	7	9	2558
42	5	7	8151		92	9	6	2546
43	0	6	8105		93	0	10	2433
44	3	0	8101		94	1	11	2403
45	2	8	8063		95	9	1	2349
46	3	8	7574		96	4	11	2204
47	1	8	7250		97	9	7	2087
48	7	4	7149		98	10	3	2079
49	6	1	7098		99	8	0	2029
50	4	0	7055		100	6	10	1955

Pirates vs Cardinals - NLDS Game #2 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurrences		Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	1	2	47488		51	2	8	5936
2	2	3	46126		52	7	4	5384
3	3	4	35998		53	0	8	5198
4	0	1	32110		54	6	0	5095
5	1	3	29872		55	3	8	4935
6	3	2	29245		56	7	1	4809
7	2	1	28892		57	5	7	4800
8	0	2	25235		58	7	5	4586
9	2	4	24689		59	1	9	4335
10	4	5	22910		60	2	9	4154
11	1	4	22583		61	7	6	3966
12	3	1	22562		62	4	8	3705
13	0	3	22119		63	8	3	3535
14	4	3	22065		64	0	9	3485
15	4	2	20544		65	3	9	3433
16	1	0	18798		66	8	2	3430
17	2	5	18428		67	8	4	3271
18	4	1	17354		68	7	0	3129
19	0	4	16930		69	5	8	3073
20	2	0	16766		70	7	8	2901
21	1	5	15985		71	1	10	2899
22	3	5	15804		72	8	1	2862
23	5	2	14615		73	8	5	2804
24	5	3	14508		74	2	10	2764
25	5	4	13940		75	4	9	2484
26	3	0	13796		76	0	10	2378
27	0	5	13208		77	3	10	2377
28	5	6	12807		78	6	8	2185
29	5	1	12093		79	8	6	2112
30	1	6	11997		80	9	3	1933
31	2	6	11739		81	1	11	1884
32	3	6	11565		82	8	0	1842
33	4	0	10818		83	9	4	1824
34	0	6	9723		84	9	2	1819
35	6	2	9685		85	5	9	1803
36	6	3	9509		86	4	10	1793
37	4	6	8974		87	8	7	1793
38	1	7	8696		88	2	11	1767
39	6	4	8569		89	0	11	1600
40	2	7	8301		90	9	5	1598
41	6	5	8033		91	3	11	1533
42	6	1	7929		92	9	1	1519
43	5	0	7886		93	6	9	1404
44	0	7	7182		94	9	6	1268
45	3	7	7084		95	8	9	1206
46	6	7	6503		96	5	10	1204
47	4	7	6251		97	1	12	1202
48	1	8	6063		98	4	11	1148
49	7	3	6053		99	2	12	1116
50	7	2	6018		100	10	3	1023

Divisional Series Simulation Results - 10/4

Away	Home	Away Starter	Home Starter	Vegas Fave	Vegas Win%	Vegas Runs	Sim Win%	Sim Runs
Pirates	Cardinals	Gerrit Cole	Lance Lynn	Cardinals	56.24%	6.90	60.43%	6.82
Rays	Red Sox	Matt Moore	Jon Lester	Red Sox	56.80%	7.47	61.63%	8.36
Dodgers	Braves	Zack Greinke	Mike Minor	Braves	50.37%	6.40	48.74%	7.05
Tigers	Athletics	Max Scherzer	Bartolo Colon	Tigers	53.81%	6.54	52.71%	6.77

Pirates vs Cardinals - NLDS Game #1 Simulation Results

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurences		Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurences
1	1	2	52649		51	6	7	5527
2	2	3	47906		52	7	3	5424
3	0	1	37457		53	0	8	5095
4	3	4	33903		54	7	1	4922
5	2	1	32679		55	7	4	4799
6	1	3	30363		56	3	8	4423
7	3	2	29342		57	1	9	4167
8	0	2	28071		58	5	7	4084
9	3	1	24166		59	7	5	4050
10	2	4	24081		60	2	9	3807
11	1	0	23254		61	0	9	3500
12	1	4	23062		62	7	6	3332
13	0	3	22645		63	7	0	3316
14	4	3	20981		64	4	8	3282
15	4	5	20902		65	8	2	3236
16	2	0	20575		66	8	3	3167
17	4	2	20300		67	3	9	3110
18	4	1	18290		68	8	1	2808
19	2	5	17475		69	1	10	2796
20	0	4	17174		70	8	4	2779
21	3	0	16573		71	5	8	2717
22	1	5	16030		72	2	10	2635
23	5	2	14580		73	7	8	2453
24	3	5	14433		74	8	5	2304
25	5	3	13522		75	4	9	2265
26	5	4	12894		76	0	10	2221
27	0	5	12891		77	3	10	2161
28	5	1	12595		78	8	0	1946
29	4	0	12447		79	1	11	1847
30	1	6	11584		80	9	2	1815
31	5	6	11376		81	9	3	1815
32	2	6	10890		82	6	8	1787
33	3	6	10689		83	8	6	1776
34	0	6	9884		84	2	11	1722
35	6	2	8976		85	9	1	1614
36	5	0	8831		86	9	4	1566
37	6	3	8708		87	0	11	1545
38	1	7	8440		88	4	10	1518
39	6	1	8147		89	8	7	1477
40	4	6	8063		90	5	9	1457
41	2	7	8010		91	3	11	1334
42	6	4	7829		92	9	5	1279
43	0	7	7041		93	6	9	1168
44	6	5	6813		94	9	0	1132
45	3	7	6379		95	1	12	1093
46	1	8	6002		96	8	9	1063
47	6	0	5662		97	9	6	1055
48	7	2	5659		98	2	12	1054
49	2	8	5648		99	4	11	1017
50	4	7	5593		100	0	12	981

Dodgers vs Braves - NLDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurences		Rank	Dodgers	Braves	Occurrences
1	1	2	47001		51	1	6	4770
2	2	3	42847		52	9	2	4625
3	2	1	41808		53	0	5	4581
4	3	2	37060		54	6	7	4210
5	3	1	33610		55	7	5	4195
6	2	0	30329		56	8	4	3746
7	3	4	30271		57	9	3	3674
8	0	1	30010		58	10	1	3475
9	1	0	29772		59	3	7	3432
10	3	0	27509		60	4	7	3406
11	4	2	26162		61	2	7	3392
12	4	1	25589		62	10	0	3373
13	4	3	24562		63	7	6	3241
14	4	0	22636		64	10	2	3088
15	1	3	22294		65	1	7	3042
16	5	1	18761		66	0	6	2944
17	0	2	18736		67	5	7	2899
18	2	4	18559		68	9	4	2674
19	5	2	18429		69	8	5	2667
20	4	5	17383		70	10	3	2411
21	5	0	16086		71	11	1	2365
22	5	3	15905		72	11	0	2234
23	1	4	14626		73	2	8	2221
24	5	4	13654		74	1	8	2121
25	6	1	13558		75	11	2	2019
26	6	2	13033		76	0	7	1977
27	6	0	12605		77	8	6	1928
28	0	3	11975		78	3	8	1921
29	3	5	11522		79	4	8	1829
30	2	5	11369		80	9	5	1823
31	6	3	10884		81	7	8	1819
32	7	1	10191		82	10	4	1721
33	7	0	9474		83	5	8	1668
34	7	2	9013		84	11	3	1667
35	5	6	8764		85	12	1	1479
36	1	5	8336		86	8	7	1443
37	6	4	8310		87	0	8	1428
38	0	4	7706		88	2	9	1422
39	8	1	7624		89	1	9	1405
40	7	3	7576		90	6	8	1329
41	8	0	7067		91	12	2	1323
42	6	5	7033		92	12	0	1280
43	8	2	6578		93	9	6	1260
44	3	6	6511		94	3	9	1229
45	2	6	6083		95	10	5	1184
46	4	6	5992		96	11	4	1149
47	7	4	5596		97	2	10	1085
48	9	1	5260		98	1	10	992
49	8	3	5037		99	4	9	967
50	9	0	5007		100	12	3	962

Rays vs Indians - AL WildCard Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences
1	1	2	51522		51	7	4	4913
2	2	3	49197		52	1	8	4537
3	2	1	40859		53	4	7	4490
4	3	2	37421		54	2	8	4489
5	3	4	34646		55	7	5	4367
6	0	1	33286		56	7	0	4194
7	3	1	29224		57	7	6	3688
8	1	3	28554		58	5	7	3665
9	1	0	27262		59	8	2	3628
10	4	3	26146		60	0	8	3622
11	0	2	24932		61	3	8	3618
12	4	2	24098		62	8	1	3548
13	2	0	23317		63	8	3	3207
14	2	4	22288		64	4	8	2944
15	1	4	21749		65	2	9	2924
16	0	3	21501		66	1	9	2862
17	4	5	20662		67	8	4	2806
18	4	1	19846		68	8	0	2432
19	3	0	17980		69	0	9	2369
20	0	4	16730		70	8	5	2320
21	5	2	15502		71	7	8	2310
22	5	3	15466		72	3	9	2275
23	5	4	15170		73	9	2	2150
24	1	5	15155		74	5	8	2142
25	2	5	14991		75	9	1	1953
26	3	5	13935		76	8	6	1876
27	5	1	13542		77	9	3	1857
28	4	0	13080		78	1	10	1817
29	0	5	11160		79	4	9	1691
30	5	6	10599		80	2	10	1689
31	2	6	10465		81	6	8	1580
32	1	6	9981		82	8	7	1574
33	6	2	9567		83	9	4	1538
34	6	3	9494		84	0	10	1438
35	5	0	9451		85	9	0	1417
36	6	1	8906		86	3	10	1403
37	3	6	8746		87	5	9	1276
38	6	4	8548		88	9	5	1254
39	0	6	8087		89	10	2	1199
40	6	5	7614		90	4	10	1091
41	4	6	7497		91	1	11	1057
42	1	7	6849		92	2	11	1053
43	2	7	6653		93	10	1	1042
44	6	0	6204		94	9	6	1038
45	7	2	6042		95	10	3	1016
46	3	7	5817		96	10	4	903
47	7	1	5667		97	8	9	900
48	7	3	5553		98	6	9	875
49	0	7	5511		99	3	11	860
50	6	7	5050		100	9	7	819

Rays vs Rangers - AL WildCard Play-In Game Simulation Results

The Braves Have Only Seen The Piece Of Crap Dodgers Team

The Braves and Dodgers faced each other seven times during the regular season with the Braves winning 5 out of 7 games.  All seven games were back when the Dodgers were a crappy team.  The Braves never had to face Kershaw and only had to face Greinke once.  A game the Dodgers won 5-0.  Below is a list of the seven games, showing the starting pitching matchup for each game and the Vegas win probabilities for each game.

@ATL May 17th, Loss 5-8, Ryu vs Maholm, Braves 58.1%
@ATL May 18th, Loss 1-3, Capuano vs Medlen, Braves 62.9%
@ATL May 19th, Loss 2-5, Magill vs Minor, Braves 64.3%
@LAD June 6th, WIN 5-0, Hudson vs Greinke, Braves 50.4%
@LAD June 7th, WIN 2-1, Maholm vs Ryu, Dodgers 52.5%
@LAD June 8th, LOSS 1-2, Medlen vs Fife, Braves 56.2%
@LAD June 9th, LOSS 1-8, Minor vs Magill, Braves 61.8%

Reds vs Pirates - NL WildCard Game Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences		Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences
1	1	2	62779		51	4	7	4008
2	0	1	57497		52	1	8	3851
3	2	3	48423		53	0	8	3791
4	2	1	42044		54	6	7	3646
5	0	2	39518		55	7	4	3619
6	1	0	36247		56	2	8	3512
7	1	3	33464		57	8	1	3424
8	3	2	31816		58	8	2	3336
9	3	4	29768		59	7	5	2944
10	0	3	29268		60	5	7	2871
11	2	0	27457		61	8	3	2842
12	3	1	26510		62	8	0	2773
13	1	4	23985		63	3	8	2708
14	2	4	23120		64	1	9	2551
15	0	4	19978		65	0	9	2516
16	4	3	19802		66	7	6	2456
17	4	2	19448		67	8	4	2195
18	3	0	17841		68	9	1	2144
19	4	1	17115		69	2	9	2139
20	4	5	16209		70	9	2	2025
21	2	5	15872		71	4	8	1994
22	1	5	15039		72	5	8	1704
23	0	5	13777		73	3	9	1684
24	4	0	13168		74	9	3	1664
25	3	5	13021		75	8	5	1652
26	5	2	12658		76	9	0	1639
27	5	1	11838		77	1	10	1540
28	5	3	11713		78	0	10	1487
29	5	4	10721		79	7	8	1484
30	1	6	9898		80	9	4	1341
31	0	6	9768		81	8	6	1331
32	5	0	9224		82	2	10	1263
33	2	6	9017		83	6	8	1261
34	3	6	8391		84	10	1	1254
35	6	2	8124		85	4	9	1194
36	5	6	8003		86	10	2	1140
37	6	1	7920		87	3	10	1064
38	6	3	7118		88	10	3	995
39	4	6	6503		89	10	0	986
40	1	7	6362		90	8	7	958
41	6	0	6345		91	9	5	941
42	6	4	6238		92	5	9	924
43	0	7	6204		93	1	11	912
44	2	7	5530		94	0	11	842
45	7	1	5358		95	10	4	790
46	6	5	5312		96	2	11	781
47	7	2	5054		97	4	10	752
48	3	7	4523		98	6	9	736
49	7	3	4389		99	11	1	722
50	7	0	4286		100	9	6	702

Playoff Simulations

For those five or six people who read my simulation charts. I will not be simulated any Dodgers games the final weekend of the season and instead focus on getting all of the rosters, depth charts and statistics for the 10 playoff bound teams so I can simulate every post-season game for all teams.

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	48604		51	6	0	5232
2	1	2	45598		52	7	1	5184
3	3	4	37888		53	1	8	5137
4	3	2	36676		54	2	8	4970
5	2	1	35611		55	7	5	4792
6	1	3	29105		56	3	8	4351
7	4	3	28068		57	7	6	4307
8	3	1	26208		58	5	7	4306
9	0	1	25157		59	0	8	3697
10	2	4	24378		60	8	2	3580
11	4	2	23848		61	2	9	3515
12	4	5	23614		62	4	8	3461
13	1	4	22556		63	8	3	3422
14	0	2	20594		64	1	9	3404
15	1	0	19987		65	7	0	3253
16	0	3	19513		66	8	4	3093
17	4	1	18756		67	8	1	2982
18	2	0	18238		68	3	9	2894
19	2	5	17482		69	8	5	2676
20	5	4	17323		70	7	8	2668
21	5	3	16343		71	5	8	2585
22	3	5	15970		72	0	9	2534
23	1	5	15917		73	1	10	2396
24	5	2	15610		74	2	10	2384
25	0	4	15202		75	4	9	2346
26	3	0	15192		76	8	6	2201
27	5	1	12995		77	3	10	2076
28	5	6	12596		78	9	2	2045
29	2	6	11862		79	9	3	2008
30	4	0	11590		80	8	0	1979
31	3	6	10694		81	6	8	1942
32	1	6	10533		82	8	7	1865
33	0	5	10404		83	9	4	1785
34	6	3	10029		84	0	10	1731
35	6	2	9908		85	9	1	1665
36	6	4	9485		86	5	9	1606
37	6	5	9077		87	2	11	1584
38	4	6	8863		88	1	11	1538
39	6	1	8417		89	9	5	1426
40	5	0	8162		90	4	10	1407
41	0	6	7538		91	3	11	1377
42	2	7	7512		92	9	6	1203
43	1	7	7383		93	0	11	1145
44	3	7	6956		94	8	9	1126
45	7	3	6120		95	6	9	1120
46	6	7	6119		96	9	0	1078
47	7	2	6119		97	10	2	1070
48	4	7	5561		98	2	12	1046
49	7	4	5401		99	10	3	1017
50	0	7	5370		100	5	10	1009