April 26th Simulations

Hook, Line and Sinker Ball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Kershaw vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	57.08%	51.13%	FLA 4-2
Rockies	Cubs	J.delaRosa vs J.Russell	Rockies	57.63%	52.85%	COL 4-3
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs A.Harang	Braves	52.38%	40.41%	ATL 8-2
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.71%	56.84%	Ppd.
Royals	Indians	L.Hochevar vs J.Masterson	Indians	59.84%	63.99%	CLE 9-4
Phillies	DBacks	R.Oswalt vs D.Hudson	Phillies	54.55%	51.95%	ARI 7-5
Mets	Nationals	C.Young vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	53.70%	56.06%	NYN 6-4
Athletics	Angels	B.McCarthy vs T.Chatwood	Athletics	53.92%	57.70%	LAA 8-3
White Sox	Yankees	G.Floyd vs I.Nova	Yankees	55.56%	62.48%	CHA 3-2
Mariners	Tigers	F.Hernandez vs P.Coke	Mariners	53.05%	51.86%	SEA 7-3
Cardinals	Astros	J.Garcia vs B.Norris	Cardinals	56.33%	61.14%	HOU 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	C.Buchholz vs Z.Britton	Orioles	55.75%	42.48%	BAL 4-1
Giants	Pirates	M.Cain vs C.Morton	Giants	57.08%	57.46%	SF 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs M.Estrada	Brewers	52.83%	44.46%	MIL 3-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Litsch vs M.Harrison	Rangers	62.41%	60.01%	TOR 10-3

Seasonal ROI: -0.08%

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts

April 21st Simulations

This Bud's For Selig ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	J.Jurrjens vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.33%	58.87%	LAN 5-3
Twins	Orioles	S.Baker vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	56.52%	63.85%	MIN 3-1
Nationals	Cardinals	T.Gorzelanny vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	61.54%	63.60%	STL 5-0
Diamondbacks	Reds	D.Hudson vs M.Leake	Reds	55.16%	58.29%	CIN 7-4
Athletics	Mariners	B.McCarthy vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	58.16%	55.17%	SEA 1-0
Red Sox	Angels	J.Beckett vs T.Chatwood	Red Sox	61.09%	60.21%	BOS 4-2
Indians	Royals	J.Tomlin vs S.O'Sullivan	Indians	51.69%	49.69%	KC 3-2
Pirates	Marlins	J.McDonald vs C.Volstad	Marlins	55.56%	53.35%	FLA 9-5
Phillies	Padres	R.Oswalt vs M.Latos	Phillies	51.98%	48.66%	PHI 3-0
White Sox	Rays	G.Floyd vs J.Niemann	White Sox	50.74%	54.47%	CHA 9-2
Astros	Mets	J.Happ vs C.Capuano	Mets	55.56%	60.17%	NYN 9-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.91%

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts

Clayton And Chad, The Rest Are Bad!

April 16th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	K.McClellan vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	58.85%	61.55%	STL 9-2

Seasonal ROI: Less Than 0%

MLB Scoreboard
Roster help to MLB Depthcharts

Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulated Preview

The 2011 season begins for the Dodgers on March 31st at home in a game against the defending champions the San Francisco Giants. The starters for the game have already been announced. The Giants will start their long haired hippy, Tim Lincecum - while the Dodgers will counter with their clean cut and wholesome ace Clayton Kershaw, in what will be a classic matchup of Evil vs Good. I have gone ahead and simulated this game, making a guess at the starting lineups 100K times. Below are the lineups used and the results.

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Giants			Dodgers
Andres Torres	CF		Rafael Furcal	SS
Freddy Sanchez	2B		Andre Ethier	RF
Aubrey Huff	1B		Matt Kemp	CF
Buster Posey	C		James Loney	1B
Pat Burrell	LF		Juan Uribe	2B
Miguel Tejada	SS		Jay Gibbons	LF
Cody Ross	RF		Casey Blake	3B
Pablo Sandoval	3B		Rod Barajas	C
Tim Lincecum	SP		Clayton Kershaw	SP

... And now the results

Away	Home			Favorite	Win Prob	Over/Under
SF	LAN	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	LAN	53.972	5.81217

So we see that the Dodgers will likely be a slight favorite to win on opening day, but a win probability of just under 54% is pretty much a toss up game.

Here is the hitters boxscore

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Andres Torres	4.27	1.006	0.576	0.317	0.025	0.088	0.282	0.337	1.287	0.296	0.317
Freddy Sanchez	4.218	1.16	0.772	0.309	0.01	0.069	0.301	0.281	1.002	0.318	0.347
Aubrey Huff	4.065	1.028	0.696	0.2	0.012	0.12	0.377	0.378	0.957	0.315	0.304
Buster Posey	4.054	0.997	0.694	0.236	0.004	0.063	0.344	0.304	1.043	0.29	0.317
Pat Burrell	3.824	0.881	0.525	0.226	0.002	0.128	0.427	0.433	1.29	0.309	0.313
Miguel Tejada	3.941	1.025	0.713	0.241	0.006	0.066	0.348	0.197	0.705	0.295	0.303
Cody Ross	3.738	0.862	0.557	0.206	0.005	0.095	0.346	0.288	1.165	0.287	0.31
Pablo Sandoval	3.467	0.718	0.465	0.18	0.006	0.067	0.289	0.422	1.375	0.279	0.321
Tim Lincecum	3.657	0.335	0.265	0.059	0.001	0.009	0.1	0.147	2.201	0.115	0.225
Rafael Furcal	4.043	1.025	0.652	0.264	0.037	0.072	0.24	0.347	0.867	0.31	0.307
Andre Ethier	3.87	0.971	0.568	0.249	0.011	0.144	0.376	0.448	1.021	0.333	0.306
Matt Kemp	3.95	0.947	0.605	0.202	0.03	0.11	0.37	0.272	1.205	0.297	0.318
James Loney	3.784	0.969	0.6	0.27	0.015	0.083	0.381	0.395	0.78	0.322	0.303
Juan Uribe	3.771	0.892	0.544	0.212	0.019	0.117	0.421	0.249	0.862	0.296	0.278
Jay Gibbons	3.578	0.816	0.473	0.2	0.007	0.137	0.4	0.363	0.838	0.308	0.261
Casey Blake	3.508	0.808	0.504	0.206	0.009	0.089	0.325	0.257	1.031	0.287	0.301
Rod Barajas	3.419	0.745	0.478	0.176	0.005	0.086	0.307	0.224	0.811	0.271	0.261
Clayton Kershaw	3.424	0.346	0.279	0.055	0.002	0.01	0.091	0.125	1.857	0.122	0.216

Pitchers Boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Tim Lincecum	6.488	7.057	1.889	5.41	0.621	100.544	3.143
Brian Wilson	0.474	0.582	0.124	0.338	0.029	7.2	2.319
Sergio Romo	0.439	0.485	0.101	0.359	0.041	6.651	2.891
Ramon Ramirez	0.625	0.452	0.212	0.609	0.066	9.751	4.147
Santiago Casilla	0.288	0.264	0.116	0.243	0.023	4.557	3.606
Chris Ray	0.38	0.276	0.159	0.376	0.047	6.104	4.59
Guillermo Mota	0.185	0.144	0.071	0.175	0.019	2.928	4.167
Denny Bautista	0.013	0.013	0.007	0.01	0.002	0.208	4.38
Clayton Kershaw	6.524	7.602	1.939	5.644	0.469	102.81	2.696
Johnathan Broxton	0.482	0.72	0.155	0.318	0.031	7.593	2.021
HongZhi Kuo	0.508	0.687	0.132	0.375	0.023	7.85	1.854
Kenley Jansen	0.732	0.959	0.245	0.555	0.042	11.602	2.339
Matt Guerrier	0.345	0.279	0.098	0.348	0.038	5.375	3.875
Vicente Padilla	0.621	0.622	0.159	0.602	0.077	9.695	3.567
Ron Mahay	0.161	0.15	0.054	0.162	0.022	2.587	4.131
Blake Hawksworth	0.007	0.007	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.118	3.974