June 12th Simulations

Leaving Colorado ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	R.DeLaRosa vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	66.00%	69.12%	LAN 10-8
KC	LAA	Vin Mazzaro vs Tyler Chatwood	LAA	TBD	62.118	KC 9-0
ARI	FLA	Daniel Hudson vs Brad Hand	ARI	TBD	55.348	ARI 5-1
CHN	PHI	Doug Davis vs Roy Oswalt	PHI	TBD	68.04	PHI 4-3
WAS	SD	Jordan Zimmerman vs Tim Stauffer	SD	TBD	55.915	WAS 2-0
ATL	HOU	Tommy Hanson vs Brett Myers	ATL	TBD	53.221	ATL 4-1
OAK	CHA	Guillermo Moscoso vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	60.17	CHA 5-4
TB	BAL	Wade Davis vs Brian Matusz	BAL	TBD	57.501	TB 9-6
TEX	MIN	Matt Harrison vs Francisco Liriano	TEX	TBD	55.03%	MIN 6-1
BOS	TOR	Jon Lester vs Kyle Drabek	BOS	TBD	62.08%	BOS 14-1
STL	MIL	Jake Westbrook vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	TBD	51.30%	MIL 4-3
SEA	DET	Felx Hernandez vs Rick Porcello	SEA	TBD	51.76%	SEA 7-3
CIN	SF	Edinson Volquez vs Jonathan Sanchez	SF	TBD	55.80%	SF 4-2
NYN	PIT	Chris Capuano vs Kevin Correia	NYN	TBD	51.137	NYN 7-0
CLE	NYA	Josh Tomlin vs Freddy Garcia	NYA	TBD	63.262	NYA 9-1

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Diamondbacks vs Rockies, Opening Day Simulation

Here is a simulation of the Diamondbacks and Rockies opening day game. Both teams starting pitchers for their first game of the season are locks. I have used starting lineups from the wonderful site MLBDepthCharts.Com. Below are the box scores from the simulation along with the results.

Lineups

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Stephen Drew	SS		Dexter Fowler	CF
Justin Upton	RF		Seth Smith	RF
Kelly Johnson	2B		Carlos Gonzalez	LF
Chris Young	CF		Troy Tulowitzki	SS
Miguel Montero	C		Todd Helton	1B
Xavier Nady	LF		Ian Stewart	3B
Melvin Mora	3B		Jose Lopez	2B
Juan Miranda	1B		Chris Iannetta	C
Ian Kennedy	P		Ubaldo Jimenez	P

... And now the results!

Away	Home			Favorite	Win/Prob
ARI	COL	Ian Kennedy	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	71.79%

It looks like the Rockies will be big favorites to win their opening day game against the Diamondbacks. This is not a big surprise as the Rockies are the stronger of the two teams, the starting pitching matchup is clearly not even and the game is being played in Denver. Besides Putz, the Diamondbacks bullpen gets hammered.

Here is the hitter(s) boxscores

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Stephen Drew	4.337	1.207	0.722	0.309	0.095	0.081	0.347	0.435	1.07	0.346
Justin Upton	4.196	1.176	0.771	0.266	0.017	0.123	0.433	0.392	1.401	0.343
Kelly Johnson	4.117	1.109	0.65	0.303	0.047	0.109	0.454	0.45	1.208	0.344
Chris Young	4.046	1.011	0.61	0.267	0.018	0.116	0.497	0.374	1.237	0.318
Miguel Montero	3.962	1.052	0.667	0.287	0.02	0.077	0.45	0.4	1.105	0.327
Xavier Nady	3.924	1.069	0.704	0.248	0.006	0.111	0.48	0.284	1.123	0.326
Melvin Mora	3.818	1.123	0.748	0.268	0.023	0.084	0.439	0.277	0.874	0.343
Juan Miranda	3.79	1.148	0.791	0.261	0.014	0.082	0.447	0.235	0.647	0.344
Ian Kennedy	3.755	0.427	0.346	0.068	0.003	0.01	0.144	0.143	2.15	0.134
Dexter Fowler	4.312	1.429	0.835	0.357	0.129	0.107	0.472	0.469	0.93	0.406
Seth Smith	4.195	1.373	0.772	0.345	0.044	0.212	0.679	0.501	0.884	0.419
Carlos Gonzalez	4.188	1.551	0.859	0.343	0.088	0.261	0.866	0.44	0.985	0.467
Troy Tulowitzki	4.114	1.437	0.806	0.361	0.057	0.213	0.855	0.357	0.767	0.433
Todd Helton	3.812	1.367	0.835	0.35	0.027	0.155	0.754	0.605	0.733	0.445
Ian Stewart	3.864	1.235	0.698	0.326	0.037	0.175	0.76	0.436	0.907	0.406
Jose Lopez	3.946	1.269	0.819	0.317	0.02	0.113	0.634	0.197	0.554	0.368
Chris Iannetta	3.656	1.099	0.685	0.279	0.016	0.119	0.563	0.382	0.775	0.37
Ubaldo Jimenez	3.784	0.593	0.474	0.098	0.006	0.015	0.216	0.162	1.694	0.178

And the pitchers boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Ubaldo Jimenez	6.201	7.387	2.245	6.195	0.435	102.776	2.816
Huston Street	0.411	0.507	0.076	0.399	0.036	6.429	2.416
Matt Belisle	0.39	0.442	0.062	0.404	0.039	6.07	2.718
Rafael Betancourt	0.728	1.073	0.135	0.674	0.102	11.565	2.634
Matt Lindstrom	0.38	0.361	0.128	0.441	0.045	6.3	3.857
Matt Reynolds	0.77	0.781	0.254	0.917	0.104	12.898	3.918
Matt Daley	0.253	0.261	0.088	0.287	0.032	4.219	3.834
Franklin Morales	0.004	0.004	0.002	0.005	0.001	0.068	4.607
Ian Kennedy	5.214	5.088	2.034	7.062	0.839	91.367	4.51
J.J. Putz	0.326	0.411	0.099	0.351	0.03	5.424	2.796
Juan Gutierrez	0.425	0.407	0.158	0.57	0.076	7.372	4.722
David Hernandez	0.724	0.716	0.354	0.976	0.138	13.056	5.172
Esmerling Vasquez	0.476	0.484	0.312	0.61	0.07	8.909	5.058
Aaron Heilman	0.813	0.742	0.368	1.132	0.145	14.522	5.049
Joe Paterson	0.449	0.368	0.217	0.629	0.069	8.032	4.999
Mike Hampton	0.017	0.013	0.007	0.024	0.002	0.303	4.634