Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/9

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Tigers	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	47257		51	1	7	5750
2	1	2	42579		52	0	6	5728
3	3	4	38070		53	8	2	5455
4	3	2	33824		54	8	3	5137
5	2	1	30881		55	7	6	5116
6	4	3	26697		56	5	7	5089
7	1	3	25711		57	7	0	5039
8	3	1	25550		58	8	1	4961
9	4	5	25331		59	8	4	4356
10	4	2	23971		60	2	8	4175
11	2	4	23770		61	3	8	3891
12	0	1	22718		62	0	7	3789
13	4	1	19590		63	1	8	3780
14	1	4	19130		64	8	5	3532
15	0	2	18203		65	7	8	3453
16	5	3	17740		66	9	2	3415
17	5	4	17599		67	4	8	3377
18	5	2	17236		68	8	0	3217
19	2	0	16920		69	9	3	3189
20	1	0	16441		70	9	1	3016
21	2	5	16405		71	5	8	2963
22	3	5	16317		72	8	6	2891
23	3	0	15502		73	9	4	2672
24	0	3	15314		74	2	9	2568
25	5	1	14729		75	8	7	2426
26	5	6	14623		76	0	8	2418
27	1	5	13349		77	6	8	2406
28	4	0	12850		78	1	9	2399
29	6	2	12128		79	3	9	2312
30	6	3	11869		80	9	5	2094
31	0	4	11737		81	9	0	2076
32	6	1	10692		82	4	9	2053
33	6	4	10617		83	10	2	1993
34	2	6	10561		84	10	3	1975
35	3	6	10516		85	10	1	1892
36	5	0	9848		86	10	4	1618
37	4	6	9717		87	2	10	1601
38	6	5	9638		88	3	10	1570
39	1	6	8934		89	5	9	1539
40	0	5	8367		90	9	6	1538
41	7	2	8319		91	8	9	1480
42	7	3	7775		92	0	9	1424
43	6	7	7415		93	1	10	1391
44	7	1	7362		94	6	9	1306
45	6	0	7203		95	10	0	1253
46	7	4	6756		96	9	7	1249
47	2	7	6677		97	10	5	1240
48	3	7	6353		98	11	2	1193
49	4	7	5948		99	4	10	1186
50	7	5	5861		100	11	3	1058

Note: One million games simulated.

Anibal Sanchez, Is He Any Good?

Yes.  Yes he is.  He seems to be a good value play as a free agent this off-season.  He doesn't have the glitz and glamour but he has the arm and a solid group of comparable pitchers for his three most important skill based peripherals.  While his K/9 is down from his 2011 campaign, he did walk less batters and raise his GB/FB ratio.  Anibal Sanchez is going to make some team a nice little starting pitcher.  Who will be the lucky suitor.

Top 20 Most Similar Starting Pitchers

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
NA	Anibal Sanchez	8.29	2.49	1.37
1	Josh Johnson	7.87	3.05	1.52
2	Clayton Kershaw	9.26	2.34	1.27
3	Roy Halladay	8.03	1.73	1.51
4	Justin Verlander	9.01	2.18	1.09
5	Cole Hamels	8.71	2.06	1.36
6	Ryan Vogelsong	7.33	3.02	1.21
7	James Shields	8.55	2.32	1.59
8	Josh Beckett	7.46	2.62	1.08
9	CC Sabathia	8.81	2.12	1.56
10	Vance Worley	7.51	3.10	1.35
11	Madison Bumgarner	8.32	2.09	1.41
12	R.A. Dickey	7.82	2.18	1.43
13	Matt Garza	8.68	2.83	1.42
14	Chris Carpenter	7.15	2.03	1.49
15	Felix Hernandez	8.62	2.33	1.68
16	Mat Latos	8.18	2.80	1.18
17	David Price	8.75	2.52	1.61
18	Yovani Gallardo	9.00	3.19	1.41
19	Edwin Jackson	7.50	2.78	1.35
20	Zack Greinke	9.17	2.32	1.64

Note: Peripherals are 2011 and 2012 stats, with the 2012 stats carrying a weight of 5 and the 2011 stats carrying a weight of 3.

May 3rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHN	CIN	Ryan Dempster vs Homer Bailey	CIN	58.42%	60.16%	TBD
CLE	CHA	Justin Masterson vs John Danks	CHA	53.16%	51.48%	TBD
NYA	KC	David Phelps vs Danny Duffy	NYA	55.06%	52.44%	TBD
PHI	ATL	Joe Blanton vs Randall Delgado	ATL	54.65%	56.27%	TBD
SEA	TB	Kevin Millwood vs Jeff Niemann	TB	64.60%	62.33%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Brandon Morrow vs Dan Haren	LAA	55.46%	62.62%	TBD
PIT	STL	Erik Bedard vs Jake Westbrook	STL	59.92%	56.88%	TBD
FLA	SF	Anibal Sanchez vs Ryan Vogelsong	FLA	50.86%	55.19%	TBD
ARI	WAS	Ian Kennedy vs Ross Detwiler	ARI	50.86%	51.68%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 27th Simulations

Pitching Wins Championships, Shitty Defense Loses Games ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Billingsley vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	53.92%	57.76%	LAN 5-4
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Reyes vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.24%	63.01%	TEX 7-6
Mets	Nationals	R.Dickey vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	51.92%	48.29%	NYN 6-3
Mariners	Tigers	E.Bedard vs J.Verlander	Tigers	66.10%	63.60%	SEA 10-1
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.90%	59.46%	TB 8-2
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs M.Latos	Braves	50.98%	48.79%	ATL 7-0
Cardinals	Astros	K.Lohse vs J.Happ	Cardinals	56.71%	64.05%	STL 6-5
Athletics	Angels	T.Ross vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.64%	OAK 2-1
Reds	Brewers	S.LeCure vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	59.51%	57.02%	CIN 7-6
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Beckett vs J.Guthrie	Red Sox	59.68%	50.95%	BAL 5-4
Giants	Pirates	M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald	Giants	54.75%	54.04%	PIT 2-0
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs C.Coleman	Rockies	57.45%	56.62%	Ppd.
White Sox	Yankees	M.Buehrle vs B.Colon	Yankees	59.68%	59.40%	NYA 3-1
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs J.Saunders	Phillies	60.16%	59.23%	PHI 8-4
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs J.Tomlin	Indians	57.26%	55.32%	CLE 7-2

Seasonal ROI: -2.10%

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