Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/6

                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	52839		51	7	4	5130
2	2	3	51453		52	4	7	5049
3	3	4	37005		53	2	8	4671
4	2	1	35829		54	1	8	4606
5	3	2	34064		55	7	5	4153
6	0	1	33119		56	5	7	3903
7	1	3	31010		57	3	8	3811
8	3	1	26146		58	8	2	3752
9	0	2	26014		59	7	0	3729
10	2	4	24733		60	0	8	3674
11	4	3	24388		61	7	6	3510
12	1	4	23220		62	8	3	3430
13	0	3	22384		63	8	1	3388
14	4	2	22305		64	1	9	3094
15	1	0	22104		65	4	8	2981
16	4	5	22023		66	2	9	2915
17	2	0	20215		67	8	4	2881
18	4	1	18551		68	3	9	2385
19	2	5	17154		69	0	9	2358
20	0	4	16496		70	7	8	2355
21	3	0	16192		71	8	5	2321
22	1	5	15956		72	5	8	2320
23	3	5	15348		73	8	0	2303
24	5	2	14746		74	9	2	2185
25	5	3	14713		75	9	1	2124
26	5	4	14423		76	9	3	2023
27	5	1	12571		77	8	6	1913
28	0	5	12096		78	4	9	1908
29	4	0	11756		79	2	10	1893
30	5	6	11511		80	1	10	1884
31	2	6	11025		81	6	8	1707
32	1	6	10871		82	9	4	1696
33	3	6	10274		83	8	7	1541
34	6	2	9445		84	3	10	1517
35	6	3	9424		85	0	10	1490
36	6	1	8463		86	9	0	1398
37	5	0	8385		87	9	5	1385
38	0	6	8353		88	10	2	1308
39	4	6	8331		89	5	9	1293
40	6	4	8278		90	10	3	1182
41	6	5	7489		91	10	1	1167
42	1	7	7369		92	2	11	1136
43	2	7	7247		93	4	10	1110
44	3	7	6226		94	1	11	1093
45	7	2	6080		95	6	9	1058
46	7	3	5838		96	10	4	1008
47	6	0	5742		97	8	9	984
48	0	7	5677		98	9	6	974
49	7	1	5373		99	3	11	916
50	6	7	5307		100	0	11	837

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/24

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/12

Dodgers vs Giants - July 5th Simulation Results

Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Matt Cain vs Clayton Kershaw

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 56.17%
Giants on average score 2.87 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.22 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.09

Starting Pitching Lines:
Matt Cain - 6.4ip, 6.2so, 1.7bb, 6.3hits, 0.5hrs, 100pitches, 3.101fip
Clayton Kershaw - 6.6ip, 8.2so, 1.9bb, 5.5hits, 0.4hrs, 104pitches, 2.383fip

Giants player most likely to hit a HR: Buster Posey
Dodgers player most likely to hit a HR: Matt Kemp

Giants hitter most strikeouts: Brandon Belt (1.6 times)
Dodgers hitter most strikeouts: Matt Kemp (1.2 times)

Giants hitter most walks: Buster Posey (0.433 times)
Dodgers hitter most walks: AJ Ellis (0.447 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 59.76%
Over/Under: 6 -115o +105u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Dodgers 1-0
4. Giants 2-1
5. Giants 3-2
6. Dodgers 4-3
7. Dodgers 3-1
8. Dodgers 2-0
9. Giants 1-0
10. Giants 3-1
11. Dodgers 3-0
12. Giants 4-3
13. Dodgers 4-2
14. Giants 2-0
15. Dodgers 4-1
16. Giants 4-2
17. Dodgers 5-4
18. Dodgers 4-0
19. Giants 4-1
20. Giants 3-0
.
.
100. Dodgers 9-8

September 8th - Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results

                   |      Wins      Losses           RS        RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------
                   |     47860      52140        354815  350533

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Mark Ellis	4.454	1.136	0.782	0.258	0.023	0.072	0.264	0.234	0.211	1.006	0.290
Shane Victorino	4.293	1.157	0.774	0.229	0.071	0.082	0.314	0.308	0.241	0.755	0.315
Adrian Gonzalez	4.259	1.274	0.813	0.306	0.006	0.149	0.571	0.181	0.242	0.858	0.352
Matt Kemp	4.150	1.170	0.753	0.244	0.032	0.141	0.519	0.207	0.231	1.192	0.336
Hanley Ramirez	4.053	1.109	0.703	0.243	0.027	0.136	0.513	0.192	0.226	1.055	0.328
Andre Ethier	3.925	1.066	0.685	0.255	0.009	0.118	0.479	0.136	0.267	0.990	0.326
Luis Cruz	3.916	1.009	0.673	0.260	0.006	0.070	0.370	0.131	0.132	0.865	0.289
A.J. Ellis	3.576	0.911	0.645	0.187	0.008	0.072	0.335	0.120	0.372	0.971	0.312
Pitchers Spot	3.761	0.420	0.336	0.069	0.003	0.012	0.125	0.070	0.095	2.033	0.126
Giants
Angel Pagan	4.230	1.214	0.783	0.283	0.079	0.069	0.287	0.340	0.291	0.765	0.337
Marco Scutaro	4.135	1.230	0.884	0.263	0.020	0.063	0.379	0.244	0.248	0.445	0.332
Pablo Sandoval	4.072	1.199	0.750	0.308	0.030	0.112	0.480	0.204	0.264	0.727	0.349
Buster Posey	3.837	1.185	0.766	0.289	0.003	0.128	0.530	0.180	0.404	0.730	0.375
Hunter Pence	3.848	1.074	0.704	0.224	0.015	0.130	0.510	0.166	0.295	0.913	0.338
Brandon Belt	3.708	0.916	0.630	0.177	0.026	0.083	0.405	0.135	0.317	1.027	0.302
Gregor Blanco	3.604	0.870	0.640	0.118	0.030	0.081	0.360	0.147	0.311	1.097	0.294
Brandon Crawford	3.579	0.843	0.603	0.160	0.034	0.045	0.323	0.143	0.215	0.858	0.274
Pitchers Spot	3.560	0.495	0.390	0.088	0.004	0.013	0.160	0.098	0.137	1.505	0.160

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chris Capuano	6.387	5.854	1.559	6.601	0.572	99.807	3.263
Brandon League	0.461	0.391	0.142	0.447	0.016	7.207	2.893
Ronald Belisario	0.404	0.369	0.138	0.399	0.020	6.458	3.052
Randy Choate	0.573	0.588	0.203	0.547	0.037	9.234	3.053
Javy Guerra	0.246	0.208	0.107	0.248	0.012	4.032	3.428
Matt Guerrier	0.184	0.144	0.072	0.201	0.017	3.011	3.978
Shawn Tolleson	0.386	0.368	0.180	0.396	0.040	6.493	4.048
Jamey Wright	0.178	0.145	0.081	0.187	0.010	2.950	3.662
Giants
Matt Cain	6.572	6.774	1.157	6.628	0.623	101.100	2.898
Sergio Romo	0.452	0.639	0.082	0.359	0.034	6.929	1.902
Javier Lopez	0.419	0.392	0.140	0.419	0.020	6.708	2.969
Santiago Casilla	0.601	0.643	0.192	0.602	0.063	9.715	3.391
Jeremy Affeldt	0.255	0.250	0.098	0.243	0.013	4.132	3.038
Jose Mijares	0.141	0.145	0.058	0.141	0.011	2.335	3.373
Guillermo Mota	0.543	0.553	0.207	0.553	0.060	8.934	3.747
George Kontos	0.311	0.330	0.084	0.308	0.028	4.928	3.063

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 27th Simulation Results

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHA	TEX	Chris Sale vs Yu Darvish	TEX	55.85%	59.22%	TBD
PHI	ATL	Cole Hamels vs Ben Sheets	PHI	50.74%	55.48%	TBD
TB	LAA	Alex Cobb vs Dan Haren	LAA	61.46%	55.84%	TBD
STL	CHN	Lance Lynn vs Travis Wood	STL	60.86%	64.18%	TBD
BOS	NYA	Aaron Cook vs Phil Hughes	NYA	61.46%	60.09%	TBD
OAK	BAL	Jarrod Parker vs Zach Britton	BAL	50.62%	56.57%	TBD
DET	TOR	Rick Porcello vs Carlos Villanueva	TOR	53.38%	45.49%	TBD
SD	FLA	Kip Wells vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	56.24%	57.55%	TBD
PIT	HOU	Jeff Karstens vs Jordan Lyles	PIT	58.25%	51.03%	TBD
CLE	MIN	Josh Tomlin vs Scott Diamond	MIN	53.16%	60.62%	TBD
WAS	MIL	Ross Detwiler vs Michael Fiers	MIL	55.85%	58.25%	TBD
CIN	COL	Bronson Arroyo vs Drew Pomeranz	CIN	51.57%	49.99%	TBD
NYN	ARI	John Niese vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	56.80%	49.57%	TBD
KC	SEA	Jeremy Guthrie vs Blake Beavan	SEA	54.65%	50.33%	TBD
LAN	SF	Stephen Fife vs Matt Cain	SF	OFF	62.37%	TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Giants Able To Sign Matt Cain

The Giants signed Matt Cain to a 6 year $127.5M deal. Is he worth this kind of money? No, probably not. He did amass 5.2 fWAR last year and if for some reason you think that is his new baseline then one could probably make an argument in his favor. But let's keep in mind that he did so putting up an unsustainable 0.37 HR/9, 70.6 LOB% and a low BABIP against of 0.260. The Giants bought high on Matt Cain. Let's take a look at three of the main skill stats (K/9, BB/9, GB/FB) that a pitcher can control and compare Matt Cain to his recent peers. The comparison will not take into consideration age, as I am just looking at current skill comparables. I looked at 2010 and 2011 data only.

	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
1	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
2	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
3	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
4	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
5	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
6	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
7	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
8	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
9	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
10	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
11	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
12	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
13	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
14	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
15	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
16	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
17	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
18	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
19	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
20	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
21	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
22	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
23	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
24	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
25	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
26	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34

So, not exactly a stellar group of comparables. Good but not elite or record breaking good.

May18th Simulations

Matt Kemp Saves The Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	M.Cain vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	54.23%	47.35%	SF 8-5
Angels	Mariners	J.Weaver vs J.Vargas	Angels	56.24%	51.29%	SEA 3-0
Cubs	Marlins	R.Dempster vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	58.85%	60.86%	CHN 7-5
Rangers	Royals	A.Ogando vs D.Duffy	Rangers	56.24%	54.87%	TEX 5-4
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Hellickson vs J.Litsch	Rays	50.00%	51.86%	TB 6-5
Tigers	Red Sox	P.Coke vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	61.17%	57.10%	BOS 1-0
Indians	White Sox	J.Masterson vs J.Peavy	White Sox	53.38%	43.38%	CHA 1-0
Nationals	Mets	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Niese	Mets	53.27%	58.36%	NYN 3-0
Braves	DBacks	J.Teheran vs J.Saunders	Braves	52.27%	51.58%	ARI 5-4
Twins	Athletics	C.Pavano vs B.McCarthy	Athletics	61.69%	68.81%	MIN 4-3
Yankees	Orioles	B.Colon vs Z.Britton	Orioles	54.13%	54.17%	NYA 4-1
Rockies	Phillies	J.de la Rosa vs C.Hamels	Phillies	57.54%	59.04%	PHI 2-1
Astros	Cardinals	B.Norris vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	62.62%	64.56%	STL 5-1
Brewers	Padres	Y.Gallardo vs D.Moseley	Brewers	55.46%	48.90%	MIL 5-2
Pirates	Reds	C.Morton vs B.Arroyo	Reds	59.92%	60.39%	PIT 5-0

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