May 23rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	CIN	Tommy Hanson vs Bronson Arroyo	ATL	53.81%	53.72%	TBD
BOS	BAL	Daniel Bard vs Jake Arrieta	BOS	52.04%	42.73%	TBD
DET	CLE	Doug Fister vs Zach McAllister	DET	52.94%	51.21%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Scott Diamond vs Chris Sale	CHA	59.92%	58.74%	TBD
TOR	TB	Ricky Romero vs James Shields	TB	53.38%	53.74%	TBD
NYN	PIT	John Niese vs Charlie Morton	PIT	51.57%	46.32%	TBD
SF	MIL	Barry Zito vs Marco Estrada	MIL	55.26%	57.19%	TBD
LAA	OAK	Jered Weaver vs Jarrod Parker	LAA	59.76%	55.55%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Ted Lilly vs Joe Saunders	ARI	50.74%	52.64%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Scott Feldman vs Kevin Millwood	TEX	59.43%	58.05%	TBD
KC	NYA	Wil Smith vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	Offline	63.13%	TBD
WAS	PHI	Edwin Jackson vs Cole Hamels	PHI	59.92%	59.77%	TBD
COL	FLA	Alex White vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	58.93%	52.54%	TBD
CHN	HOU	Jeff Samardzija vs Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	54.85%	55.35%	TBD
SD	STL	Jeff Suppan vs Lance Lynn	STL	66.89%	64.57%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

Notes: No bets today.

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Diamondbacks Get Worse

Good news for Dodgers and most other NL West fans. The defending 2011 NL West Champion Arizona Diamondbacks have signed a bad pitcher. Joe Saunders signed a one year deal worth $6M. Saunders is barely a replacement level pitcher. His strikeout totals underwhelm. And by underwhelm, I mean they are really really bad. Over the past two years, Saunders has a K/9 of 4.81. Well, maybe he has a really low walk rate to partially make up for it. Hmmmm... his BB/9 over that same period of time is 2.84 which is hardly anything to write home about. Well, maybe he is incredibly talented at forcing hitters to hit the ball on the ground. A quick look shows a GB/FB of 1.23 over that same time period, also nothing special. Those are some pretty bad peripherals. Perhaps not Scott Kazmir bad, but when your top peripheral comparisons are the likes of Brad Bergesen, Mike Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez you are in pretty low territory. This looks like a panic move, the Diamondbacks would've been better off letting their herd of minor league aces fight for the last spot with a couple of low cost NRIs. Don't block them with Joe Saunders who doesn't miss too many starts. Here is the rest of the list (Top 25) of Joe Saunders comparables based on the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats for starters over the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
1	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
2	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
3	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
4	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
5	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
6	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
7	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
8	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
9	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
10	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
11	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
12	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
13	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
14	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
15	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
16	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
17	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
18	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
19	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
20	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
21	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
22	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
23	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
24	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
25	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82

Septemer 28th Simulations

Season Finale ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	T.Lilly vs J.Saunders	DBacks	52.91%	58.93%	LAN 7-5
Cardinals	Astros	C.Carpenter vs B.Myers	Cardinals	TBD	65.81%	TBD
WAS	FLA	Stephen Strasburg vs Chris Volstad	FLA	TBD	52.155	TBD
CHN	SD	Ryan Dempster vs Wade LeBlanc	SD	TBD	51.677	TBD
TEX	LAA	Matt Harrison vs Garrett Richards	TEX	TBD	63.798	TBD
PHI	ATL	Joe Blanton vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	60.159	TBD
COL	SF	Drew Pomeranz vs Matt Cain	SF	TBD	60.155	TBD
Yankees	Rays	TBD vs D.Price	TB	TBD	56.47%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Brandon Morrow vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	55.471	TBD
BOS	BAL	Jon Lester vs Alfredo Simon	BOS	TBD	60.743	TBD
CIN	NYN	Edinson Volquez vs Miguel Batista	NYN	TBD	53.029	TBD
KC	MIN	Bruce Chen vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	51.729	TBD
OAK	SEA	Gio Gonzalez vs Anthony Vasquez	OAK	TBD	57.374	TBD
PIT	MIL	Jeff Locke vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	73.799	TBD
CLE	DET	Zach McAllister vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	63.845	TBD

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September 12th Simulations

Last Call For Playoff-hol ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Saunders vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	53.38%	49.96%	ARI 7-2
Angels	Athletics	J.Pineiro vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	57.72%	62.64%	TBD
Rays	Orioles	J.Niemann vs Z.Britton	Rays	54.23%	40.52%	TBD
Cardinals	Pirates	K.Lohse vs B.Lincoln	Cardinals	54.85%	58.74%	TBD
Padres	Giants	A.Harang vs E.Surkamp	Giants	57.36%	57.31%	TBD
Phillies	Astros	R.Oswalt vs B.Myers	Phillies	62.34%	62.31%	TBD
Marlins	Braves	C.Volstad vs B.Beachy	Braves	67.74%	68.51%	TBD
Cubs	Reds	R.Lopez vs D.Willis	Reds	60.08%	64.78%	TBD
Nats	Mets	R.Detwiler vs R.Dickey	Mets	57.54%	60.77%	TBD
Tigers	White Sox	R.Porcello vs J.Danks	White Sox	52.72%	51.63%	TBD
Yankees	Mariners	P.Hughes vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	51.00%	49.09%	TBD

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August 6th Simulations

Captain EO Debuts ...

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Nathan Eovaldi vs Joe Saunders
Favorite: Diamondbacks	ML: -145 +135, 58.33%	Simulator: 59.30%
Vegas Over/Under: 9.0	Over -120	Under +110
Simulator Over/Under: 9.95	Over: 54.51%	Under: 45.49%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #13 LAN 5-3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Marlins	C.Carpenter vs R.Nolasco	Cardinals	55.46%	54.40%	TBD
WAS	COL	Livan Hernandez vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	TBD	59.861	TBD
CIN	CHN	Johnny Cueto vs Carlos Zambrano	CIN	TBD	51.521	TBD
PHI	SF	Cole Hamels vs Matt Cain	PHI	TBD	50.115	TBD
NYA	BOS	C.C. Sabathia vs John Lackey	NYA	TBD	55.417	TBD
ATL	NYN	Tommy Hanson vs John Niese	NYN	TBD	58.359	TBD
MIL	HOU	Chris Narveson vs Brett Myers	MIL	TBD	55.844	TBD
TOR	BAL	Brandon Morrow vs Chris Tillman	TOR	TBD	50.809	TBD
OAK	TB	Brandon McCarthy vs Alex Cobb	TB	TBD	53.47	TBD
SEA	LAA	Blake Beavan vs Tyler Chatwood	LAA	TBD	59.062	TBD
SD	PIT	Cory Luebke vs Paul Maholm	PIT	TBD	50.118	TBD
CLE	TEX	Fausto Carmona vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	71.609	TBD
CHA	MIN	Zach Stewart vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	57.53	TBD
DET	KC	Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy	DET	TBD	62.118	TBD

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July 31st Simulations

Furcal So Long ...

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
Favorite: Dodgers	ML: -117 +112 53.38%	Simulator: 59.53%
Vegas Over/Under: 7.5	Over +108	Under -118
Simulator Over/Under: 8.29	Over: 51.67%	Under: 48.33%	Result: OVER
Top 5 Most Likely Scores: LAN 3-2, LAN 4-3, LAN 2-1, LAN 5-4, ARI 3-2
Joe Saunders: IP 5.71, SO 3.70, BB 1.87, HR 0.71, FIP 4.50
Rubby De La Rosa: IP 6.00, SO 7.11, BB 2.24, HR 0.54, FIP 3.11
Final Score: #30 ARI 6-3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Phillies	J.Karstens vs V.Worley	Phillies	65.52%	69.07%	TBD
Cubs	Cardinals	R.Dempster vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	58.07%	57.79%	TBD
NYN	WAS	John Niese vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	TBD	51.195	TBD
HOU	MIL	Brett Myers vs Chris Narveson	MIL	TBD	67.312	TBD
SF	CIN	Barry Zito vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	TBD	60.303	TBD
MIN	OAK	Carl Pavano vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	57.101	TBD
TEX	TOR	C.J. Wilson vs Brandon Morrow	TEX	TBD	51.134	TBD
LAA	DET	Jered Weaver vs Justin Verlander	DET	TBD	60.61	TBD
TB	SEA	Jeremy Hellickson vs Jason Vargas	SEA	TBD	51.742	TBD
BOS	CHA	Andrew Miller vs Mark Buehrle	CHA	TBD	51.28	TBD
BAL	NYA	Jake Arrieta vs Freddy Garcia	NYA	TBD	68.333	TBD
KC	CLE	Kyle Davies vs Fausto Carmona	CLE	TBD	56.65	TBD
COL	SD	Juan Nicasio vs Wade LeBlanc	COL	TBD	55.847	TBD
FLA	ATL	Ricky Nolasco vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	TBD	58.744	TBD

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July 15th Simulations

Kershaw's Last Stand ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Kershaw vs J.Saunders	Dodgers	54.65%	57.88%	LAN 6-4
Cardinals	Reds	J.Westbrook vs J.Cueto	Reds	60.24%	53.60%	CIN 6-5
Phillies	Mets	V.Worley vs R.Dickey	Phillies	50.86%	51.99%	PHI 7-2
Royals	Twins	L.Hochevar vs N.Blackburn	Twins	54.65%	60.06%	KC 2-1
Rangers	Mariners	C.Lewis vs D.Fister	Rangers	52.72%	47.45%	TEX 4-0
Marlins	Cubs	R.Nolasco vs R.Dempster	Cubs	52.49%	54.19%	CHN 2-1
Angels	Athletics	D.Haren vs B.McCarthy	Angels	53.60%	46.48%	OAK 5-3
Yankees	Blue Jays	F.Garcia vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	50.62%	50.60%	TOR 7-1
Pirates	Astros	J.Karstens vs B.Myers	Astros	50.86%	53.57%	PIT 4-0
White Sox	Tigers	G.Floyd vs J.Verlander	Tigers	65.22%	65.29%	CHA 8-2
Brewers	Rockies	C.Narveson vs J.Nicasio	Rockies	54.44%	54.95%	COL 4-0
Indians	Orioles	J.Tomlin vs J.Arrieta	Orioles	52.27%	52.40%	CLE 6-5
Nationals	Braves	L.Hernandez vs T.Hudson	Braves	62.89%	57.84%	ATL 11-1
Giants	Padres	T.Lincecum vs D.Moseley	Giants	56.04%	55.04%	SF 6-1
Red Sox	Rays	A.Miller vs D.Price	Rays	58.59%	58.96%	TB 9-6

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May 13th Simulations

Battle of Third Place ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Saunders vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.30%	60.95%	LAN 4-3
Mets	Astros	D.Gee vs B.Norris	Astros	50.62%	56.66%	NYN 6-4
Padres	Rockies	D.Moseley vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	60.86%	70.77%	COL 12-7
Giants	Cubs	M.Bumgarner vs R.Dempster	Giants	50.62%	54.86%	CHN 11-4
Mariners	Indians	D.Fister vs F.Carmona	Indians	61.83%	51.10%	CLE 5-4
Phillies	Braves	C.Hamels vs B.Beachy	Phillies	50.62%	54.93%	PHI 5-4
Blue Jays	Twins	R.Romero vs C.Pavano	Blue Jays	51.10%	50.38%	TOR 2-0
Pirates	Brewers	J.McDonald vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	60.55%	60.01%	MIL 5-2
Red Sox	Yankees	C.Buchholz vs B.Colon	Yankees	53.16%	57.79%	BOS 5-4
Orioles	Rays	J.Guthrie vs J.Hellickson	Rays	58.25%	51.05%	TB 3-0
Royals	Tigers	L.Hochevar vs J.Verlander	Tigers	63.30%	69.40%	DET 3-1
Angels	Rangers	J.Weaver vs A.Ogando	Rangers	51.34%	47.65%	TEX 4-1
Marlins	Nationals	C.Volstad vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	52.72%	56.66%	FLA 6-5
Cardinals	Reds	K.Lohse vs B.Arroyo	Reds	53.81%	42.10%	CIN 6-5
White Sox	Athletics	P.Humber vs B.McCarthy	Athletics	53.16%	64.90%	CHA 4-3

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -4.24%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +7.06%

Pitching Machines