April 12th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation

April 12th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum	Giants	62.55%	63.76%	SF 5-4
Skinny: Pretty good agreement between Vegas and Sim. Lincecum outclasses Billingsley and along with HFA is the difference maker.
Results: Game went according to the book as 9th most likely score hits.
Phillies	Nationals	J.Blanton vs L.Hernandez	Phillies	54.13%	48.17%	WAS 7-4
Skinny: Even with R.Zimmerman out the Nationals have an even shot of winning this home game against Phillies worst starter.
Results: Big win for the simulator here as it nails this one.
Indians	Angels	F.Carmona vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.47%	LAA 2-0
Skinny: Decent pitching matchup with edge to Angels. Simulator thinks Angels are over bet a little.
Results: Haren brings the Indians back down to reality.
Cubs	Astros	J.Russell vs B.Myers	Astros	53.49%	54.43%	HOU 11-2
Skinny: Cubs put a replacement level pitcher out there on the road against one of the Astros best pitchers. Home field advantage is the difference between being favored or a dog. Pennies on the Astros.
Results: Astros eat up replacement level pitcher.
Reds	Padres	S.LeCure vs C.Richard	Padres	53.05%	54.66%	CIN 8-2
Skinny: Should be a pretty close, low scoring game (7 runs?). Padres favored by their HFA margin. Pennies on the Padres.
Results: Well pitched low scoring game just like the sim said, until the Padres bullpen bombs in extra frames.
Athletics	White Sox	T.Cahill vs E.Jackson	White Sox	54.55%	50.12%	CHA 6-5
Skinny: Will the clock strike midnight on Edwin Jackson today? Simulator says to bet on it, as it's not ready to jump completely on his bandwagon yet.
Results: Athletics were able to get to Edwin Jackson but the bullpen couldn't hold on to a slim lead.
Rays	Red Sox	D.Price vs J.Lester	Red Sox	62.96%	57.44%	TB 3-2
Skinny: The starting pitching matchup is pretty even. HFA and offense give the Red Sox a decent sized edge, but the Rays defense cuts into that edge a little. Too much Red Sox love in the ML.
Results: Nice payout for a David Price pitched game, even if it was on the road in Boston against J.Lester.
Rangers	Tigers	C.Wilson vs B.Penny	Rangers	55.95%	56.91%	DET 5-4
Skinny: A very favorable pitching matchup for the Rangers. A pretty fair line. Pennies on the Rangers.
Results: Even game. Texas was let down by their bullpen and losing Josh Hamilton to injury early in the game didn't help matters.
Marlins	Braves	C.Volstad vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.83%	60.69%	TBD
Skinny: A likely win for the Braves but slightly over bet. Take the underdog and hope for the best.
Results: C.Volstad dug himself a hole early and Tommy Hanson was just too tough.
Royals	Twins	J.Francis vs B.Duensing	Twins	58.33%	61.60%	MIN 4-3
Skinny: Never fun to take a pitcher like Duensing at -140 (ML) but in this case you pretty much have to. Prepare to sweat it out.
Results: Twins fans definitely had to sweat this one out.
Orioles	Yankees	C.Tillman vs A.Burnett	Yankees	62.96%	59.35%	Rained out.
Skinny: You would've made a lot of money betting the Orioles every game so far. Let's see if the trend continues against the Yankees. Sim says to ride the horse again.
Results:
Rockies	Mets	E.Rogers vs J.Niese	Mets	52.38%	55.76%	Rained out.
Skinny: A good value play on the Mets here. Just be prepared to sweat this one out as it should be a close game.
Results:
Brewers	Pirates	S.Marcum vs K.Correia	Brewers	53.27%	45.89%	TBD
Skinny: Simulator showing some love for the 5-5 Pirates here. I would probably split the difference here making a moderate wager on Pirates.
Results: Rained out.
Cardinals	Diamondbacks	C.Carpenter vs A.Galarraga	Cardinals	57.63%	60.99%	ARI 13-8
Skinny: Big pitching mismatch here. Only big worry is HFA for the Diamondbacks. Sim still says to make a solid wager here on the Cardinals.
Results: Definitely did not expect to see the Diamondbacks shell Carpenter.

Seasonal ROI: 0.98%

MLB Scoreboard
Roster help to MLB Depthcharts
The table of likely game scores is here.

Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulated Preview

The 2011 season begins for the Dodgers on March 31st at home in a game against the defending champions the San Francisco Giants. The starters for the game have already been announced. The Giants will start their long haired hippy, Tim Lincecum - while the Dodgers will counter with their clean cut and wholesome ace Clayton Kershaw, in what will be a classic matchup of Evil vs Good. I have gone ahead and simulated this game, making a guess at the starting lineups 100K times. Below are the lineups used and the results.

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Giants			Dodgers
Andres Torres	CF		Rafael Furcal	SS
Freddy Sanchez	2B		Andre Ethier	RF
Aubrey Huff	1B		Matt Kemp	CF
Buster Posey	C		James Loney	1B
Pat Burrell	LF		Juan Uribe	2B
Miguel Tejada	SS		Jay Gibbons	LF
Cody Ross	RF		Casey Blake	3B
Pablo Sandoval	3B		Rod Barajas	C
Tim Lincecum	SP		Clayton Kershaw	SP

... And now the results

Away	Home			Favorite	Win Prob	Over/Under
SF	LAN	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	LAN	53.972	5.81217

So we see that the Dodgers will likely be a slight favorite to win on opening day, but a win probability of just under 54% is pretty much a toss up game.

Here is the hitters boxscore

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Andres Torres	4.27	1.006	0.576	0.317	0.025	0.088	0.282	0.337	1.287	0.296	0.317
Freddy Sanchez	4.218	1.16	0.772	0.309	0.01	0.069	0.301	0.281	1.002	0.318	0.347
Aubrey Huff	4.065	1.028	0.696	0.2	0.012	0.12	0.377	0.378	0.957	0.315	0.304
Buster Posey	4.054	0.997	0.694	0.236	0.004	0.063	0.344	0.304	1.043	0.29	0.317
Pat Burrell	3.824	0.881	0.525	0.226	0.002	0.128	0.427	0.433	1.29	0.309	0.313
Miguel Tejada	3.941	1.025	0.713	0.241	0.006	0.066	0.348	0.197	0.705	0.295	0.303
Cody Ross	3.738	0.862	0.557	0.206	0.005	0.095	0.346	0.288	1.165	0.287	0.31
Pablo Sandoval	3.467	0.718	0.465	0.18	0.006	0.067	0.289	0.422	1.375	0.279	0.321
Tim Lincecum	3.657	0.335	0.265	0.059	0.001	0.009	0.1	0.147	2.201	0.115	0.225
Rafael Furcal	4.043	1.025	0.652	0.264	0.037	0.072	0.24	0.347	0.867	0.31	0.307
Andre Ethier	3.87	0.971	0.568	0.249	0.011	0.144	0.376	0.448	1.021	0.333	0.306
Matt Kemp	3.95	0.947	0.605	0.202	0.03	0.11	0.37	0.272	1.205	0.297	0.318
James Loney	3.784	0.969	0.6	0.27	0.015	0.083	0.381	0.395	0.78	0.322	0.303
Juan Uribe	3.771	0.892	0.544	0.212	0.019	0.117	0.421	0.249	0.862	0.296	0.278
Jay Gibbons	3.578	0.816	0.473	0.2	0.007	0.137	0.4	0.363	0.838	0.308	0.261
Casey Blake	3.508	0.808	0.504	0.206	0.009	0.089	0.325	0.257	1.031	0.287	0.301
Rod Barajas	3.419	0.745	0.478	0.176	0.005	0.086	0.307	0.224	0.811	0.271	0.261
Clayton Kershaw	3.424	0.346	0.279	0.055	0.002	0.01	0.091	0.125	1.857	0.122	0.216

Pitchers Boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Tim Lincecum	6.488	7.057	1.889	5.41	0.621	100.544	3.143
Brian Wilson	0.474	0.582	0.124	0.338	0.029	7.2	2.319
Sergio Romo	0.439	0.485	0.101	0.359	0.041	6.651	2.891
Ramon Ramirez	0.625	0.452	0.212	0.609	0.066	9.751	4.147
Santiago Casilla	0.288	0.264	0.116	0.243	0.023	4.557	3.606
Chris Ray	0.38	0.276	0.159	0.376	0.047	6.104	4.59
Guillermo Mota	0.185	0.144	0.071	0.175	0.019	2.928	4.167
Denny Bautista	0.013	0.013	0.007	0.01	0.002	0.208	4.38
Clayton Kershaw	6.524	7.602	1.939	5.644	0.469	102.81	2.696
Johnathan Broxton	0.482	0.72	0.155	0.318	0.031	7.593	2.021
HongZhi Kuo	0.508	0.687	0.132	0.375	0.023	7.85	1.854
Kenley Jansen	0.732	0.959	0.245	0.555	0.042	11.602	2.339
Matt Guerrier	0.345	0.279	0.098	0.348	0.038	5.375	3.875
Vicente Padilla	0.621	0.622	0.159	0.602	0.077	9.695	3.567
Ron Mahay	0.161	0.15	0.054	0.162	0.022	2.587	4.131
Blake Hawksworth	0.007	0.007	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.118	3.974