Showing posts with label 2014 Simulations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 Simulations. Show all posts

Friday, August 15, 2014

Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/15



AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSFave Win%Total RS
BrewersDodgersJimmy NelsonZach GreinkeDodgers2.9983.53359.25%6.531


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankBrewersDodgersOccurrencesRankBrewersDodgersOccurrences
12353145147510
21252475260496
33439255318491
42133775471486
53233325575436
61332665608428
70131865757421
82426905882386
90225065938383
101424626083367
114324206176362
120323816229356
134523466319350
143123296470322
154220746581311
161019186684303
172518936709275
180418026839274
194117556948248
202017407085248
213517157158242
221516507278233
235314967392224
245414957480214
2530143975110210
2652137976210209
270512037749208
285111767891207
292611637993185
3016113180310183
3156112581010176
323610718286176
33409848368162
34469098494159
35639038587153
366289086410137
37068148795136
386481488211135
392779289111131
40617699059130
41177679190126
426574392102120
435071193103117
440759394311116
453759295101112
467258796104106
47735509769103
48675419896102
4928524998994
507451810021288
.
Miscellaneous Notes:

1) The best defensive players on the Brewers are CF-Carlos Gomez, SS-Jean Segura and C-Jonathon Lucroy

2) Brewers 2B-Scooter Gennett can not hit left-handed pitching to save his life.  Rickie Weeks will hit for him if a LHP comes in to face him.

3) The Brewers have three former starting pitchers in their bullpen... Zach Duke (169 GS), Tom Gorzelanny (121 GS) and Marco Estrada (71 GS).

4) The Brewers have three holes in their bullpen... Marco Estrada, Jeremy Jeffress and Brandon Kintzler.

5) Brewers hitters do not draw very many walks... Lucroy and Reynolds are the only two who draw an average amount of walks.

6) Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson is probably better than projection systems currently give him credit for.



Friday, May 09, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsDodgersMadison BumgarnerPaul MaholmGiants4.004083.2891755.4487.29325



                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
12342595147586
21237065205572
33436995337563
43234065457559
52129285576533
64326935627506
73126885784504
84225685880467
94525005993462
104122876092454
111322006191445
125319596217421
130119586306400
142419586485388
155219356538375
165117976678372
175417796728345
183017136886320
192016086994316
201015737048287
213515387190287
221415297218280
2356148173102276
2402146174101273
256314517568266
266214377695264
2740143377103260
282513957858256
296113297907252
305012228087249
316412128139243
3203113682104230
336510888329214
3472108484100212
357110178596199
36159808619175
37469738749173
38609668808167
397393889111166
40369179089164
412687391105154
42048209259152
437480693112150
446773994113146
45827199569144
46817099697142
477067797110142
481667698310140
498367399210131
5075661100114119

Thursday, May 08, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Thursday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsDodgersRyan VogelsongJosh BeckettDodgers3.288154.0638261.1047.35197

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
12347235174618
23440285257590
31239635338576
43228555475560
51327755550550
62427275671479
74525195776471
82124665848455
94324325929427
101423506008416
112520696182414
124220506284409
130120176360404
143119526419390
150219366578390
160319076639379
173518386758378
181517326883374
195416706985332
200415887081308
215315567109307
225615477249304
234114507386292
245214157468288
2536135675210284
2626135176110267
271612877794257
281012397870248
290512177993247
302011718092236
3146114281310234
326310808259230
336510738387219
345110408491197
3527101285410191
3664101286211189
373098287010185
380693788111185
39629268989184
40179249095183
41378609169177
42678499296161
434777593103161
444076294311157
45617129597151
467370496102144
471866297510140
487266098104138
49076599980134
5028647100610128

Disclaimer: Game simulated 100K times.

Sunday, May 04, 2014

Dodgers vs Nationals - Monday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersNationalsZach GreinkeJordan ZimmermannDodgers3.453.1951.68%6.64

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersNatsOccurrencesRankDodgersNatsOccurrences
11247125167500
22346945247494
33237045370475
42136175482461
53434835581457
63130645676431
74327855783414
84227745828399
90125855907380
101325556057375
114123466184370
122022456218344
132421876338336
144521876480329
151021506592315
160219726648309
173019326785294
185218986891280
195318296993271
201418127008266
215417517178233
225116597286229
234015977390226
243515127458225
250314747519224
262514267629212
271513347739211
285612387894206
2963119979102205
300411928049190
316211598168173
325011368287171
3361108583101167
346499384103149
35369708509147
36269228659147
37168828795146
386587588210132
394683689310126
40058249096124
416078991104118
427273492112118
437167993110115
44736699489115
457459795100113
462758096113104
470655597111100
48175499841099
4937542996996
50755301009795

Note: 100,000 games were simulated.

Saturday, May 03, 2014

Dodgers vs Marlins - Saturday's Simulation Results


Simulation Results...
AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersMarlinsPaul MaholmJacob TurnerDodgers4.885944.0429156.0978.92885

Box Score...


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersMarlinsOccurrencesRankDodgersMarlinsOccurrences
12329955185708
23428965278704
34525935337701
44324985427675
53224595581660
61221675660658
74221095792650
85420865893623
92118655904612
105318526086562
112418266158561
125217566294557
135617546348553
143117526470547
153517316587532
164116086691531
171315356738522
186315196817513
196514746905486
206414487068485
212514017195474
226213587228468
2351132173102437
241413117480415
2536124075101414
2646121276103407
2774115877104387
286711417896375
297311087989350
307210618039343
316110318118342
327510028297338
33269558349337
34209278406333
353092385105316
360191386113311
371590587112304
38768958890301
39408658959297
40718649069290
41838419198282
42828299207273
435781593106271
44028069429270
451080495114253
464779696111247
470377997115233
488476298124230
49507149979226
5016712100310224

Disclaimer: Based off of 100K simulations with input statistics from Fangraphs Zips(U)

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Tuesday's Dodgers vs Twins Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersTwinsZach GreinkeKyle GibsonDodgers4.232663.1771659.5077.40982

                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersTwinsOccurrencesRankDodgersTwinsOccurrences
12337925184602
21235065276568
33232705380560
43432415491557
52129785505542
64326655647535
73126645737531
84225205892513
94123425985480
104521626057465
115220146193463
125319656227448
135119366390386
1413190364102380
155418536594379
163018066617368
172417876778364
182017796806357
190117546986326
2040174570103326
211016147128323
2262159472101308
236115317395306
245015027438299
256314517548299
261414477687290
273513547758276
285613487818266
290213247968246
3025126580104234
3164121381100233
327211798207231
3360108383111227
347110808496222
3573104685112199
3665103086113195
37039718729190
38159348839180
393689889105180
40468799089167
41748579149163
42828299219156
43708179369152
442680794114149
458177895121144
460477796110143
47837429797142
48677399808140
497571799106134
501660310059133

Monday, April 21, 2014

Phillies vs Dodgers - Monday's Simulation Results


                                           *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFavoriteAway RS/GHome RS/GWin %Total Runs
PhilliesDodgersCliff LeePaul MaholmDodgers3.403.4552.966.85

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankPhilliesDodgersOccurrencesRankPhilliesDodgersOccurrences
12348805147571
21245165275514
33437005382489
43234145457480
52132845528471
60127705681452
74326915770436
81325945807423
93125325984422
102423856076417
114523616183412
124223586218388
130221656338377
144120166448326
151419726585325
161018036678320
172017826792299
185317736829292
190317186958289
202517187008288
215216917193288
223516317219283
235416297391277
243015697480256
251513877539248
265113467686241
270413437794231
285613217868219
294012237949216
3062117480102195
316311248187188
323610668209183
332610448390177
346497184101168
356196685110166
36469598695166
37509538759160
380592888210159
396590289310158
40168939096149
417275291410147
427370892104138
43676719369132
44746719489130
457166595103129
46606619697114
472765697112114
483764598010112
490663699111108
5017583100100101

Notes: Based off of 100K simulations

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Sunday's Simulation Results


                                                 *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteRuns/GameRuns/GameWin %Total R/G
DbacksDodgersJosh CollmenterJosh BeckettDodgers3.436613.9054558.1487.34206

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
12346415175620
23439995276601
31238705307570
43229545471552
51327505528522
64527465618506
72427445783506
84325825838488
92125105960484
101422486084438
114220836182434
122520276258396
133520086348395
143119826485380
150118686581370
160218446608369
170318226778362
185417836829356
195317406970343
205617017019329
211516377186323
224116317239316
235215437393303
240414837468292
253613207587290
262612807649277
2710120677210256
282011807894256
291611487992246
305111358091231
310511258109224
324611018295222
336310878359221
3464108784110214
356510678580208
3662104986310181
373010478796180
382789488103164
396184989102163
40068379089159
411782691104150
423781292410147
43678009369147
444078394105141
454773795010137
46737129679134
477270797101134
48746959897131
49506309998127
5057620100211125

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results (Saturday 4/19)


                                                     *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFavoriteDbacks RSDodgers RSDodgers %Total Runs
DbacksDodgersMichael BolsingerDan HarenDodgers3.162293.8336460.4176.99593

                                     Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
12347365150588
21243335218538
33438895375532
41331505457507
53230755571505
62428135638479
72127215708449
84526025876446
94325455983424
101425146082411
110123646160410
120321766229399
134221246348372
140220996419343
153120546584341
162520196678323
173519446758321
181519046885285
190417736939282
205417567081267
215316297193248
224115747270247
235214637368241
245614547486236
251013477549233
260513437692233
272613357709232
282013227887231
2916131979210222
303612698094210
3146111181110202
325110578295187
3330105283310184
3463102884010173
356410088591173
36659598680170
37279448759168
38069358896139
396292989410134
401792690111133
41408419189132
423779492104131
436172393211129
446771194102128
45476659569124
46736369697122
472861397103118
487260798105116
497460799101113
5007589100311109

Friday, April 11, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/12


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343461751176575
2233283852846564
3452906453106549
4432393454386505
5322346255826403
6122240256856367
7562147357286237
8541966258486122
9241867159055918
10421854460865846
11531750561505770
12351713062585766
13211651863875412
14131587164685264
15311517665815093
16521492566934814
17251470967184757
18651424768604755
19671395969394720
20641356770924573
21141355371064554
22411317172894546
23631306573944444
24461292274294406
25361268275494344
26621145676954013
27261144977593794
28151111178963765
29511075979703750
3074966980913554
3176962681073433
3273940382693393
33759392831033334
3437904784193329
35478932853103305
3601877586973216
37728652871023132
38618617881043130
39168595894103015
40578541902102984
4127849191792973
4278834692982922
4302807293802797
44037956941052707
45307658955102603
4620750796082592
47047063971012487
48406804981102327
49716804991132241
508367441009102235

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 4/11




                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores (1 million simualtions)
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343414251016435
2453047652206427
3232970853406408
4432395154586365
5562309755026263
6322240556176230
7542073457876201
8121884158036196
9421816659286157
10531786060685914
11241769361045724
12351743662505381
13671552963895214
14651541764105117
15521493365395008
16641447566934990
17251437167944943
18211432468054867
19311430969814744
20131356270494689
21461355871184648
22631342472604580
23361275073924564
24411244374294553
25141209875954438
26621151176594310
27261127477964086
28761043178064002
29511038879693831
30751028080973738
31741019781913505
3215998682703465
33739701833103463
3447967084983426
35789416851033394
36579386861043381
37379363874103320
3872879888793310
3927848389193244
40618465901023212
41168013912103197
42837104925102967
43847061931052948
4448695694072944
45856898959102710
4638683296802647
47306740971062608
48866540986102398
49826523991012371
507165181003112362

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/9




                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankTigersDodgersOccurrencesRankTigersDodgersOccurrences
1234725751175750
2124257952065728
3343807053825455
4323382454835137
5213088155765116
6432669756575089
7132571157705039
8312555058814961
9452533159844356
10422397160284175
11242377061383891
12012271862073789
13411959063183780
14141913064853532
15021820365783453
16531774066923415
17541759967483377
18521723668803217
19201692069933189
20101644170913016
21251640571582963
22351631772862891
23301550273942672
24031531474292568
25511472975872426
26561462376082418
27151334977682406
28401285078192399
29621212879392312
30631186980952094
31041173781902076
32611069282492053
336410617831021993
342610561841031975
353610516851011892
36509848861041618
37469717872101601
38659638883101570
3916893489591539
4005836790961538
4172831991891480
4273777592091424
43677415931101391
4471736294691306
45607203951001253
4674675696971249
47276677971051240
48376353981121193
49475948994101186
507558611001131058

Note: One million games simulated.

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/8



                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankTigersDodgersOccurrencesRankTigersDodgersOccurrences
1234801251475576
2124346052065302
3343854653705291
4323556254175156
5213269755835000
6432749356814935
7312715857764886
8132548558574693
9422545959844196
10452494360283869
11242332261383578
12012331262803546
13412089063923437
14201863364853389
15141833965073368
16531810066183350
17521802167783169
18101767868913081
19021764969933064
20541743770483035
21301709171582714
22351635672862699
23251600273942573
24511588174292300
25031439975872264
26401404176392200
27561383677682187
28621268278902169
291512326791022096
30631189980082035
31611128081192029
320410780821031947
33501074383951915
346410591841011858
35361011785491821
36269875861041523
3765963187961480
3846920188591414
39728472892101383
4016823590891321
41737880913101266
4260774592091250
43717683931001246
44057536941051224
45746915951101190
4667688796691176
4727607997971158
48375904981111134
49755682991121113
508256011004101089

Saturday, April 05, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/6



                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
1125283951745130
2235145352475049
3343700553284671
4213582954184606
5323406455754153
6013311956573903
7133101057383811
8312614658823752
9022601459703729
10242473360083674
11432438861763510
12142322062833430
13032238463813388
14422230564193094
15102210465482981
16452202366292915
17202021567842881
18411855168392385
19251715469092358
20041649670782355
21301619271852321
22151595672582320
23351534873802303
24521474674922185
25531471375912124
26541442376932023
27511257177861913
28051209678491908
294011756792101893
305611511801101884
31261102581681707
32161087182941696
33361027483871541
34629445843101517
35639424850101490
3661846386901398
3750838587951385
38068353881021308
3946833189591293
40648278901031182
41657489911011167
42177369922111136
43277247934101110
44376226941111093
4572608095691058
46735838961041008
476057429789984
480756779896974
4971537399311916
50675307100011837

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Friday, April 04, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/5



                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
1234799451475272
2124793552704953
3343634353824695
4213571054754624
5323550755814419
6012899756574326
7312839457074297
8132678658284254
9432561659834075
10422435060764070
11242264661183933
12452251662383796
13102201163843432
14022156964803236
15412126865483024
16202083266082868
17141946967922837
18301825368852798
19031707269782790
20521669070292729
21531604171192689
22251562072912636
23541536473582547
24351511574932482
25511510575392420
26401416476862276
27151304577681997
28041241978941984
29561234079491970
30621114580901936
31631079881871816
32501060682091773
336110404832101707
34369847841021686
35269647851101676
36649198861011580
3705911787951542
38168995883101531
3946864889591489
40658262901031440
41727503914101241
4260748692961217
43717039931041166
4473676794891146
4527656495691137
46066129962111125
47176110971001118
48676068980101103
4974589399111998
50375870100311979

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/2


AwayHomeStarter Starter FavoriteDodgers RunsPadres RunsWin %Total Runs
DodgersPadresDan HarenTyson RossPadres2.9023.10654.6%6.01


                                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersPadresOccurrencesRankDodgersPadresOccurrences
11256975167417
22350915275391
32142905370385
40140865482383
53238465518382
63434025628379
71332805747358
80230025881326
91029475976319
103128116038308
114325576183308
120324826208296
132423926357293
142023476484269
151423376580231
164223196619227
174119576748225
184518946885211
190418586991205
203017017029200
211515797192196
225315317209194
232515117378184
245214617493182
253514067539178
265413997686163
2751129977110154
2805128378102153
294012577958152
302610078090152
31169598194151
32629588287129
335691883101129
34639088449119
35618508595117
365084286103112
37068378768109
383683588210108
39647708901095
40467009031095
4165691915987
42176649211182
4327618939682
44725899410078
45605849541071
46715539610571
47735509710468
48075389811266
49375149921163
507449410011163