Best Lineup - Chicago Cubs

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Chicago Cubs.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers
NL: Mets

See the results after the break.

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/28

Note: 1 million games simulated

Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 8/28

Wednesday's Cubs vs Dodgers game.  One million simulations.

Rank	Cubs	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	56539
2	2	3	55541
3	3	4	41603
4	0	1	34203
5	2	1	32005
6	1	3	31654
7	3	2	31280
8	0	2	26421
9	2	4	26195
10	4	5	24959
11	1	4	24953
12	3	1	23305
13	0	3	22595
14	4	3	22257
15	4	2	19691
16	1	0	19287
17	2	5	18837
18	1	5	17410
19	0	4	17301
20	2	0	17074
21	4	1	16868
22	3	5	16785
23	3	0	14677
24	0	5	13428
25	5	6	13044
26	5	3	12939
27	5	4	12893
28	2	6	12834
29	5	2	12647
30	1	6	12600
31	3	6	11250
32	4	0	11154
33	5	1	10625
34	0	6	9507
35	4	6	9086
36	1	7	8837
37	2	7	8775
38	6	2	7530
39	6	3	7427
40	3	7	7287
41	6	4	7017
42	6	5	6802
43	0	7	6604
44	5	0	6557
45	6	1	6312
46	6	7	6109
47	2	8	5955
48	4	7	5897
49	1	8	5857
50	3	8	4639

Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Scores 8/27

Using my simulator to simulate one million games, here is the list of the top fifty most likely final scores.

Rank	Cubs	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	64648
2	2	3	54206
3	0	1	50572
4	0	2	41272
5	1	3	39449
6	0	3	39204
7	3	4	34173
8	1	4	33034
9	0	4	32654
10	2	1	28816
11	2	4	26698
12	0	5	26359
13	1	5	24819
14	3	2	24157
15	1	0	21366
16	2	5	20924
17	0	6	19742
18	1	6	18720
19	4	5	18410
20	3	1	16837
21	4	3	15119
22	3	5	14981
23	2	0	14597
24	2	6	14546
25	0	7	13941
26	1	7	13610
27	4	2	12686
28	2	7	10572
29	3	6	10559
30	4	1	9799
31	3	0	9611
32	0	8	9588
33	1	8	9262
34	5	6	8678
35	5	4	8100
36	5	3	7527
37	2	8	7201
38	4	6	6998
39	3	7	6994
40	5	2	6980
41	0	9	6358
42	1	9	6229
43	4	0	5988
44	5	1	5445
45	2	9	4832
46	4	7	4831
47	3	8	4693
48	0	10	4056
49	6	3	3981
50	1	10	3919

Note: One million games simulated.

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/27

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/26

Notes:
- One Million games simulated
- Vegas win expectancy is 70.1%

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/4

TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES

Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences
1	2	3	35141		26	4	6	11841
2	3	4	33108		27	1	5	11562
3	1	2	27525		28	3	6	11392
4	3	2	27451		29	0	2	11094
5	4	3	25864		30	2	0	10744
6	4	5	25782		31	2	6	10708
7	4	2	21824		32	6	7	10646
8	2	1	21567		33	0	3	10641
9	5	4	19984		34	6	1	10524
10	2	4	19911		35	3	0	10387
11	5	3	18838		36	7	3	10025
12	3	1	18809		37	7	4	9831
13	1	3	18690		38	1	0	9764
14	5	6	17545		39	7	2	9594
15	5	2	17513		40	4	0	9012
16	3	5	16585		41	7	5	8738
17	4	1	16235		42	0	4	8696
18	1	4	15133		43	1	6	8621
19	2	5	15050		44	7	6	8118
20	6	3	14177		45	7	1	7920
21	6	4	13681		46	3	7	7781
22	6	5	13055		47	5	0	7592
23	5	1	13023		48	2	7	7579
24	6	2	12803		49	4	7	7360
25	0	1	12417		50	5	7	7202

Note: One million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/3

TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES

Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences
1	2	3	39889		26	3	0	13320
2	1	2	33799		27	0	3	13102
3	3	4	33152		28	1	5	12921
4	3	2	31913		29	6	4	12635
5	2	1	28309		30	6	2	12389
6	4	3	26850		31	6	5	11546
7	4	5	23260		32	6	1	10742
8	4	2	23114		33	0	4	10733
9	3	1	22406		34	4	0	10672
10	1	3	21746		35	3	6	10602
11	2	4	21239		36	2	6	10584
12	5	4	18840		37	4	6	9934
13	5	3	18506		38	7	3	9153
14	4	1	18323		39	7	2	9089
15	5	2	17832		40	1	6	9029
16	1	4	17486		41	5	0	8794
17	0	1	16582		42	7	4	8450
18	3	5	15691		43	0	5	8165
19	2	5	15211		44	6	7	8099
20	2	0	14844		45	7	1	7705
21	5	6	14568		46	7	5	7422
22	1	0	14532		47	2	7	7167
23	0	2	14325		48	3	7	6989
24	5	1	13965		49	6	0	6739
25	6	3	13445		50	7	6	6670

Note: One million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/2

August 5th Cubs vs Dodgers Simulation Box Scores

                  |   Wins      Losses         RS          RA
  Dodgers +---------------------------------------------------------
                  |   65786     34214       424168    310787

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
David DeJesus	4.286	1.221	0.833	0.278	0.039	0.071	0.286	0.258	0.398	0.811	0.337
Starlin Castro	4.364	1.285	0.987	0.199	0.033	0.066	0.336	0.216	0.144	0.823	0.315
Anthony Rizzo	4.163	1.157	0.782	0.253	0.006	0.116	0.455	0.174	0.324	0.742	0.331
Alfonso Soriano	4.155	1.021	0.631	0.251	0.005	0.134	0.491	0.162	0.207	1.136	0.297
Bryan LaHair	3.946	1.028	0.737	0.183	0.005	0.104	0.421	0.158	0.348	1.074	0.314
Steve Clevenger	3.917	1.006	0.742	0.242	0.003	0.020	0.281	0.137	0.255	0.772	0.286
Darwin Barney	3.868	1.083	0.776	0.252	0.016	0.040	0.317	0.139	0.160	0.577	0.305
Luis Valbuena	3.704	0.914	0.610	0.235	0.005	0.064	0.333	0.126	0.239	0.735	0.290
Pitchers Spot	3.707	0.477	0.388	0.078	0.002	0.008	0.138	0.087	0.121	1.748	0.144
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.243	1.277	0.876	0.242	0.053	0.106	0.365	0.407	0.377	0.540	0.357
Mark Ellis	4.169	1.205	0.863	0.248	0.023	0.072	0.449	0.275	0.318	0.642	0.332
Matt Kemp	4.094	1.359	0.900	0.272	0.033	0.153	0.611	0.295	0.342	0.776	0.393
Andre Ethier	3.914	1.218	0.768	0.315	0.010	0.125	0.612	0.237	0.447	0.727	0.381
Hanley Ramirez	3.880	1.224	0.806	0.279	0.021	0.118	0.577	0.254	0.351	0.677	0.375
James Loney	3.777	1.164	0.794	0.283	0.008	0.079	0.540	0.207	0.361	0.470	0.360
Luis Cruz	3.780	1.054	0.703	0.278	0.027	0.045	0.458	0.172	0.224	0.613	0.317
Matt Treanor	3.587	0.918	0.681	0.204	0.003	0.030	0.364	0.144	0.310	0.689	0.296
Pitchers Spot	3.647	0.581	0.469	0.097	0.004	0.012	0.188	0.112	0.159	1.357	0.180

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Justin Germano	5.963	4.104	1.863	7.111	0.514	96.125	3.882
Carlos Marmol	0.360	0.437	0.202	0.308	0.022	6.184	3.235
James Russell	0.391	0.320	0.130	0.447	0.039	6.357	3.839
Shawn Camp	0.608	0.458	0.167	0.695	0.043	9.652	3.436
Jairo Asencio	0.273	0.219	0.103	0.305	0.024	4.477	3.883
Manny Corpas	0.227	0.160	0.070	0.261	0.017	3.629	3.703
Scott Maine	0.540	0.557	0.239	0.554	0.049	9.078	3.641
Casey Coleman	0.278	0.235	0.114	0.320	0.031	4.657	4.210
Dodgers
Joe Blanton	6.633	5.589	1.405	6.838	0.473	101.687	3.077
Kenley Jansen	0.461	0.779	0.114	0.284	0.023	7.164	1.209
Brandon League	0.383	0.331	0.090	0.370	0.016	5.849	2.717
Javy Guerra	0.572	0.517	0.189	0.553	0.029	9.051	3.035
Randy Choate	0.238	0.279	0.066	0.194	0.010	3.696	2.258
Ronald Belisario	0.143	0.141	0.039	0.135	0.008	2.229	2.769
Shawn Tolleson	0.534	0.511	0.180	0.533	0.049	8.569	3.496
Jamey Wright	0.296	0.271	0.115	0.287	0.014	4.780	3.156

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 4th - Cubs vs Dodgers Simulation Box Scores

                  |    Wins      Losses       RS           RA
  Dodgers +--------------------------------------------------
                  |    75030     24970     443828     239414

  Vegas: ML    Dodgers -290, Cubs +260  or 73.33% WE for the Dodgers
              Runs  Over 6-1/2 -110, Under 6-1/2 -110

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
David DeJesus	4.192	1.021	0.763	0.178	0.029	0.050	0.203	0.193	0.313	1.248	0.283
Starlin Castro	4.209	1.210	0.909	0.212	0.026	0.063	0.280	0.173	0.159	0.898	0.311
Anthony Rizzo	4.066	0.972	0.720	0.163	0.005	0.084	0.326	0.126	0.259	1.120	0.279
Alfonso Soriano	4.003	0.953	0.559	0.262	0.004	0.128	0.431	0.129	0.231	1.234	0.295
Bryan LaHair	3.859	0.786	0.596	0.110	0.003	0.078	0.303	0.105	0.278	1.611	0.249
Steve Clevenger	3.807	0.827	0.659	0.151	0.002	0.016	0.195	0.102	0.202	1.157	0.239
Darwin Barney	3.709	1.025	0.704	0.269	0.014	0.038	0.264	0.114	0.174	0.620	0.306
Luis Valbuena	3.576	0.777	0.563	0.160	0.004	0.049	0.246	0.094	0.195	1.067	0.251
Pitchers Spot	3.548	0.408	0.322	0.076	0.001	0.009	0.110	0.067	0.130	1.876	0.135
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.215	1.283	0.876	0.241	0.052	0.114	0.393	0.408	0.399	0.523	0.364
Mark Ellis	4.149	1.206	0.861	0.247	0.023	0.075	0.466	0.276	0.333	0.634	0.335
Matt Kemp	4.069	1.365	0.896	0.274	0.032	0.162	0.638	0.299	0.360	0.759	0.400
Andre Ethier	3.884	1.214	0.761	0.315	0.009	0.129	0.627	0.239	0.470	0.711	0.386
Hanley Ramirez	3.847	1.221	0.798	0.277	0.021	0.125	0.597	0.255	0.377	0.663	0.381
James Loney	3.749	1.158	0.790	0.279	0.008	0.081	0.551	0.215	0.380	0.459	0.364
Luis Cruz	3.754	1.052	0.697	0.280	0.028	0.048	0.467	0.183	0.240	0.594	0.321
A.J. Ellis	3.507	0.999	0.755	0.184	0.007	0.053	0.424	0.150	0.382	0.717	0.334
Pitchers Spot	3.626	0.582	0.470	0.097	0.004	0.012	0.191	0.115	0.168	1.321	0.183

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chris Volstad	5.785	3.916	1.966	7.074	0.556	94.542	4.115
Carlos Marmol	0.301	0.401	0.165	0.244	0.017	5.160	2.914
James Russell	0.382	0.328	0.124	0.433	0.037	6.212	3.725
Shawn Camp	0.614	0.467	0.175	0.714	0.046	9.826	3.509
Jairo Asencio	0.287	0.225	0.124	0.327	0.025	4.799	4.076
Manny Corpas	0.239	0.164	0.087	0.286	0.020	3.920	3.989
Scott Maine	0.589	0.600	0.315	0.618	0.058	10.209	4.061
Casey Coleman	0.329	0.279	0.151	0.384	0.039	5.615	4.432
Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw	6.987	8.345	1.274	5.965	0.388	106.058	2.080
Kenley Jansen	0.470	0.790	0.118	0.291	0.023	7.322	1.245
Brandon League	0.369	0.317	0.089	0.363	0.016	5.660	2.766
Javy Guerra	0.543	0.492	0.180	0.531	0.029	8.618	3.064
Randy Choate	0.227	0.264	0.063	0.188	0.010	3.531	2.272
Ronald Belisario	0.135	0.130	0.035	0.126	0.007	2.089	2.782
Shawn Tolleson	0.375	0.361	0.123	0.372	0.035	6.005	3.472
Jamey Wright	0.145	0.133	0.058	0.142	0.007	2.358	3.223

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tale of The Tape Pitching Matchups

8/3 Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 100 Most Likely Scores

100,000 Games Simulated

Rank	Winner	CHN	LAN	Occurences		Rank	Winner	CHN	LAN	Occurences
1	LAN	1	2	5462		51	CHN	7	2	510
2	LAN	2	3	5198		52	LAN	3	8	485
3	LAN	3	4	3854		53	CHN	7	1	482
4	LAN	0	1	3764		54	CHN	7	4	474
5	LAN	1	3	3103		55	LAN	0	8	455
6	CHN	2	1	3050		56	CHN	6	0	449
7	LAN	0	2	2921		57	LAN	5	7	441
8	CHN	3	2	2813		58	CHN	7	5	396
9	LAN	2	4	2540		59	LAN	1	9	394
10	LAN	0	3	2510		60	LAN	2	9	377
11	LAN	1	4	2484		61	LAN	0	9	340
12	LAN	4	5	2413		62	LAN	4	8	339
13	CHN	3	1	2119		63	CHN	8	2	320
14	CHN	4	3	2030		64	CHN	7	6	309
15	CHN	4	2	1939		65	CHN	8	3	306
16	CHN	1	0	1926		66	LAN	7	8	296
17	LAN	2	5	1857		67	LAN	3	9	289
18	LAN	0	4	1855		68	CHN	7	0	289
19	LAN	1	5	1755		69	CHN	8	1	289
20	CHN	2	0	1630		70	LAN	1	10	267
21	LAN	3	5	1579		71	LAN	2	10	265
22	CHN	4	1	1540		72	CHN	8	4	262
23	LAN	0	5	1443		73	LAN	5	8	257
24	CHN	3	0	1342		74	LAN	3	10	230
25	CHN	5	4	1305		75	CHN	8	5	218
26	LAN	5	6	1296		76	LAN	4	9	215
27	CHN	5	2	1288		77	LAN	0	10	214
28	LAN	1	6	1251		78	CHN	8	0	199
29	CHN	5	3	1215		79	LAN	5	9	194
30	LAN	2	6	1195		80	LAN	2	11	184
31	LAN	3	6	1105		81	LAN	6	8	183
32	CHN	5	1	1067		82	CHN	8	7	177
33	LAN	0	6	1004		83	CHN	8	6	176
34	CHN	4	0	922		84	CHN	9	2	175
35	LAN	4	6	896		85	CHN	9	1	173
36	LAN	1	7	864		86	CHN	9	3	172
37	LAN	2	7	841		87	CHN	9	4	170
38	CHN	6	2	823		88	LAN	1	11	152
39	CHN	6	3	804		89	LAN	3	11	144
40	CHN	6	4	744		90	LAN	4	10	139
41	LAN	0	7	719		91	LAN	6	9	130
42	LAN	3	7	716		92	LAN	0	11	126
43	CHN	6	1	711		93	CHN	9	5	121
44	CHN	5	0	696		94	CHN	10	2	119
45	CHN	6	5	690		95	LAN	2	12	113
46	LAN	4	7	607		96	LAN	1	12	111
47	LAN	6	7	601		97	LAN	5	10	111
48	LAN	1	8	584		98	LAN	8	9	109
49	LAN	2	8	573		99	LAN	4	11	108
50	CHN	7	3	526		100	CHN	9	6	106

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MLB Depth Charts
Today's Starting Lineups - Baseball Press

August 3rd - Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Box Score

                  |    Wins  Losses      RS        RA
  Dodgers +------------------------------------------
                  |   63283  36717  373152  286450

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
David DeJesus	4.217	1.152	0.786	0.260	0.037	0.069	0.263	0.236	0.424	0.966	0.329
Starlin Castro	4.309	1.206	0.924	0.187	0.030	0.066	0.309	0.190	0.153	0.979	0.302
Anthony Rizzo	4.100	1.090	0.731	0.238	0.006	0.115	0.421	0.155	0.345	0.879	0.323
Alfonso Soriano	4.103	0.942	0.572	0.231	0.005	0.134	0.457	0.145	0.222	1.338	0.285
Bryan LaHair	3.886	0.942	0.668	0.164	0.004	0.105	0.392	0.141	0.370	1.270	0.302
Steve Clevenger	3.861	0.947	0.702	0.222	0.003	0.019	0.253	0.122	0.269	0.911	0.277
Darwin Barney	3.816	1.032	0.741	0.237	0.015	0.039	0.294	0.122	0.171	0.682	0.297
Luis Valbuena	3.650	0.864	0.571	0.224	0.005	0.065	0.313	0.111	0.252	0.863	0.283
Pitchers Spot	3.659	0.391	0.316	0.064	0.001	0.009	0.116	0.072	0.128	2.064	0.126
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.187	1.197	0.829	0.226	0.051	0.091	0.316	0.360	0.358	0.714	0.339
Mark Ellis	4.116	1.112	0.799	0.231	0.021	0.061	0.389	0.239	0.297	0.847	0.311
Matt Kemp	4.042	1.236	0.820	0.250	0.031	0.135	0.532	0.255	0.326	1.011	0.365
Andre Ethier	3.867	1.118	0.710	0.290	0.009	0.108	0.527	0.212	0.429	0.924	0.357
Hanley Ramirez	3.826	1.120	0.739	0.257	0.020	0.104	0.499	0.227	0.339	0.883	0.351
James Loney	3.719	1.101	0.757	0.268	0.008	0.068	0.474	0.187	0.347	0.588	0.346
Luis Cruz	3.712	0.972	0.649	0.257	0.026	0.039	0.403	0.152	0.217	0.777	0.300
A.J. Ellis	3.470	0.905	0.673	0.174	0.008	0.050	0.370	0.125	0.354	0.933	0.310
Pitchers Spot	3.580	0.469	0.379	0.076	0.003	0.010	0.150	0.090	0.150	1.736	0.152

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jeff Samardzija	6.236	6.181	1.804	6.551	0.457	100.009	3.037
Carlos Marmol	0.388	0.511	0.216	0.316	0.022	6.663	2.970
James Russell	0.410	0.348	0.134	0.469	0.041	6.686	3.782
Shawn Camp	0.614	0.461	0.174	0.715	0.047	9.816	3.539
Jairo Asencio	0.255	0.200	0.111	0.293	0.024	4.273	4.173
Manny Corpas	0.204	0.138	0.075	0.242	0.017	3.336	3.999
Scott Maine	0.416	0.423	0.222	0.441	0.040	7.230	4.025
Casey Coleman	0.175	0.148	0.081	0.204	0.020	2.991	4.381
Dodgers
Chad Billingsley	6.634	7.093	1.549	6.191	0.470	102.796	2.682
Kenley Jansen	0.475	0.802	0.116	0.294	0.025	7.384	1.237
Brandon League	0.411	0.352	0.098	0.402	0.017	6.297	2.739
Javy Guerra	0.598	0.535	0.194	0.577	0.031	9.431	3.057
Randy Choate	0.242	0.285	0.068	0.199	0.011	3.761	2.256
Ronald Belisario	0.135	0.132	0.034	0.127	0.007	2.093	2.725
Shawn Tolleson	0.522	0.506	0.173	0.519	0.050	8.368	3.486
Jamey Wright	0.268	0.247	0.104	0.258	0.012	4.333	3.126

May 6th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	BOS	Tommy Hunter vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	58.42%	55.96%	TBD
FLA	SD	Ricky Nolasco vs Joe Wieland	FLA	54.23%	56.80%	TBD
NYA	KC	Phil Hughes vs Luke Hochevar	NYA	53.60%	51.32%	TBD
OAK	TB	Tom Milone vs Matt Moore	TB	60.86%	60.40%	TBD
TEX	CLE	Yu Darvish vs Ubaldo Jimenez	TEX	61.69%	56.36%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Drew Hutchison vs Jerome Williams	LAA	55.65%	60.15%	TBD
CHA	DET	Dylan Axelrod vs Rick Porcello	DET	58.25%	62.22%	TBD
ARI	NYN	Trevor Cahill vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	50.62%	53.86%	TBD
CIN	PIT	Mat Latos vs Charlie Morton	CIN	54.02%	54.94%	TBD
PHI	WAS	Cole Hamels vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	52.49%	51.29%	TBD
STL	HOU	Adam Wainwright vs J.A. Happ	STL	58.93%	63.32%	TBD
LAN	CHN	Aaron Harang vs Travis Wood	LAN	52.04%	52.11%	TBD
ATL	COL	Brandon Beachy vs Juan Nicasio	ATL	53.60%	NA	TBD
MIL	SF	Shaun Marcum vs Matt Cain	SF	57.89%	54.34%	TBD
MIN	SEA	Nick Blackburn vs Hector Noesi	SEA	54.65%	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 6.89%

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MLB Depth Charts

Cinco de Mayo Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	BOS	Jason Hammel vs Aaron Cook	BOS	TBD	52.57%	TBD
FLA	SD	Mark Buehrle vs Clayton Richard	FLA	TBD	56.27%	TBD
NYA	KC	Hiroki Kuroda vs Felipe Paulino	NYA	TBD	54.14%	TBD
OAK	TB	Bartolo Colon vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	TBD	58.57%	TBD
TEX	CLE	Derek Holland vs Derek Lowe	TEX	TBD	56.26%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Kyle Drabek vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	TBD	63.13%	TBD
CHA	DET	Gavin Floyd vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	61.60%	TBD
LAN	CHN	Chris Capuano vs Chris Volstad	LAN	TBD	50.72%	TBD
PHI	WAS	Vance Worley vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	TBD	52.07%	TBD
ARI	NYN	Pat Corbin vs Johan Santana	NYN	TBD	60.68%	TBD
MIL	SF	Randy Wolf vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	55.72%	TBD
CIN	PIT	Mike Leake vs James McDonald	PIT	TBD	50.08%	TBD
STL	HOU	Jaime Garcia vs Bud Norris	STL	TBD	61.22%	TBD
ATL	COL	Mike Minor vs Jamie Moyer	COL	TBD	NA	TBD
MIN	SEA	Jason Marquis vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 8.13%

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MLB Depth Charts

May 4th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	BOS	Wei-Yin Chen vs Jon Lester	BOS	61.32%	57.29%	TBD
FLA	SD	Josh Johnson vs Anthony Bass	FLA	53.81%	59.76%	TBD
NYA	KC	C.C. Sabathia vs Bruce Chen	NYA	61.17%	59.67%	TBD
OAK	TB	Tyson Ross vs David Price	TB	65.93%	66.27%	TBD
TEX	CLE	Colby Lewis vs Jeanmar Gomez	TEX	58.59%	53.59%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Henderson Alvarez vs Ervin Santana	LAA	55.26%	58.83%	TBD
LAN	CHN	Chad Billingsley vs Paul Maholm	LAN	56.99%	50.79%	TBD
CHA	DET	Jake Peavy vs Drew Smyly	DET	50.25%	54.84%	TBD
CIN	PIT	Johnny Cueto vs Kevin Correia	CIN	57.72%	57.22%	TBD
PHI	WAS	Kyle Kendrick vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	65.75%	61.98%	TBD
ARI	NYN	Wade Miley vs Dillon Gee	ARI	50.74%	49.26%	TBD
STL	HOU	Kyle Lohse vs Lucas Harrell	STL	58.42%	61.15%	TBD
ATL	COL	Tim Hudson vs Guillermo Moscoso	ATL	51.81%	49.08%	TBD
MIN	SEA	Carl Pavano vs Jason Vargas	SEA	56.62%	49.42%	TBD
MIL	SF	Zach Greinke vs Tim Lincecum	SF	50.62%	51.64%	TBD

Current ROI: 6.09%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

May 4th Simulations

29 So Devine ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cubs	Dodgers	C.Zambrano vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	52.72%	47.78%	CHN 5-1
Orioles	Royals	J.Arrieta vs K.Davies	Orioles	50.62%	57.96%	BAL 3-2
Indians	Athletics	J.Tomlin vs T.Cahill	Athletics	58.42%	64.25%	OAK 3-1
Marlins	Cardinals	J.Vazquez vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	63.57%	68.65%	FLA 8-7
Twins	White Sox	N.Blackburn vs J.Danks	White Sox	62.19%	63.40%	MIN 3-2
Rangers	Mariners	C.Wilson vs M.Pineda	Mariners	50.62%	46.64%	TEX 5-2
Yankees	Tigers	F.Garcia vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	51.81%	46.96%	DET 4-0
Astros	Reds	A.Rodriguez vs T.Wood	Reds	65.10%	69.98%	CIN 3-2
Brewers	Braves	M.Estrada vs T.Hanson	Braves	TBD	64.90%	ATL 8-3
Brewers	Braves	Z.Greinke vs T.Hudson	Braves	56.62%	58.98%	ATL 8-0
Nationals	Phillies	J.Marquis vs V.Worley	Phillies	59.60%	48.43%	PHI 7-4
Pirates	Padres	K.Correia vs C.Richard	Padres	57.54%	59.85%	PIT 7-4
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Morrow vs J.Niemann	Rays	53.60%	51.91%	TOR 3-2
Rockies	DBacks	J.Chacin vs B.Enright	Rockies	55.46%	58.97%	COL 6-4
Giants	Mets	T.Lincecum vs C.Capuano	Giants	56.80%	58.71%	SF 2-0
Angels	Red Sox	E.Santana vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	63.57%	62.54%	LAA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: -2.80%

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May 3rd Simulations

28 In A Row!!! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cubs	Dodgers	R.Dempster vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	59.18%	60.97%	CHN 4-1
Twins	White Sox	F.Liriano vs E.Jackson	White Sox	55.16%	55.70%	MIN 1-0
Brewers	Braves	M.Estrada vs T.Hanson	Braves	60.78%	65.21%	Ppd.
Rangers	Mariners	A.Ogando vs E.Bedard	Rangers	54.75%	54.40%	SEA 4-3
Nationals	Phillies	L.Hernandez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	68.75%	62.36%	PHI 4-1
Yankees	Tigers	C.Sabathia vs B.Penny	Yankees	61.39%	64.90%	DET 4-2
Giants	Mets	R.Vogelsong vs R.Dickey	Mets	54.13%	58.44%	SF 7-6
Orioles	Royals	B.Bergesen vs J.Francis	Royals	54.13%	47.41%	KC 6-5
Angels	Red Sox	D.Haren vs J.Lester	Red Sox	59.02%	60.32%	BOS 7-3
Blue Jays	Rays	J.Reyes vs W.Davis	Rays	61.69%	58.33%	TB 3-2
Indians	Athletics	F.Carmona vs T.Ross	Athletics	53.27%	55.76%	CLE 4-1
Astros	Reds	J.Happ vs M.Leake	Reds	63.24%	64.38%	HOU 10-4
Marlins	Cardinals	A.Sanchez vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	56.14%	56.10%	STL 7-5
Pirates	Padres	J.Karstens vs M.Latos	Padres	60.00%	61.67%	SD 6-5
Rockies	DBacks	J.de la Rosa vs J.Saunders	Rockies	54.55%	56.28%	ARI 4-3

Seasonal ROI: -1.19%

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May 2nd Simulations

Many Thanks to US Navy Seals ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cubs	Dodgers	J.Russell vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	65.22%	58.53%	LAN 5-2
Angels	Red Sox	J.Weaver vs C.Buchholz	Angels	50.62%	49.93%	BOS 9-5
Orioles	White Sox	J.Guthrie vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	50.86%	48.23%	CHA 6-2
Rangers	Athletics	D.Holland vs B.McCarthy	Athletics	51.81%	54.52%	OAK 5-4
Astros	Reds	J.Happ vs M.Leake	Reds	62.48%	64.42%	Ppd.
Pirates	Padres	J.McDonald vs A.Harang	Padres	59.10%	63.31%	PIT 4-3
Giants	Nationals	M.Bumgarner vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	50.62%	50.26%	WAS 2-0
Brewers	Braves	Y.Gallardo vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	57.17%	55.99%	ATL 6-2
Marlins	Cardinals	C.Volstad vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	61.69%	68.04%	FLA 6-5
Yankees	Tigers	B.Colon vs J.Verlander	Tigers	52.72%	50.50%	NYA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.05%

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April 24th Simulations

Dodgers Dogs In Rubber Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	H.Kuroda vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	54.55%	59.94%	LAN 7-3
White Sox	Tigers	J.Danks vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	54.55%	56.79%	DET 3-0
Rockies	Marlins	U.Jimenez vs J.Johnson	Marlins	57.63%	55.88%	FLA 6-3
DBacks	Mets	A.Galarraga vs J.Niese	Mets	57.98%	63.88%	NYN 8-4
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lackey vs M.Palmer	Red Sox	57.26%	58.82%	BOS 7-0
Nationals	Pirates	J.Marquis vs K.Correia	Pirates	55.56%	52.88%	WAS 6-3
Royals	Rangers	B.Chen vs C.Wilson	Rangers	67.21%	72.70%	TEX 8-7
Reds	Cardinals	S.LeCure vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	52.61%	53.04%	STL 3-0
Astros	Brewers	W.Rodriguez vs R.Wolf	Brewers	59.51%	51.21%	MIL 4-1
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Shields vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	56.52%	58.49%	TB 2-0
Phillies	Padres	R.Halladay vs W.LeBlanc	Phillies	65.28%	56.42%	PHI 3-1
Indians	Twins	C.Carrasco vs C.Pavano	Twins	54.55%	55.15%	MIN 4-3
Athletics	Mariners	B.Anderson vs D.Fister	Athletics	55.56%	53.99%	OAK 5-2
Braves	Giants	B.Beachy vs J.Sanchez	Giants	55.95%	65.58%	ATL 9-6
Yankees	Orioles	F.Garcia vs C.Tillman	Yankees	54.34%	50.70%	NYA 6-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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