April 12th Simulations ...
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| Home
| Probable Pitching Matchup
| Favorite
| Vegas Win Prob
| Simulator Win Prob
| Final Score
|
| Dodgers
| Giants
| C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum
| Giants
| 62.55%
| 63.76%
| SF 5-4
|
| Skinny: Pretty good agreement between Vegas and Sim. Lincecum outclasses Billingsley and along with HFA is the difference maker.
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| Results: Game went according to the book as 9th most likely score hits.
|
| Phillies
| Nationals
| J.Blanton vs L.Hernandez
| Phillies
| 54.13%
| 48.17%
| WAS 7-4
|
| Skinny: Even with R.Zimmerman out the Nationals have an even shot of winning this home game against Phillies worst starter.
|
| Results: Big win for the simulator here as it nails this one.
|
| Indians
| Angels
| F.Carmona vs D.Haren
| Angels
| 62.12%
| 59.47%
| LAA 2-0
|
| Skinny: Decent pitching matchup with edge to Angels. Simulator thinks Angels are over bet a little.
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| Results: Haren brings the Indians back down to reality.
|
| Cubs
| Astros
| J.Russell vs B.Myers
| Astros
| 53.49%
| 54.43%
| HOU 11-2
|
| Skinny: Cubs put a replacement level pitcher out there on the road against one of the Astros best pitchers. Home field advantage is the difference between being favored or a dog. Pennies on the Astros.
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| Results: Astros eat up replacement level pitcher.
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| Reds
| Padres
| S.LeCure vs C.Richard
| Padres
| 53.05%
| 54.66%
| CIN 8-2
|
| Skinny: Should be a pretty close, low scoring game (7 runs?). Padres favored by their HFA margin. Pennies on the Padres.
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| Results: Well pitched low scoring game just like the sim said, until the Padres bullpen bombs in extra frames.
|
| Athletics
| White Sox
| T.Cahill vs E.Jackson
| White Sox
| 54.55%
| 50.12%
| CHA 6-5
|
| Skinny: Will the clock strike midnight on Edwin Jackson today? Simulator says to bet on it, as it's not ready to jump completely on his bandwagon yet.
|
| Results: Athletics were able to get to Edwin Jackson but the bullpen couldn't hold on to a slim lead.
|
| Rays
| Red Sox
| D.Price vs J.Lester
| Red Sox
| 62.96%
| 57.44%
| TB 3-2
|
| Skinny: The starting pitching matchup is pretty even. HFA and offense give the Red Sox a decent sized edge, but the Rays defense cuts into that edge a little. Too much Red Sox love in the ML.
|
| Results: Nice payout for a David Price pitched game, even if it was on the road in Boston against J.Lester.
|
| Rangers
| Tigers
| C.Wilson vs B.Penny
| Rangers
| 55.95%
| 56.91%
| DET 5-4
|
| Skinny: A very favorable pitching matchup for the Rangers. A pretty fair line. Pennies on the Rangers.
|
| Results: Even game. Texas was let down by their bullpen and losing Josh Hamilton to injury early in the game didn't help matters.
|
| Marlins
| Braves
| C.Volstad vs T.Hanson
| Braves
| 62.83%
| 60.69%
| TBD
|
| Skinny: A likely win for the Braves but slightly over bet. Take the underdog and hope for the best.
|
| Results: C.Volstad dug himself a hole early and Tommy Hanson was just too tough.
|
| Royals
| Twins
| J.Francis vs B.Duensing
| Twins
| 58.33%
| 61.60%
| MIN 4-3
|
| Skinny: Never fun to take a pitcher like Duensing at -140 (ML) but in this case you pretty much have to. Prepare to sweat it out.
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| Results: Twins fans definitely had to sweat this one out.
|
| Orioles
| Yankees
| C.Tillman vs A.Burnett
| Yankees
| 62.96%
| 59.35%
| Rained out.
|
| Skinny: You would've made a lot of money betting the Orioles every game so far. Let's see if the trend continues against the Yankees. Sim says to ride the horse again.
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| Results:
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| Rockies
| Mets
| E.Rogers vs J.Niese
| Mets
| 52.38%
| 55.76%
| Rained out.
|
| Skinny: A good value play on the Mets here. Just be prepared to sweat this one out as it should be a close game.
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| Results:
|
| Brewers
| Pirates
| S.Marcum vs K.Correia
| Brewers
| 53.27%
| 45.89%
| TBD
|
| Skinny: Simulator showing some love for the 5-5 Pirates here. I would probably split the difference here making a moderate wager on Pirates.
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| Results: Rained out.
|
| Cardinals
| Diamondbacks
| C.Carpenter vs A.Galarraga
| Cardinals
| 57.63%
| 60.99%
| ARI 13-8
|
| Skinny: Big pitching mismatch here. Only big worry is HFA for the Diamondbacks. Sim still says to make a solid wager here on the Cardinals.
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| Results: Definitely did not expect to see the Diamondbacks shell Carpenter.
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Seasonal ROI: 0.98%
MLB Scoreboard
Roster help to
MLB Depthcharts
The table of likely game scores is
here.
