Showing posts with label Ian Kennedy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ian Kennedy. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/1




                            Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDodgersPadresCountRankDodgersPadresCount
1125607651814259
2235016752674171
3214481053074118
4323892054824040
5013834455473693
6343328656753660
7103177957833417
8313175558803345
9132925559183229
10202816560283213
11022606661763151
12432538862572978
13422453563382679
14242234764912583
15302201665842580
16412179166082514
17032038567922432
18142032968482171
19451887169902101
20401601570852063
21521577571931973
22511507272191966
23531497673291964
24041481474781742
25251451075391597
26541412276861587
27151339777581573
28351309478941547
295011382791011497
306210137801021444
3161991281091422
3205989682871313
3356948583681279
34639188841001257
35268861851031173
3616861486491163
37367912872101154
3864779788951150
39607743891101118
4065694190310941
414666389159911
4271647892111888
4306638293010845
447263799496835
4573563895104829
4627538996112817
4717535897410759
487051149869675
4937458999111670
50744562100105663

Notes: 1 million games were simulated.

Monday, September 10, 2012

September 11th - Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Simulation Results



                   |    Wins      Losses            RS          RA
  Dodgers  +--------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |    55411    44589          540404    449187

Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Mark Ellis4.6881.4370.9670.3520.0390.0790.4150.3910.3410.8650.351
Shane Victorino4.5141.4490.9110.3040.1270.1070.5190.4780.3860.6700.384
Adrian Gonzalez4.4681.5810.9850.4240.0110.1620.8240.3180.3920.7500.417
Matt Kemp4.3681.4830.9310.3380.0620.1510.7500.3440.3621.0340.404
Hanley Ramirez4.2731.3930.8610.3370.0520.1430.7570.3120.3510.9190.390
Andre Ethier4.1031.3410.8460.3520.0170.1260.7210.2410.4320.8590.393
Luis Cruz4.1831.2790.8380.3530.0130.0750.5580.2230.2120.7630.344
A.J. Ellis3.7351.1460.7960.2560.0160.0770.5140.2100.5660.8320.376
Pitchers Spot4.0510.6260.4980.1080.0070.0130.2270.1340.1611.8030.174
Diamondbacks           
Chris Young4.2881.1950.6470.4070.0290.1110.4130.3170.4231.0340.351
Aaron Hill4.2421.2800.7500.3540.0410.1360.5170.2750.3340.6960.368
Jason Kubel4.1171.1190.6880.2180.0360.1760.5580.2320.3991.4430.349
Paul Goldschmidt3.9961.2740.6940.4170.0140.1500.6060.2620.4151.0110.398
Justin Upton3.8931.2570.8430.2720.0320.1110.5590.2650.4170.9720.386
Miguel Montero3.7541.0730.7630.2000.0250.0850.4980.2070.4431.1530.347
Chris Johnson3.8481.2180.7630.3190.0380.0980.5710.1950.2431.0130.368
John McDonald3.7281.0520.6890.2770.0390.0480.4560.1840.2470.7330.325
Pitchers Spot3.7130.5700.4470.1060.0050.0120.2220.1100.1711.6600.177

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Clayton Kershaw5.9596.8841.8186.7300.63499.23.187
Brandon League0.4650.4500.1700.5150.0247.73.028
Ronald Belisario0.4050.4260.1600.4530.0296.83.208
Randy Choate0.6000.6890.2770.6660.06010.43.582
Matt Guerrier0.2990.2720.1390.3800.0415.24.566
Shawn Tolleson0.2400.2580.1290.2910.0394.34.806
John Ely0.5360.4910.2630.6860.0779.54.704
Jamey Wright0.2610.2450.1360.3160.0234.64.016
Diamondbacks       
Ian Kennedy5.6744.7651.7617.5950.61195.53.850
J.J. Putz0.3690.4920.0780.3650.0265.92.105
David Hernandez0.3720.5630.1410.3440.0266.32.219
Brad Ziegler0.6170.5460.2280.7670.02110.42.984
Matt Lindstrom0.3000.2820.1220.3740.0275.23.690
Matt Albers0.1930.1880.0940.2490.0273.44.542
Bryan Shaw0.9520.9350.4171.1870.09516.63.846
Mike Zagurski0.6790.7220.3620.8540.09912.34.564

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

August 30th - Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score




                   |    Wins      Losses            RS          RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------------
                   |    62335    37665         387847     296503


Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Chris Young4.2841.0020.60.3150.0080.0790.2650.210.3331.1770.289
Aaron Hill4.2251.0740.690.2810.0120.0910.3330.1790.2490.8110.301
Jason Kubel4.1390.9150.6120.1670.0090.1260.3730.1460.2861.6570.277
Paul Goldschmidt4.0421.0910.6410.3320.0040.1130.4210.1790.2851.1610.328
Justin Upton3.8991.0460.7410.2170.0090.080.3680.180.3291.1290.317
Miguel Montero3.7720.8940.670.1530.0070.0640.3280.1310.3431.3090.286
Chris Johnson3.8141.0070.670.2540.0080.0750.3840.1270.1911.160.303
Jake Elmore3.6410.9130.6470.2170.0080.0410.3220.110.2510.9190.289
Pitchers Spot3.6710.4270.3420.0750.0010.0090.1310.0670.1271.9220.135
Dodgers           
Mark Ellis4.2861.20.860.2630.020.0570.270.2910.2820.7340.316
Shane Victorino4.1191.2120.830.2570.0530.0710.340.3690.3280.540.343
Matt Kemp4.0931.2780.8520.2760.030.120.5930.2840.2940.8920.365
Adrian Gonzalez3.9831.2970.8310.3420.0060.1180.6480.2150.330.6160.382
Hanley Ramirez3.8911.1750.7860.270.0260.0930.5060.2360.2910.760.352
Andre Ethier3.7361.1060.7310.280.0080.0870.5070.1690.360.7270.353
Luis Cruz3.7731.0330.6920.2750.0080.0580.4150.1520.1810.670.308
A.J. Ellis3.5610.9730.7180.1970.0070.0510.3750.130.2890.7940.314
Pitchers Spot3.6250.5220.4270.0830.0030.0090.1530.0980.1261.5440.16

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Ian Kennedy6.1444.7941.6317.1380.48897.8743.469
J.J. Putz0.410.5080.0750.3630.0266.3022.098
David Hernandez0.4030.5240.1360.3540.0256.5392.411
Brad Ziegler0.6020.4530.1830.670.0189.5882.985
Matt Lindstrom0.2640.2130.0920.290.0164.2833.449
Matt Albers0.1990.1760.080.2250.023.323.97
Bryan Shaw0.4660.4130.1780.5130.0417.6923.717
Mike Zagurski0.2120.1980.1080.2410.0283.6784.567
Dodgers       
Clayton Kershaw6.6458.1741.4935.9730.502103.6892.395
Ronald Belisario0.4760.5710.1340.4070.0277.4752.377
Randy Choate0.4110.5210.1360.3510.0316.6012.627
Brandon League0.6030.5620.2030.6120.0339.6883.066
Shawn Tolleson0.2440.2450.0960.2430.0244.0043.644
Josh Wall0.1320.1210.0490.1420.0142.1653.851
Jamey Wright0.5140.5410.2160.4830.0288.463.071
Kenley Jansen0.2660.5110.0680.1570.0214.2251.151

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Monday, May 14, 2012

May 14th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations


VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ARILANIan Kennedy vs Clayton KershawLAN59.84%57.55%TBD
CINATLHomer Bailey vs Randall DelgadoATL56.71%53.30%TBD
DETCHADrew Smyly vs John DanksDET53.49%51.16%TBD
KCTEXBruce Chen vs Scott FeldmanTEX63.77%66.28%TBD
OAKLAATyson Ross vs Dan HarenLAA65.99%65.76%TBD
SEABOSJason Vargas vs Jon LesterBOS62.55%64.26%TBD
HOUPHILucas Harrell vs Joe BlantonPHI61.98%65.05%TBD
NYABALIvan Nova vs Jason HammelNYA51.22%51.50%TBD
SDWASTim Stauffer vs Ross DetwilerWAS59.18%56.64%TBD
TBTORJeff Niemann vs Brandon MorrowTOR57.81%55.93%TBD
MILNYNYovanni Gallardo vs Miguel BatistaMIL57.08%57.40%TBD
PITFLABrad Lincoln vs Anibal SanchezFLA65.03%70.09%TBD
CLEMINJeanmar Gomez vs Carl PavanoCLE54.55%NATBD
CHNSTLRyan Dempster vs Jake WestbrookSTL60.16%63.58%TBD
COLSFChris Friedrich vs Ryan VogelsongSF53.49%NATBD

Current ROI: 8.41%

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MLB Depth Charts

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

May 3rd Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHNCINRyan Dempster vs Homer BaileyCIN58.42%60.16%TBD
CLECHAJustin Masterson vs John DanksCHA53.16%51.48%TBD
NYAKCDavid Phelps vs Danny DuffyNYA55.06%52.44%TBD
PHIATLJoe Blanton vs Randall DelgadoATL54.65%56.27%TBD
SEATBKevin Millwood vs Jeff NiemannTB64.60%62.33%TBD
TORLAABrandon Morrow vs Dan HarenLAA55.46%62.62%TBD
PITSTLErik Bedard vs Jake WestbrookSTL59.92%56.88%TBD
FLASFAnibal Sanchez vs Ryan VogelsongFLA50.86%55.19%TBD
ARIWASIan Kennedy vs Ross DetwilerARI50.86%51.68%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

September 13th Simulations



Cy Young Preview Part I ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
DBacks Dodgers I.Kennedy vs C.Billingsley DBacks 54.33% 51.35% ARI 5-4
TB BAL David Price vs Alfredo Simon TB TBD 54.308 TBD
MIN KC Carl Pavano vs Bruce Chen KC TBD 51.36 TBD
COL MIL Esmil Rogers vs Zach Greinke MIL TBD 60.447 TBD
WAS NYN Chien-Ming Wang vs Dillon Gee NYN TBD 58.113 TBD
SD SF Cory Luebke vs Matt Cain SF TBD 60.303 TBD
FLA ATL Brad Hand vs Mike Minor ATL TBD 70.307 TBD
STL PIT Chris Carpenter vs Jeff Karstens STL TBD 62.605 TBD
CHN CIN Ryan Dempster vs Mike Leake CIN TBD 53.01 TBD
CLE TEX Justin Masterson vs Matt Harrison TEX TBD 60.503 TBD
TOR BOS Brandon Morrow vs Tim Wakefield BOS TBD 59.265 TBD
NYA SEA A.J. Burnett vs Charles Furbush NYA TBD 61.722 TBD
LAA OAK Jerome Williams vs Guillermo Moscoso OAK TBD 59.662 TBD
DET CHA Justin Verlander vs Gavin Floyd DET TBD 54.291 TBD
PHI HOU Cole Hamels vs J.A. Happ PHI TBD 62.429 TBD


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Sunday, August 07, 2011

August 7th Simulations



Sweep Time ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs I.Kennedy DBacks 51.22% 53.66% ARI 4-3
CIN CHN Bronson Arroyo vs Randy Wells CHN TBD 52.791 TBD
CHA MIN Jake Peavy vs Brian Duensing MIN TBD 53.349 TBD
MIL HOU Zach Greinke vs Bud Norris MIL TBD 58.24 TBD
CLE TEX Josh Tomlin vs Colby Lewis TEX TBD 60.331 TBD
NYA BOS Freddy Garcia vs Josh Beckett BOS TBD 57.301 TBD
DET KC Max Scherzer vs Bruce Chen DET TBD 57.158 TBD
OAK TB Trevor Cahill vs David Price TB TBD 59.044 TBD
SD PIT Mat Latos vs Kevin Correia SD TBD 54.809 TBD
STL FLA Jaime Garcia vs Javier Vazquez STL TBD 60.715 TBD
SEA LAA Felx Hernandez vs Ervin Santana LAA TBD 55.804 TBD
PHI SF Roy Oswalt vs Tim Lincecum SF TBD 57.818 TBD
TOR BAL Ricky Romero vs Alfredo Simon BAL TBD 51.046 TBD
ATL NYN Mike Minor vs Dillon Gee NYN TBD 55.991 TBD
WAS COL John Lannan vs Aaron Cook COL TBD 57.04 TBD


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Saturday, July 16, 2011

July 16th Simulations



Kuroda Trade Bait ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers DBacks H.Kuroda vs I.Kennedy DBacks 55.65% 55.85% ARI 3-2
Nationals Braves J.Lannan vs T.Hanson Braves 63.57% 62.04% WAS 5-2
White Sox Tigers E.Jackson vs M.Scherzer Tigers TBD 57.28% CHA 5-0
Cardinals Reds C.Carpenter vs B.Arroyo Cardinals TBD 59.80% STL 4-1
Brewers Rockies Z.Greinke vs J.Chacin Rockies TBD 56.43% MIL 8-7
Royals Twins J.Francis vs C.Pavano Twins TBD 58.61% MIN 4-3
Rangers Mariners C.Wilson vs F.Hernandez Rangers TBD 53.56% TBD
Yankees Blue Jays C.Sabathia vs R.Romero Yankees TBD 63.03% NYA 4-1
Giants Padres B.Zito vs C.Luebke Padres TBD 58.14% SD 11-3
Red Sox Rays J.Lackey vs J.Shields Rays TBD 51.07% BOS 9-5
Pirates Astros P.Maholm vs B.Norris Astros TBD 55.51% HOU 6-4
Phillies Mets C.Hamels vs J.Niese Phillies TBD 52.05% NYN 11-2
Indians Orioles C.Carrasco vs A.Simon Orioles TBD 53.10% BAL 6-5
Marlins Cubs J.Vazquez vs C.Zambrano Cubs TBD 62.38% FLA 13-3
Angels Atheletics J.Weaver vs T.Cahill Angels TBD 51.66% LAA 4-2
Angels Atheletics E.Santana vs R.Harden Atheletics TBD 50.66% OAK 4-3


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Sunday, May 15, 2011

May 15th Simulations



Dodgers Woes Date Back to 1914 ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
DBacks Dodgers I.Kennedy vs T.Lilly DBacks 51.22% 52.61% ARI 4-1
Cardinals Reds C.Carpenter vs T.Wood Cardinals 51.22% 41.17% CIN 9-7
Mariners Indians M.Pineda vs J.Tomlin Indians 51.46% 49.86% Ppd.
Red Sox Yankees J.Lester vs F.Garcia Red Sox 55.95% 50.67% BOS 7-5
Blue Jays Twins B.Morrow vs B.Duensing Blue Jays 56.14% 46.77% TOR 11-3
White Sox Athletics M.Buehrle vs T.Cahill Athletics 60.16% 60.23% CHA 4-3
Orioles Rays J.Arrieta vs A.Sonnanstine Rays 52.61% 48.61% BAL 9-3
Marlins Nationals J.Vazquez vs J.Marquis Nationals 54.75% 56.76% WAS 8-4
Angels Rangers E.Santana vs C.Wilson Rangers 56.14% 63.33% TEX 5-4
Pirates Brewers K.Correia vs Z.Greinke Brewers 62.26% 60.43% MIL 9-6
Padres Rockies M.Latos vs J.Hammel Rockies 57.26% 64.95% SD 8-2
Phillies Braves R.Halladay vs T.Hudson Phillies 52.38% 54.81% ATL 3-2
Mets Astros C.Capuano vs A.Rodriguez Mets 53.05% 54.45% NYN 7-4


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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Diamondbacks vs Rockies, Opening Day Simulation

Here is a simulation of the Diamondbacks and Rockies opening day game. Both teams starting pitchers for their first game of the season are locks. I have used starting lineups from the wonderful site MLBDepthCharts.Com. Below are the box scores from the simulation along with the results.

Lineups
PlayerPos PlayerPos
Stephen DrewSS Dexter FowlerCF
Justin UptonRF Seth SmithRF
Kelly Johnson2B Carlos GonzalezLF
Chris YoungCF Troy TulowitzkiSS
Miguel MonteroC Todd Helton1B
Xavier NadyLF Ian Stewart3B
Melvin Mora3B Jose Lopez2B
Juan Miranda1B Chris IannettaC
Ian KennedyP Ubaldo JimenezP


... And now the results!

AwayHome  FavoriteWin/Prob
ARICOLIan KennedyUbaldo JimenezCOL71.79%


It looks like the Rockies will be big favorites to win their opening day game against the Diamondbacks. This is not a big surprise as the Rockies are the stronger of the two teams, the starting pitching matchup is clearly not even and the game is being played in Denver. Besides Putz, the Diamondbacks bullpen gets hammered.

Here is the hitter(s) boxscores
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Stephen Drew4.3371.2070.7220.3090.0950.0810.3470.4351.070.346
Justin Upton4.1961.1760.7710.2660.0170.1230.4330.3921.4010.343
Kelly Johnson4.1171.1090.650.3030.0470.1090.4540.451.2080.344
Chris Young4.0461.0110.610.2670.0180.1160.4970.3741.2370.318
Miguel Montero3.9621.0520.6670.2870.020.0770.450.41.1050.327
Xavier Nady3.9241.0690.7040.2480.0060.1110.480.2841.1230.326
Melvin Mora3.8181.1230.7480.2680.0230.0840.4390.2770.8740.343
Juan Miranda3.791.1480.7910.2610.0140.0820.4470.2350.6470.344
Ian Kennedy3.7550.4270.3460.0680.0030.010.1440.1432.150.134
 
Dexter Fowler4.3121.4290.8350.3570.1290.1070.4720.4690.930.406
Seth Smith4.1951.3730.7720.3450.0440.2120.6790.5010.8840.419
Carlos Gonzalez4.1881.5510.8590.3430.0880.2610.8660.440.9850.467
Troy Tulowitzki4.1141.4370.8060.3610.0570.2130.8550.3570.7670.433
Todd Helton3.8121.3670.8350.350.0270.1550.7540.6050.7330.445
Ian Stewart3.8641.2350.6980.3260.0370.1750.760.4360.9070.406
Jose Lopez3.9461.2690.8190.3170.020.1130.6340.1970.5540.368
Chris Iannetta3.6561.0990.6850.2790.0160.1190.5630.3820.7750.37
Ubaldo Jimenez3.7840.5930.4740.0980.0060.0150.2160.1621.6940.178


And the pitchers boxscore
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Ubaldo Jimenez6.2017.3872.2456.1950.435102.7762.816
Huston Street0.4110.5070.0760.3990.0366.4292.416
Matt Belisle0.390.4420.0620.4040.0396.072.718
Rafael Betancourt0.7281.0730.1350.6740.10211.5652.634
Matt Lindstrom0.380.3610.1280.4410.0456.33.857
Matt Reynolds0.770.7810.2540.9170.10412.8983.918
Matt Daley0.2530.2610.0880.2870.0324.2193.834
Franklin Morales0.0040.0040.0020.0050.0010.0684.607
 
Ian Kennedy5.2145.0882.0347.0620.83991.3674.51
J.J. Putz0.3260.4110.0990.3510.035.4242.796
Juan Gutierrez0.4250.4070.1580.570.0767.3724.722
David Hernandez0.7240.7160.3540.9760.13813.0565.172
Esmerling Vasquez0.4760.4840.3120.610.078.9095.058
Aaron Heilman0.8130.7420.3681.1320.14514.5225.049
Joe Paterson0.4490.3680.2170.6290.0698.0324.999
Mike Hampton0.0170.0130.0070.0240.0020.3034.634