Saturday, February 12, 2011

Minor League Contract Team vs NL Zero to Three Team


In my next series in pitting "theme" teams against one another comes a series of games between the "All Minor League Contract" team and the "NL Zero to Three" team. As you can probably figure out the MiLB Contract team is made up of the best players signed to minor league contracts in 2011. The NL 0-3 team is made up of the best NL players with less than or equal to three years of experience while making close to league minimum. These two themes were created at FanGraphs recently. The MiLB Contract team was created by Dave Cameron in a blog entry here. The NL 0-3 team was created by Jonah Keri and can be found here. Obviously the NL 0-3 team will dominate such a matchup. This is a warmup to the NL 0-3 vs AL 0-3 coming next week. Rosters and results are below.

Lineups
MiLB Contract NL Zero to Three
Pos Name Org Name Pos Org
CF Lastings Milledge CHA CF Andrew McCutchen PIT
LF Laynce Nix WAS LF Logan Morrison FLA
RF Jeremy Hermida CIN RF Jayson Heyward ATL
3B Felipe Lopez TB C Buster Posey SF
1B Casey Kotchman TB 1B Ike Davis NYN
C Gregg Zaun SD 3B Pedro Alvarez PIT
2B Adam Kennedy SEA 2B Neil Walker PIT
SS Adam Everett CLE SS Starlin Castro CHN
SP Pitchers Spot NA SP Pitchers Spot NA

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations...
MiLB Contracts NL Zero to Three
  Name Organization   Name Organization
#1 Freddy Garcia NYY vs Clayton Kershaw LAN
#2 Micah Owings ARI vs Tommy Hanson ATL
#3 J.D. Martin WAS vs Mat Latos SD
#4 Jeff Suppan SF vs Travis Wood CIN
#5 Rodrigo Lopez ATL vs Jaime Garcia STL


Next up... the results

Results
Away Away SP Home Home SP Favorite Win Prob Total Runs
MiLB Contracts Freddy Garcia NL Zero to Three Clayton Kershaw NL Zero to Three 72.75% 7.34
NL Zero to Three Clayton Kershaw MiLB Contracts Freddy Garcia NL Zero to Three 63.34% 7.48
MiLB Contracts Micah Owings NL Zero to Three Tommy Hanson NL Zero to Three 71.54% 7.83
NL Zero to Three Tommy Hanson MiLB Contracts Micah Owings NL Zero to Three 62.99% 7.92
MiLB Contracts J.D. Martin NL Zero to Three Mat Latos NL Zero to Three 73.20% 7.65
NL Zero to Three Mat Latos MiLB Contracts J.D. Martin NL Zero to Three 64.43% 7.78
MiLB Contracts Jeff Suppan NL Zero to Three Travis Wood NL Zero to Three 71.20% 7.92
NL Zero to Three Travis Wood MiLB Contracts Jeff Suppan NL Zero to Three 62.27% 8.01
MiLB Contracts Rodrigo Lopez NL Zero to Three Jaime Garcia NL Zero to Three 72.19% 7.81
NL Zero to Three Jaime Garcia MiLB Contracts Rodrigo Lopez NL Zero to Three 63.30% 7.91


Mean win percentage for the "NL Zero to Three" team is 67.72%. Extrapolated out to a make believe 162 game season of head to head games, the "NL Zero to Three" team would be expected to win an astounding 109.7 games and suffer only 52.3 losses.

Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

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