Dodger Sims: Joe Kelly

Showing posts with label Joe Kelly. Show all posts

Friday, October 25, 2013

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Red Sox	Cardinals	Occurrences	Rank	Red Sox	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	2	3	42948	51	7	5	5988
2	1	2	39386	52	4	7	5746
3	3	4	34579	53	8	2	5340
4	3	2	34437	54	8	3	5065
5	2	1	31669	55	7	0	4965
6	4	3	27558	56	7	6	4930
7	3	1	25972	57	5	7	4921
8	1	3	25255	58	8	1	4567
9	4	2	24954	59	8	4	4314
10	4	5	23285	60	2	8	4309
11	2	4	23199	61	0	7	4220
12	0	1	21848	62	3	8	3973
13	4	1	20504	63	1	8	3933
14	1	4	19894	64	8	5	3770
15	1	0	18953	65	9	2	3396
16	2	0	18407	66	4	8	3313
17	5	2	18295	67	9	3	3118
18	5	3	18030	68	8	0	3091
19	0	2	17869	69	7	8	3048
20	5	4	17791	70	8	6	2962
21	2	5	16750	71	9	1	2951
22	3	5	16213	72	5	8	2838
23	3	0	16131	73	9	4	2740
24	0	3	15911	74	0	8	2668
25	5	1	14740	75	2	9	2637
26	1	5	14168	76	3	9	2536
27	5	6	13207	77	1	9	2466
28	4	0	12717	78	8	7	2355
29	0	4	12516	79	6	8	2297
30	6	3	12475	80	9	5	2069
31	6	2	12189	81	9	0	2041
32	6	4	11058	82	4	9	2002
33	2	6	10874	83	10	2	1900
34	3	6	10684	84	10	3	1839
35	6	1	10537	85	10	1	1815
36	6	5	10108	86	9	6	1761
37	5	0	9662	87	2	10	1657
38	4	6	9613	88	10	4	1615
39	1	6	9589	89	0	9	1598
40	0	5	9303	90	5	9	1591
41	7	2	8209	91	3	10	1532
42	7	3	7940	92	1	10	1475
43	7	4	7458	93	6	9	1314
44	7	1	7135	94	10	5	1314
45	6	0	7028	95	10	0	1238
46	6	7	6862	96	9	7	1230
47	2	7	6788	97	8	9	1202
48	3	7	6475	98	4	10	1178
49	1	7	6343	99	11	2	1149
50	0	6	6312	100	11	3	1092

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Cardinals	Dodgers	Occurrences	Rank	Cardinals	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	47717	51	6	0	5803
2	1	2	46491	52	7	4	5517
3	3	4	36734	53	2	8	5216
4	2	1	31634	54	1	8	5031
5	3	2	31556	55	7	5	4969
6	0	1	28974	56	5	7	4517
7	1	3	28481	57	3	8	4446
8	2	4	24433	58	7	6	4316
9	3	1	24073	59	8	2	4254
10	4	3	24073	60	7	0	4063
11	4	5	23300	61	8	3	3917
12	0	2	23094	62	8	1	3825
13	1	4	22658	63	0	8	3790
14	4	2	21292	64	4	8	3514
15	0	3	20818	65	8	4	3485
16	1	0	19501	66	2	9	3222
17	2	0	17878	67	1	9	3154
18	2	5	17871	68	7	8	2988
19	4	1	17347	69	8	5	2869
20	1	5	16348	70	9	2	2760
21	0	4	16344	71	3	9	2751
22	3	5	16179	72	5	8	2712
23	5	4	15200	73	8	0	2675
24	5	3	15119	74	9	3	2551
25	3	0	14883	75	9	1	2425
26	5	2	14625	76	0	9	2381
27	5	6	12964	77	8	6	2377
28	5	1	12424	78	4	9	2100
29	0	5	12041	79	9	4	2087
30	2	6	11533	80	6	8	2072
31	4	0	11337	81	2	10	1981
32	1	6	11299	82	8	7	1977
33	3	6	10786	83	1	10	1916
34	6	2	9871	84	9	5	1814
35	6	3	9760	85	9	0	1720
36	4	6	9252	86	3	10	1691
37	6	4	9013	87	10	2	1659
38	6	1	8731	88	10	3	1611
39	0	6	8642	89	5	9	1537
40	6	5	8585	90	10	1	1487
41	5	0	8043	91	9	6	1419
42	2	7	7781	92	0	10	1393
43	1	7	7553	93	6	9	1278
44	3	7	6874	94	10	4	1272
45	7	3	6445	95	4	10	1264
46	7	2	6319	96	8	9	1244
47	6	7	6308	97	2	11	1167
48	4	7	5914	98	1	11	1150
49	7	1	5876	99	9	7	1067
50	0	7	5811	100	3	11	1039

Note: Vegas has the Dodgers as 55.6% favorites in Game #1 (ML -130, +120)

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Cardinals	Occurrences	Rank	Dodgers	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	2	3	4402	51	1	7	569
2	1	2	4059	52	3	7	566
3	3	4	3531	53	8	1	555
4	3	2	3376	54	8	3	551
5	2	1	3192	55	7	6	536
6	4	3	2749	56	4	7	510
7	3	1	2695	57	0	6	476
8	4	2	2485	58	5	7	459
9	4	5	2384	59	8	4	432
10	1	3	2352	60	8	0	395
11	0	1	2263	61	2	8	386
12	2	4	2109	62	9	2	379
13	4	1	2107	63	8	5	378
14	1	0	1941	64	1	8	363
15	5	2	1837	65	0	7	358
16	3	0	1821	66	9	1	351
17	2	0	1819	67	3	8	342
18	5	3	1816	68	7	8	324
19	5	4	1801	69	4	8	323
20	1	4	1745	70	5	8	310
21	5	1	1680	71	9	3	293
22	0	2	1629	72	8	6	292
23	0	3	1527	73	2	9	291
24	4	0	1516	74	9	5	276
25	3	5	1457	75	9	4	268
26	2	5	1445	76	8	7	246
27	5	6	1322	77	9	0	231
28	6	2	1234	78	1	9	229
29	1	5	1229	79	6	8	221
30	6	3	1197	80	0	8	220
31	6	1	1188	81	10	2	219
32	5	0	1125	82	4	9	215
33	6	4	1087	83	3	9	211
34	0	4	1076	84	10	1	203
35	6	5	1040	85	10	3	187
36	2	6	932	86	2	10	184
37	3	6	924	87	10	4	171
38	7	3	869	88	3	10	167
39	7	2	865	89	5	9	162
40	6	0	830	90	11	2	153
41	4	6	803	91	0	9	152
42	7	1	795	92	1	10	150
43	1	6	788	93	9	6	149
44	0	5	764	94	8	9	141
45	6	7	732	95	9	7	136
46	7	4	720	96	10	0	136
47	2	7	635	97	9	8	129
48	7	5	586	98	10	5	129
49	8	2	583	99	2	11	120
50	7	0	573	100	4	10	116

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Cardinals	Pirates	Occurrences	Rank	Cardinals	Pirates	Occurrences
1	2	3	4469	51	2	8	547
2	1	2	4389	52	7	4	532
3	3	4	3334	53	7	5	494
4	0	1	3146	54	5	7	492
5	1	3	2992	55	3	8	489
6	2	1	2872	56	7	1	476
7	3	2	2834	57	0	8	470
8	2	4	2659	58	6	0	439
9	1	4	2624	59	7	6	427
10	0	2	2564	60	8	3	404
11	0	3	2480	61	8	2	385
12	4	5	2246	62	8	1	361
13	4	3	2160	63	2	9	359
14	2	5	2131	64	1	9	358
15	0	4	2069	65	4	8	341
16	3	1	2046	66	8	4	331
17	1	0	2007	67	5	8	320
18	1	5	1888	68	3	9	317
19	4	2	1885	69	7	0	305
20	3	5	1750	70	0	9	298
21	2	0	1711	71	8	5	295
22	0	5	1653	72	7	8	287
23	5	4	1398	73	9	2	266
24	4	1	1387	74	4	9	238
25	5	3	1375	75	9	3	238
26	1	6	1366	76	6	8	237
27	2	6	1361	77	8	0	230
28	5	2	1289	78	8	6	221
29	5	6	1251	79	8	7	215
30	3	6	1234	80	9	4	210
31	0	6	1142	81	0	10	198
32	3	0	1072	82	1	10	195
33	5	1	1014	83	9	1	191
34	1	7	969	84	5	9	189
35	4	6	967	85	2	10	177
36	6	3	916	86	3	10	168
37	6	4	890	87	10	2	168
38	2	7	877	88	9	5	167
39	4	0	853	89	10	3	153
40	6	5	835	90	6	9	151
41	6	2	815	91	4	10	146
42	0	7	808	92	9	6	139
43	3	7	757	93	9	0	133
44	6	1	724	94	10	1	130
45	4	7	670	95	10	4	125
46	6	7	667	96	2	11	122
47	7	3	638	97	0	11	116
48	5	0	617	98	8	9	111
49	1	8	615	99	1	11	104
50	7	2	606	100	11	2	102

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CLE	Tommy Hunter vs Justin Masterson	CLE	TBD	59.78%	TBD
BOS	TEX	Felix Doubront vs Scott Feldman	TEX	TBD	57.06%	TBD
KC	LAA	Bruce Chen vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	TBD	62.87%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Francisco Liriano vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	51.37%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Jeff Samardzija vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	57.38%	TBD
MIL	PHI	Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay	PHI	TBD	65.06%	TBD
ATL	FLA	Mike Minor vs Josh Johnson	FLA	TBD	61.06%	TBD
WAS	NYN	Jordan Zimmerman vs Chris Young	WAS	TBD	52.26%	TBD
CIN	HOU	Mat Latos vs Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	TBD	57.89%	TBD
LAN	STL	Chad Billingsley vs Joe Kelly	STL	TBD	53.44%	TBD
COL	ARI	Jonathan Sanchez vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	TBD	61.91%	TBD
NYA	SEA	Hiroki Kuroda vs Kevin Millwood	NYA	TBD	54.34%	TBD
SD	SF	Clayton Richard vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	55.95%	TBD

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Current ML ROI: 2.45%
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