Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/21

August 24th - Marlins vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-------------------------------------------------------
                   |    67088    32912        431383   300279

  Vegas Odds:
             Money Line:  Dodgers -210/+200 (or Dodgers have a 67.21% chance of winning)
             Run Total:   Over 7 -107, Under 7 +103

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Bryan Petersen	4.270	1.052	0.742	0.210	0.014	0.085	0.257	0.264	0.371	1.185	0.298
Justin Ruggiano	4.236	1.066	0.713	0.261	0.012	0.080	0.324	0.228	0.228	1.228	0.292
Jose Reyes	4.107	1.254	0.915	0.248	0.037	0.055	0.363	0.247	0.311	0.546	0.344
Carlos Lee	4.010	1.084	0.779	0.228	0.005	0.072	0.464	0.153	0.305	0.596	0.313
Giancarlo Stanton	3.935	0.953	0.559	0.233	0.003	0.158	0.516	0.129	0.302	1.457	0.312
Greg Dobbs	3.946	1.064	0.779	0.213	0.003	0.068	0.366	0.117	0.195	0.848	0.300
John Buck	3.709	0.801	0.548	0.194	0.001	0.057	0.281	0.093	0.299	1.273	0.265
Donovan Solano	3.674	0.897	0.633	0.202	0.010	0.051	0.278	0.115	0.218	0.961	0.281
Pitchers Spot	3.666	0.388	0.315	0.063	0.001	0.009	0.114	0.071	0.126	2.082	0.125
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.243	1.282	0.867	0.270	0.056	0.089	0.349	0.410	0.397	0.486	0.358
Mark Ellis	4.157	1.198	0.850	0.260	0.020	0.067	0.451	0.274	0.334	0.628	0.332
Matt Kemp	4.080	1.341	0.878	0.282	0.031	0.150	0.611	0.293	0.360	0.788	0.392
Andre Ethier	3.917	1.205	0.782	0.298	0.008	0.117	0.599	0.233	0.448	0.695	0.375
Hanley Ramirez	3.885	1.216	0.798	0.275	0.026	0.117	0.580	0.251	0.349	0.671	0.373
James Loney	3.802	1.173	0.807	0.276	0.006	0.084	0.545	0.205	0.339	0.435	0.359
Luis Cruz	3.789	1.079	0.711	0.287	0.007	0.073	0.495	0.176	0.218	0.587	0.326
A.J. Ellis	3.553	1.003	0.731	0.203	0.008	0.061	0.427	0.148	0.348	0.706	0.331
Pitchers Spot	3.654	0.575	0.466	0.094	0.004	0.011	0.180	0.113	0.151	1.358	0.177

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Nathan Eovaldi	5.880	3.943	1.888	7.100	0.555	95.167	4.050
Heath Bell	0.364	0.325	0.125	0.371	0.022	5.846	3.225
Steven Cishek	0.408	0.404	0.140	0.407	0.023	6.587	2.992
Mike Dunn	0.581	0.558	0.290	0.613	0.049	9.926	3.882
Ryan Webb	0.294	0.216	0.082	0.330	0.014	4.644	3.173
Carlos Zambrano	0.221	0.179	0.105	0.246	0.016	3.740	3.949
Chris Hatcher	0.559	0.440	0.198	0.657	0.066	9.189	4.226
Chad Gaudin	0.318	0.290	0.115	0.348	0.025	5.224	3.466
Dodgers
Chad Billingsley	6.640	7.212	1.579	6.218	0.474	103.292	2.668
Kenley Jansen	0.466	0.805	0.111	0.293	0.033	7.274	1.390
Brandon League	0.379	0.313	0.103	0.380	0.017	5.881	2.943
Ronald Belisario	0.591	0.604	0.166	0.555	0.032	9.268	2.700
Randy Choate	0.238	0.267	0.082	0.211	0.016	3.802	2.855
Rubby De La Rosa	0.141	0.143	0.040	0.133	0.011	2.215	3.050
Scott Elbert	0.535	0.573	0.170	0.503	0.040	8.542	2.986
Jamey Wright	0.274	0.259	0.104	0.265	0.013	4.420	3.040

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N.Eovaldi vs C.Billingsley

July 22nd Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BAL	CLE	Zach Britton vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	56.43%	51.82%	- - -
COL	SD	Chris Friedrich vs Ross Ohlendorf	COL	50.25%	49.19%	- - -
MIL	CIN	Michael Fiers vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	57.17%	56.08%	- - -
MIN	KC	Samuel Deduno vs Jeremy Guthrie	KC	56.04%	56.26%	- - -
SEA	TB	Blake Beavan vs Matt Moore	TB	63.96%	59.24%	- - -
SF	PHI	Barry Zito vs Joe Blanton	PHI	58.07%	60.12%	- - -
TEX	LAA	Matt Harrison vs Dan Haren	TEX	50.25%	49.97%	- - -
TOR	BOS	Henderson Alvarez vs Jon Lester	BOS	62.62%	65.84%	- - -
CHA	DET	Phil Humber vs Jacob Turner	DET	52.27%	57.64%	- - -
LAN	NYN	Nathan Eovaldi vs John Niese	NYN	59.43%	64.66%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Jair Jurrjens vs Ross Detwiler	WAS	55.46%	57.77%	- - -
FLA	PIT	Anibal Sanchez vs Jeff Karstens	PIT	53.60%	52.03%	- - -
CHN	STL	Travis Wood vs Lance Lynn	STL	65.64%	73.59%	- - -
NYA	OAK	C.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	62.89%	58.60%	- - -
HOU	ARI	Jordan Lyles vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	67.21%	66.49%	- - -

Today's Pitching Matchups

Previous Day: -2.8 units on ML
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

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July 16th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
ARI	CIN	Wade Miley vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	55.26%	55.98%	- - -
CHA	BOS	Dylan Axelrod vs Aaron Cook	BOS	55.26%	53.11%	CHA, 0.6u
CLE	TB	Zach McAllister vs Alex Cobb	TB	56.24%	55.12%	CLE, 0.3u
HOU	SD	J.A. Happ vs Kip Wells	SD	53.60%	51.20%	- - -
PHI	LAN	Joe Blanton vs Nathan Eovaldi	PHI	51.34%	52.44%	- - -
SEA	KC	Jason Vargas vs Jonathan Sanchez	KC	51.57%	54.88%	KC, 1.2u
LAA	DET	Ervin Santana vs Rick Porcello	DET	53.16%	56.33%	DET, 1.0u
TOR	NYA	Henderson Alvarez vs Phil Hughes	NYA	63.03%	59.77%	TOR, 0.8u
WAS	FLA	Edwin Jackson vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	50.74%	50.02%	- - -
BAL	MIN	Chris Tillman vs Scott Diamond	MIN	54.02%	55.25%	MIN, 0.2u
STL	MIL	Lance Lynn vs Michael Fiers	MIL	52.27%	52.96%	- - -
PIT	COL	Jeff Karstens vs Jeff Francis	COL	53.81%	49.18%	PIT, 1.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
STL vs MIL, Under 8.5 +100, 1.5 units
HOU vs SD, Over 7 +105, 0.5 units
CLE vs TB, Under 8.5 +100, 1.5 units

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ML ROI: 3.27%

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July 5th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Jake Arrieta vs Garrett Richards	LAA	59.60%	55.44%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Matt Garza vs Mike Minor	ATL	55.06%	63.06%	TBD
CIN	SD	Mat Latos vs Edinson Volquez	CIN	56.99%	55.57%	TBD
TB	CLE	Jeremy Hellickson vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	51.34%	60.65%	TBD
TEX	CHA	Matt Harrison vs Jose Quintana	TEX	56.04%	56.98%	TBD
MIN	DET	Scott Diamond vs Rick Porcello	DET	58.25%	56.15%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Mark Buehrle vs Michael Fiers	MIL	55.26%	54.92%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Bud Norris vs Jeff Karstens	PIT	57.17%	52.65%	TBD
SF	WAS	Matt Cain vs Ross Detwiler	SF	54.02%	54.98%	TBD
KC	TOR	Luke Hochevar vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	56.43%	46.67%	TBD
PHI	NYN	Cole Hamels vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	55.46%	50.89%	TBD
COL	STL	Chris Friedrich vs Lance Lynn	STL	65.64%	63.73%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Nathan Eovaldi vs Wade Miley	ARI	61.83%	64.75%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

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June 13th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Bet Units
LAA	LAN	C.J. Wilson vs Nathan Eovaldi	LAA	57.36%	56.70%	---
ARI	TEX	Wade Miley vs Matt Harrison	TEX	63.03%	63.39%	---
CLE	CIN	Derek Lowe vs Mat Latos	CIN	OFF	55.27%	---
MIL	KC	Randy Wolf vs Luke Hochevar	KC	51.57%	58.27%	KC, 1.2
NYA	ATL	Hiroki Kuroda vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.94%	60.23%	ATL, 1.3
NYN	TB	R.A. Dickey vs David Price	TB	60.40%	57.30%	NYN, 0.4
WAS	TOR	Stephen Strasburg vs Kyle Drabek	WAS	57.72%	60.81%	WAS, 0.6
PIT	BAL	Kevin Correia vs Brian Matusz	BAL	55.65%	62.50%	BAL, 1.3
BOS	FLA	Felix Doubront vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	51.34%	55.62%	FLA, 0.7
DET	CHN	Rick Porcello vs Matt Garza	CHN	52.49%	50.36%	DET, 0.3
PHI	MIN	Cole Hamels vs P.J. Walters	PHI	59.92%	56.44%	MIN, 0.5
CHA	STL	Jake Peavy vs Lance Lynn	STL	53.38%	60.80%	---
OAK	COL	Tom Milone vs Josh Outman	COL	OFF	61.01%	---
SD	SEA	Jason Marquis vs Hector Noesi	SEA	58.93%	53.18%	SD, 0.8
HOU	SF	J.A. Happ vs Matt Cain	SF	67.11%	63.95%	HOU, 0.4

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

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June 8th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Bet Units
DET	CIN	Rick Porcello vs Mat Latos	CIN	57.36%	58.08%	---
HOU	CHA	Wandy Rodriguez vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	57.17%	57.21%	---
TOR	ATL	Kyle Drabek vs Brandon Beachy	ATL	62.34%	66.53%	---
WAS	BOS	Stephen Strasburg vs Felix Doubront	WAS	50.74%	52.56%	---
KC	PIT	Luke Hochevar vs Erik Bedard	PIT	57.36%	51.51%	---
NYN	NYA	Johan Santana vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	55.85%	50.62%	---
PHI	BAL	Joe Blanton vs Jake Arrieta	BAL	54.44%	56.35%	---
TB	FLA	Jeremy Hellickson vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	54.02%	57.29%	---
CHN	MIN	Travis Wood vs P.J. Walters	MIN	55.06%	55.95%	---
SD	MIL	Edinson Volquez vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	59.76%	58.11%	---
CLE	STL	Josh Tomlin vs Jake Westbrook	STL	58.59%	54.36%	---
LAA	COL	C.J. Wilson vs Alex White	LAA	56.43%	NA	---
OAK	ARI	Tom Milone vs Daniel Hudson	ARI	58.76%	55.60%	---
LAN	SEA	Nathan Eovaldi vs Kevin Millwood	SEA	51.10%	55.47%	---
TEX	SF	Matt Harrison vs Barry Zito	TEX	55.85%	59.41%	---

Thursday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been a slightly down day. Interleague play starts back up. Let's see how good the calibration is.

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June 3rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Unit Bets
ARI	SD	Trevor Cahill vs Eric Stults	ARI	52.94%	49.12%	SD, 1.2
BAL	TB	Jake Arrieta vs Matt Moore	TB	57.17%	52.84%	BAL, 1.3
MIN	CLE	Scott Diamond vs Justin Masterson	CLE	57.72%	53.29%	MIN, 1.3
OAK	KC	Tom Milone vs Vin Mazzaro	KC	55.06%	55.56%	---
SEA	CHA	Kevin Millwood vs Chris Sale	CHA	63.57%	62.04%	SEA, 0.3
TEX	LAA	Matt Harrison vs Dan Haren	LAA	52.27%	52.46%	---
NYA	DET	Phil Hughes vs Justin Verlander	DET	63.03%	62.51%	---
BOS	TOR	Daniel Bard vs Drew Hutchison	TOR	51.10%	56.10%	TOR, 1.7
STL	NYN	Jake Westbrook vs John Niese	STL	50.74%	54.25%	STL, 1.3
ATL	WAS	Tommy Hanson vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	57.36%	66.92%	WAS, 4.1
FLA	PHI	Carlos Zambrano vs Joe Blanton	PHI	50.62%	50.66%	---
CIN	HOU	Bronson Arroyo vs Jordan Lyles	CIN	OFF	54.24%	---
PIT	MIL	James McDonald vs Michael Fiers	MIL	52.49%	47.59%	PIT, 1.6
LAN	COL	Nathan Eovaldi vs Alex White	COL	53.81%	55.83%	COL, 0.6
CHN	SF	Travis Wood vs Barry Zito	SF	58.76%	56.41%	CHN, 0.6

Saturday's Results: -0.1 units
Current ROI: 5.38%

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May 29th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Units
CHA	TB	Phil Humber vs James Shields	TB	60.55%	57.24%	1.0
DET	BOS	Justin Verlander vs Daniel Bard	DET	59.60%	56.25%	1.0
KC	CLE	Wil Smith vs Justin Masterson	CLE	59.60%	55.81%	1.1
MIL	LAN	Michael Fiers vs Nathan Eovaldi	LAN	52.94%	56.08%	1.1
NYA	LAA	Andy Pettitte vs Dan Haren	LAA	55.85%	53.84%	0.5
SEA	TEX	Jason Vargas vs Scott Feldman	TEX	64.85%	65.77%	0.3
STL	ATL	Jake Westbrook vs Randall Delgado	STL	51.10%	48.50%	0.8
SD	CHN	Eric Stults vs Jeff Samardzija	CHN	60.24%	59.77%	0.9
CIN	PIT	Homer Bailey vs Charlie Morton	CIN	53.60%	56.22%	---
BAL	TOR	Jake Arrieta vs Ricky Romero	TOR	57.36%	52.18%	1.7
PHI	NYN	Joe Blanton vs Jeremy Hefner	PHI	51.10%	50.28%	---
WAS	FLA	Edwin Jackson vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	57.36%	59.46%	0.8
OAK	MIN	Jarrod Parker vs Cole DeVries	OAK	50.74%	48.64%	0.3
ARI	SF	Joe Saunders vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	54.02%	60.64%	2.7

Current ROI: 4.65%

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August 17th Simulations

Eovaldi Given Tough Task ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Brewers	N.Eovaldi vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	65.46%	69.19%	MIL 3-1
STL	PIT	Kyle Lohse vs Paul Maholm	STL	TBD	55.054	STL 7-2
TOR	SEA	Brandon Morrow vs Blake Beavan	TOR	TBD	57.995	TBD
NYA	KC	Bartolo Colon vs Bruce Chen	NYA	TBD	59.752	TBD
SF	ATL	Matt Cain vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	TBD	51.988	TBD
NYN	SD	Dillon Gee vs Mat Latos	SD	TBD	61.198	TBD
TB	BOS	David Price vs John Lackey	BOS	TBD	58.813	TBD
FLA	COL	Ricky Nolasco vs Aaron Cook	COL	TBD	61.644	TBD
ARI	PHI	Joe Saunders vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	70.064	TBD
BAL	OAK	Alfredo Simon vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	59.63	TBD
CIN	WAS	Johnny Cueto vs Ross Detwiler	CIN	TBD	54.064	TBD
CHN	HOU	Casey Coleman vs Bud Norris	HOU	TBD	53.405	TBD
CLE	CHA	Fausto Carmona vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	54.314	TBD
MIN	DET	Carl Pavano vs Brad Penny	DET	TBD	53.365	TBD
TEX	LAA	C.J. Wilson vs Ervin Santana	TEX	TBD	57.15	TBD

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August 12th Simulations

Dodgers Hope To Be A Pain In The Astros ...

HummaKavula breaks down the Astros/Dodgers series in a masterful poem over at TBLA.

Oh, there’s a chance, I’ll accept,
but unlikely the Dodgers get swept.
It’s most likely you’ll see
them take two of three
In the battle of who’s more inept.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Dodgers	B.Norris vs N.Eovaldi	Dodgers	TBD	57.11%	LAN 1-0
Angels	Blue Jays	E.Santana vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	TBD	59.12%	TBD
Royals	White Sox	B.Chen vs Z.Stewart	White Sox	TBD	59.64%	TBD
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs A.Simon	Orioles	TBD	50.76%	TBD
Giants	Marlins	M.Cain vs R.Nolasco	Giants	TBD	52.35%	TBD
Cubs	Braves	C.Zambrano vs M.Minor	Braves	TBD	59.86%	TBD
Red Sox	Mariners	J.Lackey vs B.Beavan	Red Sox	TBD	59.66%	TBD
Rangers	Athletics	C.Wilson vs B.McCarthy	Rangers	TBD	54.21%	TBD
Rays	Yankees	D.Price vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	TBD	68.13%	TBD
Padres	Reds	M.Latos vs B.Arroyo	Reds	TBD	51.72%	TBD
Twins	Indians	C.Pavano vs J.Masterson	Indians	TBD	58.06%	TBD
Mets	DBacks	D.Gee vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	TBD	64.52%	TBD
Nationals	Phillies	L.Hernandez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	TBD	69.22%	TBD
Rockies	Cardinals	A.Cook vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	TBD	58.89%	TBD
Pirates	Brewers	P.Maholm vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	TBD	63.95%	TBD

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August 6th Simulations

Captain EO Debuts ...

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Nathan Eovaldi vs Joe Saunders
Favorite: Diamondbacks	ML: -145 +135, 58.33%	Simulator: 59.30%
Vegas Over/Under: 9.0	Over -120	Under +110
Simulator Over/Under: 9.95	Over: 54.51%	Under: 45.49%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #13 LAN 5-3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Marlins	C.Carpenter vs R.Nolasco	Cardinals	55.46%	54.40%	TBD
WAS	COL	Livan Hernandez vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	TBD	59.861	TBD
CIN	CHN	Johnny Cueto vs Carlos Zambrano	CIN	TBD	51.521	TBD
PHI	SF	Cole Hamels vs Matt Cain	PHI	TBD	50.115	TBD
NYA	BOS	C.C. Sabathia vs John Lackey	NYA	TBD	55.417	TBD
ATL	NYN	Tommy Hanson vs John Niese	NYN	TBD	58.359	TBD
MIL	HOU	Chris Narveson vs Brett Myers	MIL	TBD	55.844	TBD
TOR	BAL	Brandon Morrow vs Chris Tillman	TOR	TBD	50.809	TBD
OAK	TB	Brandon McCarthy vs Alex Cobb	TB	TBD	53.47	TBD
SEA	LAA	Blake Beavan vs Tyler Chatwood	LAA	TBD	59.062	TBD
SD	PIT	Cory Luebke vs Paul Maholm	PIT	TBD	50.118	TBD
CLE	TEX	Fausto Carmona vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	71.609	TBD
CHA	MIN	Zach Stewart vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	57.53	TBD
DET	KC	Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy	DET	TBD	62.118	TBD

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