Giants vs Cardinals - NLCS Game 1 Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Cardinals	Madison Bumgarner	Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	3.23	3.31	53.97	6.54

                                        Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Cardinals	Occurences		Rank	Giants	Cardinals	Occurences
1	1	2	51984		51	0	7	5049
2	2	3	50320		52	7	5	4734
3	3	4	37246		53	4	7	4615
4	2	1	35587		54	7	0	4435
5	3	2	34541		55	8	2	4376
6	0	1	32271		56	1	8	4193
7	1	3	29215		57	7	6	4147
8	3	1	25493		58	2	8	4038
9	4	3	25184		59	8	1	4010
10	0	2	23776		60	8	3	3931
11	1	0	23609		61	5	7	3809
12	2	4	23466		62	3	8	3513
13	4	5	22704		63	8	4	3331
14	4	2	21990		64	0	8	3204
15	1	4	21599		65	8	0	2960
16	2	0	21129		66	9	2	2800
17	0	3	20184		67	4	8	2727
18	4	1	17931		68	8	5	2682
19	3	0	16465		69	7	8	2668
20	0	4	15865		70	9	3	2550
21	5	3	15630		71	1	9	2523
22	2	5	15629		72	9	1	2518
23	5	4	15317		73	2	9	2498
24	1	5	15007		74	8	6	2225
25	5	2	14922		75	5	8	2223
26	3	5	14872		76	3	9	2169
27	5	1	13014		77	9	4	2044
28	4	0	12785		78	0	9	2016
29	5	6	12400		79	9	0	1902
30	0	5	11196		80	8	7	1814
31	6	2	10140		81	10	2	1755
32	2	6	10126		82	6	8	1728
33	1	6	9963		83	4	9	1639
34	6	3	9545		84	10	1	1635
35	5	0	9207		85	9	5	1633
36	3	6	9180		86	2	10	1542
37	6	4	9084		87	1	10	1521
38	6	1	8977		88	10	3	1498
39	6	5	8413		89	10	4	1292
40	4	6	7885		90	3	10	1269
41	0	6	7762		91	5	9	1249
42	1	7	6557		92	9	6	1221
43	6	0	6550		93	10	0	1151
44	7	2	6505		94	0	10	1148
45	2	7	6297		95	8	9	1096
46	7	3	6227		96	11	2	1046
47	7	1	6142		97	4	10	1022
48	6	7	5924		98	11	3	988
49	3	7	5468		99	6	9	985
50	7	4	5384		100	10	5	961

.
Note: Based off of 1 millions games simulated.
.

Giants vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Dodgers	Madison Bumgarner	Paul Maholm	Giants	4.00408	3.28917	55.448	7.29325

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4259		51	4	7	586
2	1	2	3706		52	0	5	572
3	3	4	3699		53	3	7	563
4	3	2	3406		54	5	7	559
5	2	1	2928		55	7	6	533
6	4	3	2693		56	2	7	506
7	3	1	2688		57	8	4	504
8	4	2	2568		58	8	0	467
9	4	5	2500		59	9	3	462
10	4	1	2287		60	9	2	454
11	1	3	2200		61	9	1	445
12	5	3	1959		62	1	7	421
13	0	1	1958		63	0	6	400
14	2	4	1958		64	8	5	388
15	5	2	1935		65	3	8	375
16	5	1	1797		66	7	8	372
17	5	4	1779		67	2	8	345
18	3	0	1713		68	8	6	320
19	2	0	1608		69	9	4	316
20	1	0	1573		70	4	8	287
21	3	5	1538		71	9	0	287
22	1	4	1529		72	1	8	280
23	5	6	1481		73	10	2	276
24	0	2	1461		74	10	1	273
25	6	3	1451		75	6	8	266
26	6	2	1437		76	9	5	264
27	4	0	1433		77	10	3	260
28	2	5	1395		78	5	8	256
29	6	1	1329		79	0	7	252
30	5	0	1222		80	8	7	249
31	6	4	1212		81	3	9	243
32	0	3	1136		82	10	4	230
33	6	5	1088		83	2	9	214
34	7	2	1084		84	10	0	212
35	7	1	1017		85	9	6	199
36	1	5	980		86	1	9	175
37	4	6	973		87	4	9	173
38	6	0	966		88	0	8	167
39	7	3	938		89	11	1	166
40	3	6	917		90	8	9	164
41	2	6	873		91	10	5	154
42	0	4	820		92	5	9	152
43	7	4	806		93	11	2	150
44	6	7	739		94	11	3	146
45	8	2	719		95	6	9	144
46	8	1	709		96	9	7	142
47	7	0	677		97	11	0	142
48	1	6	676		98	3	10	140
49	8	3	673		99	2	10	131
50	7	5	661		100	11	4	119

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/5

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	47994		51	4	7	5272
2	1	2	47935		52	7	0	4953
3	3	4	36343		53	8	2	4695
4	2	1	35710		54	7	5	4624
5	3	2	35507		55	8	1	4419
6	0	1	28997		56	5	7	4326
7	3	1	28394		57	0	7	4297
8	1	3	26786		58	2	8	4254
9	4	3	25616		59	8	3	4075
10	4	2	24350		60	7	6	4070
11	2	4	22646		61	1	8	3933
12	4	5	22516		62	3	8	3796
13	1	0	22011		63	8	4	3432
14	0	2	21569		64	8	0	3236
15	4	1	21268		65	4	8	3024
16	2	0	20832		66	0	8	2868
17	1	4	19469		67	9	2	2837
18	3	0	18253		68	8	5	2798
19	0	3	17072		69	7	8	2790
20	5	2	16690		70	2	9	2729
21	5	3	16041		71	1	9	2689
22	2	5	15620		72	9	1	2636
23	5	4	15364		73	5	8	2547
24	3	5	15115		74	9	3	2482
25	5	1	15105		75	3	9	2420
26	4	0	14164		76	8	6	2276
27	1	5	13045		77	6	8	1997
28	0	4	12419		78	9	4	1984
29	5	6	12340		79	4	9	1970
30	6	2	11145		80	9	0	1936
31	6	3	10798		81	8	7	1816
32	5	0	10606		82	0	9	1773
33	6	1	10404		83	2	10	1707
34	3	6	9847		84	10	2	1686
35	2	6	9647		85	1	10	1676
36	6	4	9198		86	10	1	1580
37	0	5	9117		87	9	5	1542
38	1	6	8995		88	3	10	1531
39	4	6	8648		89	5	9	1489
40	6	5	8262		90	10	3	1440
41	7	2	7503		91	4	10	1241
42	6	0	7486		92	9	6	1217
43	7	1	7039		93	10	4	1166
44	7	3	6767		94	8	9	1146
45	2	7	6564		95	6	9	1137
46	0	6	6129		96	2	11	1125
47	1	7	6110		97	10	0	1118
48	6	7	6068		98	0	10	1103
49	7	4	5893		99	1	11	998
50	3	7	5870		100	3	11	979

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/13

Giants vs Dodgers - July 6th Simulation Results

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results April 2

Here are the simulation results for the April 2nd game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Madison Bumgarner vs Hyun-Jin Ryu

Record: 1-0
RS: 4
RA: 0
Pythag Record: Infinity
Record As Favorites: 1-0
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 48.89%
Giants on average score 3.395 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.127 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.522

Starting Pitching Lines:
Madison Bumgarner - 6.4ip, 6.8so, 1.6bb, 6.2hits, 0.56hrs, 101pitches, 2.982fip
Hyun-Jin Ryu - 6.2ip, 6.6so, 2.3bb, 5.8hits, 0.50hrs, 100pitches, 3.233fip

Giants players most likely to hit a HR: Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval
Dodgers players most likely to hit a HR: Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier

Giants hitters most strikeouts: Brandon Belt (1.4 times), Gregor Blanco (1.2), Hunter Pence (1.1)
Dodgers hitters most strikeouts: Carl Crawford (1.2 times), Matt Kemp (1.2), Andre Ethier (1.2)

Giants hitter most walks: Buster Posey (0.51 times)
Dodgers hitter most walks: AJ Ellis (0.48 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 50.37%
Over/Under: 6.5 -120o +110u (or about 6.7 runs)

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Giants 2-1
4. Giants 3-2
5. Dodgers 4-3
6. Dodgers 1-0
7. Giants 3-1
8. Giants 4-3
9. Dodgers 3-1
10. Giants 1-0
11. Giants 4-2
12. Giants 2-0
13. Dodgers 4-2
14. Dodgers 2-0
15. Dodgers 5-4
16. Giants 4-1
17. Giants 3-0
18. Dodgers 4-1
19. Dodgers 3-0
20. Giants 5-2
.
.
100. Dodgers 10-0

August 20th - Giants vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-------------------------------------------------
                   |    58760    41240       354826   303801

   Vegas Odds:
              Money Line:  Dodgers -153/+148 (or Dodgers have a 60.08% chance of winning)
              Run Totals:    Over 6 +105, Under 6 -115
Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Angel Pagan	4.396	1.188	0.848	0.269	0.026	0.045	0.242	0.314	0.264	0.990	0.304
Marco Scutaro	4.237	1.200	0.861	0.279	0.013	0.046	0.337	0.237	0.275	0.645	0.317
Pablo Sandoval	4.211	1.188	0.769	0.325	0.010	0.084	0.429	0.189	0.257	0.934	0.327
Buster Posey	4.031	1.136	0.784	0.280	0.002	0.070	0.424	0.162	0.340	0.943	0.329
Hunter Pence	3.954	1.070	0.742	0.210	0.008	0.110	0.462	0.149	0.319	1.059	0.324
Brandon Belt	3.826	0.810	0.586	0.148	0.009	0.067	0.340	0.112	0.333	1.400	0.263
Gregor Blanco	3.729	0.850	0.639	0.128	0.015	0.069	0.326	0.137	0.317	1.283	0.276
Brandon Crawford	3.589	0.783	0.580	0.148	0.011	0.043	0.291	0.135	0.340	1.090	0.268
Pitchers Spot	3.698	0.432	0.343	0.078	0.002	0.009	0.136	0.084	0.145	1.951	0.138
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.162	1.160	0.790	0.226	0.052	0.092	0.316	0.341	0.390	0.768	0.337
Mark Ellis	4.066	1.094	0.756	0.257	0.018	0.063	0.390	0.228	0.347	0.824	0.317
Matt Kemp	3.992	1.225	0.783	0.283	0.025	0.133	0.528	0.230	0.380	0.979	0.372
Andre Ethier	3.919	0.989	0.691	0.199	0.007	0.092	0.450	0.173	0.349	1.246	0.307
Hanley Ramirez	3.786	1.104	0.696	0.285	0.017	0.106	0.486	0.216	0.384	0.864	0.357
Juan Rivera	3.730	1.010	0.670	0.245	0.004	0.090	0.469	0.153	0.313	0.712	0.325
Luis Cruz	3.682	0.980	0.630	0.289	0.020	0.040	0.360	0.157	0.249	0.770	0.309
A.J. Ellis	3.438	0.895	0.661	0.186	0.006	0.042	0.338	0.125	0.386	0.914	0.312
Pitchers Spot	3.560	0.465	0.367	0.086	0.002	0.010	0.148	0.088	0.171	1.704	0.156

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Madison Bumgarner	6.173	6.205	2.038	6.316	0.463	99.888	3.156
Sergio Romo	0.433	0.559	0.089	0.359	0.028	6.665	2.089
Jeremy Affeldt	0.423	0.382	0.136	0.437	0.023	6.771	3.055
Santiago Casilla	0.605	0.648	0.228	0.611	0.069	9.979	3.682
Javier Lopez	0.263	0.205	0.132	0.287	0.016	4.450	3.932
Clay Hensley	0.206	0.178	0.091	0.216	0.015	3.421	3.749
Jose Mijares	0.448	0.405	0.198	0.472	0.033	7.473	3.668
George Kontos	0.207	0.199	0.058	0.222	0.021	3.316	3.438
Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw	6.676	7.494	1.591	6.169	0.389	104.008	2.427
Kenley Jansen	0.470	0.783	0.150	0.307	0.025	7.518	1.525
Brandon League	0.424	0.357	0.126	0.438	0.018	6.692	2.948
Javy Guerra	0.601	0.535	0.249	0.620	0.032	9.888	3.350
Randy Choate	0.256	0.287	0.105	0.229	0.012	4.190	2.793
Ronald Belisario	0.144	0.142	0.050	0.141	0.009	2.313	3.077
Shawn Tolleson	0.511	0.491	0.212	0.530	0.048	8.477	3.733
Jamey Wright	0.223	0.207	0.106	0.223	0.011	3.731	3.443

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

September 11th Simulations

Day Of Rememberance ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	H.Kuroda vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	54.44%	64.83%	SF 8-1
FLA	PIT	Javier Vazquez vs James McDonald	PIT	TBD	55.90%	TBD
SD	ARI	Wade LeBlanc vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	TBD	63.66%	TBD
CHN	NYN	Matt Garza vs Miguel Batista	NYN	TBD	50.72%	TBD
BAL	TOR	Tommy Hunter vs Dustin McGowan	TOR	TBD	52.46%	TBD
PHI	MIL	Vance Worley vs Yovanni Gallardo	PHI	TBD	50.33%	TBD
KC	SEA	Everett Teaford vs Anthony Vasquez	SEA	TBD	52.74%	TBD
ATL	STL	Tim Hudson vs Jake Westbrook	STL	TBD	58.89%	TBD
BOS	TB	Jon Lester vs James Shields	BOS	TBD	55.65%	TBD
CLE	CHA	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Zach Stewart	CLE	TBD	52.15%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Henry Sosa vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	TBD	70.77%	TBD
OAK	TEX	Rich Harden vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	70.32%	TBD
MIN	DET	Scott Diamond vs Doug Fister	DET	TBD	68.11%	TBD
NYA	LAA	Freddy Garcia vs Ervin Santana	NYA	TBD	53.08%	TBD
CIN	COL	Edinson Volquez vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	TBD	63.11%	TBD

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July 19th Simulations

Rubby Hopes To Garner A Win ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	R.DeLaRosa vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	57.36%	64.06%	SF 5-3
Yankees	Rays	B.Colon vs J.Hellickson	Yankees	TBD	53.64%	TBD
Reds	Pirates	M.Leake vs J.McDonald	Reds	TBD	53.50%	TBD
CHA	KC	Jake Peavy vs Danny Duffy	CHA	TBD	54.694	TBD
OAK	DET	Guillermo Moscoso vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	61.302	TBD
SD	FLA	Tim Stauffer vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	TBD	56.548	TBD
CLE	MIN	Justin Masterson vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	TBD	55.325	TBD
MIL	ARI	Yovanni Gallardo vs Barry Enright	MIL	TBD	54.141	TBD
PHI	CHN	Cliff Lee vs Matt Garza	PHI	TBD	50.331	TBD
STL	NYN	Kyle Lohse vs Dillon Gee	STL	TBD	54.689	TBD
ATL	COL	Brandon Beachy vs Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	TBD	64.315	TBD
WAS	HOU	Jordan Zimmerman vs J.A. Happ	WAS	TBD	55.157	TBD
SEA	TOR	Michael Pineda vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	50.584	TBD
TEX	LAA	Alexi Ogando vs Tyler Chatwood	TEX	TBD	54.582	TBD
BOS	BAL	Kyle Weiland vs Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	TBD	50.153	TBD

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July 14th Simulations

Dodgers Earn Home Field Advantage in the World Series ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Indians	Orioles	J.Masterson vs J.Guthrie	Indians	50.86%	52.11%	CLE 8-4
Brewers	Rockies	Y.Gallardo vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	57.17%	65.17%	COL 12-3
Royals	Twins	B.Chen vs F.Liriano	Twins	59.76%	61.93%	MIN 8-4
Yankees	Blue Jays	B.Colon vs J.Reyes	Yankees	57.54%	53.43%	TOR 16-7
Giants	Padres	M.Bumgarner vs A.Harang	Padres	51.10%	42.96%	SF 6-2
Rangers	Mariners	D.Holland vs J.Vargas	Rangers	52.04%	53.39%	TEX 5-0
Marlins	Cubs	A.Sanchez vs M.Garza	Cubs	52.72%	53.19%	FLA 6-3

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