Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Exportable 2013 MLB Schedule
Something that is difficult to find on the internet is an excel download file of the 2013 MLB Schedule. I have taken the time to type up the complete 2013 MLB Schedule in to CSV format and uploaded it to google docs. The file is free to download and can be found at the following link.
Here is the format that the file is in
Game ID,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home
1,2013,3,31,TEX,HOU
2,2013,4,1,FLA,WAS
3,2013,4,1,SD,NYN
4,2013,4,1,CHN,PIT
5,2013,4,1,COL,MIL
6,2013,4,1,SF,LAN
7,2013,4,1,PHI,ATL
8,2013,4,1,STL,ARI
9,2013,4,1,DET,MIN
10,2013,4,1,BOS,NYA
.
.
.
2428,2013,9,29,OAK,SEA
2429,2013,9,29,COL,LAN
2430,2013,9,29,WAS,ARI
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
2013 MLB Win Totals - Part I
Instead of just posting the current Vegas MLB odds to win the World Series, I am going to take things a step further and interpolate those W.S. odds out to 2013 win totals. There is no great scientific method that I am going to be using except for keeping consistent with the Vegas odds in the order I assign team wins. I think I have a pretty good idea at what Vegas typically sets their highest and lowest over/under win totals at, so everything in between I can do an "eye ball" interpolation on to set the win total over/under for each team. Later in my Part II of this series, I will use a more scientific method for matching up the Vegas odds to win totals. But for now... here we go!
| Team | Odds To Win W.S. | % Chance to Win | 2013 Wins Over/Under |
| Angels | 8-1 | 8.39 | 93 |
| Dodgers | 8-1 | 8.39 | 93 |
| Blue Jays | 8-1 | 8.39 | 93 |
| Nationals | 8-1 | 8.39 | 93 |
| Tigers | 9-1 | 7.55 | 92 |
| Braves | 12-1 | 5.81 | 90 |
| Yankees | 12.5-1 | 5.59 | 89 |
| Reds | 13-1 | 5.40 | 88 |
| Rangers | 13.5-1 | 5.21 | 88 |
| Phillies | 17-1 | 4.20 | 86 |
| Giants | 17-1 | 4.20 | 86 |
| Red Sox | 20-1 | 3.60 | 85 |
| Cardinals | 20-1 | 3.60 | 85 |
| Rays | 22-1 | 3.28 | 84 |
| Athletics | 30-1 | 2.44 | 82 |
| Orioles | 40-1 | 1.84 | 81 |
| Diamondbacks | 45-1 | 1.64 | 80 |
| White Sox | 50-1 | 1.48 | 79 |
| Royals | 50-1 | 1.48 | 79 |
| Brewers | 50-1 | 1.48 | 79 |
| Pirates | 72-1 | 1.03 | 77 |
| Mets | 75-1 | 0.99 | 75 |
| Padres | 75-1 | 0.99 | 75 |
| Indians | 77.5-1 | 0.96 | 75 |
| Cubs | 100-1 | 0.75 | 71 |
| Rockies | 100-1 | 0.75 | 71 |
| Mariners | 110-1 | 0.68 | 70 |
| Twins | 125-1 | 0.60 | 67 |
| Marlins | 150-1 | 0.50 | 63 |
| Astros | 200-1 | 0.38 | 61 |
Notes:
Percent chance of winning W.S. has the Vegas juice removed.
American League has a 51.5% (Vegas) chance of winning the W.S.
National League has a 48.5% (Vegas) chance of winning the W.S.
Odds were taken from 5Dimes on 2/12/13.
In calculating the pecent chance to win the W.S., I removed the Vegas "juice".
The 2013 Over/Unders from the Atlantis came out the day after this post.
For the most part, I did a straight interpolation from (Vegas) World Series odds to an over/under on team wins. There a couple of things that could be wrong with this. The first comes from the possibility that the Vegas World Series odds have some bias to them. Perhaps Vegas moved the odds up or down based on how popular a team is. This of course has nothing to do with my methodology. On the otherhand, something that does have to do with my methodology is that I am not controlling for the teams playing in divisions. Divisions that may be stronger or weaker than others. For example, the Royals might win a World Series out of every 50 times playing out of the AL Central, but what if they played out of the AL East? Chances are that 50 number would climb. A next step to this exercise would be to control for how hard or easy it is to win a division. I'm not sure on the best way to do this yet, so if you have any ideas feel free to leave a comment or send me a tweet (@DodgerSims).
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
2013 World Series Odds
As of 1/30/2013...
| Team | 12/15/12 Odds | 12/29/12 Odds | 1/30/13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 7-1 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Tigers | 7-1 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Dodgers | 7-1 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Nationals | 8-1 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| Blue Jays | 10-1 | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| Yankees | 10-1 | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| Reds | 10-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| Rangers | 10-1 | 14-1 | 18-1 |
| Cardinals | 14-1 | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Giants | 14-1 | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Phillies | 16-1 | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Braves | 16-1 | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Rays | 20-1 | 16-1 | 16-1 |
| Brewers | 30-1 | 30-1 | 60-1 |
| Red Sox | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Athletics | 40-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Royals | 30-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| White Sox | 40-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Diamdonbacks | 40-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Orioles | 50-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Pirates | 50-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Cubs | 60-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Mariners | 100-1 | 80-1 | 80-1 |
| Indians | 100-1 | 80-1 | 80-1 |
| Mets | 60-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Padres | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Marlins | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Twins | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Astros | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Rockies | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
Source: Sportsbook.com
Friday, January 04, 2013
The Better Offense - Rockies or Dodgers
So there is this Buster Olney guy who gets paid money to write about baseball. Recently, he put up an article where he ranked the best offenses in baseball. More than a few Dodgers fans were up in arms when Buster ranked the Rockies offense a few spots ahead of the Dodgers offense. I was asked by a couple followers on twitter to run the numbers through my simulator where I can take into effect things like the enormously friendly park that the Rockies hit in.
This is a pretty easy exercise for me to run in my simulator. What I did is get park neutral offensive stats for both the Rockies and Dodgers lineups. I took the 8 starting hitters for each teams, as listed at MLBdepthCharts website and gave each team what the simulator thought was its most efficient lineup. I then gave each team the exact same starting pitcher, bullpen, bench and made all park factors league average. I then ran five million individual game simulations, pitting the two teams together. I let each team be the away/home team and repeated the above process for both a right handed and left handed starting pitcher.
So the only difference is the two hitting lineups, everything else is held constant. The metric to determine the better offense can now be measured in how many of the five million games each team won. Here are the results...
Saturday, December 29, 2012
2013 World Series Odds
As of 12/29/2012...
| Team | 12/15/12 Odds | 12/29/12 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Angels | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Tigers | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Dodgers | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Nationals | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| Blue Jays | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| Yankees | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Reds | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Rangers | 10-1 | 14-1 |
| Cardinals | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Giants | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Phillies | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Braves | 16-1 | 16-1 |
| Rays | 20-1 | 16-1 |
| Brewers | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Red Sox | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Athletics | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Royals | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| White Sox | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Diamdonbacks | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| Orioles | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Pirates | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Cubs | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Mariners | 100-1 | 80-1 |
| Indians | 100-1 | 80-1 |
| Mets | 60-1 | 100-1 |
| Padres | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Marlins | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Twins | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Astros | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Rockies | 100-1 | 100-1 |
Source: Sportsbook.com
Sunday, December 16, 2012
2013 World Series Odds
as of 12/15/12.... 2013 World Series Odds
| Team | 12/15/12 Odds |
|---|---|
| Angels | 7-1 |
| Tigers | 7-1 |
| Dodgers | 7-1 |
| Nationals | 8-1 |
| Yankees | 10-1 |
| Rangers | 10-1 |
| Reds | 10-1 |
| Blue Jays | 10-1 |
| Cardinals | 14-1 |
| Giants | 14-1 |
| Phillies | 16-1 |
| Braves | 16-1 |
| Rays | 20-1 |
| Brewers | 30-1 |
| Royals | 30-1 |
| Red Sox | 30-1 |
| White Sox | 40-1 |
| Diamdonbacks | 40-1 |
| Athletics | 40-1 |
| Orioles | 50-1 |
| Pirates | 50-1 |
| Mets | 60-1 |
| Cubs | 60-1 |
| Padres | 100-1 |
| Marlins | 100-1 |
| Mariners | 100-1 |
| Indians | 100-1 |
| Twins | 100-1 |
| Astros | 100-1 |
| Rockies | 100-1 |
Source: Sportsbook.com
R.A. Dickey - Who Is He Like?
Today, I look at the 20 most similar pitchers for R.A. Dickey. And by similar, I mean the three skill based stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB over the past two years with a heavier weight given to the 2012 season (over the 2011). Now Dickey had what some would call a breakout year in 2012, so his 2011 stats which are weighted lower, bring down his numbers slightly. But in most likeliehood, Dickey is not going to repeat his 2012 numbers, so I think all is well here. So what kind of skillset (age and pitch repetoire withstanding) compares to Dickey's?
Monday, December 03, 2012
Anibal Sanchez, Is He Any Good?
Yes. Yes he is. He seems to be a good value play as a free agent this off-season. He doesn't have the glitz and glamour but he has the arm and a solid group of comparable pitchers for his three most important skill based peripherals. While his K/9 is down from his 2011 campaign, he did walk less batters and raise his GB/FB ratio. Anibal Sanchez is going to make some team a nice little starting pitcher. Who will be the lucky suitor.
Top 20 Most Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Anibal Sanchez | 8.29 | 2.49 | 1.37 |
| 1 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | 8.03 | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 6 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 7 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
| 8 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 9 | CC Sabathia | 8.81 | 2.12 | 1.56 |
| 10 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 11 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.32 | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| 12 | R.A. Dickey | 7.82 | 2.18 | 1.43 |
| 13 | Matt Garza | 8.68 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
| 14 | Chris Carpenter | 7.15 | 2.03 | 1.49 |
| 15 | Felix Hernandez | 8.62 | 2.33 | 1.68 |
| 16 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 17 | David Price | 8.75 | 2.52 | 1.61 |
| 18 | Yovani Gallardo | 9.00 | 3.19 | 1.41 |
| 19 | Edwin Jackson | 7.50 | 2.78 | 1.35 |
| 20 | Zack Greinke | 9.17 | 2.32 | 1.64 |
Note: Peripherals are 2011 and 2012 stats, with the 2012 stats carrying a weight of 5 and the 2011 stats carrying a weight of 3.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Tommy Hanson, Why You Hating On Me
The big news for the Angels was the trade for Tommy Hanson. Hanson has had his ups and downs over the past year, regressing a little bit from the hot start his career got off to. Nonetheless, he has still posted some pretty good peripherals over the past two seasons. Looking at his numbers over the past two years, while giving more weight to the most recent season, Hanson has still put up some pretty decent numbers. Hanson's tendancy is to be more of a fly ball pitcher, which makes his higher than normal walk rate a little troubling... hopefully Angels Stadium can help suppress that. Overall, I think the trade was a good one for the Angels. They need starting pitching and Hanson is better than he is given credit for. His closest comparable pitchers "skill-wise" are strike-out machines who are a little on the wild side.
Top 20 Most Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Tommy Hanson | 8.79 | 3.52 | 1.00 |
| 1 | Matt Moore | 9.07 | 4.08 | 0.87 |
| 2 | Erik Bedard | 8.57 | 3.77 | 1.23 |
| 3 | Brandon Beachy | 9.20 | 3.07 | 0.87 |
| 4 | Michael Pineda | 9.11 | 2.89 | 0.81 |
| 5 | Bud Norris | 8.71 | 3.48 | 1.00 |
| 6 | James McDonald | 7.77 | 3.78 | 0.96 |
| 7 | Felipe Paulino | 8.95 | 3.61 | 1.23 |
| 8 | Brandon Morrow | 8.93 | 3.20 | 0.95 |
| 9 | Ryan Dempster | 8.18 | 3.10 | 1.23 |
| 10 | Lance Lynn | 9.19 | 3.28 | 1.39 |
| 11 | J.A. Happ | 8.48 | 3.93 | 0.97 |
| 12 | Felix Doubront | 9.34 | 3.97 | 1.32 |
| 13 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 14 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 15 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 16 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 17 | Tim Lincecum | 9.17 | 4.03 | 1.49 |
| 18 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 19 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 20 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Zack Greinke, All I Want For Christmas
The Dodgers are a leading candidate to land free agent Zack Greinke, so let me take a look at his comparables. Remember I am looking at three of the most skill related peripherals, and taking data from both the 2011 and 2012 season with a heavier weight on the 2012 numbers. The Dodgers would love to have a second starting pitcher who can come close to matching the skillset and results of Clayton Kershaw. If you are going to spend all this money, you mind as well make sure you've loaded your team to the brink of being a heavy favorite. A healthy Zach Greinke would do just that. His peripherals on the K/9 and BB/9 are almost an exact match of those of Kershaw. Greinke has a better GB/FB ratio than Kershaw which in general is a good thing as less fly balls equals less homeruns. The only draw back for a ground ball pitcher on the Dodgers might be Hanley Ramirez or Dee Gordon's glove out at SS. But you can't hang that on the pitcher. Ho! Ho! Ho!
Top 50 Most Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Zack Greinke | 9.17 | 2.32 | 1.64 |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 2 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 3 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
| 4 | CC Sabathia | 8.81 | 2.12 | 1.56 |
| 5 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.32 | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| 6 | Matt Garza | 8.68 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
| 7 | Felix Hernandez | 8.62 | 2.33 | 1.68 |
| 8 | David Price | 8.75 | 2.52 | 1.61 |
| 9 | Anibal Sanchez | 8.29 | 2.49 | 1.37 |
| 10 | Chris Sale | 9.00 | 2.36 | 1.39 |
| 11 | Jeff Samardzija | 9.30 | 2.89 | 1.35 |
| 12 | Adam Wainwright | 8.36 | 2.36 | 1.93 |
| 13 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 14 | Stephen Strasburg | 10.97 | 2.55 | 1.31 |
| 15 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 16 | Johnny Cueto | 6.73 | 2.24 | 1.70 |
| 17 | Roy Halladay | 8.03 | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| 18 | Cliff Lee | 8.99 | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| 19 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 20 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 21 | Doug Fister | 6.96 | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| 22 | Ian Kennedy | 8.06 | 2.32 | 0.92 |
| 23 | Matt Cain | 7.68 | 2.27 | 0.96 |
| 24 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 25 | C.J. Wilson | 7.95 | 3.63 | 1.63 |
| 26 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 27 | Hiroki Kuroda | 6.97 | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| 28 | Gio Gonzalez | 9.14 | 3.67 | 1.52 |
| 29 | Jordan Zimmermann | 7.01 | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| 30 | R.A. Dickey | 7.82 | 2.18 | 1.43 |
| 31 | Chris Carpenter | 7.15 | 2.03 | 1.49 |
| 32 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 33 | Jon Lester | 7.74 | 3.18 | 1.63 |
| 34 | Daniel Hudson | 6.99 | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| 35 | Wandy Rodriguez | 6.67 | 2.73 | 1.44 |
| 36 | Yovani Gallardo | 9.00 | 3.19 | 1.41 |
| 37 | Jaime Garcia | 7.25 | 2.27 | 1.99 |
| 38 | Ivan Nova | 7.10 | 3.02 | 1.55 |
| 39 | Brandon Beachy | 9.20 | 3.07 | 0.87 |
| 40 | Roy Oswalt | 6.58 | 2.07 | 1.31 |
| 41 | Michael Pineda | 9.11 | 2.89 | 0.81 |
| 42 | Edwin Jackson | 7.50 | 2.78 | 1.35 |
| 43 | Derek Holland | 7.52 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 44 | Jeff Niemann | 7.33 | 2.59 | 1.44 |
| 45 | Wade Miley | 6.75 | 1.88 | 1.26 |
| 46 | Chad Billingsley | 7.53 | 3.28 | 1.36 |
| 47 | Felipe Paulino | 8.95 | 3.61 | 1.23 |
| 48 | Jon Niese | 7.53 | 2.39 | 1.66 |
| 49 | Dillon Gee | 7.23 | 3.10 | 1.57 |
| 50 | Gavin Floyd | 7.45 | 2.86 | 1.29 |
Links to other player comparables...
Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang
Ted Lilly
Chad Billingsley
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Chad Billingsley, Handle With Care
Of the six Dodgers starting pitchers I have looked at so far, Billingsley probably has the fourth best set of comparables. Falling behind Kershaw, Beckett and Capuano and ahead of Harang and probably Lilly. Billingsley's strikeout rate is right up there with Beckett and Capuano but he walks quite a few more hitters. Billingsley does however induce the most groundballs of any Dodgers starting pitcher which is a good thing.
Top 50 Most Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Chad Billingsley | 7.53 | 3.28 | 1.36 |
| 1 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 2 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 3 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 4 | C.J. Wilson | 7.95 | 3.63 | 1.63 |
| 5 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 6 | Matt Garza | 8.68 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
| 7 | Ervin Santana | 6.85 | 2.98 | 1.15 |
| 8 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 9 | Jon Lester | 7.74 | 3.18 | 1.63 |
| 10 | Clay Buchholz | 6.23 | 3.12 | 1.42 |
| 11 | Wandy Rodriguez | 6.67 | 2.73 | 1.44 |
| 12 | Erik Bedard | 8.57 | 3.77 | 1.23 |
| 13 | Ivan Nova | 7.10 | 3.02 | 1.55 |
| 14 | Philip Humber | 6.85 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| 15 | Edwin Jackson | 7.50 | 2.78 | 1.35 |
| 16 | Derek Holland | 7.52 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 17 | Jeff Niemann | 7.33 | 2.59 | 1.44 |
| 18 | Dillon Gee | 7.23 | 3.10 | 1.57 |
| 19 | John Danks | 6.43 | 2.93 | 1.17 |
| 20 | Gavin Floyd | 7.45 | 2.86 | 1.29 |
| 21 | Chris Narveson | 6.88 | 3.67 | 1.17 |
| 22 | Luke Hochevar | 6.54 | 2.91 | 1.35 |
| 23 | Ryan Dempster | 8.18 | 3.10 | 1.23 |
| 24 | Jason Hammel | 6.92 | 3.41 | 1.58 |
| 25 | Jake Arrieta | 7.55 | 3.46 | 1.26 |
| 26 | Matt Moore | 9.07 | 4.08 | 0.87 |
| 27 | Luis Mendoza | 5.78 | 2.97 | 1.83 |
| 28 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 29 | Johnny Cueto | 6.73 | 2.24 | 1.70 |
| 30 | Roy Halladay | 8.03 | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| 31 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 32 | Jered Weaver | 7.13 | 2.15 | 0.76 |
| 33 | Tim Lincecum | 9.17 | 4.03 | 1.49 |
| 34 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 35 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
| 36 | Doug Fister | 6.96 | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| 37 | Ian Kennedy | 8.06 | 2.32 | 0.92 |
| 38 | Matt Cain | 7.68 | 2.27 | 0.96 |
| 39 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 40 | Ricky Romero | 6.57 | 4.36 | 1.91 |
| 41 | Jeremy Hellickson | 6.02 | 3.17 | 0.97 |
| 42 | CC Sabathia | 8.81 | 2.12 | 1.56 |
| 43 | Hiroki Kuroda | 6.97 | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| 44 | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.97 | 3.72 | 1.40 |
| 45 | Gio Gonzalez | 9.14 | 3.67 | 1.52 |
| 46 | Kyle Kendrick | 6.17 | 2.27 | 1.32 |
| 47 | Jordan Zimmermann | 7.01 | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| 48 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.32 | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| 49 | Ross Detwiler | 5.57 | 2.68 | 1.59 |
| 50 | Justin Masterson | 6.80 | 3.39 | 2.16 |
Links to other player comparables...
Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang
Ted Lilly
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Ted Lilly, Should He Stay Or Should He Go
There he is, Jered Weaver. Showing up a third time as the number one comparable for a Dodger starting pitcher. He was number one on the chart for both Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano. I think with Lilly though this may be slightly misleading because the walk rates are quite a bit different, with Lilly walking 0.58 more batters per 9 innings than Weaver. Where the difference is made up at is the heavy fly ball rates both pitchers have.
Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Ted Lilly | 6.92 | 2.73 | 0.82 |
| 1 | Jered Weaver | 7.13 | 2.15 | 0.76 |
| 2 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 3 | Ian Kennedy | 8.06 | 2.32 | 0.92 |
| 4 | Matt Cain | 7.68 | 2.27 | 0.96 |
| 5 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 6 | Jeremy Hellickson | 6.02 | 3.17 | 0.97 |
| 7 | Ervin Santana | 6.85 | 2.98 | 1.15 |
| 8 | Daniel Hudson | 6.99 | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| 9 | Shaun Marcum | 7.51 | 2.77 | 0.86 |
| 10 | Alexi Ogando | 6.66 | 2.25 | 0.95 |
| 11 | Freddy Garcia | 6.75 | 2.95 | 1.02 |
| 12 | Randy Wolf | 5.91 | 2.89 | 1.09 |
| 13 | Philip Humber | 6.85 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| 14 | Javier Vazquez | 7.59 | 2.34 | 0.74 |
| 15 | Bruce Chen | 6.28 | 2.44 | 0.74 |
| 16 | Derek Holland | 7.52 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 17 | Mike Minor | 7.53 | 2.92 | 0.86 |
| 18 | Jason Vargas | 5.85 | 2.41 | 0.93 |
| 19 | John Danks | 6.43 | 2.93 | 1.17 |
| 20 | Chris Capuano | 7.65 | 2.48 | 1.04 |
| 21 | Brett Cecil | 6.84 | 3.21 | 0.85 |
| 22 | Travis Wood | 6.66 | 3.19 | 0.77 |
| 23 | Carlos Villanueva | 7.37 | 2.29 | 0.75 |
| 24 | Phil Hughes | 7.39 | 2.30 | 0.69 |
| 25 | John Lackey | 6.07 | 3.15 | 1.08 |
| 26 | Wei-Yin Chen | 7.21 | 2.67 | 0.88 |
| 27 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 28 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 29 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 30 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 31 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 32 | Jair Jurrjens | 4.75 | 2.89 | 1.07 |
| 33 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 34 | Hiroki Kuroda | 6.97 | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| 35 | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.97 | 3.72 | 1.40 |
| 36 | Kyle Kendrick | 6.17 | 2.27 | 1.32 |
| 37 | Jordan Zimmermann | 7.01 | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| 38 | Dan Haren | 7.25 | 1.63 | 1.05 |
| 39 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.32 | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| 40 | Ross Detwiler | 5.57 | 2.68 | 1.59 |
| 41 | R.A. Dickey | 7.82 | 2.18 | 1.43 |
| 42 | Matt Garza | 8.68 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
| 43 | Brandon McCarthy | 6.20 | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| 44 | Kyle Lohse | 5.82 | 1.76 | 1.13 |
| 45 | Matt Harrison | 5.81 | 2.60 | 1.54 |
| 46 | Jeff Karstens | 5.73 | 1.66 | 1.18 |
| 47 | Chris Carpenter | 7.15 | 2.03 | 1.49 |
| 48 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 49 | Jon Lester | 7.74 | 3.18 | 1.63 |
| 50 | Clay Buchholz | 6.23 | 3.12 | 1.42 |
Links to other player comparables...
Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang
Monday, November 26, 2012
Aaron Harang, The Weakest Link
Next up on our journey through the Dodgers starting pitcher comparables is Aaron Harang. One whiff of his comparables and you get a sense as to why Harang's name is being bandied around as a player who could be traded to make room for a top free agent signing to join the rotation. Harang moreso than Capuano would be the pitcher you would want to trade from the Capang duet. Harang strikes out an average amount of hitters but walks a ton of them. His low GB/FB ratio does not match well with someone who walks so many hitters. No ground balls to erase them on double plays and extra base runners to trot home on the fly balls that land in the bleachers.
Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Aaron Harang | 6.57 | 3.83 | 0.96 |
| 1 | Jeremy Hellickson | 6.02 | 3.17 | 0.97 |
| 2 | James McDonald | 7.77 | 3.78 | 0.96 |
| 3 | Chris Narveson | 6.88 | 3.67 | 1.17 |
| 4 | Brett Cecil | 6.84 | 3.21 | 0.85 |
| 5 | Travis Wood | 6.66 | 3.19 | 0.77 |
| 6 | Barry Zito | 5.51 | 3.45 | 1.02 |
| 7 | John Lackey | 6.07 | 3.15 | 1.08 |
| 8 | Matt Moore | 9.07 | 4.08 | 0.87 |
| 9 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 10 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 11 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 12 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 13 | C.J. Wilson | 7.95 | 3.63 | 1.63 |
| 14 | Jair Jurrjens | 4.75 | 2.89 | 1.07 |
| 15 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 16 | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.97 | 3.72 | 1.40 |
| 17 | Ervin Santana | 6.85 | 2.98 | 1.15 |
| 18 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 19 | Jon Lester | 7.74 | 3.18 | 1.63 |
| 20 | Clay Buchholz | 6.23 | 3.12 | 1.42 |
| 21 | Wandy Rodriguez | 6.67 | 2.73 | 1.44 |
| 22 | Shaun Marcum | 7.51 | 2.77 | 0.86 |
| 23 | Alexi Ogando | 6.66 | 2.25 | 0.95 |
| 24 | Freddy Garcia | 6.75 | 2.95 | 1.02 |
| 25 | Tommy Hanson | 8.79 | 3.52 | 1.00 |
| 26 | Jhoulys Chacin | 6.55 | 4.09 | 1.54 |
| 27 | Erik Bedard | 8.57 | 3.77 | 1.23 |
| 28 | Ivan Nova | 7.10 | 3.02 | 1.55 |
| 29 | Randy Wolf | 5.91 | 2.89 | 1.09 |
| 30 | Philip Humber | 6.85 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| 31 | Bud Norris | 8.71 | 3.48 | 1.00 |
| 32 | Bruce Chen | 6.28 | 2.44 | 0.74 |
| 33 | Edwin Jackson | 7.50 | 2.78 | 1.35 |
| 34 | Derek Holland | 7.52 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 35 | Ted Lilly | 6.92 | 2.73 | 0.82 |
| 36 | Kevin Millwood | 5.98 | 2.83 | 1.31 |
| 37 | Jeff Niemann | 7.33 | 2.59 | 1.44 |
| 38 | Mike Minor | 7.53 | 2.92 | 0.86 |
| 39 | Chad Billingsley | 7.53 | 3.28 | 1.36 |
| 40 | Jason Vargas | 5.85 | 2.41 | 0.93 |
| 41 | Felipe Paulino | 8.95 | 3.61 | 1.23 |
| 42 | Dillon Gee | 7.23 | 3.10 | 1.57 |
| 43 | John Danks | 6.43 | 2.93 | 1.17 |
| 44 | Gavin Floyd | 7.45 | 2.86 | 1.29 |
| 45 | Jeremy Guthrie | 5.28 | 2.64 | 1.07 |
| 46 | Wade Davis | 5.14 | 3.08 | 0.85 |
| 47 | Chris Capuano | 7.65 | 2.48 | 1.04 |
| 48 | Luke Hochevar | 6.54 | 2.91 | 1.35 |
| 49 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 7.81 | 4.41 | 1.15 |
| 50 | Mike Pelfrey | 5.06 | 2.87 | 1.44 |
Links to other player comparables...
Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Show Him Some Respect, The Chris Capuano Story
Next up on my look at the most similar pitchers to Dodger pitchers is Chris Capuano. Capuano had a very good season for the Dodgers last year, though he did teeter out towards the latter part of the season. Still, his peripherals were quite good and his good skills show up in this list of top notch pitchers in his list of comparables.
Just like Josh Beckett, Capuano's top four comparables are all the same. In fact, Josh Beckett is Capuano's number five top comparable. Beckett and Capuano both add solid depth to the Dodgers pitching staff.
Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Chris Capuano | 7.65 | 2.48 | 1.04 |
| 1 | Jered Weaver | 7.13 | 2.15 | 0.76 |
| 2 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 3 | Ian Kennedy | 8.06 | 2.32 | 0.92 |
| 4 | Matt Cain | 7.68 | 2.27 | 0.96 |
| 5 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 6 | Jordan Zimmermann | 7.01 | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| 7 | R.A. Dickey | 7.82 | 2.18 | 1.43 |
| 8 | Ervin Santana | 6.85 | 2.98 | 1.15 |
| 9 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 10 | Daniel Hudson | 6.99 | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| 11 | Shaun Marcum | 7.51 | 2.77 | 0.86 |
| 12 | Alexi Ogando | 6.66 | 2.25 | 0.95 |
| 13 | Freddy Garcia | 6.75 | 2.95 | 1.02 |
| 14 | Anibal Sanchez | 8.29 | 2.49 | 1.37 |
| 15 | Philip Humber | 6.85 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| 16 | Javier Vazquez | 7.59 | 2.34 | 0.74 |
| 17 | Edwin Jackson | 7.50 | 2.78 | 1.35 |
| 18 | Derek Holland | 7.52 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 19 | Ted Lilly | 6.92 | 2.73 | 0.82 |
| 20 | Jeff Niemann | 7.33 | 2.59 | 1.44 |
| 21 | Mike Minor | 7.53 | 2.92 | 0.86 |
| 22 | Gavin Floyd | 7.45 | 2.86 | 1.29 |
| 23 | Homer Bailey | 7.26 | 2.25 | 1.20 |
| 24 | Ryan Dempster | 8.18 | 3.10 | 1.23 |
| 25 | Jake Peavy | 7.84 | 2.01 | 0.86 |
| 26 | Carlos Villanueva | 7.37 | 2.29 | 0.75 |
| 27 | Phil Hughes | 7.39 | 2.30 | 0.69 |
| 28 | Wei-Yin Chen | 7.21 | 2.67 | 0.88 |
| 29 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 30 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 31 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 32 | Johnny Cueto | 6.73 | 2.24 | 1.70 |
| 33 | Roy Halladay | 8.03 | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| 34 | Cliff Lee | 8.99 | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| 35 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 36 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 37 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
| 38 | Doug Fister | 6.96 | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| 39 | C.J. Wilson | 7.95 | 3.63 | 1.63 |
| 40 | Jeremy Hellickson | 6.02 | 3.17 | 0.97 |
| 41 | CC Sabathia | 8.81 | 2.12 | 1.56 |
| 42 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 43 | Hiroki Kuroda | 6.97 | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| 44 | Kyle Kendrick | 6.17 | 2.27 | 1.32 |
| 45 | Dan Haren | 7.25 | 1.63 | 1.05 |
| 46 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.32 | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| 47 | Ross Detwiler | 5.57 | 2.68 | 1.59 |
| 48 | Matt Garza | 8.68 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
| 49 | Brandon McCarthy | 6.20 | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| 50 | Kyle Lohse | 5.82 | 1.76 | 1.13 |
Previous Similar Pitcher Tables
Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Who Is Similar To Josh Beckett?
Well, next up on the Dodgers starting pitcher depth chart is Josh Beckett who came over to the Dodgers in their much belliehood trade with the Red Sox last year. Below, are the Top 50 most similar pitchers "peripheral-wise", based on K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB over the past two seasons.
So are you impressed that his number one comparable pitcher is Jered Weaver who has gone 38-13 for the Angels over the past two seasons? The big difference being that Weaver has outpitched his FIP/xFIP by quite a bit while Beckett has not. Could be some luck involved there for Weaver or perhaps pitching in a ballpark that turns fly balls in to outs. The two pitchers are at different points on the aging curve, but over the past two years their peripherals have been highly comparable.
2012 Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 1 | Jered Weaver | 7.13 | 2.15 | 0.76 |
| 2 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 3 | Ian Kennedy | 8.06 | 2.32 | 0.92 |
| 4 | Matt Cain | 7.68 | 2.27 | 0.96 |
| 5 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.10 | 1.35 |
| 6 | Jordan Zimmermann | 7.01 | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| 7 | R.A. Dickey | 7.82 | 2.18 | 1.43 |
| 8 | Ervin Santana | 6.85 | 2.98 | 1.15 |
| 9 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 10 | Daniel Hudson | 6.99 | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| 11 | Wandy Rodriguez | 6.67 | 2.73 | 1.44 |
| 12 | Shaun Marcum | 7.51 | 2.77 | 0.86 |
| 13 | Alexi Ogando | 6.66 | 2.25 | 0.95 |
| 14 | Freddy Garcia | 6.75 | 2.95 | 1.02 |
| 15 | Anibal Sanchez | 8.29 | 2.49 | 1.37 |
| 16 | Philip Humber | 6.85 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| 17 | Javier Vazquez | 7.59 | 2.34 | 0.74 |
| 18 | Edwin Jackson | 7.50 | 2.78 | 1.35 |
| 19 | Derek Holland | 7.52 | 2.80 | 1.18 |
| 20 | Ted Lilly | 6.92 | 2.73 | 0.82 |
| 21 | Jeff Niemann | 7.33 | 2.59 | 1.44 |
| 22 | Mike Minor | 7.53 | 2.92 | 0.86 |
| 23 | John Danks | 6.43 | 2.93 | 1.17 |
| 24 | Gavin Floyd | 7.45 | 2.86 | 1.29 |
| 25 | Homer Bailey | 7.26 | 2.25 | 1.20 |
| 26 | Brett Myers | 6.60 | 2.40 | 1.42 |
| 27 | Chris Capuano | 7.65 | 2.48 | 1.04 |
| 28 | Luke Hochevar | 6.54 | 2.91 | 1.35 |
| 29 | Brett Cecil | 6.84 | 3.21 | 0.85 |
| 30 | Ryan Dempster | 8.18 | 3.10 | 1.23 |
| 31 | Jake Peavy | 7.84 | 2.01 | 0.86 |
| 32 | Carlos Villanueva | 7.37 | 2.29 | 0.75 |
| 33 | Brian Duensing | 6.13 | 2.48 | 1.21 |
| 34 | Phil Hughes | 7.39 | 2.30 | 0.69 |
| 35 | Wei-Yin Chen | 7.21 | 2.67 | 0.88 |
| 36 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 37 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 38 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 39 | Johnny Cueto | 6.73 | 2.24 | 1.70 |
| 40 | Roy Halladay | 8.03 | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| 41 | Cliff Lee | 8.99 | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| 42 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 43 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 44 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
| 45 | Doug Fister | 6.96 | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| 46 | C.J. Wilson | 7.95 | 3.63 | 1.63 |
| 47 | Jeremy Hellickson | 6.02 | 3.17 | 0.97 |
| 48 | Jair Jurrjens | 4.75 | 2.89 | 1.07 |
| 49 | CC Sabathia | 8.81 | 2.12 | 1.56 |
| 50 | Hiroki Kuroda | 6.97 | 2.13 | 1.56 |
Friday, November 23, 2012
Who Wants To Be A Kershaw-lionaire
Using 2011 and 2012 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out fo the qualified starting pitchers here are the "Top 50" pitchers with the most similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw. I will have lists for other Dodgers pitchers up in the near future. In this exercise I weighted the 2011 data by a factor of 3 and the the 2012 data by a factor of 5 as the most recent data has a slightly better representation of the pitcher's true talent level. Keep in mind that this exercise is just looking at what I feel are the top three peripherals and does not base its similarity scores off of handedness, age or any other factors.
Kershaw's 2011 Top Similar Pitchers
2012 Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Clayton Kershaw | 9.26 | 2.34 | 1.27 |
| 1 | Justin Verlander | 9.01 | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| 2 | Cole Hamels | 8.71 | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| 3 | James Shields | 8.55 | 2.32 | 1.59 |
| 4 | CC Sabathia | 8.81 | 2.12 | 1.56 |
| 5 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.32 | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| 6 | Matt Garza | 8.68 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
| 7 | Mat Latos | 8.18 | 2.8 | 1.18 |
| 8 | David Price | 8.75 | 2.52 | 1.61 |
| 9 | Anibal Sanchez | 8.29 | 2.49 | 1.37 |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | 9.17 | 2.32 | 1.64 |
| 11 | Chris Sale | 9 | 2.36 | 1.39 |
| 12 | Jeff Samardzija | 9.3 | 2.89 | 1.35 |
| 13 | Jarrod Parker | 6.87 | 3.11 | 1.44 |
| 14 | Stephen Strasburg | 10.97 | 2.55 | 1.31 |
| 15 | Josh Johnson | 7.87 | 3.05 | 1.52 |
| 16 | Johnny Cueto | 6.73 | 2.24 | 1.7 |
| 17 | Roy Halladay | 8.03 | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| 18 | Cliff Lee | 8.99 | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| 19 | Jered Weaver | 7.13 | 2.15 | 0.76 |
| 20 | Ryan Vogelsong | 7.33 | 3.02 | 1.21 |
| 21 | Doug Fister | 6.96 | 1.84 | 1.7 |
| 22 | Ian Kennedy | 8.06 | 2.32 | 0.92 |
| 23 | Matt Cain | 7.68 | 2.27 | 0.96 |
| 24 | Josh Beckett | 7.46 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 25 | C.J. Wilson | 7.95 | 3.63 | 1.63 |
| 26 | Vance Worley | 7.51 | 3.1 | 1.35 |
| 27 | Hiroki Kuroda | 6.97 | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| 28 | Gio Gonzalez | 9.14 | 3.67 | 1.52 |
| 29 | Jordan Zimmermann | 7.01 | 1.9 | 1.16 |
| 30 | Dan Haren | 7.25 | 1.63 | 1.05 |
| 31 | R.A. Dickey | 7.82 | 2.18 | 1.43 |
| 32 | Ervin Santana | 6.85 | 2.98 | 1.15 |
| 33 | Chris Carpenter | 7.15 | 2.03 | 1.49 |
| 34 | Felix Hernandez | 8.62 | 2.33 | 1.68 |
| 35 | Jon Lester | 7.74 | 3.18 | 1.63 |
| 36 | Daniel Hudson | 6.99 | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| 37 | Wandy Rodriguez | 6.67 | 2.73 | 1.44 |
| 38 | Yovani Gallardo | 9 | 3.19 | 1.41 |
| 39 | Shaun Marcum | 7.51 | 2.77 | 0.86 |
| 40 | Alexi Ogando | 6.66 | 2.25 | 0.95 |
| 41 | Freddy Garcia | 6.75 | 2.95 | 1.02 |
| 42 | Tommy Hanson | 8.79 | 3.52 | 1 |
| 43 | Erik Bedard | 8.57 | 3.77 | 1.23 |
| 44 | Ivan Nova | 7.1 | 3.02 | 1.55 |
| 45 | Brandon Beachy | 9.2 | 3.07 | 0.87 |
| 46 | Philip Humber | 6.85 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| 47 | Javier Vazquez | 7.59 | 2.34 | 0.74 |
| 48 | Roy Oswalt | 6.58 | 2.07 | 1.31 |
| 49 | Marco Estrada | 8.94 | 1.81 | 0.78 |
| 50 | Michael Pineda | 9.11 | 2.89 | 0.81 |
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
High Hopes For Dodgers In 2013
High Hopes For Dodgers In 2013
Los Angeles Dodgers fans had to go through the agony of watching their biggest rival, San Francisco, win their second World Series title in three seasons this October. With a stocked roster prepared for a full 2013 season together, fans are hoping that the script can be flipped around this time next year. Are the Dodgers fully prepared for a World Series run though?
As is the case with every baseball team, the Dodgers are only going to make a push in the NL West if they can remain healthy. The team started off great, but actually faltered after the big trade with the Dodgers. Injuries to franchise player Matt Kemp, as well as the pitching trio of Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly, left the team too shorthanded to hold off the hot Giants.
Speculating is hard to do in November, especially when a team figures to be a somewhat major player in the free agent market. With Josh Hamilton, James Shields, Hiroki Kuroda and Zack Greinke all receiving a heavy dose of attention from the the front office, there is a chance that the Dodgers on paper could be even better come spring training, as well as being packed with fantasy baseball starters..
With so many bats in the lineup, the Dodgers seemed focused on getting that solid #2 or #3 starter who can be relied on. With Billingsley coming off an injury and Lilly aging, Shields or Greinke could be a dominant enough pitcher to rely on in a short playoff series. If the Dodgers can learn one thing from the Giants, it is that a team must have dependable pitching in the playoffs in order to win. The offense is going to be there for the Dodgers if they stay healthy, but pitching, outside of Kershaw, has not always been there.
Many look at the Dodgers and their fall out of contention after the trade deadline as some sort of failure with the Red Sox blockbuster trade. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzales, Nick Punto and Josh Beckett will all provide value for the Dodgers in 2013, and possibly beyond. If the team can complete a few of the speculated moves in the offseason, there will be no better team in the National League up and down the roster.
Monday, September 10, 2012
September 11th - Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Simulation Results
| Wins Losses RS RA
Dodgers +--------------------------------------------------------------------
| 55411 44589 540404 449187
Hitters
| Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | RUNS | BB | SO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ellis | 4.688 | 1.437 | 0.967 | 0.352 | 0.039 | 0.079 | 0.415 | 0.391 | 0.341 | 0.865 | 0.351 |
| Shane Victorino | 4.514 | 1.449 | 0.911 | 0.304 | 0.127 | 0.107 | 0.519 | 0.478 | 0.386 | 0.670 | 0.384 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 4.468 | 1.581 | 0.985 | 0.424 | 0.011 | 0.162 | 0.824 | 0.318 | 0.392 | 0.750 | 0.417 |
| Matt Kemp | 4.368 | 1.483 | 0.931 | 0.338 | 0.062 | 0.151 | 0.750 | 0.344 | 0.362 | 1.034 | 0.404 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 4.273 | 1.393 | 0.861 | 0.337 | 0.052 | 0.143 | 0.757 | 0.312 | 0.351 | 0.919 | 0.390 |
| Andre Ethier | 4.103 | 1.341 | 0.846 | 0.352 | 0.017 | 0.126 | 0.721 | 0.241 | 0.432 | 0.859 | 0.393 |
| Luis Cruz | 4.183 | 1.279 | 0.838 | 0.353 | 0.013 | 0.075 | 0.558 | 0.223 | 0.212 | 0.763 | 0.344 |
| A.J. Ellis | 3.735 | 1.146 | 0.796 | 0.256 | 0.016 | 0.077 | 0.514 | 0.210 | 0.566 | 0.832 | 0.376 |
| Pitchers Spot | 4.051 | 0.626 | 0.498 | 0.108 | 0.007 | 0.013 | 0.227 | 0.134 | 0.161 | 1.803 | 0.174 |
| Diamondbacks | |||||||||||
| Chris Young | 4.288 | 1.195 | 0.647 | 0.407 | 0.029 | 0.111 | 0.413 | 0.317 | 0.423 | 1.034 | 0.351 |
| Aaron Hill | 4.242 | 1.280 | 0.750 | 0.354 | 0.041 | 0.136 | 0.517 | 0.275 | 0.334 | 0.696 | 0.368 |
| Jason Kubel | 4.117 | 1.119 | 0.688 | 0.218 | 0.036 | 0.176 | 0.558 | 0.232 | 0.399 | 1.443 | 0.349 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 3.996 | 1.274 | 0.694 | 0.417 | 0.014 | 0.150 | 0.606 | 0.262 | 0.415 | 1.011 | 0.398 |
| Justin Upton | 3.893 | 1.257 | 0.843 | 0.272 | 0.032 | 0.111 | 0.559 | 0.265 | 0.417 | 0.972 | 0.386 |
| Miguel Montero | 3.754 | 1.073 | 0.763 | 0.200 | 0.025 | 0.085 | 0.498 | 0.207 | 0.443 | 1.153 | 0.347 |
| Chris Johnson | 3.848 | 1.218 | 0.763 | 0.319 | 0.038 | 0.098 | 0.571 | 0.195 | 0.243 | 1.013 | 0.368 |
| John McDonald | 3.728 | 1.052 | 0.689 | 0.277 | 0.039 | 0.048 | 0.456 | 0.184 | 0.247 | 0.733 | 0.325 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.713 | 0.570 | 0.447 | 0.106 | 0.005 | 0.012 | 0.222 | 0.110 | 0.171 | 1.660 | 0.177 |
Pitchers
| Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 5.959 | 6.884 | 1.818 | 6.730 | 0.634 | 99.2 | 3.187 |
| Brandon League | 0.465 | 0.450 | 0.170 | 0.515 | 0.024 | 7.7 | 3.028 |
| Ronald Belisario | 0.405 | 0.426 | 0.160 | 0.453 | 0.029 | 6.8 | 3.208 |
| Randy Choate | 0.600 | 0.689 | 0.277 | 0.666 | 0.060 | 10.4 | 3.582 |
| Matt Guerrier | 0.299 | 0.272 | 0.139 | 0.380 | 0.041 | 5.2 | 4.566 |
| Shawn Tolleson | 0.240 | 0.258 | 0.129 | 0.291 | 0.039 | 4.3 | 4.806 |
| John Ely | 0.536 | 0.491 | 0.263 | 0.686 | 0.077 | 9.5 | 4.704 |
| Jamey Wright | 0.261 | 0.245 | 0.136 | 0.316 | 0.023 | 4.6 | 4.016 |
| Diamondbacks | |||||||
| Ian Kennedy | 5.674 | 4.765 | 1.761 | 7.595 | 0.611 | 95.5 | 3.850 |
| J.J. Putz | 0.369 | 0.492 | 0.078 | 0.365 | 0.026 | 5.9 | 2.105 |
| David Hernandez | 0.372 | 0.563 | 0.141 | 0.344 | 0.026 | 6.3 | 2.219 |
| Brad Ziegler | 0.617 | 0.546 | 0.228 | 0.767 | 0.021 | 10.4 | 2.984 |
| Matt Lindstrom | 0.300 | 0.282 | 0.122 | 0.374 | 0.027 | 5.2 | 3.690 |
| Matt Albers | 0.193 | 0.188 | 0.094 | 0.249 | 0.027 | 3.4 | 4.542 |
| Bryan Shaw | 0.952 | 0.935 | 0.417 | 1.187 | 0.095 | 16.6 | 3.846 |
| Mike Zagurski | 0.679 | 0.722 | 0.362 | 0.854 | 0.099 | 12.3 | 4.564 |
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
Labels:
2012 Simulations,
Clayton Kershaw,
Diamondbacks,
Dodgers,
Ian Kennedy
Sunday, September 09, 2012
September 9th - Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results
| Wins Losses RS RA
Dodgers +-----------------------------------------------------------------------
| 56520 43480 392851 316786
Vegas Odds
Money Line: Dodgers -158/+148 (or Dodgers have a 60.47% chance of winning)
Run Totals: Over 7 +110, Under 7 -130
Hitters
| Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | RUNS | BB | SO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ellis | 4.478 | 1.250 | 0.827 | 0.320 | 0.021 | 0.083 | 0.337 | 0.274 | 0.323 | 0.740 | 0.326 |
| Shane Victorino | 4.350 | 1.230 | 0.817 | 0.253 | 0.078 | 0.083 | 0.378 | 0.330 | 0.303 | 0.607 | 0.333 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 4.336 | 1.289 | 0.897 | 0.250 | 0.006 | 0.135 | 0.586 | 0.191 | 0.268 | 0.841 | 0.344 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 4.159 | 1.249 | 0.764 | 0.304 | 0.026 | 0.155 | 0.603 | 0.217 | 0.343 | 0.810 | 0.367 |
| Andre Ethier | 4.100 | 1.121 | 0.792 | 0.211 | 0.008 | 0.110 | 0.497 | 0.169 | 0.303 | 0.992 | 0.322 |
| Juan Rivera | 4.023 | 1.086 | 0.722 | 0.240 | 0.005 | 0.118 | 0.469 | 0.160 | 0.256 | 0.698 | 0.320 |
| Luis Cruz | 3.972 | 1.114 | 0.710 | 0.318 | 0.007 | 0.079 | 0.410 | 0.171 | 0.196 | 0.655 | 0.321 |
| A.J. Ellis | 3.597 | 1.001 | 0.699 | 0.217 | 0.008 | 0.077 | 0.401 | 0.152 | 0.470 | 0.757 | 0.344 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.836 | 0.559 | 0.441 | 0.101 | 0.004 | 0.013 | 0.179 | 0.101 | 0.143 | 1.548 | 0.165 |
| Giants | |||||||||||
| Angel Pagan | 4.226 | 1.184 | 0.774 | 0.280 | 0.076 | 0.054 | 0.260 | 0.330 | 0.282 | 0.856 | 0.326 |
| Marco Scutaro | 4.132 | 1.209 | 0.876 | 0.263 | 0.020 | 0.050 | 0.347 | 0.242 | 0.238 | 0.497 | 0.324 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 4.068 | 1.167 | 0.742 | 0.308 | 0.029 | 0.088 | 0.432 | 0.196 | 0.256 | 0.816 | 0.336 |
| Buster Posey | 3.840 | 1.149 | 0.756 | 0.287 | 0.003 | 0.103 | 0.478 | 0.173 | 0.391 | 0.814 | 0.360 |
| Hunter Pence | 3.848 | 1.034 | 0.689 | 0.223 | 0.016 | 0.106 | 0.459 | 0.158 | 0.285 | 1.013 | 0.322 |
| Brandon Belt | 3.708 | 0.866 | 0.607 | 0.169 | 0.025 | 0.066 | 0.366 | 0.124 | 0.305 | 1.157 | 0.284 |
| Gregor Blanco | 3.603 | 0.825 | 0.617 | 0.115 | 0.027 | 0.066 | 0.322 | 0.138 | 0.295 | 1.224 | 0.277 |
| Brandon Crawford | 3.575 | 0.812 | 0.588 | 0.155 | 0.032 | 0.037 | 0.290 | 0.135 | 0.205 | 0.971 | 0.262 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.554 | 0.457 | 0.359 | 0.085 | 0.003 | 0.010 | 0.145 | 0.093 | 0.131 | 1.674 | 0.149 |
Pitchers
| Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 6.61 | 6.934 | 1.526 | 6.38 | 0.442 | 102.8 | 2.664 |
| Brandon League | 0.51 | 0.432 | 0.159 | 0.50 | 0.017 | 8.0 | 2.876 |
| Ronald Belisario | 0.41 | 0.368 | 0.137 | 0.40 | 0.019 | 6.5 | 3.001 |
| Randy Choate | 0.55 | 0.564 | 0.197 | 0.53 | 0.035 | 8.9 | 3.054 |
| Javy Guerra | 0.24 | 0.198 | 0.103 | 0.24 | 0.011 | 3.9 | 3.457 |
| Matt Guerrier | 0.18 | 0.138 | 0.069 | 0.19 | 0.016 | 2.9 | 4.004 |
| Shawn Tolleson | 0.31 | 0.290 | 0.143 | 0.33 | 0.033 | 5.2 | 4.117 |
| Jamey Wright | 0.12 | 0.099 | 0.053 | 0.13 | 0.007 | 2.0 | 3.572 |
| Giants | |||||||
| Barry Zito | 6.16 | 4.405 | 1.702 | 6.91 | 0.595 | 97.0 | 3.856 |
| Sergio Romo | 0.41 | 0.513 | 0.084 | 0.34 | 0.033 | 6.3 | 2.362 |
| Javier Lopez | 0.41 | 0.363 | 0.137 | 0.41 | 0.020 | 6.5 | 3.066 |
| Santiago Casilla | 0.61 | 0.633 | 0.192 | 0.59 | 0.061 | 9.7 | 3.365 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 0.27 | 0.257 | 0.087 | 0.25 | 0.012 | 4.2 | 2.845 |
| Jose Mijares | 0.15 | 0.150 | 0.052 | 0.14 | 0.011 | 2.4 | 3.152 |
| Guillermo Mota | 0.74 | 0.748 | 0.231 | 0.73 | 0.075 | 11.8 | 3.434 |
| George Kontos | 0.55 | 0.578 | 0.119 | 0.53 | 0.045 | 8.5 | 2.818 |
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
Labels:
2012 Simulations,
Barry Zito,
Clayton Kershaw,
Dodgers,
Giants
Friday, September 07, 2012
September 8th - Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results
| Wins Losses RS RA
Dodgers +-----------------------------------------------------
| 47860 52140 354815 350533
Hitters
| Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | RUNS | BB | SO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ellis | 4.454 | 1.136 | 0.782 | 0.258 | 0.023 | 0.072 | 0.264 | 0.234 | 0.211 | 1.006 | 0.290 |
| Shane Victorino | 4.293 | 1.157 | 0.774 | 0.229 | 0.071 | 0.082 | 0.314 | 0.308 | 0.241 | 0.755 | 0.315 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 4.259 | 1.274 | 0.813 | 0.306 | 0.006 | 0.149 | 0.571 | 0.181 | 0.242 | 0.858 | 0.352 |
| Matt Kemp | 4.150 | 1.170 | 0.753 | 0.244 | 0.032 | 0.141 | 0.519 | 0.207 | 0.231 | 1.192 | 0.336 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 4.053 | 1.109 | 0.703 | 0.243 | 0.027 | 0.136 | 0.513 | 0.192 | 0.226 | 1.055 | 0.328 |
| Andre Ethier | 3.925 | 1.066 | 0.685 | 0.255 | 0.009 | 0.118 | 0.479 | 0.136 | 0.267 | 0.990 | 0.326 |
| Luis Cruz | 3.916 | 1.009 | 0.673 | 0.260 | 0.006 | 0.070 | 0.370 | 0.131 | 0.132 | 0.865 | 0.289 |
| A.J. Ellis | 3.576 | 0.911 | 0.645 | 0.187 | 0.008 | 0.072 | 0.335 | 0.120 | 0.372 | 0.971 | 0.312 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.761 | 0.420 | 0.336 | 0.069 | 0.003 | 0.012 | 0.125 | 0.070 | 0.095 | 2.033 | 0.126 |
| Giants | |||||||||||
| Angel Pagan | 4.230 | 1.214 | 0.783 | 0.283 | 0.079 | 0.069 | 0.287 | 0.340 | 0.291 | 0.765 | 0.337 |
| Marco Scutaro | 4.135 | 1.230 | 0.884 | 0.263 | 0.020 | 0.063 | 0.379 | 0.244 | 0.248 | 0.445 | 0.332 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 4.072 | 1.199 | 0.750 | 0.308 | 0.030 | 0.112 | 0.480 | 0.204 | 0.264 | 0.727 | 0.349 |
| Buster Posey | 3.837 | 1.185 | 0.766 | 0.289 | 0.003 | 0.128 | 0.530 | 0.180 | 0.404 | 0.730 | 0.375 |
| Hunter Pence | 3.848 | 1.074 | 0.704 | 0.224 | 0.015 | 0.130 | 0.510 | 0.166 | 0.295 | 0.913 | 0.338 |
| Brandon Belt | 3.708 | 0.916 | 0.630 | 0.177 | 0.026 | 0.083 | 0.405 | 0.135 | 0.317 | 1.027 | 0.302 |
| Gregor Blanco | 3.604 | 0.870 | 0.640 | 0.118 | 0.030 | 0.081 | 0.360 | 0.147 | 0.311 | 1.097 | 0.294 |
| Brandon Crawford | 3.579 | 0.843 | 0.603 | 0.160 | 0.034 | 0.045 | 0.323 | 0.143 | 0.215 | 0.858 | 0.274 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.560 | 0.495 | 0.390 | 0.088 | 0.004 | 0.013 | 0.160 | 0.098 | 0.137 | 1.505 | 0.160 |
Pitchers
| Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Capuano | 6.387 | 5.854 | 1.559 | 6.601 | 0.572 | 99.807 | 3.263 |
| Brandon League | 0.461 | 0.391 | 0.142 | 0.447 | 0.016 | 7.207 | 2.893 |
| Ronald Belisario | 0.404 | 0.369 | 0.138 | 0.399 | 0.020 | 6.458 | 3.052 |
| Randy Choate | 0.573 | 0.588 | 0.203 | 0.547 | 0.037 | 9.234 | 3.053 |
| Javy Guerra | 0.246 | 0.208 | 0.107 | 0.248 | 0.012 | 4.032 | 3.428 |
| Matt Guerrier | 0.184 | 0.144 | 0.072 | 0.201 | 0.017 | 3.011 | 3.978 |
| Shawn Tolleson | 0.386 | 0.368 | 0.180 | 0.396 | 0.040 | 6.493 | 4.048 |
| Jamey Wright | 0.178 | 0.145 | 0.081 | 0.187 | 0.010 | 2.950 | 3.662 |
| Giants | |||||||
| Matt Cain | 6.572 | 6.774 | 1.157 | 6.628 | 0.623 | 101.100 | 2.898 |
| Sergio Romo | 0.452 | 0.639 | 0.082 | 0.359 | 0.034 | 6.929 | 1.902 |
| Javier Lopez | 0.419 | 0.392 | 0.140 | 0.419 | 0.020 | 6.708 | 2.969 |
| Santiago Casilla | 0.601 | 0.643 | 0.192 | 0.602 | 0.063 | 9.715 | 3.391 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 0.255 | 0.250 | 0.098 | 0.243 | 0.013 | 4.132 | 3.038 |
| Jose Mijares | 0.141 | 0.145 | 0.058 | 0.141 | 0.011 | 2.335 | 3.373 |
| Guillermo Mota | 0.543 | 0.553 | 0.207 | 0.553 | 0.060 | 8.934 | 3.747 |
| George Kontos | 0.311 | 0.330 | 0.084 | 0.308 | 0.028 | 4.928 | 3.063 |
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
Labels:
2012 Simulations,
Chris Capuano,
Dodgers,
Giants,
Matt Cain
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